With the 2023 regular season over, it’s time to look back at how the rookie tight ends performed and where they stack up in dynasty and redraft leagues. For a more detailed description of what I mean when I reference a player’s production as a percentile (i.e., Charbonnet finished below the 50th percentile in yards), check out Part One of my running back breakdown. The short story is that it measures players against previous rookie seasons with similar draft capital. Higher numbers are better. The tight ends in this article may have slightly inflated numbers because pure blocking tight ends make their numbers look great in comparison. For example, Travis Kelce and Trevon Wesco functionally play different positions despite both being listed as tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Despite spending a first-round pick on Kincaid, the Bills insisted on platooning him with Dawson Knox early in the year. He didn’t cross an 80 percent route rate until Week 8 which was the first game in a stretch of injury-related absences for Knox. From Week 8 to Week 13, Kincaid averaged 6.2 receptions for 56 yards and scored twice. He nearly equaled Stefon Diggs in target share during this run. Knox returned in Week 14 and Kincaid’s numbers plummeted.
Kincaid’s season ended on a positive note as the Bills slowly called it quits on the 11.5-personnel experiment, opting to simply use Kincaid as a high-volume pass-catcher over the final five weeks (including the playoffs) of the season. The rookie finished his debut campaign ranked 18th in Pro Football Focus’s receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run. He flashed top-five upside, but an inconsistent role kept him out of the top echelon of rookie tight end seasons. With both he and Trey McBride turning 25 during the 2024 season, my dynasty rankings lean toward McBride, who posted far better numbers, counting and efficiency, this year.
Sam LaPorta, Lions
There honestly isn’t much to say about LaPorta’s rookie season because of how incredible it was. He finished with the most receptions by a rookie tight end ever while also landing inside the top five in both yards and fantasy points. He had an elite college profile, earned early Day Two draft capital, and finished as the TE1 overall in his first NFL campaign. The advanced metrics also loved LaPorta. He averaged 1.7 yards per route run which was top-10 among all tight ends in 2023 and among all rookie tight ends since 2010. LaPorta also ranked top-10 in ESPN’s Overall Score via their player-tracking data.
LaPorta’s rookie season already puts him on a career path similar to some of the greats. Rob Gronkowski and Kellen Winslow are the only tight ends with more fantasy points in a season before turning 25 years old. LaPorta turned 23 just after the end of the regular season. LaPorta is the TE1 overall in dynasty leagues and it’s not a close race.
Michael Mayer, Raiders
Mayer got off to a slow start as a rookie. He had some hiccups as a blocker in the summer program and the team deployed him in tandem with Austin Hooper early in the season. Mayer eventually took on a larger role, first crossing a 50 percent route share in Week 6. Still, Mayer never earned more than 79 percent of the team’s routes and struggled to earn targets. He earned a look on just 14 percent of his routes. The good news is that Mayer did damage when his team got him the ball.
Which TEs have been best after the catch this year? Some may surprise you.
— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) January 17, 2024
Trey McBride taught me never to write off a TE with draft capital after Year 1, no matter how inefficient...
...so Michael Mayer will likely be a target of mine this offseason. pic.twitter.com/gHhujXb9wW
Not only did he crush in yards after the catch, he also finished fourth among tight ends in missed tackles forced per reception and eighth in yards per catch. The most revealing stat is that he finished above the 70th percentile in fantasy points per game for a Day Two rookie. Our expectations for first-year tight ends should be tremendously low. Mayer’s rookie season compares closely to that of Dallas Goedert. Given that Mayer entered the league with a top-notch profile coming out of Notre Dame, he looks like an obvious buy heading into his second season.
Luke Musgrave, Packers
Musgrave only played in 11 games, so his season-long production—34 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown—undersells how strong his rookie season was. He came in above the 90th percentile in weekly catches, yards, and fantasy points for a Day Two rookie. On top of the missed time, Musgrave played through injuries or left mid-game on multiple occasions. He finished the year 23rd in yards per route run but excelled in ESPN’s Open Score, earning the eighth-highest mark for a tight end. With Jordan Love cooking and Musgrave under his rookie deal for three more seasons, Musgrave should rank as a low-end TE1 in dynasty leagues.
His teammate, Tucker Kraft, deserves a mention as well. Kraft stepped in for Musgrave after the latter went down with a lacerated kidney in the middle of the season. He averaged 3.8 catches for 47 yards in his six-game stretch with Musgrave on injured reserve. Had those numbers sustained for an entire season, Kraft would have crossed the 90th percentile in catches, yards, and fantasy points for a rookie tight end. Kraft was a backup for much of the year, so we can’t look solely at his games as a starter. We can, however, give him some extra credit for producing when called upon. With Musgrave clearly ahead of him on the depth chart, it may be a few years before he is an exciting dynasty asset.
Other Names of Note:
Darnell Washington averaged .44 yards per route run and earned a dismal PFF receiving grade. He spent the majority of his rookie season blocking and would normally have a slim shot at ascending beyond that role in the coming seasons. However, new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith used 12-personnel at the highest rate in the league last year. His 41.5 percent clip was 23.4 percent higher than the Steelers’ usage of 12-personnel. I doubt we get a Washington breakout in 2024, but I’d bet on his usage rising.
Rams tight end Davis Allen didn’t play much as a rookie but did show up in the pair of games he got the starter’s treatment. In two games with a snap share over 70 percent, Allen totaled eight catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Tyler Higbee unlikely to be ready for the start of the 2024 season because of a torn ACL, Allen could be in a spot to take on the starting job to open the year.