The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
Skinny Stack
I was curious this offseason about which types of roster constructions were winning large field guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments recently, so I conducted a study of recent trends. In that study, I found that only 22.2% of the winning rosters during the regular season last year included a “standard DFS stack” of a quarterback paired with one of his pass-catchers and a correlated bring-back from the other team. The most common construction was a “skinny stack,” or a quarterback with only one pass-catcher and no correlated bring-back. Furthermore, the optimal rosters from last season included a “skinny stack” at a massive 38.9% clip. Finally, general field tendencies include elevated rates of “standard DFS stacks.” User ChevChelios utilized this methodology through the highest-scoring pairing of the week in Josh Allen and Gabe Davis. The full data from my report on recent GPP-winning trends can be found here.
Team Situation
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without Julio Jones and Cameron Brate in Week 5, while Russell Gage had been limited in practice for two consecutive weeks as he fought through both a hamstring injury and a back injury. That left the Bucs rather thin, condensing the expected volume to four primary players – Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and rookie tight end Cade Otton. The Bucs held the slate’s second-highest Vegas implied team total heading into the weekend and now had a condensed volume expectation. DraftKings user ChevChelios took full advantage of these truths by playing three of the four primary contributors for the Bucs without their quarterback, playing Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton on the same roster. From a theoretical perspective, the point-per-dollar range of outcomes of that “player block” offered an immense ceiling and an elevated floor, in a way that most of the field was unlikely to utilize. Moving forward, identifying these unique situations can help capture bulk scoring through only one variable “going right.” Another example of this niche situation for Week 5 was the Patriots backfield, which was ultimately derailed by an injury to Damien Harris.
Breakout Potential
Breece Hall appeared to have taken over the lead back role in New York in Week 4, playing 66% of the team’s offensive snaps and seeing 23 of the team’s 35 total running back opportunities (rush attempts plus targets), good for a 65.7% share. The week prior, he saw a massive 11 targets to go with eight rush attempts on a 51% snap rate, his first week with more offensive snaps than backfield-mate Michael Carter. His 27 targets through the first four weeks ranked second at the position behind only Austin Ekeler, and he had gotten there with only one game to that point as the unquestioned lead back on his team. Hall came into the league with the fourth-highest prospect grade out of the last three seasons, behind only Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, and D’Andre Swift, and was entering a range in the season where rookie players have historically seen breakouts in opportunities (Week 4 to Week 6 is historically when we see this happen). Add it all up and we had a talented running back with an expanding role priced at only $5,400 on DraftKings. User ChevChelios took full advantage of the pure breakout potential for Breece Hall, stacking up the leverage through his usage of a running back in the FLEX position.
FLEX Methodologies
There is a lot of theory that goes into how we select our FLEX players in DFS, including recent field trends, ranges of outcomes of various positions, ceiling potential, and the current state of the NFL. Most DFS players are simply concerned with two of those variables – ranges of outcomes of various positions and ceiling potential. With that understanding, let’s examine the other two variables.
It makes sense that the field largely neglects running backs in the FLEX position (recent field trend) due to the current state of the NFL, where only a handful of backs are utilized as true workhorse backs. But we have to change the way we look at the position. How are running backs largely scoring their fantasy points in today’s game? Gone are the days when we could simply side with team “jam them in” with guys like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. In today’s game, ceiling fantasy outcomes from the running back position come via two means. To unlock ceiling, a back is either rushing for 100+ yards and scoring multiple touchdowns or holds enough pass game work to offset the need to score multiple times. That means touchdown variance plays a massive part in scoring at the position, more so than at wide receiver due to the more projectable and bankable receiving volume in a full PPR format.
As such, it must be understood that running backs still carry the ceiling required for consideration in the FLEX, just that the ceiling is accessed in different ways in today’s game. And since the field is utilizing running backs in the FLEX at a lower rate over the previous two seasons, there is a good amount of leverage potential present through its usage. That said, we must understand the profile of a player capable of either rushing for 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns or can offset one or more of those touchdowns via pass game usage. On the winning roster, user ChevChelios utilized multiple running backs that had clear paths to increased pass game usage, including the aforementioned Breece Hall, Leonard Fournette, who had run the fourth most routes at the running back position through four weeks, and Alvin Kamara with multiple pass-catching injuries on the Saints.
Other running backs to fit our new way of looking at the position for Week 5 included Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, the Patriots running backs, Derrick Henry, and Jeff Wilson, all of whom either had either paths to increased pass game usage or paths to 100 yards or more rushing and multiple touchdowns.
Looking Ahead
Rhamondre Stevenson (Breakout Potential, FLEX Methodologies, and Team Situation)
The Patriots backfield has already been thinned from a three-way timeshare to a two-way timeshare. Damien Harris then left Week 5’s win over the Lions with a hamstring injury that could keep him from action in Week 6 against the Browns. Rookie running back Pierre Strong would likely be active should Harris miss, but the team is clearly comfortable handing Stevenson large workloads when required, as evidenced by his 25, 24, and 19 running back opportunity games in Weeks 10, 13, and 16 last year. Add in his 27 running back opportunity game in Week 5 after Damien Harris left with injury and we could see an elevated workload for a dynamic back in a plus matchup for Stevenson this week.
Ja’Marr Chase (Team Situation)
Wide receiver Tee Higgins failed to make it through Week 5’s loss to Baltimore after attempting to gut an ankle injury out, placing his status for Week 6 in question. The Saints have been utilizing Marshon Lattimore in blanket coverage alignments on opposing team alpha wide receivers that fit a particular mold, namely ones that operate as true “X” wide receivers. The Bengals have struggled to adjust to increased rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone coverages being utilized against them this year, but the Saints have played 32.4% or more man coverage in four of five games this year, which ranks top 10 in the league. The Saints have also ceded the 10th most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers this year. We could see the stars align this week for Chase to put up a massive fantasy score at what should be low ownership considering his relative lack of production so far this year.
Eno Benjamin (Breakout Potential, Team Situation, and FLEX Methodologies)
Both James Conner and Darrel Williams left Week 5 with injuries, leaving Eno Benjamin to finish the game as the featured back in Arizona. Conner is dealing with a rib issue after landing awkwardly on his torso while Williams is dealing with a knee injury. Monitor this situation closely throughout the week as the Cardinals prepare for a divisional matchup against a Seahawks team ceding an absurd 32.2 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields.
Geno Smith + Tyler Lockett (Skinny Stack)
The Cardinals have largely erased opposing alpha wide receivers this season through the combination of Byron Murphy and scheme, holding A.J. Brown to a 3-32-0 line on seven targets in Week 5, DJ Moore to a 6-50-0 line on 11 targets in Week 4, Cooper Kupp to a 4-44-0 line on six targets in Week 3, Davante Adams to a 2-12-1 line in Week 2, and JuJu Smith-Schuster to a 6-79-0 line on eight targets in Week 1. They are also holding opposing backfields to just 20.9 DraftKings points per game through five games, which ranks 10th in the league. They are, however, ceding the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have been a sieve to opposing secondary pass-catchers. Enter Tyler Lockett and a Seahawks team down their starting running back. Geno Smith has resurrected his career in his 13th NFL season, averaging 261 pass yards per game and tossing nine touchdowns through five games, adding one on the ground. Seattle has also allowed a massive 30.8 points against per game, which has forced their hand to a more aerially balanced approach. Lockett is likely to garner a high level of ownership after erupting for 30.4 DraftKings points in Week 5 only to see his salary stay the same, but he is highly unlikely to be played with his quarterback.