Mike McDaniel came to LA to do two things: Continue acting quirky in ways that make one question if his public persona is one long, Andy Kauffman-like bit, and get the most out of the uber-talented Justin Herbert.
I’m more confident in the first part, but just barely.
McDaniel said in January, shortly after landing the Chargers offensive coordinator gig, that Herbert, entering his seventh NFL season, “hasn’t neared the ceiling of what he is capable of.” That’s good to hear for both Chargers fans and fantasy folks because Herbert over the past three years has the same adjusted EPA per drop back as Kyler Murray, and below that of Tua Tagovailoa and Sam Darnold. Herbert over that stretch has been just about as accurate as Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones. This is not what one would call esteemed company.
“I think not relying too heavily on Justin’s ability to do above and beyond I think is critical,” McDaniel told reporters this offseason. “That’ll be one of the first things that we’ll try to do is take a little off his plate.”
Turning Herbert’s immense arm talent into an elite NFL passing attack will be McDaniel’s task in 2026. That he seems to understand this is, I think, good news.
2025 Los Angeles Chargers Stats (Rank)
- Points per game: 21.6 (20th)
- Total yards per game: 334 (12th)
- Plays per game: 64.4 (3rd)
- Dropbacks per game: 42.2 (6th)
- Dropback EPA per play: 0.02 (23rd)
- Designed rush attempts per game: 25 (21st)
- Rush EPA per play: -0.08 (23rd)
Passing Game
QB: Justin Herbert, Trey Lance
WR: Ladd McConkey, Brenan Thompson
WR: Tre Harris, Derius Davis
WR: Quentin Johnston, KeAndre Lambert-Smith
TE: Oronde Gadsden, David Njoku
First thing’s first: Former Chargers OC Greg Roman did nothing to maximize Justin Herbert and his best playmakers. Roman over two seasons as the head of the Bolts offense did nothing to establish an identity, talking a big game about establishing the run before going pass-heavy and sometimes turtling with run-first approaches when it made the least sense. Roman was a disaster for the entirety of his two years in LA.
McDaniel’s approach to offensive scheme and design stands in strong contrast to that of Roman, though both OCs bring a run-first philosophy (Miami usually had a bottom-half pass rate over expected under McDaniel). The Dolphins under McDaniel used motion on around 70 percent of their plays while Roman’s Chargers offense operated at a 50 percent rate. The Dolphins used more play action passing than Roman’s Chargers too. McDaniel’s offense overall made more effort to make the defense look, to keep defenders on their back foot, if only for a moment.
How will Herbert fit into the McDaniel system, which, like almost every modern offense, is a take on the Shanahan system? In 2025 Herbert ranked second among 34 qualifying QBs in accuracy on crossing and post patterns, routes that figure prominently into McDaniel’s scheme. Herbert was 17 percent over his expected completion rate on those throws.
It’s noteworthy that those throws were first-read attempts at a fairly low 58 percent clip, meaning these plays were not necessarily designed for Herbert to get it to the pass catchers running crossers and posts. He made the call on his own as a secondary or tertiary option and it worked out quite well, as Herbert’s 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt on those attempts ranked 11th among 34 quarterbacks.
Herbert’s fantasy prospects will hinge on his rushing involvement in the LA offense. Last year he logged a career high 83 rushing attempts for 499 yards and two touchdowns, averaging a healthy 6 yards per rush. That might have been a Greg Roman thing though. If McDaniel cuts down on the quarterback rushing, it could make Herbert more of a borderline QB1 rather than a mid-to-high-end QB1.
McConkey, after a highly efficient rookie campaign, ran ice cold in 2025. Last season he had one of the league’s 12 lowest rates of catchable targets. It wasn’t that Justin Herbert was particularly off-target last season: He ranked 14th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in on-target rate (77 percent), just ahead of Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow, and above league average.
Ladd McConkey scores his fourth receiving TD of the season ⚡️
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 10, 2025
PITvsLAC on NBC
Stream on #NFLPlus + Peacockpic.twitter.com/UuZwOK59pb
It’s not as if McConkey has never seen a high catchable target rate. In 2024 he had an 87 percent catchable target rate, sixth highest among receivers who had at least 30 targets. If he gets back to those numbers in 2026 under McDaniel, he’s probably going to be a top-12 receiver. My spreadsheets say McConkey has been quite good and efficient on pass routes used most often in McDaniel’s offense. Let Ladd cook, as I told the grocery store clerk last weekend before she alerted store security.
Chargers beat writers have done their best this offseason to steam up Johnston ahead of the regular season. Most recently, Sports Illustrated’s Thomas Martinez said Johnston, who had his fifth-year option picked up in April, is “built for” McDaniel’s system. I, for one, would save that label for McConkey, but I am a humble blogger who has never watched a game.
Johnston last season had a slight edge in air yards rate over Ladd (28 to 26 percent) while accounting for 22 percent of the team’s receiving yards in the 14 games he played. That’s all fine and good. Johnston’s 17 percent target per route run is not so fine or good. Unless McDaniel makes major changes to QJ’s usage in 2026, he’s going to remain a high-variance weekly option who will be (overly?) reliant on splash plays from Herbert. You could do worse though.
Justin Herbert to Quentin Johnston for the first TD of the night ⚡️#BoltUp pic.twitter.com/sIxivJort2
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) September 6, 2025
The Bolts took Brenen Thompson in the fourth round of the 2026 draft, and the rookie looks very much like a McDaniel Special. McDaniel likes fast guys who make the spreadsheets hum, and that’s what he’s getting in Thompson, who had 1,054 receiving yards and six touchdowns in his final season at Mississippi State.
Thompson has blazing fast straight-line speed, which, unfortunately, doesn’t matter at all for wideout prospects. His speed score at the Combine was middling (54th percentile) and his college target share (23 percent) was in the 66th percentile. He was targeted on a halfway decent 23 percent of his pass routes in 2025. It’s not a hateful profile, but not an impressive one either. That’s what you usually get with a fourth rounder.
If McDaniel is intent on getting creative with Thompson and the rookie can push his way into something beyond a rotational role in the LA offense, he could be interesting in PPR formats. He should start the year on waivers though.
Now to the Chargers tight end situation, one that could torment fantasy managers and analysts for the next six months. So it goes.
Outside a nice little rookie season run, Oronde Gadsden II did almost nothing down the stretch. In fact, he was largely phased out of the Chargers offense, running a route on 55 percent of the team’s drop backs over the season’s final month. Unless you’re being targeted at a wildly high rate - Gadsden was not — you’re not going to get away with it for fantasy purposes with that kind of usage. His overall numbers were fine: Gadsden was targeted on 18 percent of his routes, the third highest rate on the team; he was tied for the team lead in red zone targets (15); he had a first-read target rate of 14 percent; and ran about half of his routes from the slot.
Every catch from Oronde Gadsden II's 164-yard game pic.twitter.com/pGfzgdKkU6
— Tino ⚡️ (@TinoFromTheQ) March 19, 2026
It’s a profile with which we could work if the Bolts hadn’t gone out this offseason and loaded up on tight ends. They signed David Njoku in free agency, along with blocking tight end Charlie Kolar, who is seen by The Athletic’s Daniel Popper as LA’s No. 1 tight end “because of his complete skill set.” Kolar, in case you missed it, is a Shanny offense specialist. Though he could lead the team’s tight ends in snaps, it would be something of a shock if he’s regularly involved as a pass catcher. Save Kolar for point-per-block fantasy formats.
Njoku, a year after being benched in favor of Harold Fannin in Cleveland, appears to be the favorite to land what might be called the Jonnu Smith role in McDaniel’s offense (Jonnu had 86 receptions for 886 yards once upon a time for McDaniel’s Dolphins). ESPN’s Kris Rhim said in June that it’s “easy to envision” Njoku taking on a prominent role for the Bolts in 2026, as McDaniel and tight ends coach Chandler Henley create a “run-pass conflict” to flumox opposing defenses. This starts, naturally, with the tight end.
While it’s likely none of the LA tight ends will have a sparkling route rate in 2026, Njoku would be my pick to emerge as a usable fantasy option.
Run Game
RB: Omarion Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, Kimani Vidal
OL (L-R): Rashawn Slater, Jake Slaughter, Tyler Biadasz, Cole Strange, Joe Alt
Following a mostly-disappointing, injury-marred rookie campaign, Hampton enters a McDaniel offense that has not usually used the sort of rushing scheme that best fits Hampton, a tough runner who could not be more dissimilar from De’Von Achane, McDaniel’s backfield muse in Miami for the past few years.
About half of the Dolphins’ rushing attempts in 2025 were zone runs, whereas the Chargers used zone rushing at a 38 percent clip. McDaniel’s Dolphins ranked third in rush yards before contact on zone concepts; the Chargers were 28th. The Chargers, in fact, had a bottom three success rate on zone rushing attempts in 2025. Roman’s offense implemented plenty of man/gap rushing concepts, though Hampton wasn’t good on those carries either. He wasn’t good at all.
Hampton’s 39 percent success rate on 54 zone rushes last season ranked 69th out of 82 running backs, and 3.2 yards per carry ranked 74th. Hardly anyone was worse on zone rushes. Perhaps that means McDaniel will abandon his preferred zone rushing scheme for something that will be better for Hampton. That’s plausible. Maybe that’s what prompted Hampton to tell reporters this summer that McDaniel compares him to former Broncos great Terrell Davis, a player Hampton had never heard of.
That’s nice of Mike. I’ll hold off on penciling in Hampton for 2,000 rushing yards though.
I’ve talked way too much about Keaton Mitchell since I learned McDaniel put Mitchell’s face on a “Wanted” sign in the team’s headquarters ahead of free agency. McDaniel got his guy, with the Chargers signing Mitchell to a two-year contract worth $9.3 million.
#Chargers OC Mike McDaniel printed out wanted posters for Keaton Mitchell and Alec Ingold, and put the posters up on GM Joe Hortiz’s wall pic.twitter.com/6e1HdV05eY
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 17, 2026
Last season in Baltimore, the lightning-fast Mitchell led all backs in yards before contact per rush (4.47), a hallmark of lightning fast rushers who regularly blow by the first wave of defenders. This is why, if you squint hard enough, Mitchell might fit McDaniel’s offense as an arbitrage Achane.
Popper, a longtime Bolts beat writer, said in March that Mitchell’s “acceleration and threatening speed to the edge will thrive” in the Chargers offense. I’m not projecting Mitchell to be a 15-touch-per-game guy in the Chargers offense. I do think Mitchell is the kind of back who can do a lot with 8-10 weekly touches on well-designed rushes and screens in the running back-friendly McDaniel (Shanny) scheme.
Something to file away for the coming season, in case Hampton again struggles with injuries: Kimani Vidal in 2025 was among the most efficient runners on zone concept attempts.
2026 LA Chargers Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 9.5
Pick: Over (-140)
Let me be clear: I’m not buying into the perpetually cursed Bolts as a can’t-miss elite NFL team for 2026. I do think they should be able to sneak into double-digit wins considering their (relatively) soft regular season schedule and the addition of McDaniel as an understander of modern offensive football, unlike his predecessor.
A good defense — the Chargers have allowed the NFL’s fifth lowest EPA per play since the start of the 2024 season — and a more efficient offensive attack should be enough to clear the 9.5 win barrier. This, of course, hinges on Herbert being upright and healthy for 17 games.
