The fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, and with them comes increased scrutiny on each team’s schedule. The NBA has done a good job spreading out games the past few years, reducing back-to-backs and ‘four games in five nights’ situations, but there are still disparities that can be exploited -- ignore them at your own peril. The full-season schedule grid is available from the launch of Rotoworld’s Draft Guide until the bitter end of the season, along with content detailing strategies and schedule highlights, so take advantage of that next year if you aren’t already!
If you are in a head-to-head league with playoffs that run Weeks 22-25, for instance, you’d do well to avoid the Bulls, Grizzlies and Pelicans. Even if you have star players from those teams, you’re at a clear disadvantage -- Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley and Jrue Holiday each play 12 times in that span. Compare that to 16 games for the Kings, in addition to seven other teams with 15 games, and you’re giving up 20%-25% value right off the bat. You can look at favorable vs. unfavorable matchups, as well as the likelihood of rest for various players, but there’s nothing you can do about a lousy schedule. Does playing Julius Randle over Larry Nance Jr. make sense? On any given day in DFS, sure, but if I’m losing three games over four weeks in a head-to-head playoff, I’ll take my chances on Nance.
Individual schedules aren’t quite as important in rotisserie leagues, but there are still advantages to looking ahead. If you have an 82-game limit and are ahead of that pace for centers, but need to catch up with games from guards, you can target trades (if the deadline hasn’t passed) or pickups likely to max out your games. As we’ll see, the Kings and Nuggets are likely options.
[[ad:athena]]
Let’s look first at games-played for every team over the season’s final six weeks:
Almost any other team with a five-game week in the heart of fantasy playoffs is a goldmine, but I can’t get too excited about Week 23 for the Warriors. Their schedule is bookended with back-to-back sets on Mar. 18/19 and 23/24, which immediately heightens the risk of DNPs for core veterans -- Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston could all get a night off. It helps that Denver is keeping the heat on for the No. 1 seed, but it’s still reasonable to anticipate some rest days during such a busy last-season stretch. Still, owners can’t complain if those guys mentioned end up playing four times in a critical week.
Notable trouble spots are two-week duds for the Cavaliers, Clippers, Warriors (the week before their five-gamer), Grizzlies, Nets, Magic and Knicks. In some instances, it may simply be necessary to cut players and live to play another week. If you have Jordan Clarkson on your team, for instance, does it make sense to hold him in a two-game Week 21? Yes, if your playoffs haven’t started, you have a bye week, or you’re simply positive you can win despite his poor schedule. If not, cut him and look to replace his scoring on the waiver wire. If Clarkson averages 20 points, three 3-pointers, four rebounds and three assists, for instance, it would be simple to find a value-added replacement on the wire. Ten teams play four games that week, so anyone hitting more than half of Clarkson’s value will get the job done (assuming lineup restraints allow you to play them every night).
On the other hand, there’s nothing much you can do about a guy like Nikola Vucevic playing 3-3-2 soon (assuming your trade deadline has passed). That two-game week will be brutal, but owners can navigate it by picking up games here and there. When it gets closer, maybe cut Kent Bazemore to grab Moe Harkless -- there’s an extra game. Replace Dario Saric with Jeff Green and you’re on the way to compensating for Vuc’s bad week.
Editor’s Note: Looking for an edge when it comes to fantasy hoops? Our new NBA DFS Toolkit has a Lineup Optimizer, Customizable Projections, Next Man Up tool and more for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo! And for season-long, the NBA Season Pass provides weekly projections, rankings, Pickups of the Day and more.
The week-to-week impact of fewer games is, for obvious reasons, enormous. I applied a 25% discount to the stats of the league’s top-40 fantasy players (points-league value, per game), and the results were enlightening. James Harden and Anthony Davis were still the top producers even at 75% of their normal value, and it didn’t bump guys like Paul George, Russell Westbrook or Giannis Antetokounmpo from top spots. However, it took a far bigger toll on less elite players -- Rudy Gobert fell from the top-25 to the middle rounds, as did Blake Griffin, Devin Booker and Kyle Lowry. Myles Turner, Klay Thompson, Al Horford and Lauri Markkanen all dipped from the top-50 to being outside the top-100.
You can survive a bad weekly schedule for one star player on your squad, and maybe two, particularly if you stream intelligently and/or make pickups in advance to pad your games-played. If one or more of your top players has a lousy schedule throughout the entirety of your playoffs, though, you might be in serious trouble. Here’s a look at how many games each team plays during common playoff periods. View your league(s) settings to confirm when they begin and end -- for instance, some leagues combine weeks 25 & 26 into one final matchup.
It’s obvious at a glance that some teams will be good or bad no matter when your playoffs occur. The Nets and Magic are below average in every possible instance, a brutal reality for owners of D’Angelo Russell, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Aaron Gordon, Vuc, etc. Other teams to be wary of include Atlanta, Chicago, Memphis, New Orleans and Phoenix.
On the bright side, you can lock in guys from the Kings, Jazz, Nuggets and Pistons without any concerns about games-played. It’s fantastic news if you own stud centers Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert or Andre Drummond, among others. The Rockets, Lakers, Heat and Wizards are also sitting pretty with plenty of games in most situations. Ideally, some or all your star players come from this pool of teams (or the teams I haven’t mentioned, all of which have good-not-great schedules). If not, at least try to mitigate the risk by grabbing solid guys with extra games. Jae Crowder is a good example, as he’s owned in only 34% of leagues despite having a terrific rest-of-season schedule. It doesn’t hurt that he’s on fire in his past two games with averages of 21.0 points (50.0% FGs, 85.7% FTs), 4.0 threes, 6.0 boards, 2.0 assists and 1.0 blocks.
I’ll conclude with a link to this data in Google Sheets, where anyone can view and download the tables above. If your fantasy playoffs go from Weeks 21-24, for instance, you can sort that column from largest to smallest for an at-a-glance list of teams to target and avoid. Let me know if you have any questions or insights on Twitter @Knaus_RW, and good luck!
