A close look at NFL teams that regularly establish the pass in the red zone deserves an equally close look at offenses establishing the run when they smell the end zone paint.
Below is a breakdown of six offenses that should once again be among the NFL’s run heaviest inside the 20 (red zone) and inside the 10 (green zone). Some of these offenses might be subject to change based on new offensive coordinators and coaching staffs, or development of quarterbacks leading to more trust in the area of the field that matters the most.
I based this analysis on pass rate over expected (PROE) inside the 20 and inside the 10-yard line and neutral red zone pass rate.
Washington Commanders
- Pass rate over expected inside the 20: -13 percent (32nd)
- PROE inside the 10: -13.5 percent (31st)
This one isn’t easy to parse because we have to examine the splits with the oft-injured Jayden Daniels on and off the field and project how the Washington offense will look under new OC David Blough as he takes over for Kliff Kingsbury, who did nothing wrong.
A look back to 2024, when Daniels played 17 games, might be instructive (offenses with mobile quarterbacks are never going to be giga pass-heavy in any part of the field; that’s just the way it is). The Commanders in ‘24 were the fifth run-heaviest red zone offense, ten percent below their expected pass rate. They led the NFL in green zone rushes (68) and scored more green zone rushing touchdowns than anyone but the Bills and Lions.
Washington continued hammering the run inside the ten yard line last season with Daniels missing ten games and parts of others. They ranked fifth in green zone carries (53) and seventh in green zone rushing touchdowns (15). Only the Colts and Bills had more inside-the-five rushes than Washington. This proved valuable for Chris Rodriguez, who converted five of his 13 inside-the-five carries into scores. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, meanwhile, had two touchdowns on eight carries inside the five. A year earlier, in 2024, Commanders lead back Brian Robinson was second in red zone carries (59) and second in red zone rushing TDs (13). It’s a (very) valuable role.
Daniels drafters in 2024 might be old enough to remember that this red zone run commitment was good for the dual-threat QB. He totaled 16 rushes inside the 10 that season and scored on five of them. There’s always the possibility that Bough and the Washington coaching staff will pull back on Daniels’ rushing opportunities near the end zone this season to protect their slight franchise QB.
Baltimore Ravens
- Pass rate over expected inside the 20: -12.5 percent (31st)
- PROE inside the 10: -8.5 (25th)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens surely tried to be a run-first red zone squad last season, as they have been for most of Jackson’s career in Baltimore. The Ravens in 2025 had 52 green zone rushing attempts -- fifth most -- but struggled to be efficient with those carries. Their 43 percent green zone rushing success rate was fourth worst and their stuff rate (56 percent) was middling.
They did manage 13 rushing scores inside the 10, however. For fantasy nerds, that’s all that really matters. The Derrick Henry era in Baltimore has not, surprisingly, seen the Ravens go ultra run-heavy inside the 20. As recently as 2024, they ranked 15th in red zone PROE. Even then, Jackson managed 64 red zone passes, 14th among quarterbacks and about half as many as league leader Joe Burrow.
That’s the main takeaway here: Baltimore pass catchers are never going to have a lot of red or green zone opportunities as long as Jackson is under center. I don’t think that changes under new OC Declan Doyle. Mark Andrews, for example, led the team in red zone targets in 2024 and 2025 while ranking outside the top-30 red zone target getters overall in each season.
This isn’t by accident. Andrews last year had a whopping 54 percent first-read target share inside the 10 yard line. Zay Flowers was second with a 15 percent share. Isaiah Liikely following John Harbaugh to the Giants could translate into another enviable red zone role in Doyle’s offense.
Chicago Bears
- Pass rate over expected inside the 20: -9.8 percent (29th)
- PROE inside the 10: -12 percent (31st)
The thing that separates the Bears from most other teams on this list is that Ben Johnson’s rushing offense was pretty good near the goal line in 2025. Chicago last season had the seventh highest rushing success rate inside the 10, and the fifth best inside the 20.
The Bears totaled 52 green zone carries in 2025, the seventh most in the NFL. This kind of run-first, run-only red zone approach can easily create a top-three fantasy running back -- if that back gets all (or most) of the high-value touches near the goal line. That, as you probably know, did not happen last season. D’Andre Swift logged 24 inside-the-10 attempts, tenth most among all running backs, while Kyle Monangai had 19. Both Chicago backs had five inside-the-five opportunities: Swift scored five touchdowns and Monangai had four scores.
D'ANDRE SWIFT IS IN FOR THE TOUCHDOWN
— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2026
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We can expect more of the same in 2026. If Johnson keeps establishing it and protecting Caleb Williams from red zone mistakes — Williams last year ranked 22nd out of 33 qualifying QBs in red zone accuracy — Swift and Monangai should have plenty of touchdown juice considering where they’re being drafted.
The Bears’ propensity for running the rock near the goal line won’t ding Colston Loveland’s prospects, in case you were wondering. Loveland in 2025 led the team with a 26 percent first-read target share inside the 20, seeing a team-high 13 looks in the red zone. The Loveland touchdowns will continue until morale improves.
New Orleans Saints
- Pass rate over expected inside the 20: -9 percent (28th)
- PROE inside the 10: -17.6 percent (32nd)
The natural question here is whether Kellen Moore’s offense operated differently in the red zone with Tyler Shough under center in the second half of the 2025 season. The answer is decidedly no: The Saints were 29th in red zone PROE from Week 8 to 18, and ranked dead last in PROE inside the 10, going 31 percent below their expected pass rate.
This unwavering commitment to establish it near the end zone didn’t lead to much in the way of opportunity in production. The Saints logged 33 green zone rushes all season, the ninth fewest in the NFL. Only the lowly Raiders had fewer inside-the-10 rushing scores, and only the Texans had a worse inside-the-10 rushing success rate. Maybe you know this if you accidentally rostered a New Orleans running back in 2025.
It would be odd if Moore sticks with one of the league’s run heaviest red zone approaches in 2026. His lead back, Travis Etienne, is the worst green zone runner in football by almost every measure, and Alvin Kamara just flat-out stinks. There’s also this: Moore has not always been so stringently run-first in scoring position. In 2022, as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, Moore’s unit was top seven in pass rate over expected inside the 20 and inside the 10. His red zone approach might be dictated by personnel more than a fundamental belief that the football shall be run, not passed, into the end zone.
Kellen, if you’re listening: Let Tyler cook near the end zone this season.
Seattle Seahawks
- Pass rate over expected inside the 20: -8.9 percent (27th)
- PROE inside the 10: -9 percent (27th)
Under former OC Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks were tenth in inside-the-five rushes (29) and fifth in red zone rushing attempts (99). There was a lot of touchdown juice to squeeze from the Seattle backfield under Kubiak. It led to a lot of horror-movie Zach Charbonnet box scores made less frightening with a touchdown or two.
It’s hard to say, of course, whether this run-heavy red zone approach will hold up under new Seahawks OC Brian Fleury. One spreadsheet-enjoyer’s guess would be that the run-first stuff will continue because that’s the way head coach Mike Macdonald wants it. Macdonald, it should be remembered, axed his entire offensive coaching staff after a 2024 season in which the Hawks ranked among the NFL’s pass-heaviest teams. That would not do.
More of this approach in 2026 could mean good, touchdown-heavy things for rookie Jadarian Price, with Charbonnet widely expected to miss a chunk of the regular season after sustaining a late-season knee injury in 2025. Price would likely profile as Seattle’s best goal line option, though George Holani and Emanuel Wilson could prove exceedingly annoying if Macdonald and Fleury see fit.
The Seahawks missing Charbonnet, their big-bodied goal line banger, could lead to a more balanced or even pass-first red zone approach in 2026. That sort of shift would supercharge Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s already-ludicrous upside and boost the prospects of AJ Barner and Cooper Kupp. Barner, for his part, turned six inside-the-ten looks into three touchdowns in 2025. He also happens to be the team’s go-to tush push option near the goal line. It makes one think.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Pass rate over expected inside the 20: -8.6 percent (26th)
- PROE inside the 10: -10.8 percent (29th)
It’s hardly a state secret that Jalen Hurts is going to score a bunch of short-range touchdowns thanks to the Eagles’ tush push being all but unstoppable. Hurts, with 16 inside-the-five rouchdowns since the start of the 2024 season, has as sturdy a floor as any QB in the league.
Jalen Hurts rushing TD?
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 5, 2025
Jalen Hurts rushing TD 😤pic.twitter.com/hqUsmzoDA9
This, of course, doesn’t leave much in the way of easy touchdowns for Saquon Barkley, who last season logged a meager nine inside-the-five rushes (for -3 yards and one touchdown). Devin Singletary, Sean Tucker, and Woody Marks had as many rushes inside the five as Barkley in 2025. That’s bleak. In 2024 Barkley saw 13 rushing chances inside the five, trailing Hurts’ 18. Barkley and Hurts each had 28 green zone rushes that season. Unlike most unquestioned lead backs, Barkley needs to score his touchdowns from outside the easy range. But you probably knew that.
Dallas Goedert led the Eagles last season with just nine targets inside the ten. He scored on an unsustainable eight of those looks. Goedert appeared to be the Eagles’ only plan if they were going to pass near the end zone: His 50 percent first-read red zone target rate was easily the highest among all Philly pass catchers. It would be something of a surprise if Goedert doesn’t maintain that role in a new Eagles offense that will have heavy Shanahan/McVay influences.
