Over the last month, the bullpens of the NL East, AL East, NL Central, and AL Central were reviewed in detail. Today, we’ll move along to the NL West.
Before we dive in, there’s an update to the Rays closer depth chart. Closer Brad Boxberger is set to miss the next eight weeks after undergoing core muscle surgery. In my opinion, the next most talented reliever on the roster is Alex Colome. However, Danny Farquhar is more likely to get the first crack at saves.
Farquhar was once the future closer of the Mariners. His velocity has dropped about two mph over the past two seasons with a corresponding decline in swinging strike rate. His peripherals still hint at the possibility of a closer-quality season, but it’s looking less and less likely to happen.
Remember, we’re also speaking of the penny pinching Rays. Farquhar is likely viewed as a more expendable arm than Colome. As such, the club will have fewer reservations with his accruing saves. Saves equal cash when it comes time for arbitration. Tampa may want Colome available for spot start work too, although I consider that to be increasingly unlikely.
Despite Farquhar’s greater likelihood to earn saves, I’m investing in Colome in leagues where I’m taking a piece of the action. Colome has the necessary talent to run with a ninth inning gig while Farquhar looks more like a temporary patch. Boxberger was already one of the weaker closers in the league, giving Colome a chance to steal the job permanently.
As always, I welcome any and all criticism or suggestions. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. I will list all pitchers likely to make the club out of spring training with others to watch included in the team-by-team write up. Relievers are a volatile asset class, some will rise and fall unexpectedly.
Los Angeles Dodgers
When Mariano Rivera was the top reliever in baseball, he threw a cutter. It was the only pitch he needed. Jansen is today’s Mo. He throws 86 percent cutters with 10 percent sliders and the rare sinker. All three perform as borderline elite pitches – the latter two because they’re unexpected.
For now, he’s my pick for the top, active closer in baseball (I’m dancing around Aroldis Chapman with that comment). Jansen has had some run-ins with the disabled list. His owners should be ready to dive on plan B if anything happens.
The first candidate for the eighth inning is Hatcher, but he’s not an ideal alternative closer if the need arises. He thrived for most of the season, but he did struggle in a few opportunities for saves. The Dodgers began using him as a righty specialist since lefties get a better look at his stuff, hitting for power and drawing walks. Hatcher throws five distinct pitches. His splitter is his money maker.
As a talented full-inning reliever, Garcia is a better bet to serve as the backup to Jansen. He throws a plus fastball with a high whiff rate to go with an above average slider. An extreme fly ball pitcher, he’s posted tiny walk rates in the majors. The overall profile reminds me of a right-handed Sean Doolittle.
Baez will probably fight Garcia for the distinction of second-best full-inning reliever in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He depends upon a blistering 98 mph fastball, an above average slider, and plus command. He’ll also flash a sinker and a change. The 28-year-old is a late bloomer. He’d be an excellent speculative add if he played on a team with a weaker closer.
Of course an Andrew Friedman built bullpen includes a lefty specialist. Unsurprisingly, it’s his old friend Howell. The soft-tossing southpaw does two things – induces ground balls and limits left-handed hitters. He has 20 hold upside, but you can’t count on help in any other categories. Even the holds are suspect, he accrued just nine last season.
Blanton returned to relevance last year. His stuff played up out of the bullpen thanks to his typical plus-plus command. In 57 innings as a reliever, he posted a 2.04 ERA with 9.73 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9. He was much less effective in four starts. Part of Blanton’s relief success came via a drastic decline to his home run rate. He’s always allowed too many home runs so watch out for regression. He’ll be the long man.
The final spot could belong to one of three candidates – Luis Avilan, Adam Liberatore, or Carlos Frias. Their decision likely depends upon which role they view as most valuable to the club. Due to a stack of injuries, Frias may be needed as a starter before long. However, if he’s not in the rotation, the club may prefer Frias in the bullpen where he can provide a second long relief option.
Avilan is another LOOGY. He’s a fastball-changeup pitcher who returned to relevance last season after a couple ineffective campaigns in Atlanta. Liberatore, another lefty hidden from right-handed hitters, has similar peripherals. He has options so he’ll likely head to Triple-A as depth. Specialists always offer the potential for cheap holds.
San Francisco Giants
Casilla, 35, doesn’t get a lot of credit for a long run of success. I own him in a dynasty league and nobody believes he’ll last the season as the Giants closer. Last year, Casilla traded some ground balls for more strikeouts. He threw his straight fastball less frequently, instead using his curve and slider more often.
While I’m not comfortable buying into over a strikeout per inning, I don’t see why he can’t maintain a rosterable punch out rate. He hasn’t exceeded a 2.84 ERA since 2009. As long as his skills remain intact, he could top expectations once again.
Romo’s been around for ages. He setup for Brian Wilson, closed while Casilla performed setup duties, and now he’s back in the setup role. The 33-year-old is a slider specialist. He controls the zone well for a guy who throws mostly breaking balls. He’s posted a sub-2.00 BB/9 in each of the last five seasons.
Romo’s prone to a little variance in his outcomes due to a shaky 87 mph fastball-sinker combo. Both pitches are below average. As such, he’s a good pick for holds, but he’s unlikely to nail down the closer role for an extended period.
When people look for the next Giants closer, they see Strickland. He possesses one of the best fastballs in baseball. His 98 mph heater performs nearly as well as Aroldis Chapman‘s fastball – that’s the gold standard. Unfortunately for Strickland lovers, his offspeed pitch is no better than adequate. Plenty of relievers get by with just a fastball and a show-me breaking ball, but few of them are top closers.
Kontos is a middle reliever at best. He seems to have a role in the bullpen though. He throws six different pitches and focuses most on the fastball, sinker, cutter, and slider. Serviceable is a word I would use to describe him. Fantasy relevant is not a phrase I would use.
Last week, it was announced that Josh Osich would make the Opening Day roster. The southpaw throws a 97 mph fastball, a 91 mph cutter, and a rarely used changeup. He was used as a platoon pitcher last season despite relatively small splits.
There’s reason to hope Osich could sneak into a left-handed setup reliever role with about a strikeout per inning. He may even have ceiling for more if the cutter is as good as the small sample data suggests.
The real LOOGY in the Giants bullpen is Javier Lopez. He’s been ensconced in the role since he was acquired in 2010. Left-handed hitters have trouble doing anything with Lopez’s offerings while righties tend to torch him. Lopez can give you cheap holds without using many innings. Last year, he made 77 appearances, pitched 39.1 innings, and recorded 20 holds. I’d still look at higher octane alternatives.
Heston was solid out of the rotation last season and even tossed a no hitter. The righty is currently caught in a numbers crunch. He’ll either serve as the long reliever or spend time in Triple-A. If Heston doesn’t make the club, Cory Gearrin and Mike Broadway are a couple of the alternatives.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ziegler is a strange animal. The sidewinding ground ball pitcher posts a tiny strikeout rate which can make him hard to stomach in common fantasy formats. The 70 percent ground ball rate and a penchant for inducing soft contact allow him to post a respectable ERA and WHIP. Everyone expects Ziegler to eventually lose his job to a more traditional closer – me included. This has created an opportunity to draft him cheaply. Just be sure to grab a handcuff or two.
Clippard is handcuff number one. I have serious worries about his ability to succeed in the NL West. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who has spent his career in neutral or pitcher friendly ball parks. He’s often one of the leaders in infield fly rate. Those won’t count as strikeouts in a fantasy league, but they’re just as good in reality. Count on about a strikeout per inning with an average walk rate. Watch out for home runs.
Hudson probably has a higher floor and ceiling than Clippard. He throws a 97 mph fastball, plus changeup, and solid-average slider. He missed most of 2012 through 2014 with injury. Last season was his first on the hill as a reliever. His stuff suggests the potential for a few more strikeouts, and he also had lower walk rates pre-injury too. If he doesn’t improve, he’s just an intriguing middle reliever.
Speaking of intrigue, remember when Randall Delgado was a can’t miss starting pitching prospect with the Braves? The 26-year-old is now a solid middle reliever. His stuff never developed as hoped, and his command remains iffy. Name recognition will have some prognosticating a shot at saves. Don’t buy into the hype.
Bracho isn’t a lock to make the club out of Spring Training. Even if he doesn’t, I suspect he’ll still serve an important role during the season. The 23-year-old has dominated minor league competition while allowing few free passes. In a 12 inning major league trial, he posted 12.41 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, and a 1.46 ERA. The fly ball pitcher lives on a high fastball. He’s another righty with Doolittle’s skill set.
Collmenter is the long reliever. The Diamondbacks have options aplenty for the final bullpen spots. Non-roster invitees include Kyle Drabek, Sam LeCure, Scott Rice, Braden Shipley, and Tim Stauffer.
Rostered alternatives like Evan Marshall, Enrique Burgos, and Andrew Chafin will figure in at some point too. Marshall should be the favorite to get the first look. He’s pitched well this spring and was a closer candidate prior to last season.
San Diego Padres
Command has long been the bane of Rodney’s existence. He has an average fastball-sinker duo with a plus-plus changeup. His best season included a 1.81 BB/9 – back in 2012. Since then, he’s averaged over 4.00 BB/9. The free base runners are a problem, but most of his 2015 troubles can be traced to an unusually high home run rate. There’s a decent chance he’ll keep enough balls in the park to be a useful closer.
If Rodney falters again, Maurer and Pomeranz are next in line. The Padres moved Maurer to the bullpen yesterday where he should fill a setup role. He throws a 96 mph fastball. The pitch doesn’t induce many whiffs. His changeup is his best offering, and he also has an average slider. He has breakout potential in relief, but don’t forget his unimpressive strikeout rate from last year.
I happen to like Pomeranz more as a closer candidate. Unfortunately, major league clubs usually prefer right-handed closers. Pomeranz throws a high quality fastball along with a lackluster curve. Both pitches do play up in relief. In 41 innings out of the ‘pen last season, Pomeranz posted a 2.61 ERA with 10.02 K/9, and 3.05 BB/9.
Quackenbush was once considered a closer candidate. He’s now viewed more as an adequate middle reliever. With a decent fastball and curve, he could tally a dozen holds with a strikeout per inning. There are higher upside relievers with the same median projection.
Vincent has huge platoon splits. He stifles same-handed hitters while lefties get a better look. The Padres should use him more situationally this season. Villanueva typically fills a long relief or swingman role. Fantasy owners need not worry about him. Luis Perdomo and Josh Martin, two right-handed Rule 5 picks, are still in camp too.
The Padres have quite a few interesting NRI in camp. Christian Friedrich and Brandon Morrow could fill a long relief role while Casey Janssen and Matt Thornton may be options for one inning jobs. You may also recognize the names of Philip Humber, Johnny Hellweg, and Daniel McCutchen.
Colorado Rockies
I wish I could write about McGee then walk away from the rest of this bullpen. Unless you’re playing in a quirky NL West Only league, he’s the only guy with fantasy relevance. The southpaw almost exclusively throws a 95 mph fastball. He’ll flash the odd curve too. McGee gets great results with the heater. I fully expect him to survive Coors Field just fine.
The rest of the bullpen could get ugly. Motte briefly ousted Hector Rondon last season, but he’s still a very fringy major leaguer. He throws hard, but he doesn’t get much value out of his 95 mph fastball. As a fly ball pitcher, he doesn’t fit well in Colorado.
Qualls is a ground ball guy who struggles with home runs. For some sinker specialists, the pitch can flatten out when left a little too high in the zone. Denver is a tough locale for sinker ballers – the rarefied air cuts down on pitch movement. Qualls may regret signing with the Rockies.
In a breakout campaign, Miller flashed setup quality upside. He posted a 4.05 ERA (2.62 FIP), 10.26 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. He throws an above average 94 mph fastball and an average slider. His fastball was three mph faster than the previous season.
Logan is a lefty specialist while Rusin and Bergman are long men. The Rockies usually carry two spot starters for a couple reasons. Coors Field can force good pitchers out of the game within the first five innings, and Colorado’s rotation isn’t exactly populated with “good pitchers.”
