In my personal opinion, the 9-cat format is the absolute best way to play fantasy basketball. Why? Because, as opposed to it’s 8-category brethren, the 9-category format rewards efficiency by including the turnover category. Others out there may argue that turnovers come naturally to a person that handles the ball a great deal, but my counter argument is always: Chris Paul. Is CP3 unique in that he’s able to post an assist percentage of 49.3 whilst only committing 2.6 turnovers per game? Absolutely, but why should we ignore such an impressive feat? In my opinion Kawhi Leonard’s career-year this past season, in which he hit career-highs in points (21.2), assists (2.6), 3-pointers (1.8), blocks (1.0) and usage rate (25.8) becomes all that more impressive when you take into account that he only coughed up the rock 1.5 times a night. I do think that turnovers should be a penalizing factor in fantasy hoops, they balance out the playing field for those assist-heavy teams, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.
So let’s get into it shall we?
The 9-category format
In a standard 9-cat league you are competing for the following categories:
FG%, FT%, 3PM, Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks and Turnovers.
A quick point to make is that certain categories generally lead to negative statistics in another category.
For example:
Assists = Turnovers
3-pointers = lower FG%
Blocks = Poor FT
There are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking this is the case.
Why risk it?
I absolutely hate injuries, and in general when someone says Player X is a risk/reward kind of guy, the only word I read is risk. It’s fine to shoot for the moon towards the later rounds, but I can never get behind taking an injury prone player while there’s still quality talent on the draft board. I will admit, injuries happen to everyone, even the rock solid, seemingly invincible guys eventually go down at some point (Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Paul George); but that doesn’t mean you can’t do your best to avoid drafting an injured roster.
Like Charles Barkley says, “Old people don’t get healthy, they die.” Your best shot at avoiding an injury is to draft young guys, with a proven track record of avoiding extended stretches on the sidelines. You’re always going to be taking on a substantial amount of risk when drafting someone who is coming off a major injury, so if a guy ruptured his Achilles, or blew out his knee the previous season, I’m not really interested. Major knee injuries typically take two years to truly recover from, and while we have seen a few players come back from Achilles tears in the past couple seasons (Kobe Bryant, Wesley Matthews, Brandon Jennings) that first year back tends to be a year in which the player struggles. Additionally, any of the guys mentioned on our “Over the Hill” column, are guys I will be avoiding on draft day. My suggestion? Draft young, draft smart, and pray to the fantasy gods for a healthy season.
Fantasy Gold
So what are the most important categories in the 9-cat format? Or perhaps a better way to phrase this question, what are the statistically rare categories?
Answer: Assists, Blocks, Points and Steals
What can we learn from this? You need to ensure that you’re taking care of these categories early. Basically, if you don’t have someone on your roster that goes by the name of Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Ricky Rubio, or John Wall, it’ll be tough for you to dominate the assist category.
There’s really only a handful of elite shot blockers in the league, so if you want to try and dominate that category, you’re going to need to pursue one of the following players: Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Anthony Davis, Bismack Biyombo, Rudy Gobert, Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns. All of these guys have the potential to put up a 10-block performance on any given night, meaning that any of these guys can single-handedly win you the shot blocking category for any given week in a head-to-head league. There are a few shot blocking sleepers this year, with guys like Biyombo, Jusuf Nurkic and Rudy Gobert likely coming at a discount, but in general, none of these guys will be sliding past the third round.
Points is another category that’s pretty heavily weighted among the top-tier talent. There are only a handful of guys around the league that can give you a 40-plus performance on any given night, so it’s definitely a positive if you can swoop up an elite-level scorer early.
There will be a few potential steals specialists available towards the later-rounds, but from last season, there were only 14 players in the league who managed to average at least 1.8-plus steals per game and they were:
Looking at this list, you will notice that most these guys won’t last beyond the early rounds. Therefore, you should target one of these elite-level steals guys early on, and just be cognizant of consistently adding players that snatch away the rock throughout the draft.
Another absolute gold mine in fantasy hoops is the multi-category producers. There are your obvious multi-cat producers such as Draymond Green, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. But there are also a handful of these multi-cat producers that seem to consistently fly under the radar. Guys like, Trevor Ariza, Nicolas Batum, Kent Bazemore, Jae Crowder, Chandler Parsons, etc. should still be on the board well into the middle-rounds. Multi-category producers win fantasy championships, and if you’re able to nab one of these guys anytime beyond Round-5, you will certainly be happy with that selection.
Take Point Guards and Big Men Early
Point guards run the offence, and big men anchor the defense. What does that mean? The elite-level assist guys tend to be point guards, and that is a position that dries up very quickly in fantasy hoops. The same can be said for the elite-level shot blockers, so make sure you’re grabbing top-tier point guards and bigs within the first four rounds.
To give you an idea of the drop off in talent at the point guard position, let’s take a look at the top point guard performers from the 2015-16 season.
Expected to go in the first-round:
Expected to go in the second-round:
Expected to go in the third and fourth round:
That means if you haven’t selected a point guard at that point you’ll be forced to choose from the following players to fill your No. 1 point guard slot:
Jrue Holiday – huge injury risk, currently out indefinitely as he tends to his wife (set to undergo brain surgery) and newborn child.
Ricky Rubio – huge injury risk
Rajon Rondo – questionable if he can replicate his production from last year in Chicago
Darren Collison – Facing a suspension from the league, also an injury risk
George Hill – Timeshare situation could be on the horizon with so much depth at the point guard spot in Utah (Dante Exum)
Brandon Knight – Major injury risk, could be traded
Jeff Teague – How will he fit in Indiana competing for touches with Paul George, Monta Ellis, Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young?
Goran Dragic –Dragic could actually be in for a top-60 season, but he’s far from elite
Reggie Jackson – Only put up top-90 value last season
Deron Williams – Is he ever not injured?
Mike Conley – solid, but not great if he’s your No. 1 PG
Patrick Beverley – If Beverley is your No. 1 point guard, you’re in trouble
D’angelo Russell – One of the more attractive PGs on the list as a guy with top-50 upside.
Jordan Clarkson – He’s PG eligible, but he plays SG and he doesn’t offer many assists (just 2.4 per game last season).
While there are some gems in that list, I would advise against having someone like Ricky Rubio or Rajon Rondo be the best point guard on your squad. I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and take a top-tier point guard early.
Big-Time Shot Blockers Are Unlikely Fall Past the Third-Round
There were only five players from last season that were able to average at least 2.0 blocks per game, and they are listed below. If you want to be competitive in the shot blocking department, make sure you snatch up one of these guys early.
First-Round Shot Blockers:
Third and Fourth Round Shot Blockers:
Honorable mentions: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, Jusuf Nurkic, Bismack Biyombo
Quality Big Men Can Be Found Later On
While the elite-level shot blockers aren’t likely to make it past the third-round, there are some high-upside bigs you’ll be able to get late. I’ve noticed that guys like Marcin Gortat, Terrence Jones, Robin Lopez, Jusuf Nurkic, Bismack Biyombo and Joel Embiid have been falling pretty darn far in most mocks I’ve done. So while you certainly should add a top-tier center early on, once you grab your guy, start filling out the other positions, as there’s some solid talent you can tack on later.
All-Around Strategy
If you find yourself with a top-5 selection on draft day, the all-around strategy is probably your best bet.
Players that fit the all-around narrative:
The reason these guys are so highly valued is because they really don’t hurt you in any one category (exception would be turnovers for guys like Durant, Harden, and Curry). For this reason, it wouldn’t be wise to pair one of these all-around players with someone that will destroy your FT% or really hurt your FG%.
If you take on a high turnover guy like Curry, Harden or Durant, just be mindful of that throughout the draft and target efficiency. You won’t be the best team in that category, but you certainly don’t have to punt it away either. And really, those guys will put up such ridiculous stat lines you won’t even glance at the turnover category.
Punting
I go in depth on the specific punting strategy I like to use in our punting column, but I’ll touch on it here. My basic strategy is to punt away FT% while also going with a soft punt of assists. The core players for this sort of team would involve some combination of the following players:
DeAndre Jordon
Rank vs. Fit
One last thing I want to cover is that rankings aren’t everything. If you blindly select your players based upon who has the highest ranking, you will not have a successful fantasy season. When you get deeper and deeper into your draft the rankings become more and more meaningless. Bump guys up on your board according to fit. Are you already dominant in blocks? Start shooting for other categories. Specialists will never have a high ranking, but if you find yourself lacking in a certain category, there’s nothing wrong with adding a guy like Tony Allen to your roster. While he won’t win you gold by himself, he may add balance to your roster in the right situations. Build a well-rounded team, and you will have success. Good luck.
