Don’t you just hate sports betting sometimes?
Our weekend total plays finished 1-1, but it really should have been a second straight 2-0 week. However, two late garbage time goals in Palace-Villa meant our under was a loser.
But, we cashed the Brighton-Leeds under with utter ease as we turn our attention to Matchday 14 in the midweek.
Which means only one thing - a refreshed pair of total bets across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - PARLAY: Chelsea Team Total Over 1.5 & West Ham-Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
Lady Luck has been on Watford’s side as of late and that luck should run out when Chelsea visit Vicarage Road.
Entering Sunday’s fixture against Leicester City, the Hornets had outperformed their expected goals against number in four consecutive matches. And it caught up with them in a big way at the King Power Stadium where they conceded four goals on nearly 2.5 expected goals against, per infogol.net.
Now they return home to face a Chelsea side that, entering their Sunday meeting with Manchester United, ranked third in shot-creating actions, second in goal-creating actions and third in penalty-area touches, all per fbref.com.
Additionally, Watford have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, which tells me there’s at least one goal in this for Chelsea. But the added bonus for bettors in this parlay leg is that Chelsea have put two past Watford in four straight and five of the last six head-to-head meetings.
Finally, even though Chelsea have overperformed their expected goal metrics on the road this season, they’ve still managed at least two tallies in four of six. The only two times they didn’t? Against Liverpool when they were down a man and against Brentford, who have since proven their defense isn’t as strong as most originally thought.
That brings us to West Ham and Brighton, who play two diametrically opposed styles of football.
I don’t want to lay a price on over 2.5 goals given how strong Brighton have been defensively, but I think there are at least two goals in this match. No side has held the Hammers off the scoresheet at home this campaign and Brighton have only held two sides - Norwich and Brentford - off the board on the road.
But, this is also a Brighton side that has experienced success against West Ham in past meetings. The Seagulls have registered at least one expected goal in four straight and seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings, per fbref.com. Additionally, Graham Potter’s side have scored at least once in all of the last eight and two or more goals in five of eight.
Given West Ham have conceded at least one expected goal in three straight EPL fixtures and could be dealing with some injuries at the back, expect goals from both sides and at least two goals in the match.
Best Bet #2 - Newcastle United/Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals (-120)
This match is, without question, Newcastle’s best chance at FINALLY getting their first win of the Premier League season. And should they accomplish that task, I don’t expect it will be a 1-0 defensive affair.
Even though Newcastle have a poor history against Norwich - they scored once on 1.4 expected in their last two meetings with the Canaries - they have proved a trustworthy goal-scoring threat at St. James’ Park this season.
Only league-leaders Chelsea have held Newcastle off the scoresheet at home this season and the Magpies have scored two or more goals in four of their remaining five home EPL fixtures. Granted, they’ve also scored five on 2.1 expected in their last two home fixtures, but that came against Tottenham and Brentford sides that rank ahead of Norwich in most defensive metrics.
And even though Norwich have kept three Premier League clean sheets this season, they’ve allowed one expected goal or more in two of those fixtures, per fbref.com. Additionally, the Canaries have conceded two or more expected goals in all but one road fixture this campaign, per fbref.com.
At the same time, though, Newcastle have been absolutely dreadful defensively this season. They’ve conceded 16 home goals on 12.5 expected and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Against an invigorated Norwich attack that has either scored or generated 1.0 expected goals in three straight fixtures, I highly doubt Eddie Howe’s side will keep Norwich off the scoreboard.
Plus, Norwich have delivered above-average shot-creating actions and penalty area touches in their last match out against a strong Wolves defense.
For those reasons, I believe there’s at least one goal in this match for both sides. From there, you’re realistically asking for one side to get to two goals in order to cash this ticket.
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