2019 Expected Receiving Touchdowns

TD Rate by Yardline

This isn’t a surprise, but the best predictor of receiving touchdowns is how close the pass catcher is to the end zone. Amazing. The chart above shows the exact relationship between yards away from the end zone and the receiving touchdown rate. A target that’s 80 yards from the end zone has a 1% chance of scoring a touchdown, while a target from 10 yards out has a 24% chance of ending in a score.

Because touchdowns are worth six points in fantasy football, knowing which pass catchers are in spots where they can score is obviously important. That’s why I built a logistic regression model that predicted the chance of a receiving touchdown for every single target of the 2019 season. I then added up the predicted receiving touchdown totals for every single player who had a target to figure out which receivers played above/below expectations in 2019:

TDRegression

The chart above has every pass catcher’s predicted receiving touchdowns from my model (x-axis) and actual receiving touchdowns (y-axis). The players labeled on the bottom are positive regression candidates -- they were unlucky, maybe bad, in 2019 but should be better in 2020 if their usage stays the same -- while the players at the top are negative regression candidates. [[ad:athena]]

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Top 100 Pass Catchers in Expected Receiving TDs

Rank	Pass Catcher	Receiving TDs	Predicted	TDs +/-
1	Michael Thomas	9	9.0	0.0
2	Julian Edelman	8	8.6	-0.6
3	Cooper Kupp	10	7.7	2.3
4	Jarvis Landry	7	7.5	-0.5
5	Keenan Allen	6	7.4	-1.4
6	Travis Kelce	5	7.3	-2.3
7	Courtland Sutton	6	7.0	-1.0
8	Allen Robinson	7	6.9	0.1
9	Zach Ertz	6	6.9	-0.9
10	Davante Adams	5	6.9	-1.9
11	Mike Evans	9	6.7	2.3
12	Julio Jones	6	6.6	-0.6
13	Tyler Lockett	8	6.5	1.5
14	James White	5	6.4	-1.4
15	DeAndre Hopkins	7	6.4	0.6
16	Christian McCaffrey	4	6.3	-2.3
17	Kenny Golladay	11	6.2	4.8
18	Austin Ekeler	8	6.1	1.9
19	Tyler Higbee	3	6.1	-3.1
20	George Kittle	5	6.0	-1.0
21	DK Metcalf	8	6.0	2.0
22	Chris Godwin	9	6.0	3.0
23	Larry Fitzgerald	6	6.0	0.0
24	Tyler Boyd	6	5.7	0.3
25	Curtis Samuel	6	5.6	0.4
26	Jamison Crowder	6	5.5	0.5
27	D.J. Moore	4	5.5	-1.5
28	D.J. Chark	8	5.4	2.6
29	Austin Hooper	7	5.4	1.6
30	Mark Andrews	10	5.4	4.6
31	Deebo Samuel	3	5.3	-2.3
32	Odell Beckham	4	5.3	-1.3
33	Emmanuel Sanders	5	5.2	-0.2
34	DeVante Parker	10	5.2	4.8
35	Marvin Jones	9	5.1	3.9
36	Robert Woods	3	5.0	-2.0
37	Mike Williams	2	5.0	-3.0
38	Greg Olsen	3	4.9	-1.9
39	Christian Kirk	3	4.8	-1.8
40	Alvin Kamara	1	4.8	-3.8
41	Terry McLaurin	7	4.7	2.3
42	Dede Westbrook	3	4.7	-1.7
43	Jack Doyle	5	4.7	0.3
44	Auden Tate	2	4.6	-2.6
45	Darren Waller	4	4.5	-0.5
46	Dallas Goedert	5	4.5	0.5
47	Russell Gage	1	4.5	-3.5
48	Jason Witten	4	4.4	-0.4
49	Hunter Renfrow	4	4.4	-0.4
50	John Brown	6	4.4	1.6
51	Mohamed Sanu	2	4.3	-2.3
52	Danny Amendola	2	4.3	-2.3
53	Marquise Brown	7	4.2	2.8
54	Michael Gallup	6	4.2	1.8
55	Duke Johnson	3	4.2	-1.2
56	Cole Beasley	7	4.2	2.8
57	Jared Cook	9	4.2	4.8
58	Leonard Fournette	0	4.1	-4.1
59	Hunter Henry	6	4.0	2.0
60	Anthony Miller	2	4.0	-2.0
61	Amari Cooper	8	4.0	4.0
62	Tyreek Hill	7	4.0	3.0
63	Chris Conley	5	3.9	1.1
64	Aaron Jones	3	3.9	-0.9
65	Sterling Shepard	3	3.9	-0.9
66	Jacob Hollister	4	3.9	0.1
67	Calvin Ridley	7	3.8	3.2
68	Tarik Cohen	3	3.8	-0.8
69	Devonta Freeman	4	3.8	0.2
70	Jimmy Graham	3	3.7	-0.7
71	Preston Williams	3	3.7	-0.7
72	Ezekiel Elliott	2	3.7	-1.7
73	Evan Engram	3	3.7	-0.7
74	Mike Gesicki	5	3.6	1.4
75	Tyler Eifert	3	3.6	-0.6
76	Alex Erickson	1	3.6	-2.6
77	Sammy Watkins	3	3.6	-0.6
78	Zach Pascal	6	3.6	2.4
79	Alshon Jeffery	4	3.5	0.5
80	Josh Hill	3	3.5	-0.5
81	Gerald Everett	2	3.4	-1.4
82	Randall Cobb	3	3.4	-0.4
83	Phillip Dorsett	5	3.4	1.6
84	Le’Veon Bell	1	3.4	-2.4
85	Robby Anderson	5	3.4	1.6
86	Darren Fells	7	3.4	3.6
87	Kyle Rudolph	6	3.3	2.7
88	Tyrell Williams	8	3.3	4.7
89	A.J. Brown	8	3.3	4.7
90	Steven Sims	4	3.3	0.7
91	Noah Fant	3	3.2	-0.2
92	Eric Ebron	3	3.2	-0.2
93	Miles Sanders	3	3.2	-0.2
94	Darius Slayton	8	3.2	4.8
95	C.J. Uzomah	2	3.2	-1.2
96	Nelson Agholor	3	3.1	-0.1
97	T.Y. Hilton	5	3.1	1.9
98	Will Fuller	3	3.1	-0.1
99	Geronimo Allison	2	3.1	-1.1
100	Dawson Knox	2	3.0	-1.0

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The Most Efficient Receiving TD Scorers of 2019

Some of these pass catchers are negative regression candidates for 2020 as long as their usage stays the same, but most of these pass catchers are just really talented. If you think any of these pass catchers aren’t very talented, then you should not take them in 2020 fantasy drafts after overperforming versus expectations this past season.

Rank	Pass Catcher	Receiving TDs	Predicted	TDs +/-
1	Jared Cook	9	4.2	4.8
2	Darius Slayton	8	3.2	4.8
3	Kenny Golladay	11	6.2	4.8
4	DeVante Parker	10	5.2	4.8
5	A.J. Brown	8	3.3	4.7
6	Tyrell Williams	8	3.3	4.7
7	Mark Andrews	10	5.4	4.6
8	Breshad Perriman	7	2.4	4.6
9	Amari Cooper	8	4.0	4.0
10	Mecole Hardman	6	2.0	4.0
11	Marvin Jones	9	5.1	3.9
12	Adam Thielen	6	2.3	3.7
13	Taysom Hill	6	2.3	3.7
14	Tre’Quan Smith	5	1.3	3.7
15	Darren Fells	7	3.4	3.6
16	Golden Tate	6	2.6	3.4
17	Mark Ingram	5	1.8	3.2
18	Calvin Ridley	7	3.8	3.2
19	Stefon Diggs	6	2.9	3.1
20	Tyreek Hill	7	4.0	3.0
21	Chris Godwin	9	6.0	3.0
22	Foster Moreau	5	2.1	2.9
23	Cole Beasley	7	4.2	2.8
24	Marquise Brown	7	4.2	2.8
25	Ryan Griffin	5	2.3	2.7
26	David Johnson	5	2.3	2.7
27	Kyle Rudolph	6	3.3	2.7
28	D.J. Chark	8	5.4	2.6
29	Willie Snead	5	2.5	2.5
30	Tajae Sharpe	4	1.5	2.5
31	Cameron Brate	5	2.5	2.5
32	Zach Pascal	6	3.6	2.4
33	Kenny Stills	4	1.6	2.4
34	Mike Evans	9	6.7	2.3
35	Cooper Kupp	10	7.7	2.3
36	Terry McLaurin	7	4.7	2.3
37	Jamaal Williams	5	2.8	2.2
38	Taylor Gabriel	4	1.8	2.2
39	Will Dissly	4	1.8	2.2
40	Kendrick Bourne	5	2.8	2.2
41	Diontae Johnson	5	3.0	2.0
42	Hunter Henry	6	4.0	2.0
43	DK Metcalf	8	6.0	2.0
44	T.Y. Hilton	5	3.1	1.9
45	Austin Ekeler	8	6.1	1.9
46	Michael Gallup	6	4.2	1.8
47	DeSean Jackson	2	0.2	1.8
48	Ricky Seals-Jones	4	2.2	1.8
49	Demarcus Robinson	4	2.3	1.7
50	Brandon Bolden	2	0.3	1.7
51	John Brown	6	4.4	1.6
52	Austin Hooper	7	5.4	1.6
53	Robby Anderson	5	3.4	1.6
54	Phillip Dorsett	5	3.4	1.6
55	Blake Jarwin	3	1.5	1.5
56	Tyler Lockett	8	6.5	1.5
57	John Ross	3	1.6	1.4
58	Justin Watson	3	1.6	1.4
59	Mike Gesicki	5	3.6	1.4
60	Miles Boykin	3	1.7	1.3
61	Derrick Henry	2	0.7	1.3
62	Keelan Cole	3	1.8	1.2
63	James Conner	3	1.9	1.1
64	Chris Conley	5	3.9	1.1
65	Dan Arnold	2	0.9	1.1
66	Peyton Barber	2	1.0	1.0
67	James Washington	3	2.0	1.0
68	Jonnu Smith	3	2.0	1.0
69	Allen Lazard	3	2.0	1.0
70	James O’Shaughnessy	2	1.0	1.0
71	Kaden Smith	3	2.0	1.0
72	Raheem Mostert	2	1.0	1.0
73	Elandon Roberts	1	0.0	1.0
74	Rico Gafford	1	0.0	1.0

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The Least Efficient Receiving TD Scorers of 2019

Some of these pass catchers are positive regression candidates for 2020 as long as their usage stays the same, but most of these receivers are just bad. If you think any of these pass catchers are truly talented, then you should get them slightly undervalued in 2020 fantasy drafts after underperforming versus expectations this past season.

Rank	Pass Catcher	Receiving TDs	Prediction	TDs +/-
1	Leonard Fournette	0	4.1	-4.1
2	Alvin Kamara	1	4.8	-3.8
3	Russell Gage	1	4.5	-3.5
4	Tyler Higbee	3	6.1	-3.1
5	Mike Williams	2	5.0	-3.0
6	Zay Jones	0	2.7	-2.7
7	Nyheim Hines	0	2.7	-2.7
8	Auden Tate	2	4.6	-2.6
9	Alex Erickson	1	3.6	-2.6
10	Kelvin Harmon	0	2.5	-2.5
11	Le’Veon Bell	1	3.4	-2.4
12	Mohamed Sanu	2	4.3	-2.3
13	Deebo Samuel	3	5.3	-2.3
14	Travis Kelce	5	7.3	-2.3
15	Christian McCaffrey	4	6.3	-2.3
16	Kenyan Drake	0	2.3	-2.3
17	Danny Amendola	2	4.3	-2.3
18	Chris Thompson	0	2.1	-2.1
19	Jakobi Meyers	0	2.1	-2.1
20	Phillip Lindsay	0	2.0	-2.0
21	Robert Woods	3	5.0	-2.0
22	Anthony Miller	2	4.0	-2.0
23	Jarius Wright	0	2.0	-2.0
24	Greg Olsen	3	4.9	-1.9
25	Davante Adams	5	6.9	-1.9
26	Isaiah Ford	0	1.9	-1.9
27	Rex Burkhead	0	1.8	-1.8
28	Dalvin Cook	0	1.8	-1.8
29	O.J. Howard	1	2.8	-1.8
30	Christian Kirk	3	4.8	-1.8
31	Patrick Laird	0	1.8	-1.8
32	Albert Wilson	1	2.7	-1.7
33	Dede Westbrook	3	4.7	-1.7
34	Benjamin Watson	0	1.7	-1.7
35	Ezekiel Elliott	2	3.7	-1.7
36	Nick Chubb	0	1.7	-1.7
37	Jaylen Samuels	1	2.6	-1.6
38	Dare Ogunbowale	1	2.6	-1.6
39	Cordarrelle Patterson	0	1.6	-1.6
40	Bennie Fowler	0	1.6	-1.6
41	DeAndre Washington	0	1.6	-1.6
42	Mack Hollins	0	1.5	-1.5
43	Jalen Richard	0	1.5	-1.5
44	D.J. Moore	4	5.5	-1.5
45	Tim Patrick	0	1.5	-1.5
46	Melvin Gordon	1	2.5	-1.5
47	Gerald Everett	2	3.4	-1.4
48	James White	5	6.4	-1.4
49	Keenan Allen	6	7.4	-1.4
50	DaeSean Hamilton	1	2.4	-1.4
51	Sony Michel	0	1.4	-1.4
52	Odell Beckham	4	5.3	-1.3
53	Latavius Murray	1	2.3	-1.3
54	Christian Blake	0	1.3	-1.3
55	Demaryius Thomas	1	2.2	-1.2
56	Antonio Callaway	0	1.2	-1.2
57	Duke Johnson	3	4.2	-1.2
58	Josh Gordon	1	2.2	-1.2
59	Javon Wims	1	2.2	-1.2
60	Justice Hill	0	1.2	-1.2
61	Greg Ward	1	2.2	-1.2
62	C.J. Uzomah	2	3.2	-1.2
63	Justin Hardy	0	1.1	-1.1
64	Adam Shaheen	0	1.1	-1.1
65	Isaiah McKenzie	1	2.1	-1.1
66	Luke Stocker	0	1.1	-1.1
67	Royce Freeman	1	2.1	-1.1
68	Geronimo Allison	2	3.1	-1.1
69	Trey Burton	0	1.1	-1.1
70	Giovani Bernard	1	2.1	-1.1
71	Jesse James	0	1.0	-1.0
72	George Kittle	5	6.0	-1.0
73	Courtland Sutton	6	7.0	-1.0
74	Seth DeValve	0	1.0	-1.0
75	Dawson Knox	2	3.0	-1.0
76	LeSean McCoy	1	2.0	-1.0
77	Ty Johnson	0	1.0	-1.0
78	Josh Jacobs	0	1.0	-1.0
79	Jakeem Grant	0	1.0	-1.0
80	KeeSean Johnson	1	2.0	-1.0
81	Vyncint Smith	0	1.0	-1.0

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What’s Next?

1. 2019 Deep Target Report - Expected vs. Actual PPR Points

2. 2019 Receiving TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

3. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WRs)

4. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TEs)

5. 2019 Rushing TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

6. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (RBs)

7. 2019 Passing TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

8. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (QBs)

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have questions or ideas on what to study next.