In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points.
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Target:
NY Giants at Dallas, Total 52
Cowboys minus-7
I feel like I keep saying, 2021 Dak Prescott is not 2020 Prescott before the injury, but he’s still averaging 21-22 fantasy points per game this season. Unfortunately, on the main slate, he’s QB3 in price (QB5 on DraftKings). Two things I like about Dak this week are that he’s home and that he’s improved during the first month of the season, throwing seven touchdown passes with zero interceptions in his last two games after starting 3:2 in the first two games. The Cowboys defense is also better at home, which has given Prescott and the offense a shorter field to work with. The Giants are an average defense, slightly more generous to the pass game than the run game, so I’m leaning more toward Prescott, his new favorite target Dalton Schultz (still cheap enough to consider, especially on DraftKings), Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb with this high implied team total for Dallas. Lamb’s salary has come down a lot and rightfully so. If you only consider him in tournaments, you’ll be happier with a boom (or bust) outcome. Ezekiel Elliott is an ok cash game play, but I find myself gravitating more to Derrick Henry if I’m spending up.
The Giants have been quietly competitive behind Daniel Jones. Jones is coming off a 400-yard passing game, has rushed for two touchdowns and has at least 27 rushing yards in each game so far. Passing touchdowns haven’t been his strong suit thus far, but a potential play-from-behind script in Dallas, a team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and seventh-most overall fantasy points, could be surprisingly good for him. Look for more in the bargain column this week. Speaking of bargains, John Ross got a mention there last week and made an immediate impact, scoring early vs. New Orleans and catching three of four targets. If Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are out again, I will love Ross even more having seen him do what we’ve been waiting for years to see ($3400 DK, $5200 FD, $13 Yahoo). I also like Evan Engram for a breakout game here. Dallas has been generous to opposing tight ends, and the targets are there for Evans (six apiece in Weeks 3 and 4). Kenny Golladay has been solid, and could be a useful cash game filler if the Giants do remain shorthanded. I love that Saquon Barkley has looked good the past two weeks, but I don’t want to push back against Dallas’ run defense when they’re at home and I suspect the Giants will be in pass mode. Barkley is effective in the pass game, though, so I can justify him in a large field tournament lineup.
San Francisco at Arizona, Total 50.5
Cardinals minus-5.5
Kyler Murray is now just a smidgeon behind Patrick Mahomes in total fantasy points, averaging about 28 fpts per game with nine passing and three rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals lead the league in points scored, and the 49ers rank as one of the best QB matchups for fantasy. Right now I feel safest with a solo Murray lineup, given that it’s a true guessing game to pick the right receiver. It’s been Christian Kirk, DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds and Maxx Williams, A.J. Green or Rondale Moore, who had his notable game the last time the Cardinals were home. What’s more, James Conner is playing very interesting football. He’s caught all three of his targets and scored twice in each of the last two games. Edmonds has been more efficient on the ground and effective in the pass game, but hasn’t scored. DFS sites aren’t doing us any favors pricing them identically, but I’m going with Edmonds as the Arizona RB of choice, who has at least 10 half-PPR fantasy points in every game so far, if and only if he’s the perfect salary fit for my build.
On the other side of this one, Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable, but Deebo Samuel is the only player I’m trusting in the 49ers’ offense. Samuel has two of the 10 best individual WR games of the season. Whether it’s Garoppolo or Trey Lance, both are laser-focused on getting the ball in Deebo’s hands and he is up for the challenge. It definitely feels like he’s not taken seriously in Yahoo’s pricing this week ($24). A George Kittle breakout game is possible here, and it would certainly make a difference in big tournaments, but I really want to see him shed the injury tag altogether before slotting him in my lineup since it seems that something isn’t quite right with him.
Cleveland at LA Chargers, Total 49.5
Chargers minus-1
It’s the obvious suspects in this one, with Justin Herbert coming off an impressive MNF win over Las Vegas. Austin Ekeler and Jared Cook stole the show, though Donald Parham also scored, while Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were duds in Week 4. Cleveland is looking like one of the league’s toughest RB matchups for fantasy, but Ekeler’s price is still pretty nice for this game. I’m also not avoiding Williams or Allen this week, but neither am I forcing them into lineups at their salaries.
For the Browns, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are the plays. We know, now more than ever, that the Browns won’t have Baker Mayfield out there taking advantage of even easy matchups with a high-volume passing attack. After brutally missing Odell Beckham Jr. too many times to recount in Week 4, I get it. Now, the Chargers are one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league so we should expect even less. Mayfield, OBJ, Rashard Higgins…no thanks to any of you. I especially like Chubb to bounce back at a low roster percentage this week.
Green Bay at Cincinnati, Total 49.5
Packers minus-3
Both of these teams are pretty neutral on both offense and defense, meaning there are no perfect matchups to go after or avoid. The close, high scoring nature of this line means it’s pretty safe to use this game as your filler or tie-breaker when rounding out lineups. If you can fit someone like Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd or Aaron Jones, do it. Chase is one of our NFL DFS Optimizer’s best fantasy point per dollar values this week. Is it worth squeezing to get Davante Adams? I’m less confident he’ll reach value as the most expensive WR option on every site, but if this does turn into a shootout, he’s going to play a big role.
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Avoid:
Denver at Pittsburgh, Total 40.5
Steelers minus-1.5
It sounds like Teddy Bridgewater is making progress through the concussion protocol which is good news for the Denver WRs and Noah Fant, but this is still not a team I’m targeting. Ben Roethlisberger had at least one big throw left in him, but again, this pass game is not where it’s at most weeks. Najee Harris is the heir apparent to the fantasy goodness in Pittsburgh’s offense, and the only play here is Harris and/or the Steelers’ defense (at home, cheap, much better play vs. Drew Lock).
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Consider:
Minnesota vs. Detroit, Total 49
Vikings minus-7.5
Detroit allows the fourth most real points per game, and ranks as the second best (half-PPR) matchup for running backs. So far, it looks like Dalvin Cook avoided any setback with his ankle, though his injury status will be the one to monitor most closely this week. This matchup is one I want badly to attack, with Cook being priced well below Derrick Henry on all three sites. Stay tuned. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are also possible, although Jefferson’s salary has really come up making him a close second to Adams. Targets were pretty evenly divided between Thielen, Jefferson and K.J. Osborn in Week 4, though only Jefferson was able to make much of his opportunities. Osborn remains a strong tournament play from the bargain bin.
Tampa Bay vs. Miami, Total 48
Buccaneers minus-10.5
Vegas is looking for a big-time bounce-back from the Bucs at home vs. the downstate Dolphins in Week 5. No one needs it more than Chris Godwin, who tied Leonard Fournette with five targets and had fewer than Cameron Brate in New England. Godwin is super cheap on DraftKings ($6300), while Mike Evans looks like the better deal on FanDuel ($7000) and Yahoo ($24). Speaking of bounce-back, Tom Brady is the king of it. Even at this age, it’s hard to imagine him not reclaiming his dominance of Weeks 1 and 2. Miami gives up the 10th most overall fantasy points, but is a better rushing than passing matchup. Leonard Fournette was a focal point in Week 4, and will likely be a somewhat more popular play heading into Week 5. I have PTSD from the Bucs backfield dating back to last year, but numbers don’t (always) lie. Fournette has double-digit PPR fantasy points in three of his four games (the Rams were the exception) despite not yet scoring a touchdown. If you believe in regression, and I do, Fournette could be an exceptional value this week.
New England at Houston, Total 39.5
Patriots minus-9.5
The low total here should diminish enthusiasm for Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers, but the spread is encouraging. Meyers might fit well in a DraftKings lineup (12 targets last week, double-digit fantasy points the last two games). Houston is a fairly generous pass defense, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. A little Mac Jones and Jakobi mini-stack might work well this weekend. You could add Brandin Cooks to it for the correlation play. The rest of the Patriots receivers are too similar to each other – Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne all saw five targets in Week 4 and while the receivers produced similar ~50 receiving yard stat lines, it was both tight ends who found the end zone. I’m gently avoiding everyone except Meyers this week.
