This week’s race: Federated Auto Parts 400
Traditional Name: Capital City 400
Other Notable Names: Pontiac Excitement 400, Chevy American Revolution 400, Crown Royal 400, Capital City 400 (historically the name of the fall race), Toyota Owners 400
There is not a significant difference between spring and fall on most tracks that host two races; Richmond is a notable exception. While the track conditions are not noticeably dissimilar, the simple fact of the Federated Auto Parts 400 being the final regular season race makes a huge difference. The effect of running strong is much more immediate in this race than it was for the Toyota Owners 400.
There is one more chance to make the Chase and that alters strategy and the intensity level. It also creates some bizarre situations like the one three years ago when Clint Bowyer allegedly spun intentionally to alter the finish of the Federated Auto Parts 400.
All bets are on the table and it’s time to roll the dice.
10 best drivers at Richmond
Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Jeff Gordon
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 5.50
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 45 attempts
This will be a great opportunity for the No. 24 to show if they are going to be a championship caliber team. If they cannot run well on a short track where they have three runner-up finishes in the past six races and another third back in 2011, there is not a lot of hope for them on unrestricted, intermediate speedways later this season.
2. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 10.7 in 29 attempts
Harvick’s old stats are not nearly as important as his new ones. He entered this race last year as an inconsistent performer with two victories and no other top-fives in his most recent eight Richmond races. He has not won in the last two starts, but he has back-to-back top-fives that includes a runner-up this spring. Fantasy players will give up a spot or two for predictability.
3. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 11.2 in 27 attempts
Newman is the king of consistency and Richmond mirrors many of his efforts. His last eight races on this Virginia short track have produced a sweep of the top 15, but only one top-five. Fantasy owners should look for another result in the sixth- to 14th-place range and plan accordingly.
4. Joey Logano
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 11.17
Career avg. finish: 14.6 in 13 attempts
Logano’s Richmond fate improved considerably when he joined Joe Gibbs Racing. In their first outing together, Logano finished third in the Toyota Owners 400. They won that race the following year and finished fifth this spring. His Federated Auto Parts 400s have not been quite as productive, the he has a sixth last year to recommend him.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (tied with Busch)
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 32 attempts
Earnhardt is strong at Richmond, but it is difficult to imagine him contending for victory this week. He finished second in the 2012 Capital City 400 and won that fall. He lost a lap in the Federated Auto Parts 400 and finished 14th, which seems to have stalled his momentum because Earnhardt has not scored a top-five since.
5. Kurt Busch (tied with Earnhardt)
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 16.6 in 29 attempts
When a driver scores top-10s for both minimally-funded and marquee teams, that suggests he has a knack for a race track. Busch swept the top 10 for Barney Visser in 2013 and scored two more for Stewart-Haas Racing. If fantasy owners need more proof, there is also the little matter of his Toyota Owners 400 victory this spring.
7. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 11.83
Career avg. finish: 16.0 in 31 attempts
Kenseth would be much higher on the list if not for an accident last fall. He slapped the wall hard just past the quarter mark and lost 70 laps making repairs. If not for that 41st-place finish, however, he would have an average of about sixth and that would place him second to Gordon.
8. Jamie McMurray
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 12.17
Career avg. finish: 20.6 in 25 attempts
Six-race averages are manually-imposed to allow fantasy owners to see enough recent history to make informed decisions, but that is not the only statistical grouping that has to be considered. If one looks at only the past four Richmond races for McMurray, his effort is much more impressive with a sweep of the top-15 and an average of 6.3 that would place him near the top of this ranking.
9. Carl Edwards
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 14.1 in 22 attempts
During the past six races, Edwards has been batting 0.500 in regard to top-10s. He won the 2013 Federated Auto Parts 400 and finished sixth and ninth in the spring races that surrounded that victory. His other three races in the past six have been outside the top 15. With momentum on his side, he should easily climb back into the top 10.
10. Kyle Larson
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 13.00 (3 starts)
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 3 attempts
Larson has not yet earned a top-10 at Richmond, but that does not mean this has not been a good track for him. His worst finish was a 16th in his first start there, which probably would have been much better if he had not been spun by Bowyer on the first lap after leading the field to green. He almost cracked that mark with an 11th last fall and 12th this spring. He has been an all or nothing racer, however, and could go either way Saturday night.
Others of Note
11. Brad KeselowskiLast six races average finish at Richmond: 13.17
Career avg. finish: 16.9 in 12 attempts
Keselowski misses the top-10 this week because of a 33rd in the 2013 Toyota Owners 400. Two 17th-place finishes in the past six races has not helped either, but the No. 2 team is more than capable of running well. Last fall’s victory in this race and a fourth that spring prove as much.
15. Martin Truex Jr.
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 15.00
Career avg. finish: 21.4 in 19 attempts
Truex’s most important races for this week’s handicap are the most recent ones. Two of his three races in the No. 78 ended in 10th-place finishes. The other was a 25th in this race last year. With a victory to his credit, he is locked into the Chase and he has one more opportunity to experiment before the playoffs.
17. Paul Menard
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 16.33
Career avg. finish: 23.5 in 17 attempts
Menard did not make very many friends last week at Darlington Raceway. He bumped into the back of Justin Allgaier and David Ragan, which caused both of those drivers to wreck. Richmond is often a place where retribution occurs. Menard needs to watch out the front and back glass to insure that he maintains his position in the points.
19. Jimmie Johnson
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 18.00
Career avg. finish: 17.0 in 27 attempts
Back-to-back disappointing finishes in fall 2013/spring 2014 insure that Johnson is not going to be among the top 10, six-race averages for quite some time. He is doing all he can at the moment, however, with an eighth in this race last year and a third this spring.
22. Denny Hamlin
Last six races average finish at Richmond: 20.80
Career avg. finish: 11.1 in 18 attempts
In terms of career average finishes, Richmond ranks sixth among 22 active tracks for Hamlin. NASCAR is a sport about what one has done lately, however, and the Virginia native enters this weekend with four consecutive 20-something results on this three-quarter-miler.
Rank | Driver | 3 Yr Avg Finish | Attempts |
1. | 5.50 | 6 | |
2. | 6.67 | 6 | |
3. | 9.00 | 6 | |
4. | 11.17 | 6 | |
5. tie | 11.67 | 6 | |
5. tie | 11.67 | 6 | |
7. | 11.83 | 6 | |
8. | 12.17 | 6 | |
9. | 12.33 | 6 | |
10. | 13.00 | 3 | |
| |||
11. | 13.17 | 6 | |
12. | 13.83 | 6 | |
13. | 14.00 | 6 | |
14. | 14.20 | 5 | |
15. | 15.00 | 6 | |
16. | 15.20 | 5 | |
17. | 16.33 | 6 | |
18. | 16.83 | 6 | |
19. | 18.00 | 6 | |
20. | 18.67 | 6 | |
21. | 20.60 | 5 | |
22. | 20.80 | 5 | |
23. | 22.00 | 2 | |
24. | 22.33 | 3 | |
25. | 23.00 | 2 | |
26. | 23.60 | 5 | |
27. | 24.67 | 3 | |
28. | 26.80 | 5 | |
29. | 26.83 | 6 | |
30. | 27.33 | 6 | |
31. | 27.50 | 6 | |
32. | 27.83 | 6 | |
33. | 32.67 | 3 | |
34. | 33.40 | 5 | |
35. | 34.33 | 3 | |
36. | 35.67 | 3 | |
37. | 37.00 | 5 | |
38. | 37.33 | 6 | |
39. | JJ Yeley | 39.00 | 6 |
40. | 40.50 | 4 | |
41. | 41.00 | 2 | |
42. | 41.67 | 4 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 15 (3 times), 2011 Wonderful Pistachios 400, 2009 Crown Royal Russ Friedman 400, 2003 Pontiac Excitement 400Fewest caution flags: 3 (5 times) 2010 Air Guard 400, 1997 Exide Batteries NASCAR 400, 1997 Pontiac Excitement 400, 1993 Pontiac Excitement 400, 1992 Miller Genuine Draft 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 8.6
Final Caution, last five races:
April 2015: Lap 369 of 400 2-car accident on the backstretch (Sam Hornish Jr./Jeb Burton)
September 2014: Lap 331 of 400: Security (man climbed on top of the fence)
April 2014: Lap 386 of 400: oil on track
September 2013: Lap 394 of 400: 1-car spin in turn three (Clint Bowyer)
April 2013: Lap 396 of 406 (green-white-checkered): 1-car accident in turn three (Denny Hamlin)
Most caution laps: 103, 2002 Pontiac Excitement 400
Fewest caution laps: 12, 1997 Pontiac Excitement 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 52.5
Leading the way
Most leaders: 19, 2004 Chevy American Revolution 400Fewest leaders: 2, 2014 Federated Auto Parts 400
Average number of leaders: 8.0
Most lead changes: 25 (2 times), 1996 Pontiac Excitement 400, 1991 Pontiac Excitement 400
Fewest lead changes: 4, 2008 Crown Royal Dan Lowry 400, 2014 Federated Auto Parts 400
Average number of lead changes: 15.4
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Richmond (starting position):April 2015: Kurt Busch (3)
September 2014: Brad Keselowski (1)
April 2014: Joey Logano (17)
September 2013: Carl Edwards (26)
April 2013: Kevin Harvick (17)
September 2012: Clint Bowyer (4)
Worst starting position for race winner: 31st, Clint Bowyer 2008 Crown Royal 400
A race at Richmond has been won by the pole sitter 6 times and from the front row 10 times in 55 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
Brad Keselowski: 2014 Federated Auto Parts 400
Kyle Busch: 2010 Crown Royal Heath Calhoun 400
Jimmie Johnson: 2007 Chevy Rock & Roll 400
Kasey Kahne: 2005 Chevy American Revolution 400
Active winners at Richmond:
Kyle Busch: 4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 3
Kevin Harvick: 3
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Tony Stewart: 3
Clint Bowyer: 2
Jeff Gordon: 2
Denny Hamlin: 2
Kurt Busch: 2
Carl Edwards: 1
Kasey Kahne: 1
Matt Kenseth: 1
Joey Logano: 1
Ryan Newman: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Top-10 All-time Winners:
Rusty Wallace: 6
Kyle Busch: 4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 3
Kevin Harvick: 3
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Terry Labonte: 3
Tony Stewart: 3
Davey Allison: 2
Clint Bowyer: 2
Kurt Busch: 2
Dale Earnhardt: 2
Jeff Gordon: 2
Denny Hamlin: 2
Ernie Irvan: 2
Dale Jarrett: 2
First time winners at Richmond:
2005: Kasey Kahne, Chevy American Revolution 400
1999: Tony Stewart, Exide NASCAR Select Batteries 400
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Richmond race they started:Matt Kenseth (31)
Kevin Harvick (29)
Ryan Newman (27)
Kyle Busch (20)
Denny Hamlin (18)
Paul Menard (17)
David Ragan (17)
Landon Cassill (10)
Aric Almirola (7)
Danica Patrick (5)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (5)
Justin Allgaier (3)
Michael Annett (3)
Alex Bowman (3)
Austin Dillon (3)
Kyle Larson (3)
Trevor Bayne (1)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)
Chase Elliott (1)
Timmy Hill (1)
Alex Kennedy (1)
Brett Moffitt (1)
Brad Keselowski blew an engine and failed to finish in 2009, but he has been running at the end of 11 races since.
Cole Whitt failed finish his first attempt in 2012, but he has been running at the end of 3 races since.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Denny Hamlin: second (2006)
Ryan Newman: second (2002 – both races)
Kyle Busch: fourth (both 2005 races)
Carl Edwards: sixth (2004)
Jeff Gordon: sixth (1993 and top-10s in next three)
Clint Bowyer: 10th (2006)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10th (1999)
Current Streaks
At RichmondJeff Gordon, four top-10s
Joey Logano, three top-10s
Kevin Harvick, two top-fives
Jamie McMurray, two top-fives
Clint Bowyer, two top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, two top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s
Short tracks
Jimmie Johnson, three top-fives
Kevin Harvick, two second-place finishes
Joey Logano, two top-fives
Clint Bowyer, two top-10s
Short flat tracks
Joey Logano, eight top-10s
Jeff Gordon, six top-10s
Kevin Harvick, five top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
Kurt Busch, two top-10s
In 2015
Brad Keselowski, eight top-10s
Carl Edwards, five top-10s
Kevin Harvick, four top-fives
Joey Logano, four top-10s
Denny Hamlin, three top-fives
Dale Earnhardt Jr., three top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s
