I’ve done some research in the past that suggests that players who are in contract years don’t actually perform any better than those who aren’t (or if they do, the effect is quite small). That doesn’t fit the narrative that players who are on the verge of signing a big contract will perform better during games, but I think it’s still true.
That doesn’t mean that money has no effect on players at all, though. Money is a powerful incentive in all sorts of fields, so it makes sense that it would be the same in the NFL. Specifically, I’ve always wondered how signing a big contract affects player performance. Do players stop trying so hard after landing a big payday?
To be clear, I don’t think players (for the most part) give any more or any less effort during games based on their financial situation. Football is a violent sport and players get graded quite rigorously on each play, so I don’t think it’s likely that many guys are continually dogging it. But it could be the case that players just don’t prepare for the season in the same manner when they don’t have a financial incentive to do so.
There seems to be a social stigma attached to doing something for money, especially playing a game, but we all do things for money (and we all pretty much try harder with more money on the line). I like to write about fantasy sports, but I wouldn’t do it as much as I do now if I didn’t get paid. Or what about if I won the lottery and suddenly was $100 million richer? Even though I love what I do, I imagine that would have an effect on my day-to-day motivation.
When that financial incentive to perform disappears (or weakens to a strong degree), it makes sense that performance will decline. But do the numbers fit the narrative?
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Post-Contract Numbers
I looked at the largest current contracts at each position in terms of guarantees, analyzing 60 players in total. I charted the average fantasy rank for each player at his position in the two years before his contract and in the two years afterward (when applicable).
Here’s how things look at the quarterback position.
Of the quarterbacks I analyzed, the average drop in fantasy rank was 3.5 spots. While that might seem insignificant, it’s actually 38.0 percent of their pre-contract rank.
The effect was much stronger at running back.
The running backs finished with an average rank of 11.1 in the seasons before their contract extensions, but only 19.0 following the deals. That’s a drop of 71.2 percent.
We have to be careful with the numbers on running backs because of the ridiculous aging curve at the position.
If I were a GM, I’d almost never give a running back a new deal. When that happens—typically around age 25 or so—you’re looking at a player who is likely to see a pretty precipitous drop in efficiency, regardless of his contract situation. That means it can be difficult to tell exactly why post-contract-extension running backs drop in fantasy football, but age is almost certainly a contributor.
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Anecdotally, I always envision wide receivers when thinking about players who have really declined following a big contract—guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Miles Austin and Mike Wallace, among others. Here are the overall numbers on receivers.
The wide receivers dropped from an average rank of 19.7 down to 28.5. That’s a 47.1 percent decline—not quite as large as I was expecting, but still significant.
And finally, the tight ends…
The typical tight end dropped just 1.5 spots after signing a new contract.
Failure Rates
Looking at all players together, we see an average pre-contract rank of 14.0 and an average post-contract rank of 19.5—a 39.3 percent decline. Another way to look at things, though, is to consider failure rates. What percentage of players have dropped in fantasy production after receiving a big contract?
Here, you can see that receivers have indeed been the least likely position to live up to their fantasy rank following a contract extension. Of the highest-paid receivers in the NFL, nearly 85 percent have fallen in fantasy land following their big payday! That’s significant.
A Selection Bias
I think it’s important to note that there is a clear selection bias at work here. Think about which types of players typically receive contract extensions: those who have performed at a high level in the recent past. Quality real-life players are typically high in the fantasy football ranks, too.
Well, if we’re analyzing solely those players who have performed really well of late, we’re probably catching a high number of players who have overachieved and are due to regress, more money or not. When you finish second at your position, for example, there isn’t all that much room for improvement.
Also, there are lots of situations when we might not expect a player to perform worse after signing a contract extension. I broke things down by position because I thought that was of value, but maybe certain types of players are more (or less) likely to maintain motivation even after seeing eight figures in their bank accounts.
I still think the data is useful, though, and I’m not sure we can use selection bias to explain all of the drop in fantasy production. At the very least, it seems like wide receivers, for whatever reason, have a high probability of not living up to the hype of a new contract.
Of course, use all of this information on a case-by-case basis. We don’t really need to worry about the work ethic and motivation of someone like Peyton Manning for example. But what about Player X who just signed a $50 million deal and decided to skip OTAs and was also fined for being late to team meetings?
And finally, I think the data is probably best used in tiebreaker situations. While I wouldn’t always avoid post-contract players, it seems rational to generally fade them in favor of comparable players who haven’t yet hit the jackpot.
