When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
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Players I’m fading for Week 3 include:
Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos vs. NY Jets
On the surface, this looks like a great spot for Teddy and the Broncos. However, the Jets haven’t been so generous to opposing QBs; rather they have been run on by the Panthers and Patriots in the season’s first two games. The Broncos are big favorites, which is good, but the overall game total here is the lowest of the week. Game script will therefore probably favor a plan the Broncos are amenable to: heavy doses of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team at Buffalo
On the other hand, Vegas thinks the Football Team will likely be playing from behind as Buffalo is a nine-point favorite at home this weekend, so game script could be good here. My fear is that we see McLaurin revert to more like a Week 1 performance (vs. the Chargers) than what we saw in Week 2 vs. the Giants. The Bills have been able to pressure opposing QBs effectively: they are second in the league in QB hits and tied for second with eight sacks. That translates to shorter drives and more quick release passes, which aren’t McLaurin’s specialty (I’m considering D.J. McKissic instead). McLaurin was spectacular in Week 2, but I think we should think twice about trusting or expecting that level of production in Buffalo this week.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh
The Steelers are favored at home in this divisional matchup, again with one of the lower over/unders this weekend. Something about the AFC North always worries me for DFS; these rivalries so often end in ugly low-scoring slug fests. Mixon is pretty fairly priced for what he’s been doing, but there are several similar guys I’d rather play in his range. Austin Ekeler for sure, but I also like Chase Edmonds and Chris Carson a lot this weekend. Mixon isn’t the worst play by any stretch, but I do think he’s going to dip a bit this week in the tough matchup with the Steelers.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis
Henry is the most expensive player on FanDuel and DraftKings but only the second-most expensive running back behind Dalvin Cook on Yahoo, where QBs are always higher-priced. Therefore, you can weight my take on him higher where he’s the most costly. He is coming off an amazing game in Week 2, where he doubled his rushing attempts and receptions over Week 1 while scoring three touchdowns. Last season, Indy was one of the worst defenses to face for fantasy, and while they haven’t established that level so far this season, I’m still a little leary of targeting them with such a big percent of my budget. This, too, could be an ugly game though the line hasn’t moved as much in the Titans’ favor as I’d have expected with all the questions surrounding Carson Wentz right now. My best prediction for Henry is somewhere between Weeks 1 and 2, but he’s priced for a Week 2 repeat, which I don’t see in the cards for him or us.
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Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at LA Rams
Rostering players in the rear-view mirror is one of the easiest ways to DFS, but not one of the best. Simply chasing what worked the week prior is a dangerous strategy given the ups and downs of every player in every season. Gronk has been great in the end zone, but his overall volume doesn’t justify his crazy high salary. Touchdowns don’t necessarily predict more touchdowns and one of the ways to get ahead of trends rather than chase them is to search out volume without touchdowns. Because site salaries are so TD-dependent, these guys are usually a lot cheaper and lower-rostered than the people who scored last week, but with reasonable opportunity given their higher number of targets. I get it that Antonio Brown is going to miss the game and it should be a great one, but I’m rostering Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin ahead of Gronk this week.
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Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 3 include: Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce, Austin Ekeler, Cordarrelle Patterson, Cardinals D/ST, Bills D/ST, Broncos D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs if you’re after a more unique lineup.
