Paul Skenes shows diminished velocity in defeat

Once again, Skenes was simply not sharp here. His command was a mess as he walked four batters for the second straight start. Those woes were most apparent with his fastball. He simply could not find the zone with it and missed too many of his spots by a wide margin. In turn, he threw his second-lowest rate of fastballs in any start this season. Yet, it was only the second time over the last two months where that pitch’s average velocity stretched back above 97 mph. It was also his first time in 10 starts where he threw multiple pitches above 98 mph. Is his arm tired? Are his mechanics out of whack because he’s trying to reach back and find more velocity? We simply don’t know, but this is more than just a poor stretch now. Skenes has a 6.14 ERA over his last seven starts and the Pirates are an unthinkable 3-12 in his last 15. He’s scheduled for a two-start week coming up against the Marlins and Red Sox as he desperately tries to get back on track.

Henry Davis isn’t catching Paul Skenes for the first time since last April. We’ll see if the change has an impact on Skenes from a performance standpoint, but the Pirates are going to keep rolling with Rodríguez behind the dish since he’s hitting .268/.380/.457 with six homers and six steals in 151 plate appearances since mid-May.

On the plus side for fantasy managers, Skenes punched out seven batters on the night while also issuing four free passes. The Reds got to him early and often in this one, scoring twice in the first before Skenes served up a solo shot to JJ Bleday in the third and a two-run bomb to Sal Stewart in the fourth. Skenes got 15 swings and misses on 100 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 28 percent. He’ll carry a 3.90 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a 156/32 K/BB ratio (124 2/3 innings) into Wednesday’s
showdown against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

Skenes gave up six hits, walked two and struck out 11. He fell to 9-9 with the loss. Skenes kept the Cubs off the scoreboard for the first four innings before running into trouble. After getting the first out of the fifth inning, four consecutive Cubs hits led to three runs. In the sixth inning, Skenes again retired the first batter before allowing two baserunners to reach. At that point, he was removed. Both runners came around to score as the Cubs would add five runs to extend their lead to 8-0. Skenes saw his ERA bump up to 3.65. He’s lined up to face the Reds on the road next Thursday.

Skenes gave up seven hits, walked two and struck out eight. He improved to 9-8 with the win. Skenes picked up where he left off before the All-Star break and now has allowed two runs or less in three consecutive starts. The 24-year-old right-hander has a 3.43 ERA and 3.14 xFIP. He’s lined up to face the Cubs at home next weekend.

That means the team will push Mitch Keller to next week. It makes sense to use Jones, who is clearly on a pitch count, in the first start after the break because it means the bullpen will be fresh.

The star right-hander racked up seven strikeouts on the afternoon while allowing only one base on balls. The Pirates provided him with 14 early runs of support, so all Skenes had to do was keep the train on the tracks in this one. The only damage against him came on an RBI double by Jackson Chourio and a fielder’s choice by Gary Sanchez in the fourth inning. Skenes got nine whiffs on 82 pitches on the day, posting a CSW of 28 percent. He finishes the first half of the season with an 8-8 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 130/24 K/BB ratio across 108 1/3 innings in his first 20 starts.

Skenes was hardly dominant in striking out four and giving up eight hits, but very importantly, his stuff rebounded some tonight. He averaged 97.1 mph with his fastball. That 0.8 mph better than his season low from an ugly start against the Phillies last week, and his first time over 97 since May 28. His fastball spin rate was also back up to 2,150 rpm. He exceeded that mark in each of his first 14 starts, but he was below it his last four times out, bottoming out at 1,988 last week. So, that’s encouraging. The Skenes of 2025 probably isn’t walking through that door Sunday against the Brewers, but the bleeding seems to have stopped. He’s 7-8 with a 3.58 ERA.

It’s a colossal bummer for baseball fans hoping to see Misiorowski hurling triple-digit heaters during next week’s Midsummer Classic, but this was always the expected outcome here. Skenes, Misorowski and Meyer are all taking the ball for their respective club’s first-half finales on Sunday, which means there was zero chance they would be able to pitch in the All-Star Game just three days later. Luzardo, Ashcraft and O’Brien are headed to the game for the first time in their respective careers. It’s likely going to be Shohei Ohtani taking the ball to start for the National League based on how things are lining up from a schedule standpoint.

Skenes’ command was off tonight, and his fastball velocity was down 0.7 mph from his season average. Still, he probably could have gotten through four allowing one run with just a little help. In the second, he should have had Gabriel Rincones Jr. struck out on what was called ball three, but the Pirates were afraid to challenge the pitch after already burning one. He went on to walk, and then, with the bases loaded, Justin Crawford hit a little chopper to third that Nick Gonzales got no outs on after his throw home hit Alec Bohm. Trea Turner went on to homer in a five-run inning. In the fourth, the Phillies hit Skenes very hard, but Bryce Harper’s two-run double could have been caught if the Pirates didn’t have an infielder in Tyler Callahan playing left. No pitcher in the league has been let down more by his defense this year than Skenes. It’s not wholly responsible for his decline, but it’s a big part of it. He’ll take a 3.63 ERA into his next start against the Braves.