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We are on to the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, and we have some sensational matchups on the card. I’ve got a couple of ways to get in on the fun and will share them now.
Rafael Nadal (-250) vs. Nick Kyrgios (+195)
This storied rivalry will write another chapter on Thursday, when the two battle it out for a spot in the semifinal state of the year’s first Masters 1000. Kyrgios famously won the first-ever meeting back in 2014 at Wimbledon, and picked up two more wins at the 2017 Cincinnati Masters and in Acapulco in a thrilling three-setter down in Acapulco three years ago.
So, we know Kyrgios can take out Nadal. He’s done so in three of the eight meetings between the two. The difference here, for once is that Kyrgios’ fitness should be in a great place. The Australian has been a victim of his small schedule in the last couple of years, often running out of gas by this stage of the tournament. He had the fortunate break of advancing on a walkover in the quarters when Jannik Sinner had to withdraw due to an illness, and his doubles team is out of the competition. That means he’s going to be incredibly well-rested for this.
We know a fresh Kyrgios is capable of beating almost anyone. He managed to take out a top-10 player in Casper Ruud rather academically, and showed that all he needs is one look into a service game to win a set. Nadal has been dealing with a bit of a foot issue here and wasn’t serving convincingly enough against Reilly Opelka.
I think this one should be worth watching, and I’ll back Kyrgios to keep things tight.
Edge: Kyrgios +3.5 Games
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Carlos Alcaraz (-271) vs. Cameron Norrie (+205)
You’d never know it based on looking at him, but Cameron Norrie does indeed get tired. Though his match fitness is probably the best on tour, he does tend to fade at times in matches, and we started to see a glimpse of it on Wednesday when he played Jenson Brooksby.
Alcaraz has yet to drop a set here and I think he will prove to simply have too much power for Norrie. We saw an injection of pace give Norrie fits against Nikoloz Basilashvili, and there’s just something to be said for the fact that Alcaraz can hit through anyone on tour. He should work on Norrie’s weaker backhand wing here and produce winners. If Brooksby could do it on Wednesday with inferior power, Alcaraz can certainly do it here.
Alcaraz can beat anyone on tour the way he is playing — and beat them in short order. As we’ve seen, the only way to out-last him is likely hitting through him, which Norrie can not do. If Alcaraz was able to beat Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2, 6-0 — a player who gets every ball back — he will crush Norrie.
Edge: Alcaraz -3.5 Games
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