When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
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Players I’m fading for Week 1 include:
Saquon Barkley, RB, NY Giants
I’m writing this assuming that Barkley will indeed play this weekend, though that is something that definitely requires confirmation. However sneaky a GPP play Barkley might be, he’s not making it into cash game lineups this week. Not only do the Giants sport the lowest implied team total of the week (tied with the Lions, to be fair), they face a tough Denver defense, and they have myriad injuries beyond Barkley’s knee. This offense is going to have a very hard time getting anything going, and given Barkley’s still uncertain status, it seems impossible that they’re going to make him shoulder the load. I think he’ll have great weeks this season and I look forward to those, it just won’t happen in Week 1.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Houston Texans
You might be wondering how Taylor even makes this list, but he’s actually one of our DFS Optimizer’s top value plays this weekend. Neither Jacksonville nor Houston boasts any defense to worry about, and as a result, this could turn into a high scoring game. Taylor is a conservative passer, with one of the lower yards per attempt the last time he was active. What’s more, after Brandin Cooks it’s anyone’s guess who he’ll be throwing to. I do sometimes like to seek out a value QB, but this week I’m looking at Sam Darnold and Jimmy Garoppolo over Taylor.
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Ja’Marr Chase, WR Cincinnati Bengals
I’m just as much in love with Chase as everyone else, and this blurb is not about the preseason drops I swear. The price is also right. Joe Burrow throws a ton, or at least he did last year. This game could/should be a shootout. Seems like a lot of reasons to roster Chase, but I don’t simply trust him compared to ALL the other options on this slate. He, like many rookie WR/TE, is a player I want to see in action before trusting in my cash game lineup. The Bengals still have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to catch passes, as well as CJ Uzomah and Joe Mixon.
De’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
As noted above, the Lions join the Giants at the low end of the points expectation this week. The two Lions players that I thought were draftable in season-long leagues, Swift and T.J. Hockenson, should in theory see a lot of volume. My issue this week is the opponent 49ers. San Francisco loves to run the ball, burn clock, and wear their opponents down. They are generally thought to be one of the best defenses in the league when healthy, which, fingers crossed, they are. Even if I weren’t so high on this D/ST for DFS, I’d be fading the Lions for Week 1.
Houston/Jacksonville D/ST
People appear to be especially high on the Jaguars, for reasons mentioned above in the Taylor blurb, but I never love the idea of rostering a bad defense just because it’s facing a bad offense. There are enough cheap options at D/ST as well as every other position that you can afford to roster a quality unit that is also facing a bad team.
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Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 1 include: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Marquez Calloway, Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, Stefon Diggs, James Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, SF D/ST, Denver D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs if you’re after a more unique lineup.
