DFS Fades Week 13
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR on the Oakland Raiders (or, rather, everyone is). I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
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So in Week 13, I’m fading…
Kareem Hunt: Duh. Just making sure to cover all bases. Spencer Warebecomes an instant value play vs. Oakland, assuming Hunt doesn’t play.
Lamar Miller: Coming off a huge primetime performance, Miller is bound to appeal to recency bias and have higher than warranted ownership. A couple factors temper my own enthusiasm. First, he had 12 carries. Alfred Blue actually had one more than Miller Monday night. He had the huge 97-yard TD run, a fantastic play no doubt about it, but without it, he has a very mediocre night. In fact, the last time he surpassed 100 rushing yards, Miller followed it up with his more typical 48 total yards. The Browns can seem like an appealing matchup, but neither Joe Mixon nor Tevin Coleman scored on them in the past two weeks, and Mixon only saved his fantasy day with his pass-catching ability. I see a return to mediocre for Miller this weekend.
Patrick Mahomes:Yes, of course this could backfire. The rationale isn’t that Mahomes will be bad; rather it’s that he won’t need to be as good as his ($9500 FD) salary demands. Oakland hasn’t been able to stop anyone in a long time and the Chiefs Defense is coming on lately, meaning this just isn’t one of those games where the pressure will be on Mahomes to throw 4 TDs.
Larry Fitzgerald/Christian Kirk: As I wrote in the Bargain column this week, I’m pretty high on the affordable Green Bay defense. It’s a unit that thrives at home in the cold traditionally and they are literally playing for their playoff life. Moreover, Arizona scores fewer points than any other team in the league. Under these circumstances, I expect Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones (did you see that they both celebrate birthdays this Sunday?) to dominate this game, leaving very little for the Cardinals skill players. I could include David Johnson here too, but I think the receivers are a bit more tempting given their low salaries and the good on-paper matchup with a generous Packers secondary. I still think Josh Rosen will continue to improve and there will be weeks I like the Cardinals receivers, but it’s not this one.
Injury Risks:
Stefon Diggs: As ample reports are out suggesting Diggs will play, this is nothing to worry about. Diggs is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game in his last three games, and has scored an average of 10 more fantasy points in road games this season. Hopefully the injury tag holds his ownership down, as I think both he and the more popular Adam Thielen have big games in New England.
A.J. Green:Will be back! Temper expectations, however, with Jeff Driskel throwing the ball in his direction (I don’t know Driskel well enough to say that he’ll be throwing it directly toGreen…). Tyler Boyd is a fade for me this week too.
Marlon Mack: Practiced in full Thursday and Friday, but will be a game day call. It’s a rough matchup for him, so with several other RB options in his price range and lower, I’m not rushing to get him into my lineups.
Sam Darnold: It doesn’t much matter to me who quarterbacks the Jets in Tennessee this week. This defense has been solid, except in the past two weeks on the road vs. divisional opponents. The Titans D/ST is a top D/ST play; all the Jets are fadeable.
Calvin Ridley: Even only slightly gimpy against the Ravens isn’t a great spot for Ridley.
Matt Breida: Hopefully he’s just being extra cautious, because I think he’ll produce in this game, despite it being in Seattle. The Seahawks aren’t as bad a RB matchup as was once the case and Breida is crushing it.
Gus Edwards:Just a ‘don’t worry’ note here, as he practiced fully Friday. Should be a great spot vs. Atlanta, one of DFSers’ favorite RB matchups.
Keke Coutee:Perhaps more worrying than his hamstring is the rapport Deshaun Watson showed with Demaryius Thomas in Week 12. Thomas is still too cheap considering his 2-TD game came after Week 13 salaries were set.
David Njoku: Njoku has enjoyed a string of good TE matchups, having his best game of the season in Cincy last week. Hopefully his knee limitation is just maintenance, but watch for news over the weekend. Houston is another top 6 matchup for him.
In Week 13, players with high expected ownership areLamar Jackson, Doug Martin, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey, Jameis Winston, David Njoku, D.J. Moore, Cam Newton, Phillip Lindsay, Seattle D/ST and Chiefs D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.
