A coach’s playcalling tendencies should not, under any circumstances under the sun, be your guiding light in valuing one player over another for fantasy football purposes. My spreadsheets are not certain on much, but they’re certain on this: There are a bunch of factors to consider before you get to playcalling as a determining factor in building a fantasy roster.
It is something to consider though, and it can serve as a tiebreaker in the middle or later parts of a draft. In that way playcalling trends — especially where it counts the most (the red zone) — is similar to considering which players ran cold last season.
Below is a look at five NFL offenses that were among the league’s pass-heaviest units inside the 20 (red zone) and inside the 10 (green zone), and how that trend might carry over in 2026 and affect players’ touchdown-based upside. I used teams’ pass rate over expected in the red (and green) zones in neutral situations, or when the game is within one score outside the final two minutes of each half.
We like touchdowns. We want as many of them as we can get, for they supercharge a player’s best-case scenario and serve as deodorant for the less-than-efficient players.
RELATED: 2026 Sunday Night Football schedule for NBC and Peacock
Los Angeles Rams
- Neutral pass rate over expected inside the 20: 6.4 percent (1st)
- Neutral PROE inside the 10: 7.2 percent (4th)
Sean McVay has established the dang pass near the goal line during his run with Matthew Stafford under center. Those who drafted Davante Adams last season — and those who faced Adams — know this well. McVay’s commitment to the pass inside the 20-yard line turned a lot of low-volume target days into big statistical outings for Adams.
The thing we nerds should remember about a good offense is that even a pass-heavy approach where it counts the most doesn’t leave the team’s running backs without scoring opportunities. The Rams in 2025 had the third most inside-the-five rushing attempts. Kyren Williams ranked fifth among all running backs with 30 inside-the-10 carries while Blake Corum saw 16 green zone opportunities.
McVay’s Rams offense is one of the rare units that can produce bountiful touchdown opportunities for both the team’s pass catchers and rushers. If either LA back misses time in 2026, the one left standing should have as much touchdown-based upside as anyone in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Neutral pass rate over expected inside the 20: 3 percent (3rd)
- Neutral PROE inside the 10: 0.1 percent (10th)
This isn’t a stunner for anyone who has watched Andy Reid get weird with red zone playcalling in recent years. Handing the football to the big running back and letting him trundle into the end zone seems beneath Reid. That’s been excellent for the statistical upside of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ pass catchers (at least it was excellent before the KC became one of the game’s most vanilla and boring offenses).
Kansas City last season ranked 20th in inside-the-five rushes, with Kareem Hunt seeing 13 of those 20 attempts and scoring seven times. Meanwhile, Mahomes ranked third in red zone pass attempts before his season-ending knee injury — not at all an unusual spot for him.
Chiefs officials and coaches have hinted this offseason that the team might mess around and get more balanced on offense to help Mahomes get back to full health before, I suppose, letting it rip with the pass-heavy checkdown system Reid has deployed over the past few years. If that’s the case, Kenneth Walker III might not see anything close to a big number of high-value green zone rushes in 2026.
Walker has been fine as an inside-the-ten runner. Over the past two years he’s turned seven of his 25 green zone chances into touchdowns. The hope for Walker drafters is that the Seahawks’ refusal to use him near the goal line over the past couple seasons was a unique decision and does not carry over into his first season in Kansas City.
Denver Broncos
- Neutral pass rate over expected inside the 20: 2 percent (7th)
- Neutral PROE inside the 10: -5.6 percent (20th)
Sean Payton over the past two seasons has leaned heavily on the pass inside the 20 while skewing run heavy inside the 10. It’s a curious mix you don’t see all that often when you parse red zone playcalling trends.
Payton, as you surely know, is giving up playcalling this offseason and handing the reins to offensive coordinator Davis Webb. It’s hard (impossible) to say if Webb will continue this sort of inside-the-20 approach in 2026. I mostly agree with RotoPat’s assessment that a lifelong offensive mastermind like Payton will keep one hand on the offensive steering wheel even if Webb was given the OC/playcaller title to keep him in Denver for one more year.
Bo Nix’s 80 red zone pass attempts ranked fourth among all QBs in 2025 and his 68 red zone throws ranked tenth in 2024. Nix has been highly efficient as an inside-the-10 passer over his first two pro seasons, turning 68 throws into 24 touchdowns (35 percent). Courtland Sutton has made much of his fantasy money in this part of the field thanks largely to Denver’s commitment to the pass near the end zone. I’m not sure we can bank on that in 2026 with Jaylen Waddle coming aboard as the team’s clear WR1. Perhaps Sutton being a shifty big-bodied wideout will keep him locked in as Nix’s primary red zone target, however.
The Nix-era Broncos’ pass-heavy red zone ways, you may have guessed, have severely limited rushing opportunities near the end zone. The Broncos logged a grand total of 19 inside-the-five rushes in 2025, the 11th fewest in the league. JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey last year combined for a meager 24 rushing attempts inside the ten. That total would have equaled the green zone carries for D’Andre Swift, who finished 11th in that category in 2025.
This was hardly new in 2025. Denver was 7 percent above its expected green zone pass rate in 2024 (6th) and 3 percent over inside the 20 (7th). Nix’s rushing ability — assuming he fully recovers from his January ankle break — has also siphoned valuable goal line opportunities for Denver’s backs. It’s something to consider when drafting Dobbins, Harvey, or Jonah Coleman, who I like very much.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Neutral pass rate over expected inside the 20: 1.1 percent (6th)
- Neutral PROE inside the 10: 1 percent (8th)
The Bengals, when Joe Burrow isn’t dealing with a two-month toe injury or a six-week pinky injury, are ultra-super-giga-turbo pass heavy inside the 20. It’s been quite fun for fantasy.
In 2024, when Burrow somehow managed to play 17 games, he led all quarterbacks with 122 red zone attempts. That’s 23 more than the next closest guy, Patrick Mahomes. With Zac Taylor’s offense going 15.5 percent over their expected pass rate in the red zone, 30 of Burrow’s 41 touchdowns in 2024 came in that part of the field. Ja’Marr Chase, naturally, led the NFL in both red zone and green zone looks. Tee Higgins, also naturally, was third among wideouts in green zone targets.
In 2025 Burrow starts beginning in Week 12, Cincy ranked seventh in PROE inside the 20; they were 17 percent over their expected pass rate in the green zone, second only to the Jets for some reason. Usually this sort of pass-crazy approach near the end zone would be annoying, bordering on disastrous for the team’s lead back. That’s not the case for Chase Brown though. Last year from Week 12-18 Brown led the Bengals with seven inside-the-20 targets. He also saw four end zone targets during that span — not half bad for a running back.
Brown’s pass-catching role in the high-powered Cincinnati offense makes him too big to fail. There are not many game scripts in which he can’t thrive thanks to his pass game involvement. Last season from Week 12 to 18, only three backs had more targets and receptions than Brown. Only Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs had more receiving yards.
Minnesota Vikings
- Neutral pass rate over expected inside the 20: 0.2 percent (10th)
- Neutral PROE inside the 10: 12.4 percent (2nd)
Kevin O’Connell is so into red zone passing that he continued the bit even with J.J. McCarthy under center in 2025. The Vikings last year were over their expected inside-the-20 pass rate in 13 of 17 regular season games after going ultra run-heavy in the red zone in Week 1. It didn’t work, but that’s beside the point.
In 2024 only the Jets and Bengals were more pass-heavy inside the 20 than O’Connell’s Vikings. Justin Jefferson enjoyed 25 red zone looks that season, the third most among receivers. That number fell to 17 in 2025. That’s what happens when your offense averages a pedestrian 2.9 red zone possessions per game. That Jefferson only caught five of those 17 red zone targets for two touchdowns speaks to the, um, questionable quality of McCarthy’s throws (Vikings fans aren’t doing well with the downfall of Nine).
Jefferson in 2025 had the same number of inside-the-10 looks as Colby Parkinson and Hunter Henry. That, to this humble football blogger, seems suboptimal. Theoretically, Jefferson should see a glut of green zone looks if the Vikings offense can run a little more smoothly in 2026 and O’Connell continues to shun the run near the goal line.
O’Connell leaning heavily toward the pass in the red and green zones in 2025 had an outsized impact on his running backs’ touchdown opportunities because the offense was inefficient and generally unproductive. Jordan Mason led the Vikes with nine carries inside the 10 while Aaron Jones had six. The entire team managed a mere 15 rushes inside the five yard line, fewer than all but three teams. Without marked improvements in the Kyler Murray era — however short-lived — Minnesota backs are not going to have much in the way of short-range touchdown opportunity in 2026. So it goes.
As for Kyler, his green zone passing has been spotty. Last season Murray over his five-game campaign completed five of 10 inside-the-ten passes for four touchdowns. Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy were the only QBs with a higher green zone completion rate than Murray. In 2024 he completed 17 of 35 attempts for 12 touchdowns, the 11th most that season. It’s fine. Better than I thought, anyway.
