In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points. This weekly article focuses on the Sunday main slate of NFL games.
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Target:
LA Rams at Minnesota, Total 49.5
Rams minus-3
It sure feels weird to start writing up Week 16 when Week 15 is still to be played out, but here we are, with football almost every day now. There aren’t too many inviting games, based on the Vegas lines, but this should be a great one to draw upon. The Rams average the fourth-most points per game and are one of the healthier teams in the league. Cooper Kupp leads all wide receivers in all stats, most by a wide margin, and he’s played one fewer game than most. It will be expensive to target this game, but Matthew Stafford and Kupp should be worth it. I also like Darrell Henderson, given that the Vikings are a Top 10 rushing matchup, but they are the absolute most generous pass defense for opposing wide receivers. If you feel the salary squeeze, you could drop down to Odell Beckham Jr. or Van Jefferson, or just use them in tournaments for a more unique exposure to this potent offense. Both scored in the Week 14 game vs. Arizona, but Kupp is the best cash game play.
The Vikings won’t be as obvious, given that the Rams defense is pretty stout, but not stout enough to totally ignore Kirk Cousins and especially Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is almost as big a target magnet as Kupp, with at least 10 in five of his last six games. He scored five times in that span and exceeded 140 receiving yards three times. If Adam Thielen misses another game, it’s a boon, but even with Thielen active, I like Jefferson in this high scoring and competitive game.
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Avoid:
Denver at Las Vegas, Total 42
Raiders minus-1
Denver allows the third-fewest points per game in the league, and neither team is what you’d call an offensive juggernaut. That situation gets even worse as Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a serious concussion and is unlikely to play this weekend. There’s no need to go after the offense in this game, but do consider the Broncos’ D/ST. They’re very reasonably priced given the total here.
Buffalo at New England, Total 44
Patriots minus 2.5
This is a critical game for the AFC playoff picture and we will all be watching with interest to see how it comes out. It can’t possibly be worse than the first meeting between these teams in the snow a couple weeks ago, right? Even though this isn’t the lowest point total on the slate, these are two of the best defenses in the league. Buffalo allows the fewest fantasy points per game (NE second-fewest), while New England allows the fewest real points per game (Buffalo second). They have tied with 27 takeaways so far this season, third-best mark in the league, and both have excellent pass defenses. You might take a flier on Damien Harris if he’s healthy, or pay up for either defense, but I’m fading the pass game entirely here.
Consider:
LA Chargers at Houston, Total 47
Chargers minus-9.5
There is a lot to like about the Chargers this weekend. Houston is the sixth-most generous opponent for fantasy overall, with the sixth-best DvP to RB and TE. Justin Herbert has been on fire since a brief mid-season slump vs. Baltimore and New England. He’s among the safest QB plays this week with a solid fantasy floor in the low 20’s and upside in the mid-30’s. We have to wait and see what happens with Austin Ekeler’s COVID status this weekend. There should be no need to force him into action, with healthy reserve Justin Jackson already playing well recently. If Ekeler were to miss this game, Jackson would be a must-play RB. On the receiving end, though it’s hard to stray from Mark Andrews, I do like Jared Cook this week. As noted above, Houston is susceptible to the opposing TE, and Cook is getting plenty of targets, scoring about every other week since Week 12. He probably needs a touchdown to make a big impact in your line, but his 6-8 fantasy points per game won’t totally kill your cash game lineups at his salary.
Tampa Bay at Carolina, Total 44.5
Buccaneers minus-11
This is a line I’m not fully on board with. Tom Brady has been fantastic all season, pretty much except last week, and he lost Chris Godwin and probably Mike Evans. Yes, there’s Rob Gronkowski, and I like Tyler Johnson as a bargain receiving option this weekend, but as noted above, I’d much rather pay less for Stafford at QB. Ronald Jones might be the best play here, except that Carolina’s defense is particularly good at stopping the run. I’m inclined to trust the oddsmakers most of the time, but use some caution on this game when it comes to spending top dollar.
Philadelphia vs. NY Giants, Total 42
Eagles minus-10
I have to echo my thoughts from above as far as the Eagles go. They had a rough start in Tuesday night football, and even though the Giants are a terrible offensive team, scoring the third-fewest points per game this season, they aren’t a super pushover defense. I can see either using Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders in a GPP based on this line, or the Eagles D/ST in cash games.
