After crunching the numbers, I have come to the determination that Lourdes Gurriel is actually good. It’s becoming harder to deny. Through his first 109 major league games, he’s sporting a .290/.326/.512 batting line with 23 home runs and 65 RBI. That’s pushing for a possible 30-homer, 100-RBI pace over a full season. Given how terrible second base production has been this year, that’s noteworthy.
Even with this recent monster stretch, Gurriel’s contact rate leaves a lot to be desired. But one thing that stands out from last year is that he’s being more selective in general, including on pitches outside of the strike zone. In addition to lofting the ball more often, he’s seen a nice jump in Statcast’s barrel percentage metric compared to last year. In fact, he already has as many barrels this year as he had last year, despite 76 fewer batted balls. Could it be as simple as attacking better pitches?
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Even if you think Gurriel has been somewhat fortunate — that’s probably going to happen when you have 12 hits in the space of 24 at-bats — there’s still plenty to like about his situation from a fantasy perspective. He’s hitting third in the Jays’ lineup and qualifies as an outfielder now in addition to second base and shortstop. The word is naturally out among competitive fantasy owners, which is why Gurriel doesn’t qualify for this week’s recommendations, but who doesn’t like a little validation for a player they picked up?
Have specific questions about your roster? Ask @djshort on Twitter.
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MIXED LEAGUES
(Players rostered in under 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
Keston Hiura 2B, Brewers (Yahoo: 25 percent rostered)
It’s just a matter of time. Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself. But really, how much longer can Hiura be denied here? It was understandable that the Brewers wanted to give some leash to guys like Travis Shaw and Jesus Aguilar, but they still aren’t producing. Meanwhile, Hiura has hit .321/.406/.655 with eight homers over 20 games since being sent down to Triple-A earlier this month. Strikeouts are a concern with Hiura — he’s fanned in 25.2 percent of his plate appearances in Triple-A this year and he struck out 23 times in 69 plate appearances during his first stint in the majors — but he deserves the opportunity to run away with a job. Stash him now. He could make a big impact if or when the Brewers make the call.
Logan Allen SP, Padres (Yahoo: 31 percent rostered)
Allen was included among the deep league options in last week’s Waiver Wired, so maybe this qualifies as cheating, but he’s legitimately impressed through his first two MLB starts. The 22-year-old has allowed just two runs in 13 innings with a 10/4 K/BB ratio. He’s amassed double-digit swinging strikes in both of those starts, with the bulk of them coming on his slider and changeup. Yes, Allen faced the Orioles in his most recent start, but guess what? He lines up for a start against the light-hitting Giants next Monday. Keep rolling with him, at least for that one. The decision is a little tougher next weekend against the Dodgers on the road.
Amed Rosario SS, Mets (Yahoo: 42 percent rostered)
Rosario largely remains a work in progress as far as his approach, but he continues to trend up as a fantasy option. He’s already equaled his home run total from last year (nine) and finds himself just 11 off the pace in terms of RBI. He’s seen increases in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, average launch angle, and barrel percentage, all promising signs. The 23-year-old has also been more efficient in stealing bases (10-for-12) and should reach 20 steals for the second straight year, even if he continues to hit in the bottom-third of the order. Shortstop is a deep position this year, but we’re missing some key ones right now with Trevor Story, Adalberto Mondesi, Corey Seager, Tim Anderson, and Carlos Correa all sidelined. In a nice groove at the plate, Rosario is a respectable fill-in.
Liam Hendriks SP/RP, Athletics (Yahoo: 44 percent rostered)
This one is pretty simple. And frankly, I don’t understand why Hendriks hasn’t topped the 50-percent mark yet, but here we are. With closer Blake Treinen on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain, Hendriks is a must-pickup in all formats. Lou Trivino appeared to be the obvious fallback option at the start of the year, but he’s scuffled with a 4.86 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Joakim Soria has been a little better recently, but Hendriks has been out of this world. He’s put up a 1.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 36 appearances this season, including a dominant 19/1 K/BB ratio in 10 scoreless innings through his last nine appearances.
Bobby Bradley 1B, Indians (Yahoo: 22 percent rostered)
Bradley feels like the perfect player for this moment in time. A former top-100 prospect, the 23-year-had lost some momentum coming into this year, but he put up a monster .292/.359/.638 batting line with 24 homers in just 67 games in Triple-A before his call-up over the weekend. He managed to do that despite minuscule progress in the way of making contact. His strikeout rate was at 32 percent in Triple-A, just a smidge lower than the 33.6 percent mark from 2018. The elephant in the room is the use of the MLB baseball in Triple-A. It has thrown everything out of whack, but the power has never really been a question with Bradley. He’s admittedly a wild card, but hopefully he does enough on the batting average front to stick in the majors and not be a drag on fantasy rosters. Those in shallow leagues probably have better options.
Brandon Workman RP, Red Sox (Yahoo: 37 percent rostered)
The Red Sox stand out as a team with an obvious need for bullpen help going into trade deadline season, but Workman is stating his case in an unsettled situation. The 30-year-old locked down his third save of the season Tuesday against the White Sox and now holds seven wins with a 1.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through 40 appearances the year. It should be said that he’s walked 26 batters in 37 innings, so he’s living very dangerously. He’s also benefitted from a .164 batting average on balls in play. However, he’s missing more bats than ever before and has done a great job keeping the ball on the ground. Workman is worthy of consideration at least until there’s more clarity in the late innings.
Collin McHugh SP/RP, Astros (Yahoo: 23 percent rostered)
Josh James SP/RP, Astros (Yahoo: 9 percent rostered)
This is pure speculation, but maybe logical speculation at this point. Framber Valdez had his straight rough start Wednesday —allowing six runs over three innings against the Pirates — before being optioned to the minors. This leaves the fifth spot in Houston’s rotation unsettled, with two obvious alternatives in McHugh and James. McHugh struggled in the rotation to begin the year before going down with elbow discomfort last month and isn’t really stretched out at this point, so James might be the better stash. The 26-year-old has struggled with free passes this year (25 walks in 39 1/3 innings), but he’s also struck out 61 batters and has been used in a multi-inning role often. After his momentum as a sleeper was slowed this spring due to a strained right quad, consider him back on the fantasy map.
Emilio Pagan RP, Rays (Yahoo: 34 percent rostered)
Another bullpen pickup this week, Pagan is main man in the Rays’ bullpen in the short-term. Diego Castillo hit the 10-day injured list over the weekend with a right shoulder impingement and Jose Alvarado’s return date remains up in the air, so the door is wide open for Pagan to take advantage. Acquired from the Athletics in a three-team trade over the winter, the 28-year-old has reeled off an amazing 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and a 36/8 K/BB ratio over 29 1/3 innings on the year. It’s going to be tough to maintain the stand rate and BABIP that we’ve seen until this point, but he holds the 10th highest swinging strike percentage among relievers. That checks in higher than renowned closers like Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, and Will Smith. Pick him up even with the understanding that things will probably get murky again soon.
Jordan Lyles SP/RP, Pirates (Yahoo: 29 percent rostered)
Lyles hit a bit of a rough patch before landing on the injured list with left hamstring tightness earlier this month, but he’s still excelled overall with a 3.64 ERA over 12 starts. He’s relied heavily on his curveball over the past two seasons and it’s worked for him, as the pitch has picked up the highest percentage of his swinging strikes. Throwing him right back out there for a start against the Brewers in Milwaukee for his return this weekend feels like a bad idea, but go ahead and stash for now and see how he fares.
