The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
Late-Season Desperation
I brought this idea up late in the week over at One Week Season, but we’re going to start seeing a changing dynamic in the NFL over the coming month of play. Teams are going to start being eliminated from playoff contention and make personnel changes (the Falcons were on bye this week but have already done this, making the swap to rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder). Players are going to see changing snap rates and roles at a higher rate than we’ve seen to this point on the season. And, potentially most importantly, teams are going to be quicker to alter their in-game management and play calling tendencies out of desperation, with most of the remaining games carrying heightened playoff implications.
There were two games this past weekend that fit that third criteria (with a couple of teams also fighting for their playoff lives as well – namely the Lions and Panthers): Jaguars at Titans and Jets at Bills. Those two games carried immense playoff implications, more so than we typically see for a game in Week 14. The Jaguars are chasing the Titans in the AFC South, a division where it is highly likely only one team is going to eventually make the playoffs from. Coming into Week 14 three games back, the Jaguars needed a road victory over their division rivals to have a chance at a playoff berth, knowing they would again meet in Week 18. That victory left the Jaguars with just one game left to make up in order to turn Week 18’s game into a “winner goes to the playoffs, loser goes home” matchup.
The other game with increased playoff implications this weekend was the Jets at Bills. Buffalo just took over the top spot (and only playoff bye) in the AFC due to a head-to-head tie breaker over the Chiefs, meaning they are currently in control of their own destiny when it comes to the top seed spot in the AFC. The Jets came into the weekend clinging to the seventh, and final, playoff spot in the AFC. While this contest also carried high playoff implications, the teams involved each garnered top five overall defenses and the game environment made it so the likeliest scenario was a divisional slugfest.
Which brings us back to the Jaguars. The Jaguars had a matchup with the Titans that clearly pointed to a path of least resistance through the air, as the Titans rank first in DVOA against the run but 22nd in DVOA against the pass (amongst other signal-based metrics). Furthermore, the Titans had faced the most targets to opposing tight ends this season, as their zone-based, 3-4 defense naturally filters volume to the middle of the field and to tight ends in linebacker and safety coverage.
All of that came together to provide the perfect conditions for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars pass attack to succeed here, with playoff desperation providing the spark needed for the team to remain aggressive from start to finish.
Running Backs on Teams with High Team Totals
This seems obvious, but it is something that is missed in today’s day and age, where information overload is massive detractor to fantasy play. As we’ve covered in this space previously, the vast majority of running backs in today’s game provide fantasy ceiling through hitting the 100-yard bonus and scoring multiple touchdowns. There are a select few backs that receive enough pass volume to offset one of the required touchdowns needed to provide a GPP-worthy score, but the majority fall into the former grouping. As such, targeting running backs on teams expected to score a lot of points is a +EV way to simultaneously gain exposure to those offenses while also reducing the number of things that need to go right in order for your running backs to hit. DraftKings user gordonjonathan1 exhibited this practice beautifully by utilizing the under-owned Miles Sanders and Jerick McKinnon, each of whom played on teams with Vegas implied team totals around 26 points.
Hyper Concentration
Jerry Jeudy got there for us in Week 14 after we highlighted him as a player to watch due to the expected concentration in the passing game for the Broncos, catching 8-of-9 targets for 73 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs. Finding these non-elite but highly concentrated spots where we can confidently project volume is an easy way to gain exposure to upside on players that either haven’t “done it” yet or are jumping into expanded roles.
Looking Ahead
Justin Herbert + Mike Williams + Keenan Allen (Late-Season Desperation)
The Chargers found themselves in the seventh playoff spot in the AFC after their Sunday Night Football win over the Dolphins. Furthermore, Herbert has attempted 47 passes or more in each of his previous three games, making the low aDOT role of Keenan Allen less of an issue here. And finally, we just got done discussing the pass-funnel nature of the Tennessee defense, a team now fighting to hold off the surging Jaguars in the AFC South. Similar to the discussion about the Jaguars, the fact that both of these teams are fighting for a playoff berth (and playoff seeding), combined with the natural funnels that each defense present (which aligns with how each team are likeliest to attack here – the Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the league and face Derrick Henry) leaves this game with all the makings of a late-season, desperation induced shootout.
Miles Sanders / Isiah Pacheco (Running Backs on Teams with High Team Totals)
Back to the proverbial well here, as each of these two teams carry the highest Vegas implied team totals with the release of Week 15 game lines. The Chiefs are implied for over 30 points on the road in Houston while the Eagles are implied for over four touchdowns on the road in Chicago. While it was Jerick McKinnon that erupted in Week 14, the matchup sets up well for Pacheco on the ground against the Texans. Pacheco has averaged 18.33 running back opportunities per game over the last three games since Clyde Edwards-Helaire was placed on injured reserve.
Ja’Marr Chase (Hyper Concentration and Late-Season Desperation)
The Bengals are currently tied with the Ravens at 9-4, battling for the right to host a playoff game during wildcard weekend. The Buccaneers suddenly find themselves clinging to a one-game lead over the Panthers in the NFC South with just four games remaining on the schedule. Furthermore, Hayden Hurst is expected to remain out for the Bengals, who also lost Tee Higgins to an aggravated hamstring in pre-game warmups and Tyler Boyd to a dislocated finger during the game. I would tentatively expect Boyd to play against the Bucs, but this is still an offense expected to be highly concentrated through the air, particularly considering Ja’Marr Chase is coming off a 15-target game against the Browns under similar conditions. Finally, the Bengals hold the league’s third highest pass rate over expectation over the previous five weeks of play.
Garrett Wilson / Elijah Moore (Hyper Concentration and Late-Season Desperation)
Another game with both teams now in full desperation mode, as the Jets fell into the eighth seed in the AFC while the Lions continue their late-season surge towards the final playoff spot in the NFC. Furthermore, Corey Davis exited the Jets’ Week 14 loss to the Bills in the first quarter with a concussion, leading to Elijah Moore‘s highest snap rate since all the way back in Week 4 (82%). Wilson and Moore combined to see 17 targets on 47 total pass attempts as the top two options through the air, which should continue into Week 15 unless Corey Davis can make it through the league’s five-step concussion protocol in time to suit up (not likely considering the updated protocols). These two pass-catchers can be played together (even without their quarterback) or they can be sprinkled throughout rosters. Consider this – their combined salary for Week 15 is $9,600; would you pay about $9,000 for 15+ targets against the Lions? I sure as hell would, and that’s basically the exact profile we just targeted in Week 14 with Justin Jefferson. That play is more viable in small field contests, but I would strongly consider exposure in large field MME as well.
