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After two exciting games on Tuesday night, the WNBA is running it back tonight with another set of semifinals matchups at 8:00 and 10:00 pm ET. The Connecticut Sun look to avenge a Game 1 home loss to the Chicago Sky before the Phoenix Mercury try to even the series in Las Vegas against the Aces.
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky
The Chicago Sky won an exhilarating double-overtime match on Tuesday that had fans on the edge of their seats throughout most of the game and featured 14 lead changes. The Sky covered as +7.5 underdogs on the spread and cashed the +320 money line odds. There are a few reasons why I think Connecticut is well-equipped to win Game 2 and even the series at 1-1, and it starts with slowing down the tempo.
The main reason for Chicago’s success in Game 1 was the team’s ability to dictate the pace of the game. Connecticut played at the league’s slowest pace this season at only 90.96, and Chicago, the third-fastest team in pace this year, pushed the tempo in Game 1. Connecticut’s pace was 94.56 on Tuesday, faster than 28 of the team’s 32 regular season games. As a result, the score exceeded the pregame total of 154.5 by 41.5 points. This isn’t just due to extra time, as the over hit well before the end of regulation.
Courtney Vandersloot had a historic Game 1 against Connecticut with the second playoff triple-double in league history, including a WNBA playoff record 18 assists to go along with 12 points, 10 rebounds, four steals and two blocks. Vandersloot led the league in assists for a fifth consecutive season this year and remains one of the premier point guards in the game at 32 years old.
The Sky’s leading scorer this season was Kahleah Copper and she typically drove the team’s performance as Chicago went 10-5 when Copper shot at least 50% from the field compared to 6-11 when Copper shot below 50% in the regular season. Connecticut effectively limited Copper in half-court offense during Game 1, as she shot only 41.7% and scored 0.438 PPP on 16 half-court possessions. Copper played well in transition (1.2 PPP), but her inefficient half-court offense bodes well for Connecticut’s chances if the Sun defense regains the form that held opponents to the second-fewest fast-break points per game this season.
Another factor leading to Chicago’s victory was some shaky free throw shooting for Connecticut. The Sun missed nine free throws in the game while the Sky only missed four. Chicago led the league in free throw percentage this season, so the Sky’s hot shooting from the line should continue, but Sun fans should be encouraged to see Connecticut at the line 31 times in Game 1 after averaging 17.7 free throw attempts in the regular season.
Connecticut’s regular season success was mostly attributed to the team’s dominant defense, but the Sun showed an ability to control the offensive glass against the Sky with three players posting double-doubles. The Sun blew past their league-leading average of 13.6 second chance points with 20 in this game, including nine from Brionna Jones alone. Jones also scored 18 points in the paint on her way to a 22-10 double-double and four steals.
The Connecticut frontcourt of Jones and Jones grabbed five offensive boards apiece, and Jonquel added a double-double of her own with 26 points and 11 boards. This team is run through the frontcourt, so the Sun’s blueprint for Game 2 starts with playing through the Joneses.
Finally, the Sun should improve as the team shakes off the rust and converts on the shots they made all season. DeWanna Bonner was the third Sun player with double-digit rebounds but only shot 29.4% from the field with four turnovers, which could be a product of rust after Connecticut played for the first time in nine days on Tuesday.
All-Defensive Team guards Briann January and Jasmine Thomas should also make a larger impact in Game 2 since January dealt with foul trouble and Thomas shot an uncharacteristic 11.1% from the field in the first playoff outing. While the Sun only shot 29.4% from beyond the arc, the interior scoring is most likely to see positive regression heading into Game 2.
Connecticut shot just 37.8% from the field after earning a top-five field goal percentage in the regular season. The reason for this poor showing was an inefficient night at the rim, a surprising outcome for a team that ranked fourth in the league for average points in the paint (PITP) during the regular season. Despite Connecticut holding opponents to the fewest points in the paint and facing Chicago’s 11th-ranked defense for PITP, the Sun missed plenty of good looks near the basket. This chart from WNBA.com shows each team’s shooting efficiency plotted against distance from the basket, and Connecticut’s efficiency from short range was abnormally low in Game 1.
Even with poor efficiency inside, Connecticut tied the team’s second-most points scored at the rim (51) and got a lot of good looks in the paint. This high volume is extremely promising, and the efficiency should return in Game 2. The team allowed Chicago to score 55 points at the rim, the highest opposing total allowed at the rim all season for the Sun, and I expect Connecticut to bounce back tonight with a victory.
The spread of +7.5 is a little too much for me to bet on Connecticut in this game, but PointsBet Sportsbook just opened a new market with WNBA Series Prices and Connecticut is listed at just -135 to win the series with the Sky at +110. I think that’s where the value lies, and I think it starts tonight with a Game 2 win.
EDGE: Connecticut Sun Series Price -135
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Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury covered the +6.5 spread but lost to the Aces on Tuesday, and PointsBet Sportsbook set the spread at +6.5 again with a total of 171 tonight. The series price line is listed at +450 for the Mercury and -625 for the Aces after Game 1.
Phoenix controlled the game in the first quarter, but Las Vegas stormed back after shaking off the rust and never trailed in the final 18 minutes of Game 1.
Kelsey Plum took over for Las Vegas in the second half with 20 of her 25 points coming after the intermission. Plum scored half of the team’s 22 second chance points and also drilled three of her seven three-point attempts. The favorite for Sixth Woman of the Year has scored at least 20 points in six of her last seven games, including each of her last four outings.
Las Vegas shot the fewest three-pointers among all WNBA squads during the regular season but drained nine of 19 attempts from beyond the arc on Tuesday. Riquna Williams scored a game-high 26 points and spurred the three-point success by shooting four of nine from deep in Game 1. Williams led all players with at least 50 offensive possessions in efficiency this season at 1.136 PPP.
Despite a strong Game 1 performance from Las Vegas, I think Phoenix can keep it close in Game 2. I expect the three-point shooting to regress closer to each team’s average in tonight’s game after Phoenix made only 33.3% of shots from beyond the arc. The Mercury averaged the fifth-most made three-pointers this season while the Aces ranked second-to-last in made threes per game. In Game 1, Las Vegas paced the Mercury in efficiency on both unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (2.13 to 1.13 PPP) and contested catch-and-shoot jump shots (1.44 to 0.67 PPP) by a significant margin.
In my series preview, I noted that short jump shots will be a key to this series for Las Vegas since they led the league in frequency of jumpers under 17 feet and Phoenix struggled to defend those shots. Game 1 showed that the Mercury were able to defend the Aces in that area, holding Las Vegas to only 0.444 PPP on jump shots from inside 17 feet.
Phoenix led the league in isolation efficiency during the regular season but only ran one isolation play on offense against the league’s fourth-worst isolation defense, so that’s another easy adjustment for the Mercury to make in Game 2.
The most encouraging sign for Phoenix was the way Las Vegas decided to cover Brittney Griner. Griner leads all players with at least two attempts per game in field goal percentage on shots from the restricted area, making nearly 86% of her shots from inside during the playoffs. Griner is at her best against single coverage, so Las Vegas may be in danger after assigning single coverage to seven of Griner’s eight post-ups in Game 1. As the chart below indicates, Griner did most of her post-up work against single-coverage this season and her efficiency plummeted when defenses brought hard double-teams.
Griner scored 24 points on 62.5% shooting from the field in Game 1. Unless Vegas adjusts by sending more double-teams, I’ll bet on more of the same for Griner in tonight’s matchup. My best bet of the night is the Mercury spread at +6.5 at PointsBet Sportsbook.
EDGE: Phoenix Mercury +6.5 -110
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