Paul Skenes shows diminished velocity in defeat

The lone run came on Alec Burleson’s homer in the first. Skenes would have been done after six innings and 90 pitches today, but he was at 199 strikeouts. He returned for the seventh and immediately got No. 200, with Leo Bernal somehow just watching two fastballs down the middle go right by him for strikes two and three. Skenes was then lifted from the 1-1 game, keeping him 10-11 with a 3.82 ERA for the season. He has some adjustments to make next year, assuming the 1.5 mph he lost on his fastball isn’t coming back, but it’d be a bad idea to count him out. The poor defensive support he received accounted for much of his decline this year.

Skenes made it through the first two batters of the game without any issue, but grooved a first-pitch fastball to Vinnie Pasquantino over the heart of the plate, which Pasquantino drove 410 feet for a home run to put the Royals up 1-0. The Brewers would add to their lead in the third inning when they strung together four hits, with Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia both driving in runs to push the Royals’ lead to 4-0. Skenes would allow a solo homer to Michael Massey in the top of the fourth inning for his fifth and final earned run of the night but would settle in to pitch two more scoreless innings before being pulled at the start of the seventh inning. Skenes has allowed five earned runs in two of his four starts in September and has a 4.70 ERA in the month. He’s set to make one more start this season, which will come on Thursday at home against the Cardinals.

The runs scored on solo homers. Skenes had 12 whiffs and struck out four before leaving with a one-run lead that was blown by Gregory Soto in the eighth. Still, it was a positive day for him. He needed just 82 pitches to get his 21 outs, and he walked only one. Skenes figures to make his next start Friday against the Royals, unless the Pirates find reason to be aggressive and start him Thursday versus the Brewers instead.

Skenes gave up four hits, walked one and struck out two. He improved to 10-11 with the win. Skenes bounced back nicely after allowing five runs against the Giants in his last start. He has a 3.83 ERA. Skenes is lined up to face the Cubs on the road next weekend.

All of the runs came in the second inning. Incredibly, the Pirates picked Skenes up, scoring nine times in the third to knock Logan Webb out of the game and take an 11-5 lead. Skenes, though, was lifted one out shy of qualifying for the win after allowing a single and a double in the fifth. Skenes’ bad inning was the product of a walk, three singles and a Rafael Devers homer. He finished with four strikeouts. It’ll be another outing in which his expected numbers weren’t as bad as his actual ones, but no one much wants to hear about that at this point. He’ll take a 3.97 ERA into Sunday’s start against the Angels.

Skenes was brilliant on Tuesday in San Diego, holding the Padres scoreless over six innings. He scattered just three hits and did not walk a batter while striking out four. He’d depart with the game still scoreless after six in what was a pitcher’s duel. It was Skenes’ first scoreless outing since May 12. The 24-year-old right-hander will take a 3.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 175/41 K/BB ratio across 145 innings into a start against the Giants in Pittsburgh next Tuesday.

Skenes allowed one run through four before giving up double and a walk to start the fifth. It was surprising he wasn’t pulled at that point, but he stayed in to strike out Colt Keith before giving up an RBI single to Gleyber Torres. Skenes departed then and Gregory Soto allowed one of the two inherited runners to score before finishing the inning. After coming in at just 95.7 mph last time out and getting a couple of extra days off this week, Skenes was back up to 96.8 mph on average with his fastball today. Four of his five strikeouts came on the pitch. He allowed just two hard-hit balls in the game, and one of those turned into a double play. The walks are really annoying, but the outing was still more promising than the line suggests. He’s due to face the Padres next week.

Skenes’ fastball last time out averaged 95.7 mph, down 1.2 mph from his season average, and he was pulled after just 65 pitches against the Marlins. There’s no injury being disclosed, but obviously something isn’t quite right. “Everyone is dealing with stuff this year,” Kelly said. “But he’s given us no indication that it’s injury related.” The Pirates will have Lake Backar open in Skenes’ place.

Once again, Skenes was simply not sharp here. His command was a mess as he walked four batters for the second straight start. Those woes were most apparent with his fastball. He simply could not find the zone with it and missed too many of his spots by a wide margin. In turn, he threw his second-lowest rate of fastballs in any start this season. Yet, it was only the second time over the last two months where that pitch’s average velocity stretched back above 97 mph. It was also his first time in 10 starts where he threw multiple pitches above 98 mph. Is his arm tired? Are his mechanics out of whack because he’s trying to reach back and find more velocity? We simply don’t know, but this is more than just a poor stretch now. Skenes has a 6.14 ERA over his last seven starts and the Pirates are an unthinkable 3-12 in his last 15. He’s scheduled for a two-start week coming up against the Marlins and Red Sox as he desperately tries to get back on track.

Henry Davis isn’t catching Paul Skenes for the first time since last April. We’ll see if the change has an impact on Skenes from a performance standpoint, but the Pirates are going to keep rolling with Rodríguez behind the dish since he’s hitting .268/.380/.457 with six homers and six steals in 151 plate appearances since mid-May.