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If there’s one thing we know for sure about Saturday’s Champions League Final, it’s that both teams will be wearing the color blue.
Beyond that, there is so much unknown about what feels like an absolute toss-up of a match. Especially after Chelsea defeated Manchester City for the second time this season back on May 8th.
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The odds are reflective of that feeling as well. Pep Guardiola’s City are the slightest of favorites (-115) at PointsBet Sportsbook, while Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea are prohibitive underdogs at +360. Meanwhile, a draw is priced at +235. Do note that these prices are only for the first 90 minutes + injury time.
If instead you prefer to play the “to lift the trophy” market, City are -225 favorites with Chelsea +180 underdogs.
A win for the Cityzens would be the club’s first Champions League success -- and the first win in a decade for Guardiola -- while a win for Chelsea would mark the second occasion the club has lifted the trophy, with the last coming in 2011-12.
Also worth noting is this: should City win this match, it will be the second year in a row the eventual winner has finished unbeaten in the UCL. Last season, Bayern Munich played 11 and won 11. Thus far, City have played 12, won 11 and drawn once -- ironically, in the exact stadium the final is about to be played.
Side Betting Analysis
Personally, my first guiding principle for betting this match is that Manchester City are not going to lose outright in 90 minutes.
While I’m personally not betting a side pregame, I’ll be hoping to get in on the Manchester City Moneyline live at +105 or better.
Another option for those of you thinking along the same lines is to take the Draw Moneyline (+235) pregame and get in live on Manchester City at plus-money to ensure a profit, assuming Chelsea doesn’t win the game at the end of regular time.
That said, there is another live scenario I’ll be looking to bet should it occur.
In the event Manchester City concedes the first goal early in the second half, I would love to grab the Manchester City +0.5 goal line live.
Remarkably, in both the Premier League and Champions League this season, City have only conceded the first goal nine times.
On six of those occasions, they came back to rescue at least a point. In the Champions League, it’s a perfect three-for-three -- once against Porto, once against Dortmund and once against PSG -- with City winning all three points each time.
I would hop in as high as -150 if it becomes available, but say Chelsea score in the 50th minute and the City goal line stays at -0.5, it becomes a stay away for me.
Total Betting Analysis
Does anyone else find this total feels a little too easy?
I’ll at least say this - the stats are there to back this game going under 2.5 goals like everyone is expecting.
Tuchel has yet to play a Champions League game featuring more than two goals since arriving at Chelsea, while Guardiola’s City are three of six to under 2.5 in the knockout rounds with the other three landing on three goals.
And yes, three of the last five Champions League Finals have finished under 2.5 goals.
But my memory keeps coming back to last season’s final where everyone was convinced there was a zero percent chance Bayern-PSG would finish under 3.5 goals -- so much so that I witnessed Las Vegas books flip favorites before the game kicked off.
I’m not playing a total, but if you forced me to pick one bet I’d elect for Over 2.25 Goals (-110). If it lands on two, you at least get half your wager back.
But I’m not convinced that Under 2.5 Goals (-155) is as surefire of a winner as that price indicates.
Remember - both EPL meetings between these two teams went over 2.5 goals with one going over 3.5 goals. Not to mention the meeting at the Etihad should have featured another goal if Sergio Ageruo actually tried at his late first-half penalty.
In other words, don’t be surprised if fans are treated to an absolute goal-fest and this match soars over the total. Especially if N’Golo Kante and Edouard Mendy are absentees for Chelsea.
Prop Market Betting Analysis
Kevin De Bruyne is well-rested, playing against his former club and in a position Chelsea aren’t used to seeing him.
Give me Kevin De Bruyne Anytime Goal (+260). The Belgian has scored three goals in the knockout rounds since slotting into the false nine role and registered a goal at Stamford Bridge earlier this season. Including that goal, De Bruyne has now scored in three straight games against the Blues.
I’m also a fan of the price on Riyad Mahrez Anytime Goal (+240). The Algerian international has now scored in three straight Champions League contests, registering both tallies in a 2-0 win against PSG. It’s not a confident play for me like De Bruyne, but you’re getting good value should you choose to play it.
Finally, if you’re uncomfortable with all this City love and prefer a Thomas Tuchel redemption tour, I like the plus-money price you’re getting on Chelsea to Win 1-0, 2-0 or Draw 1-1 (+240). It doesn’t feel like there’s a path to victory for the Blues where they absolutely manhandle City -- plus you incorporate the potential of a draw -- so I like the option of getting two realistic score lines without having to play each individual exact score.
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