If the EPL Outright odds are indicative of how the season plays out, there are two realistic scenarios.
The first is that Manchester City and Pep Guardiola win their second straight domestic crown and third in four years.
[[ad:athena]]
At PointsBet Sportsbook, that’s the favored outcome. The Cityzens are -150 favorites to lift the trophy, a 60 percent implied probability.
The second scenario -- and perhaps the more eventful one -- is that City don’t win the title. Should that occur, Liverpool (+500), Chelsea (+500) and Manchester United (+800) are the next favorites to be crowned champions of England. As for traditional Big Six powers Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, they’re priced at +4000 and +5000, respectively.
Despite listing City atop my power ratings heading into the 2021-22 season, it’s my personal philosophy never to lay a price in the futures market. There’s simply too much variance across a 38-game season that could lead to a different outcome.
Odds to win English Premier League (via PointsBet)
-150: Manchester City
+500: Chelsea, Liverpool
+800: Manchester United
+4000: Tottenham Hotspur
+5000: Arsenal, Leicester City
+9000: Everton
+12500: Leeds United
+15000: Aston Villa, West Ham United
+20000: Brighton & Hove Albion, Wolves
+30000: Newcastle, Southampton
+50000: Brentford, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Norwich City, Watford
So if you can get the Cityzens at +100 or better live during the season, take it. Otherwise, here are my best futures bets for the 2021-22 Premier League season.
Futures Play #1 - Liverpool (+500)
Following seasons of 97 and 99 points, the cliff fell out from under Liverpool last season in a way no one could predict.
An injury-ravaged campaign saw the Reds finish with 69 points, their lowest output since the 2015-16 season, when they grabbed 60 points.
However, there were some positives to take from last season.
There was the 10-match unbeaten run (8W-2D) to close out the season. There was the incredibly impressive road record against the Big Six (5W-1D). There was the fact that through the first 16 matches, Liverpool were the best team in the EPL.
Finally, even though Liverpool were forced to play with inexperienced center-halves in a majority of matches, they still conceded the fourth-fewest goals all season. The returns of Virgil Van Dijk and Joel Matip, as well as the signing of Ibrahima Konate, should see that ranking improve.
A fully healthy team should positively regress in additional metrics as well. With fans in the stands, I certainly don’t expect Liverpool to lose six games at home and post five of their nine losses against bottom-half opposition.
Further, I believe their schedule informs a strong, bounce-back campaign. On only five occasions do they play in back-to-back weeks against teams I have power-rated in the top-half.
Plus, arguably their two most important matches -- at home against Chelsea and Man City -- come early in the season. The City fixture will be on the heels of a Champions League matchday, but a fully healthy Liverpool side should win key points in those matches to establish themselves as genuine title contenders.
The last aspect I’m considering with this play is that the title window could be closing for Liverpool. All of the following players -- Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mané, van Dijk, Fabinho and Jordan Henderson -- have contracts expiring in 2023. That means any number of those players could be sold next summer to avoid another Gini Wijnaldum situation.
The collective market value of those six players comes out to $407 million, per Transfermarkt. Should any of those six refuse an extension, Liverpool would be smart to cash out.
For now, though, expect a return-to-form for Liverpool from last year. Whether they come out on top is still to be determined, but +500 is a solid price for the only team not named City to win a title in the last four seasons.
Futures Play #2 - A Manchester United Live Bet
There are a few conditions attached to this future play, so stay with me for a second.
First is that United must retain both Paul PogBa and Anthony Martial, otherwise I’m no longer interested.
Second is that by the conclusion of Matchday Seven against Everton, United must have dropped no fewer than six points total and no more than two at home. If they accomplish that feat, I’d take them at +750 or better.
Historically, the thing preventing the Red Devils from staking a claim for the title are their stumbles out of the gate.
Last season, United were 2-1-3 through six matches and 10th in the table. In 2019-20, they were 2-2-2 through six matches and 8th in the table. Finally, in 2018-19, they were 3-1-3 through seven matches and 10th in the table.
Are you sensing a theme here?
I really want to believe in the signings they’ve made this summer. Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane have the ability to transform this team into a genuine title challenger, but only if they resolve their early season struggles.
However, given their brutally tough four-match stretch in October and November -- at Leicester, vs. Liverpool, at Tottenham, vs. Man City -- I need to see United are capable of winning matches they’re supposed to if I have any hope they have a chance at winning the title.
If you want to wait out those four matches, the live betting metrics change slightly for me. Three of the last four Premier League winners have been leading the league at that point. The fourth and final winner has been within three points of the lead.
The festive period appears (knocks on wood) quite easy for United, as I have them facing six straight matches against teams power rated 10th or worse (Burnley is the only real fringe side). So, if United can make it through that four-match gauntlet and be within three points of the lead, I’d take them at +500 or better.
Remember that United bring a 26-match road unbeaten run into this season. Plus, they should improve at home with (stop me if you’ve heard this next part) the return of fans. In two of the last three seasons, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer‘s squad have been the sixth-best home team, which won’t win them a title.
Every team that has won the title in the last four seasons has possessed the best home record. While it’s a big ask, United need sizable improvement at home if they’re to dethrone their neighbors.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
