This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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Safe Stacks:
Green Bay at Baltimore: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Mark Andrews
Ever since Rodgers’ toe injury, he’s been absolute fantasy gold. The past three games have been his best stretch of the season and he’s already said that he won’t miss games over it. The Ravens’ defense has looked a lot better in the second half of the season than it did early on, but that has a lot to do with their opponents: Cleveland twice, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Miami are not exactly high-powered passing offenses. I like Rodgers and Adams in all formats, but there’s a chance they could go under-rostered this week due to a perception that this is a bad matchup. Adams is expensive, but like Rodgers, is having his best stretch of the season. He’s averaging almost eight catches and 100 receiving yards per game. There is enough value to make this work. Adding Andrews secures a high-floor TE in a game that should go back and forth quite a bit. Andrews is coming off his second-best game of the season, and is also in a hot stretch, with an average of 10 targets, seven catches and about 75 yards per game over the last four games. He’s scored twice in that span. I think he’s a huge and welcome discount from George Kittle, especially on Yahoo and DraftKings.
San Francisco vs. Atlanta: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Cordarrelle Patterson
There’s a reason Kittle is so expensive this week…he’s basically the entire 49ers offense with injured running backs or Deebo Samuel out. In the past two games he’s scored three touchdowns with 22 catches on 27 targets! He has 332 receiving yards in those two games, more than a lot of tight ends have all season. Kittle’s role may shrink slightly if Elijah Mitchell returns, but Samuel hadn’t been getting as many targets the last few games anyway. Garoppolo isn’t the highest-ceiling QB by any means, but he does have a fair floor for his salary. He hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns in any game this season, and his best fantasy lines have been bolstered by random rushing scores. Still, this is a highly favorable matchup with the Falcons, a team allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs this season and the 49ers have one of the highest implied team totals this weekend.
The San Francisco defense isn’t the toughest opponent, though they are by no means a pushover. Still, if you are stacking this game, you should consider Patterson. He’s been Atlanta’s best fantasy skill player by far, has over 1000 combined yards and 10 touchdowns so far. Patterson has faced two really stout run defenses in Carolina and Tampa Bay the last two weeks and his salary is down a little bit since he failed to score 20-plus fantasy points in those games. I expect a bounce-back performance for Week 15 and view Patterson as a solid RB play on a slate without a ton of them.
Miami Dolphins vs. NY Jets: Tua Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin, DeVante Parker
Surprise! The Dolphins’ offense appearing in a safe stack is a shocker. Miami has won five in a row, thanks mostly to when Tagovailoa took over against the Ravens in Week 10. He has over 100 QB rating in those games, including one against these Jets, with six touchdowns and only one interception. He’s super cheap on DraftKings, medium on Yahoo, and quite pricey on FanDuel. When you consider that the Jets allow the most overall fantasy points to opponents, however, he feels worth it on all three sites. The main path to fantasy gold when facing the Jets is through the running back position. I’m betting that Gaskin will pass the COVID protocols and suit up for Sunday’s game. He put up 89 rushing yards and caught a touchdown last time vs. the Jets, and though he isn’t the most consistent player to roster, he has had two of the last three games go well. Jaylen Waddle has been one of the best rookie receivers of the year, and even though DeVante Parker is back on the field, he is still the top producer in the Miami offense. He caught eight of nine targets vs. the Jets in Week 11 and had a random rushing touchdown, but now finds himself on the COVID list. Thus, Parker is elevated and at his cheaper salary, is a very attractive play this weekend. Parker caught all five of his Week 13 targets vs. the Giants. With a Dolphins core, you can add in any skill players you want (Davante Adams, Najee Harris) to maximize your upside.
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Contrarian Stacks:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: Ben Roethlisberger, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth
I expect Najee Harris to be very highly rostered this weekend, especially on Yahoo, where he’s only the eighth-most expensive option. So if you want to really take advantage of Tennessee’s defensive weakness while being a little more contrarian, consider Big Ben and Claypool. The Titans offer the seventh-best QB matchup and second-best WR option. Claypool hasn’t had a breakout game this season like he did last year, but it’s poised to happen. In each of the past four games, Claypool has long catches of 37-41 yards. In three of those games he has at least eight targets. He hasn’t scored, but Roethlisberger is well aware of what he has in Claypool and is feeding him. This is a matchup where the volume can finally come to fruition with a big game for both QB and WR. Since it’s been Diontae Johnson and James Washington scoring, I expect they’ll be rostered more frequently than Claypool, giving the advantage of uniqueness to your stack. The Titans on paper have good numbers vs. TE, but the only real team they’ve played that uses a TE as a key receiver was Kansas City in Week 7. Friermuth has a decent target share and makes the most of his opportunities with over 2.0 fantasy points per target. Considering he’s really only emerged since around the Week 7 bye, Friermuth is still underrated and underpriced.
Philadelphia vs. Washington: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor
Hurts gets the league-best QB matchup with the Football Team, but coming off the bye and performing horribly vs. the Giants (three picks and an ankle sprain), I think he’s going to fly under the radar this week as long as his ankle is ok. The two games prior, Hurts was fine, with two passing touchdowns in Denver and three rushing TDs vs. New Orleans. Since he’s inconsistent in how he’s good even when he’s good, he makes for a nice tournament play. Smith has been a huge disappointment, as has Reagor, though expectations were lower for him in his second year. If there was a spot for an Eagles’ receiver or two to thrive, this is it. Washington hasn’t stopped anyone, giving up the third-most fantasy points to receivers and seventh-most overall. Smith and Reagor are both cheap and I have to believe that the Eagles have used their time off to game plan a pass-happy attack this week. This is a key game for the NFC playoff picture, and while defense should play a role for the Eagles, a big offensive victory would go a long way for their confidence heading into the end of the season. This is a high risk/reward stacking option for tournaments only.
Mini-Stack of the week:
The Cardinals are favored by two touchdowns over the Lions, and they are a team that isn’t afraid to run up the score. Assuming his ankle is ok, expect a lot of Conner, as usual, given the Lions are the second-best RB matchup in the league and Conner has scored 14 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns this season, second only to Jonathan Taylor. Murray looked to also be in fine form Monday night, and he should be able to boost his stat line with his legs as well this week. These two are expensive, and we do have to watch the practice reports on Conner, but they offer a very high floor high upside combo to build around for Week 15.
