Season’s greetings and a (soon-to-be) Happy New Year to anybody who has stuck with this series over the last few weeks. If this is your first time checking it out, you can get caught up on the players mentioned in previous articles with the links below.
- Dynasty Watch: Early Declares Incoming
- Dynasty Watch: Early Declares Incoming 2.0
- Dynasty Watch: Early Declares Incoming 3.0
We touched on some exciting young talents in last week’s article, particularly at the running back and quarterback positions, as the long-awaited Bijan Robinson announcement made it’s way to mainstream media.
OFFICIAL:
— Noah Gross (@noah_gross27) December 19, 2022
Texas Longhorns RB Bijan Robinson announces he will declare for the 2023 NFL Draft. #HookEm | @KXAN_News pic.twitter.com/eyIZpcHivh
This week, we have a few more exciting players to touch on, including two Power Five running backs who are ready to make the leap to the pro levels. While one of these backs spent four seasons with two different programs, the other was a three-year contributor who spent his final two seasons resetting school record books.
We also touch on arguably the most talented slot receiver of the class. With only a few days left of bowl season, the NFL Draft talk continues to ramp up. Here are three more players to know before heading into the New Year!
Note: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, CollegeFootballData.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Sean Tucker, RB (Syracuse)
Rushing: 206 carries, 1,060 yards, 11 TDs
Receiving: 36 receptions, 254 yards, 2 TDs
If this were any other running back class, Tucker would have an outside chance at being the first back off the board. He entered this season already regarded as one of the best in the nation and set Syracuse’s single-season rushing record in 2021 when he rushed for 246-1496-12 in his second year with the program.
Tucker took a bit of a step back as a runner in 2022, rushing for 1,060 yards while averaging 5.2 YPC -- almost a full yard down from the 6.1 YPC he averaged in 2021. Perhaps more concerning is his 2.79 YCO/ATT, which ranked 113th in the nation among running backs with at least 100 carries on the season -- a steep drop from the 4.11 YCO/ATT he averaged in 2021.
For a quick look at Tucker’s advanced rushing metrics and numbers, here’s a screenshot of his career stats per PFF.com.
Tucker still forced missed tackles at an impressive rate (20.1%) this past season, which is only a few points below his career missed tackles forced rate of 23.1%. You could argue that his drop in yards after contact is more reflective of teams selling out to stop him than it is a decline.
It is possible, however, that Tucker slightly outplayed everyone’s expectations last season and that his 2022 campaign offered a more realistic look at what we should expect at the next level.
At 5-foot-10, 210-pounds, Tucker isn’t exactly built to run through opposing defenders. He also doesn’t look like the fastest player on the field, even when he is ripping off long gains. Still, a tremendous talent as both a runner and receiver, teams will love the body of work Tucker put together during his time at Syracuse. In addition to his rushing numbers, he totaled 64 receptions for 622 yards and four touchdowns for his career, displaying adequate hands that should translate to the NFL.
Eric Gray, RB (Oklahoma)
Rushing: 213 carries, 1,364 yards, 11 TDs
Receiving: 33 receptions, 229 yards, 0 TDs
Eric Gray left Tennessee after the 2020 season in hopes of landing a more significant role at Oklahoma. In his first season with the Sooners, despite appearing in 13 games, Gray rushed just 78 times for 412 yards and two touchdowns. It was a significant drop from the 157-772-4 he had posted in his final season at Tennessee when he played in just nine games.
Instead, Gray’s first season at Oklahoma was spent behind Kennedy Brooks (198-1253-13), although he would spell Brooks on passing downs, as Gray led all Sooner running backs with a receiving line of 23-229-2 in 2021.
This season, Gray emerged not only as Oklahoma’s lead back, but as one of the top backs in the nation. His 1,364 rushing yards were good for 15th-most in the nation, while his 3.42 YCO/ATT was good for 46th. A true dual-threat in the receiving game, Gray’s 33 receptions tied for 17th-most in the nation while his 99 career receptions will rank near the top of any running back in the class.
All season long, Gray displayed an ability to break off explosive plays. His 21 breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yards) per PFF tied for 10th most in the nation with some guys named Bijan Robinson (Texas) and Mohamed Ibrahim (Minnesota), who will also hear their names called in next year’s draft. Ranking slightly ahead of Gray were Keaton Mitchell (East Carolina), DeWayne McBride (UAB) Zach Charbonnet (UCLA) and Chase Brown (Illinois), to name a few. All of these players will likely be playing on Sundays next year, which is my way of suggesting Gray is in excellent company here.
Gray will need to impress at the combine to earn Day 2 draft capital, but in the right situation, he could contribute to an NFL team as early as Week 1 -- particularly on passing downs. He’d offer additional upside in the passing game if he can improve as a blocker, but his receiving ability will make him an immediate offensive threat.
Josh Downs, WR (North Carolina)
Receiving: 94 receptions, 1,029 yards, 11 TDs
Fantasy managers love slot receivers for all the “easy” points they’ve provided over the years. Guys like Julian Edelman, Jamison Crowder and Hunter Renfrow (to name a few) have made a living off their roles as elite slot receivers. Fantasy managers have profited off their roles as elite slot receivers as well.
For those looking for the next great slot receiver, look no further than North Carolina’s Josh Downs. Perhaps Downs can offer more than a slot receiver role at the next level, but having seen 89% of his snaps from the slot during his time with the Tar Heels, it seems unlikely an NFL team will force the 5-foot-10, 175-pound receiver to the outside.
During his final two seasons at UNC, Downs emerged as an absolute target hog. Per PFF, Downs drew 260 targets in his final two seasons with the Tar Heels, turning them into 195 receptions for 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging a solid 12.1 yards per reception.
Among Power Five receivers who saw 200+ snaps from the slot, Downs ranked 11th in YAC (375) and was 23rd among all qualified Power Five receivers in YPRR (2.17). He’s regarded by many as one of the top receivers in this year’s class thanks in part to his highlight reel plays, ability to get open against both zone and man coverage and his elite speed.
In a league that loves to spread the ball around and run 11-personnel at a high-rate, Downs should see plenty of work in his first NFL season. Dynasty managers will value him based on his landing spot and the offensive personnel around him, but there’s no denying his ability to be a difference maker in the right scheme.
