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I wanted to take a look at some trade deadline names and fantasy ramifications this week, so that’s below. I’m running down all of the possible closers on the move, too. Next week will be my just-for-fun 2022 player rankings.
Trade Deadline Targets
Max Scherzer (SP Nationals): There’s no bigger rental potentially out there than Scherzer, who is performing about as well as ever (2.10 ERA, career-best 35.5% K rate) as he approaches his 37th birthday later this month. The Nationals still have a shot at the postseason and will be very hesitant to concede, but they badly need young talent (they have the game’s oldest pitching staff) and they could trade Scherzer and still have a shot at bringing him back as a free agent this winter.
Starling Marte (OF Marlins): A fractured rib slowed Marte for a while, but he’s done some of his very best work while healthy this year, hitting .291/.400/.448 in 205 plate appearances. The OBP is a full 60 points better than his career mark. It’s hard to imagine the Marlins winning a bidding war for him this winter, so they either need to extend him now or move him, with the latter scenario seeming far more likely. They could then give Monte Harrison a shot in center field to see if he might be a solution there next year.[[ad:athena]]
Trevor Story (SS Rockies): Story doesn’t seem interested in re-signing with the Rockies as a free agent this winter, so trading him is an obvious move. Still, the organization is so dysfunctional that one shouldn’t assume it will happen. Story is having a down year, and the list of contenders with a need at shortstop is short enough (the A’s are the obvious one, and the Yankees could use the help) that the return probably won’t be all that exciting. The Rockies might figure they’d be better off standing pat and taking the draft pick if he leaves in free agency. Still, the better bet is that he goes. The Rockies could then shift Brendan Rodgers to short and create more playing time for Garrett Hampson and Joshua Fuentes.
Kris Bryant (3B Cubs): 11 straight losses have put the Cubs in long-shot territory for the postseason, even if it hardly seems far-fetched that the Brewers will falter some and a team could prevail in the NL Central with 87-89 wins. Really, though, selling now is probably the best thing for the Cubs’ future, what with Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo all in their walk years. Bryant was the one player from that group the Cubs were open to moving prior to this season, and he’s the likeliest to go now. His versatility makes him a fit for just about any contender, and he’d look particularly good helping to break up all of the lefties in the Giants lineup.
Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras (Cubs): Unlike the rest of the Cubs here, Contreras has another year to go before free agency. Still, that probably wouldn’t stop the Cubs from moving on if the right offer came along (they have very high hopes for catching prospect Miguel Amaya, who could be ready next summer). Baez seems more likely to stay, partly because the shortstop market figures to be weak. He’s also a better bet to re-sign as a free agent than Bryant.
Nick Castellanos (OF Reds): Committing big dollars to Castellanos and Mike Moustakas prior to last year made it difficult for the Reds to put a well-rounded team on the field this season, but Castellanos has certainly earned his money by hitting .338/.391/.592 in 343 plate appearances. Now the problem is that he seems very likely to opt out of his four-year, $64 million deal and return to free agency this winter. The Reds will probably keep him and see how things play out, but if things turn south over the rest of the month, he could bring a very good prospect in return.
Jose Berrios (SP Twins): The Twins remain talented enough to go on a run, but at this point, they’ve dug themselves such a hole that playing .600 ball the rest of the way would still get them to just 82 wins. Selling is the right call, but the problem there is that the guys with the most trade value are players the team is going to need in order to return to contention next year. Berrios leads that group; the 27-year-old possesses a 3.52 ERA this season, has no durability concerns and is under control for 2022. He could bring the biggest return of anyone on this list, but as part of the Twins core, he’s going to be very difficult to give up.
Joey Gallo (OF Rangers): Gallo’s big surge of late -- he’s raised his OPS from .764 on June 19 to .880 now -- should make him a lot more attractive to contenders. The Rangers have him under control for next year and don’t need to move him, but he’d be a huge get for the White Sox or Braves. The Padres have been sniffing around here, too, though he’s not as much of an upgrade for San Diego as he would be elsewhere. A trade to a better team in a ballpark that’s a little more homer friendly would give Gallo’s fantasy value a boost.
German Marquez (SP Rockies): Rockies manager Bud Black said Marquez isn’t going anywhere, but if he’s the one making those decisions, that’s a very bad sign for the organization. It’s easy to understand why the Rockies would want to keep Marquez, who has youth, excellence, durability and a team friendly contract all working for him. But the Rockies aren’t good now, and they’re probably not going to be any good next year, either. Marquez might never again have as much trade value as he does right now, and for just once, the Rockies should try selling high. If Marquez goes, he could be a top-20 fantasy SP over the rest of the season.
Kyle Gibson (SP Rangers): Gibson usually gives up hits and homers in abundance, but that hasn’t been the case during a 2021 campaign in which he’s leading the AL with a 1.98 ERA. His BABIP is currently .243, compared to a career mark of .308, and his HR/FB rate of 8.9% is a sharp decrease from his career mark of 14.7%. That the Rangers’ new ballpark is playing quite pitcher friendly certainly helps some. Gibson’s luck probably won’t last, but he is reliable and he’s not making a lot of money (his frontloaded contract pays him just $7 million next year). He should be popular.
Adam Frazier (2B Pirates): Taking the risk they wouldn’t with Jameson Taillon, the Pirates kept Frazier for the beginning of this year rather than settling for a modest return over the winter. It should pay off, as Frazier looks to be putting together far and away his best season. He’s even going to be an All-Star starter. Frazier doesn’t offer a lot of power or speed and his defense is merely solid, so he’s not going to net the Pirates a big-time prospect. Still, there should be a few teams interested; his ability to play the outfield adds to the number of teams that could use him.
Danny Duffy (SP Royals): Duffy’s fantastic start to his 2021 season came to an end with a forearm injury suffered in mid-May. He returned late last month and has allowed six runs in 10 1/3 innings since while still building up stamina after not going on a rehab assignment. Duffy’s velocity is better now that it has been in several years, and he’s sporting a career-best 26.3% strikeout rate. Health remains a big concern and will take a toll on his trade value, but with the way he’s performed this year, he’s someone you wouldn’t mind starting a postseason game. The Royals probably won’t be big sellers, but since Duffy is in his walk year, it’d make sense to get a prospect for him.
Jon Gray (SP Rockies): As a free agent at season’s end, Gray is the Rockies starter most likely to go. The 29-year-old has turned in a solid campaign with his 3.89 ERA in 14 starts to date, even if his 20.6% strikeout rate is a little light. Mostly, he’s been buoyed by a .251 BABIP that’s 70 points lower than his Coors-inflated .321 career mark. He’ll be a good fit at the back of some contender’s rotation, but I still probably won’t recommend him in mixed leagues after he gets out of Coors.
Mitch Haniger (OF Mariners): The Mariners have been one of the year’s most pleasant surprises, so it’ll be tough to break up what’s working. Still, Haniger has to be available if the right offer comes along. After missing much of 2019 and all of 2020, he’s rebounded to hit .252/.304/.479 this year, though he’s been on a steady decline there since a hot start. He also seems to have lost something defensively, and durability figures to remain an issue going forward. And, of course, young outfielders are the Mariners’ biggest organizational strength. Haniger would make a lot of sense for the Rays or A’s, teams on which he could share time between the outfield and DH. His modest $3 million salary will make him extra attractive to smaller-market clubs, though he will get a big bump in his final year of arbitration next season.
David Peralta, Kole Calhoun and Josh Reddick (OF Diamondbacks): It doesn’t look like the Diamondbacks are going to return to contention next year, so there’s little reason for them to hang on to any of their over-30 position players, a group that also includes Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Vogt. It’s more important that the Diamondbacks see what the likes of Daulton Varsho, Stuart Fairchild (who was just called up Tuesday), Seth Beer and Drew Ellis have to offer. Varsho has a chance to be a mixed-league catcher in the second half (even if he’s mostly playing the outfield), and the others could be interesting in deeper leagues.
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Closers
Chicago Cubs: Craig Kimbrel has been awesome, and he figures to be the top reliever on the board if the Cubs decide to sell this month. That he’s still going to be owed close to $6 million at the deadline, plus either $16 million or a $1 million buyout for 2022, will limit his trade value unless the Cubs want to eat some of that salary, but there won’t be much reason for the Cubs to keep him now if they choose to move any of their big bats. Ryan Tepera is next in line for saves in Chicago, but if the Cubs trade Kimbrel, they might as well deal Tepera, Andrew Chafin and Dan Winkler, too. Perhaps they could even wind up with Keegan Thompson finishing the year as closer.
Minnesota: Hansel Robles could be the first Twins player to go. The tougher call would be whether to follow with Taylor Rogers, who would be one of the top relievers available. The Twins should look to extend Rogers, whose salary could jump to $9 million-$10 million in his final season of arbitration next year. If Rogers stays, he’ll probably be the Twins’ primary closer during the final two months. If both he and Rogers go, then Alex Colome could get another crack at the job, depending on how he performs this month. Of course, if he really turns it around, he’ll probably be traded, too. Tyler Duffey would be the better bet.
L.A. Angels: Raisel Iglesias is a free agent at season’s end. The Angels probably won’t want to concede prior to the trade deadline, but if they do decide to sell, Iglesias should be first out the door, potentially making Mike Mayers the Angels closer. Steve Cishek would also be a candidate to fill that role, but he’s at least as good of a bet as Iglesias to be traded.
Pittsburgh: Richard Rodriguez is as sure of a thing to get traded this month as anyone in the game, but the Pirates don’t have an obvious fallback in the closer’s role. While they’d probably prefer that Kyle Crick step up and claim the gig, David Bednar looks like the better option from here.
Washington: If the Nationals opt to sell, Brad Hand is an obvious candidate to go. The 31-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and he’s been pretty great this year, even if his peripherals don’t measure up. Daniel Hudson would be the top candidate to replace him, though Hudson, who is hoping to return in a week or two after missing a month with elbow inflammation, could also be traded if he shows something prior to the deadline. That would leave the Nationals with Tanner Rainey, Austin Voth and Wander Suero battling for closing duties.
Seattle: Moving Kendall Graveman to the pen couldn’t have really worked out any better for the Mariners or the player, who seems set for a decent payday as a free agent. Between his success this year and his tiny $1.25 million salary (though he could earn $1 million or more in incentives), he should have as many suitors as anyone this month. The Mariners could turn to Drew Steckenrider as their primary closer if they move Graveman.
Colorado: Though Daniel Bard is 36, he’ll still fall short of the service time necessary to qualify for free agency this winter. He hasn’t gotten much attention this year after being named NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2020, but following a rough April, he’s been outstanding over the last seven weeks, posting a 2.38 ERA in his last 21 appearances. That should give him decent trade value, though the Rockies will probably be inclined to keep him. They’re more likely to trade Mychal Givens.
Miami: The Marlins might already be transitioning from Yimi Garcia to Anthony Bender in the closer’s role, though they could hold off on that if they think they could boost Garcia’s trade value some more. Garcia isn’t really anyone’s idea of a closer, but in spite of his home run issues, he’d be a perfectly solid addition for a contender.
Texas: Ian Kennedy has been a reliable closer for the Rangers, shaking off a miserable 2020 to post a 2.86 ERA and 14 saves to date. Contenders will be wary because of his problems with the long ball, but he’s reliable and cheap. The Rangers could go to Spencer Patton in the closer’s role if Kennedy departs. Joely Rodriguez has the talent, but it’s been a struggle for him all year.
Arizona: Joakim Soria will certainly go if anyone wants to offer a decent prospect for him. The Diamondbacks don’t have much in the way of fallbacks, at least not unless J.B. Bukauskas breaks through in short order, but it really doesn’t matter.
Kansas City: The Royals could trade Greg Holland, who seems to be on the outs again anyway. Scott Barlow is the man right now and really should have been all along.
Detroit: The Tigers probably won’t ask for much in return for Jose Cisnero. His departure would lead to more fantasy value for Gregory Soto. Michael Fulmer should also be up for grabs if he can make it back from his neck issue prior to the deadline.
