The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
Double-Stacked Pocket Passer
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had finished three games in which he started this season, accounting for only seven total rush attempts in those games. Furthermore, after missing half of the season to this point with back, neck, and brain injuries, it was fair to consider his rushing upside rather muted heading into a Week 8 matchup with one of the league’s most forgiving defenses. If we then consider Tua primarily a pocket passer, it stands to reason that the bulk of his potential scoring upside came through his arm – broken down further into pass yards and passing touchdowns. His two primary pass-catchers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, have accounted for a combined 54.4% team target market share, an absurd 60.2% targets per route run rate, and 1,398 total air yards this season, making the Miami pass-catching corps extremely concentrated. Finally, due to Tua’s pocket passer status, his path to a GPP-viable score this week was likeliest to come through passing for 300+ yards and three or more touchdowns.
With such a highly concentrated pass-catching offense, and with Tua confined to pocket passer status, it makes sense that Tua would likely bring along (or be brought along with) Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua went on to throw for 382 yards and three touchdowns, with Waddle accounting for 106 yards and two scores on eight receptions and Hill turning 14 targets into 12 receptions for 188 yards. The trio combined for 100.28 fantasy points and set DraftKings user AllstarHarry well on his way to a massive payday. Finally, due to the status of the Lions on the other side of this game, where the team was getting D’Andre Swift back, likes to utilize multiple running backs, and had a pass-catching unit returning to health with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and T.J. Hockenson relatively healthy for the first time in over a month, it made sense to run the Miami stack without a correlated bring-back. As in, there were paths to the Lions pushing the Dolphins without one or two players seeing the bulk of the production. What eventually happened was just that – Jamaal Williams punched in two short scores while not seeing the volume required to be GPP-viable, Amon-Ra St. Brown saw double-digit targets but failed to score or eclipse 100 yards, and quarterback Jared Goff‘s only passing score went to running back D’Andre Swift.
Pairing those two ideas led to an opportunity to double-stack a concentrated offense with a pocket passer while not forcing a correlated bring-back from the other side.
Cheap Player Block
This is a technique rarely utilized by the field that One Week Season patrons have been privy to for three or four years now – the utilization of a cheap player “block,” or pairing, with a path to bulk scoring. Pioneered by One Week Season’s owner and creator Jordan Tohline (JMToWin), the cheap player block is a way to capture bulk scoring while reducing the variables that need to go right in order to succeed. DraftKings user AllstarHarry utilized this functionality through the selection of both Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin.
Although this combination might look like a waste of two roster spots to some, consider the state of the Jets against New England. Breece Hall was lost for the season due to an ACL tear, James Robinson was brought over mid-week and was not expected to see a large workload, Corey Davis was ruled out due to a knee injury, and Elijah Moore has expressed concern over his utilization in this offense publicly, going as far as missing a game due to his outward frustrations. That left just Tyler Conklin and Garrett Wilson as the pass-catchers likeliest to see increased volume against an opponent that naturally filters volume to the middle of the field. The two cost just $7,400 this week and went on to combine for 17 targets, putting up a massive 46.40 DK points – good for a lofty 6.27 salary multiplier on their modest combined salary. For comparison, A.J. Brown cost $7,700 this past week as the wide receiver priced closest to this player block. How much ownership would he have garnered if we knew for a fact he would see 17 targets heading into the slate? Obviously, we didn’t know for a fact that Conklin and Wilson would see a combined 17 targets, but I wanted to highlight the similarities through this process.
Alvin Kamara (Plus Saints D/ST)
Some might think this is heading towards a positive suggestion, when the fact of the matter is that the antiquated technique of pairing a team’s running back with his defense has been proven to bear little correlation, particularly in today’s NFL game where so much of the top tier of running backs derive upside from pass game usage. Kamara saw 10 targets this week on his way to three total touchdowns and 28 running back opportunities. Furthermore, any positive correlation between a team’s running back and their defense is arrived at through the notion that the team will see additional offensive plays run from scrimmage, and their running back will see increased rushing volume. The Saints ran just 54 offensive plays in the lopsided victory and Kamara saw only 18 carries. The increased targets Kamara has seen over the previous four games are a factor of the starting quarterback change (Andy Dalton has historically targeted the running back position and a higher rate than Jameis Winston has) and the dearth of viable pass-catching options on the roster (injuries to Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Adam Trautman). Therefore, we can arrive at the conclusion that the combination of Kamara and the Saints D/ST hit together randomly as opposed to being a correlated play. The fact that the field was reminded of the pairing of a team’s running back and their defense might lead to an increased utilization moving forward, something we can easily leverage away from.
Looking Ahead
Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + Joshua Palmer (Double-Stacked Pocket Passer)
Mike Williams is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury suffered in Week 7. Keenan Allen reportedly sat out the second half of that game because he “did not feel like he could burst” off his leg with the hamstring injury. Joshua Palmer missed Week 7 with a concussion but had the team’s bye week to clear protocol, meaning he should be a full-go in Week 9 (slightly different feel for Palmer coming off a concussion than Keenan Allen struggling through a high-grade hamstring injury). Tight end Gerald Everett has only one game all season with a snap rate over 67% as a plus pass-catcher but minus blocker. Finally, the Falcons have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season and have multiple injuries in their secondary.
All of that comes together to provide a high-upside team stack that doesn’t require a correlated bring-back due to the state of the Falcons offense (low pass volume with a split backfield). The proverbial cherry on top is the status of the Chargers defense, a unit that has been gashed on the ground all season and one that has allowed the second most points per game this season. The weakness of this defense aligns well with how we expect the Falcons to attack and means they should be pushed to remain aggressive on offense throughout the game.
Van Jefferson + Ben Skowronek (Cheap Player Block)
All-World wide receiver Cooper Kupp injured his ankle with only two minutes remaining in the Rams’ lopsided loss to the 49ers in Week 8, putting his availability in question for a game against a Buccaneers team struggling through injuries in the secondary. The state of the Rams’ backfield is such that the team has targeted the position only 31 times through seven games played. Skowronek would be the straight fill-in for Kupp, assuming he misses this contest, while Van Jefferson returned from injury to play 55% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 8. Finally, quarterback Matthew Stafford has attempted 33 or more passes in all but one game this season, cracking 41 pass attempts in three of seven. The pairing of Jefferson and Skowronek costs only $6,800 and has a path to 15+ targets this week (again, assuming Kupp is held out with his ankle injury).
Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins + Tyler Boyd (Double-Stacked Pocket Passer)
The Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expectation since Week 6 and are now to be without Ja’Marr Chase, increasing the concentration of the pass-catching corps in the process. In the two games since Week 6 (they play on MNF in Week 8), Joe Burrow has passed for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, also adding a rushing score in each game. This stack could get steamed based on the team’s performance on Monday night, but it currently stands as one of the highest upside stacks for Week 9 – even in a relatively difficult matchup with the Panthers.
