We have a split Saturday with five afternoon games and 10 evening contests. The afternoon is stacked with three of the five best ballparks for hitting. For more information about stadium quality, check out my Factor Grid which provides a few select park factors and an atmosphere rating. A 100 park factor is considered neutral. A 110 park factor is 10 percent above average while a 90 factor is 10 percent below average. If you have questions, shoot me a line on Twitter @BaseballATeam. Weather could affect four games in the Midwest including Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Minnesota. The risk is no higher than 50 percent at any venue, but you should still keep an eye on the sky.
Targeting Coors Field is always an easy, if obvious shortcut to DFS success. Teams score 30 percent more runs than league average in Denver. The next most run friendly stadium is Globe Life Park at just 12 percent above average. Today’s matchup features two pitchers who could easily be exploited at sea level. I’m inclined to target Diamondbacks starter Trevor Cahill as the top pitcher for stacking. Cahill is a ground ball pitcher, and that profile can run into trouble when visiting Coors Field. Their sinkers tend to be less sinky, which results in elevated pitches and gopher balls. Cahill’s last four outings can be described as poor, and a start at Coors is unlikely to get him back on track.
TOP SHELF
Jose Bautista - TOR (EARLY): Fun with Jose Bautista stats. Against righties he’s hit .267/.391/.488. Not bad. Against lefties, he has a .336/.434/.636 line. Now that’s eye opening. Bautista will face southpaw Chris Capuano at hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. This seems like a wise purchase.
Kole Calhoun - LAA: Oh, it’s our old friend Calhoun. He didn’t provide much of anything yesterday, but he’s still facing mediocre Texas righties. Today’s target is Colby Lewis. Just as we’ve discussed countless times, Calhoun’s value lies in his extra-base power and frequent plate appearances. This is another game where the Angels leadoff man could bat five or even six times.
David Ortiz - BAL: Camden Yards is exceptionally friendly to left-handed power hitters - only Yankee Stadium and Coors Field are comparable. As such, it’s not surprising that Ortiz bashed two home runs last night. Given the venue, a repeat performance is possible. The Red Sox are opposed by Chris Tillman. He’s done a good job generating weak contact, so this isn’t a perfect matchup.
Also Consider: Corey Dickerson - COL (EARLY), Edwin Encarnacion - TOR (EARLY), Yasiel Puig - LAD (EARLY)
BULK PURCHASE
Michael Cuddyer - COL (EARLY): After two consecutive monster nights, I expect Cuddyer to be a popular selection this afternoon. The Rockies cleanup hitter has made short work of the Diamondbacks pitching staff. In addition to the matchup being fantastic, he’s a high average hitter which makes him a good bet to provide some sort of positive return.
Devin Mesoraco - CIN: This is an aggressive play with the hopes that Michael Wacha either serves up a couple cookies or gets replaced early in the game. I’m actually surprised to see Wacha making the start since there was recently talk of him missing the remainder of the regular season. Mesoraco offers more than enough power to park one at pitcher friendly Busch Stadium.
Justin Upton - ATL: While I admit Jon Niese isn’t the most exploitable lefty, I’m always excited to find Upton with an affordable price and the platoon advantage. He features Bautista-quality power numbers against southpaws, including a .294/.394/.606 slash this season. The drawback, insofar as there is one, is that he strikes out a lot.
Also Consider: Jose Reyes - TOR (EARLY), Brian Dozier - MIN, Kennys Vargas - MIN
BARGAIN BIN
Danny Valencia - TOR (EARLY): Valencia carries an extreme platoon split, which makes him a useful tool for DFS players. His .324/.366/.441 line against southpaws is respectable, but he disappears entirely against righties. Your hope tonight is that he pops an early game home run before Capuano is pulled.
Austin Jackson - SEA: While he has a noteworthy platoon split this season, it’s all BABIP. You should still expect a higher average from Jackson against lefties because he’s one of the game’s premier line drive hitters. That could help him against ground ball specialist Dallas Keuchel. As the Mariners leadoff hitter, Jackson should get a handful of shots to provide value tonight.
Ben Zobrist - TAM: While his offensive game has dimmed over the years, Zobrist is still a solid and reliable hitter. The switch-hitter should enjoy facing Hector Noesi. Zobrist usually leads off these days.
Also Consider: Scott Van Slyke - LAD (EARLY). Miguel Montero - ARI (EARLY), Brandon Belt - SFG
STARTING PITCHER
Jordan Zimmermann - WAS: Zimmermann has quietly emerged as a true ace. In past seasons, he’s used his elite command and control to overcome a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. He’s added more whiffs to his repertoire this season, which is why his game has elevated to a new level. He’ll face a Marlins lineup bereft of Giancarlo Stanton.
Dallas Keuchel - HOU: Against the lefty heavy Mariners, Keuchel looks like a reliable, mid-ceiling asset. He’s held lefties to a .238/.289/.317 line on the season with a 68 percent ground ball rate. His strikeout and walk rates are also very good against fellow southpaws (8.87 K/9, 1.77 BB/9). The few righties on offer by Seattle are decidedly mediocre.
T.J. House - CLE: With a solid matchup against the Twins at Target Field and three consecutive seven inning performances, House looks like a potentially valuable play. The biggest issue with House is his platoon split - righties have whomped him with a .295/.354/.454 line. The Twins lineup leans to the right, so House will have his work cut out for him. Do you want to rely on season splits or recent performance?
Also Consider: Max Scherzer - DET (EARLY), Yusmeiro Petit - SFG, Drew Pomeranz - OAK (EARLY)
