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We kicked this column off in style last week, cashing both plays to put us 2-0.
Joshua Dasilva’s 10th-minute red card helped Newcastle get the three points and us to collect a +195 ticket. Across the other side of London, we have Luke Milvojevic’s left inner thigh to thank for our Double Chance Draw or Burnley -112 play hitting.
This week I have two more Underdogs for you to consider. One to win on the Moneyline and one to Win or Draw in the Double Chance market. All odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Leicester City vs. Leeds United (Saturday, 7:30 AM EST, Live on USA)
In my Jesse Marsch and Leeds Relegation Futures post, I covered everything you needed to know about the Lilywhites’ new manager, what the fans can expect to see on the pitch, and if he will be successful.
To summarize, I think Marsch will turn Leeds around in the short term with his personality, motivational, and team-building skills. Long-term, we won’t be able to judge till next season when he has the preseason to work with the players and fully implement his playing style.
That doesn’t mean we won’t see immediate tactical changes as Marsch attempts to tighten up a defense who have conceded 23 goals in their last seven outings. In Thursday’s press conference, he laid out his initial changes saying:
“The adjustment of tactics is my number one priority, getting away from the man-marking and not exposing us on transition as much, but this group is remarkable, it gives me big hope.”
It sounds to me the backline will sit deeper and be less adventurous to prevent being caught on the counter. I think Leeds fans will welcome these changes with open arms, but they do not affect my reasons for backing them as this week’s underdog to win.
I’m a great believer in the “new manager bounce” under the right circumstances, and this is a near-perfect situation. Leeds are a good side who, on their day, can go toe to toe with any opponent. Marsch’s arrival and the possibility of star striker Patrick Bamford being on the bench if he passes a late fitness test will boost the whole club. Also, Marsch revealed Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper are “getting closer and closer” in Thursday’s press conference.
Their opponents Leicester City have been poor in the Premier League (PL) in 2022, winning one, drawing two, losing three, and dealing with a defensive injury crisis.
Timothy Castagne, Jonny Evans, James Justin, Wesley Fofana, and Ryan Bertrand are all ruled out with injury leaving only Luke Thomas, Çaglar Söyüncü, Ricardo Pereira, and Jannik Vestergaard available. Midfielder Daniel Amartey and winger Marc Albrighton have been deputizing when needed.
I’m backing Marsch to make an immediate impact and inspire his new players to victory.
Betting Tip: Leeds United Moneyline +300
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Tottenham vs. Everton (Monday, 3 PM EST, Live on USA)
In my first betting post for NBC Sports Edge, I tipped Tottenham to finish in the Top 4, and on current form, that’s looking like a bust. Antonio Conte’s side have lost four of their last six in the PL and beaten Manchester City 3-2 and Leeds United 4-0 in the other two.
It’s genuinely mindboggling how inconsistent their performances have been, and I’m confident we can take advantage, backing Everton in the Double Chance market to Win or Draw. The Toffees played really well last weekend against Manchester City and were unfortunate not to get a point. Tiredness and a shocking VAR decision cost them late in the game.
One of the main reasons for their improved performance was Allan, Abdoulaye Doucouré, and Donny van de Beek (VDB). This was the first match Frank Lampard could start these three in central midfield. They worked tirelessly, stifling Pep Guardiola’s side and creating some good counter-attacking opportunities.
City could only break the deadlock 11 minutes after VDB limped off the pitch with cramp. If you’re worried about his exclusion from Thursday’s confidence-boosting 2-0 win over Boreham Wood in the FA Cup, it was due to being cup-tied after representing Manchester United in the Third Round.
Their opponent Spurs have struggled to break down defensively well-organized teams all season and failed to score in recent matches against Wolves and Burnley despite generating 2.5 xG from 29 attempts on goal per FBREF.com.
Everton sat deep against City, and if they approach this game in the same manner with Allan, Doucouré, and VDB bossing the middle of the pitch, I’m confident they will get something.
Betting Tip: Double Chance Draw or Everton +135
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