The 21st century Dolphins are used to eras ending before they’ve even really begun. So it was for Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel in 2025, with the partnership first splintering with Tagovailoa’s late-season benching before being formally dissolved via Tua’s release and McDaniel’s firing. McDaniel’s results — 35 victories and a winning record over four seasons — were a success compared to what came before him, but would be mediocre anywhere other than South Beach.
▶ 2025 Miami Dolphins Stats (Rank)
- Points per game: 20.4 (25th)
- Total yards per game: 300.7 (26th)
- Plays per game: 55.8 (9th)
- Dropbacks per game: 34.1 (30th)
- Dropback EPA per play: -0.02 (26th)
- Designed rush attempts per game: 24.8 (22nd)
- Rush EPA per play: -0.03 (9th)
Can Malik Willis throw enough to attain dual-threat fantasy status?
Nothing the Dolphins have tried in the post-Don Shula era has worked, to the point they are now recycling ideas. “Packers South” was first disastrously attempted with Joe Philbin and company in 2012. Now it’s former Boston College head coach and Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s turn. He’s brought with him a whole pack of Packers, including new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and new quarterback Malik Willis. The most sought after “fresh face” from a typically tepid free agent QB market, 27-year-old Willis arrives with theoretical upside but more questions than answers.
▶ Passing Game
QB: Malik Willis, Quinn Ewers
WR: Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas
WR: Jalen Tolbert, Chris Bell
WR: Tutu Atwell, Kevin Coleman Jr.
TE: Greg Dulcich, Will Kacmarek
Malik Willis’ aforementioned question marks do not extend to fantasy football. It’s pretty simple: If he stays healthy, he will offer dual-threat goodness, likely in the QB15-18 range. Although the dual-threat money printer has grown more erratic in recent seasons, it offers both a higher floor and ceiling than a similarly unproven pocket passer. As any fantasy player knows, ground production greatly enhances a quarterback’s weekly baseline while making spiked weeks more attainable. And when the big weeks arrive, they tend to be really big.
This has certainly been the story of Willis’ short time as a starter. Willis got the call six times in Green Bay. Twice, he produced more than 25 fantasy points. Electrifying stuff. On the other hand, he had zero other outings of 15-plus points. That’s because Willis is a particularly extreme form of dual-threat, passing so little as to almost qualify as a mono-threat. We tend to take the “dual” with running quarterbacks for granted, but you have to actually throw, too, and Willis has never attempted more than 23 passes in a game.
That was with a different team and coaching staff, but as we laid out in the intro, Jeff Hafley has been hired to establish a “Packers South” outpost. It is extremely unlikely he deviates from his former boss Matt LaFleur’s approach. That’s especially true since Willis’ “skill corps” is the worst in all of football on paper. More on that in a second, but Willis’ lack of passing track record and his vanishingly-thin supporting cast make him unlikely to push for weekly QB1 status even if he is a dynamo on the ground.
Through the air, Willis has almost nobody to throw to. With Jaylen Waddle departed for Denver, holdover No. 3 wideout and gadget man Malik Washington is the closest thing the Dolphins have to a “No. 1 receiver.” No offense to Washington, but a 25-year-old former sixth-rounder with 72 career catches would be maybe the least qualified No. 1 WR we have ever seen during our time writing about fantasy football. A YAC man who can be dangerous with the ball in his hands, Washington could still end up providing WR4 returns, but that would be a best-case outcome. He should be treated as a WR5/6 who will struggle to spike weeks in a run-based offense.
If Washington is the least qualified holdover No. 1 wideout we have ever seen, free agent addition Jalen Tolbert is maybe the least qualified outside addition No. 1 wideout we have ever seen. Although Tolbert was always slightly more productive than expected in the Cowboys’ high-flying passing attack, the reality is he’s a 27-year-old career role player who has 91 catches in four years. He could push for the first 50-catch campaign of his career, but his baseline should be presumed to be in the 25-30 range. His track record is simply too short, and the Dolphins’ projected volume too low. Tolbert is not worth a pick in re-draft fantasy leagues.
Beyond Washington and Tolbert in the receiver corps is big-play specialist Tutu Atwell and Day 2 rookies Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell. 26-year-old Atwell has never caught more than 42 balls in a season, and that came from five years of playing for the best coach in football. If Sean McVay can’t get Atwell his numbers, we doubt Jeff Hafley and OC Bobby Slowik can. There may be the rare week where Atwell profiles as a WR4 streamer for a favorable matchup, but that will be many drafts and months from now.
Of the rookies, No. 94 overall pick Bell probably has more fantasy juice than No. 75 overall pick Douglas. Arriving from Louisville, Bell was a slow burn producer for the Cardinals before suffering a torn ACL near the end of his strong senior season. A clean bill of health could make him a surprise 2026 contributor, but the operative word there is “surprise.”
Douglas has better draft capital but a thinner résumé. Although an impressive size/speed prospect, Douglas was not a college dominator. He also has questionable hands and a limited track record of winning contested catches. He profiles as an early-career big-play specialist in an offense that will have very few big plays in the passing game.
Last and potentially least is tight end Greg Dulcich. Re-signed to a one-year, $3.25 million contract in March, Dulcich has been the subject of much offseason conjecture following his 26-catch 2025. Hardly the most impressive statline, though all 26 of Dulcich’s grabs were compiled over the Dolphins’ final nine games. He caught 10 balls between Weeks 17 and 18 as the ‘Fins played out the string of their lost year. Supposedly one of the “primary targets” for Willis in offseason practices, Dulcich has zero target competition in his tight end group and little from the skill corps at large. He’s worth a TE2 flier despite his years of false fantasy starts.
▶ Running Game
RB: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright, Ollie Gordon II
OL (L-R): Patrick Paul, Kadyn Proctor, Aaron Brewer, Jonah Savaiinaea, Austin Jackson
De’Von Achane is one of the best players in football — in one of its worst offenses. After he proved he could stay healthy in 2024, Achane leveled up for a 2025 career year, eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing for the first time while adding 67 receptions and 12 total touchdowns. His 5.7 yards per carry led the NFL, restoring the explosive run power he displayed as a rookie before it curiously disappeared as a sophomore. Achane was so good that neither Jaylen Wright nor rookie Ollie Gordon could find a foothold in the Dolphins’ offense even as the passing attack faltered.
Awesome stuff, though another world away with McDaniel now in L.A. and the ‘Fins conducting a full-blown rebuild. Although Willis’ dual-threat will undoubtedly scare defenses into opening up lanes for Achane, it’s possible this offense is so dysfunctional that Achane’s volume takes a step back on last year’s career-high 305 touches. That’s not the intent, of course. The ‘Fins made extending Achane an offseason priority before doing so in May. Being faded to the RB10-12 range in summer fantasy drafts, Achane is not lacking for red flags, though he feels like a classic “bet on talent” pick. He’s too good, and the Dolphins are probably too committed, for Achane to truly let fantasy managers down.
Now, were a theoretical letdown to come in the form of an unfortunate injury, it’s still Wright and Gordon jockeying for position behind their superstar starter. Gordon pushed Wright for No. 2 status early last year before Wright moved comfortably ahead by season’s end, to the point he was given a Week 18 start as Achane rested. Neither player was involved in the 2025 passing game, though Gordon entered the NFL with 80 college receptions over three seasons to Wright’s 30 in three. It stands to reason Wright would serve as the thunder, with Gordon attempting to strike as lightning.
If Achane stays healthy, Wright could mix in for some red-zone rushes in a run-heavy offense, but Gordon would be extremely hard pressed to steal any passing-game targets. That means neither Wright nor Gordon are particularly appealing standalone picks as insurance backs, while the committee would be low upside were Achane to go down.
▶ 2026 Miami Dolphins Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 4.5
Pick: Under (-120) over is +100
In general, the under on any 4.5 win total feels precarious. So much has to go wrong for an NFL team to only claim four wins. But the Dolphins are not trying to win, and somehow possess the league’s second most difficult schedule. Although 5-6 victories would hardly be surprising, those totals do not feel most likely. The under is the safest bet even if that is traditionally a difficult mark to reach.
