For those poor souls who only get a taste of fantasy football once redraft season begins in full force over the summer, the NFL Draft is just a brief respite in the football desert. For those who play Dynasty, however, the beginning of May brings with it the start of rookie draft season, a time of year filled with hope and proclamations about long-term upside never likely to be realized. In a word, it is wonderful.
This, however, is an interesting (read: disappointing) year for Dynasty rookies. The running back class lacks both high-end talent and significant depth, receiver has a strong foundation but questionable peak, the quarterback group only has one really transcendent player, and the fall off after the first two tight ends is dramatic. That is not to say there is no value in this group, but this is a relatively weak crop of Dynasty rookies.
That is not expected to be the case next year, especially for a running back class which is expected to feature Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, and Clemson’s Travis Etienne among many, many others. With that in mind, it makes sense for teams picking at the end of the first round, squads which likely have good roster situations, to trade their 2019 first for a 2020 first and a sweetener where possible. The pick next year is likely to be more valuable even if it ends up in the same spot.
This year’s draft cannot be foregone completely, though, and there are still some interesting names both at the top and throughout the draft.
*Note: A top 50 follows the position-by-position rankings.
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Quarterback
Two-quarterback formats are the exception, but in most cases it is important to avoid overvaluing rookie quarterbacks in Dynasty, especially in shallower leagues. This year could prove to be an exception. With the lack of proven talent at running back and receiver, there is room for a truly special quarterback to sneak into the first round, and the Cardinals drafted one of those No. 1 overall.
1. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
There is no question about who should be the top quarterback. Not only is Murray the No. 1 overall pick heading to a team which added an offensive-minded coach this offseason and three receivers in the draft, but he has the perfect blend of skills for fantasy success. He can both make plays from the pocket and create havoc with his legs. He has the talent to be a more explosive Deshaun Watson, who has finished as the QB1 and QB4 in per-game scoring over his first two years in the league, and he is going to a coach whose quarterbacks averaged a combined 701.1 passing and rushing attempts per season when he was in the college ranks. Not only is Murray easily the best quarterback available in rookie drafts, he is worth a first-round pick even in one-quarterback formats. He is the clear 1.01 in two-quarterback leagues.
2. Dwayne Haskins, Washington
Haskins has two big things working in his favor. First, he is the No. 15 pick by a team which had Case Keenum and Colt McCoy atop the depth chart heading into the draft. There is a good chance Haskins opens the season in the starting lineup. Second, his style should fit extremely well with coach Jay Gruden’s offense, an offense which facilitated dueling QB5 finishes for Kirk Cousins over his final two seasons in Washington. On the other side, Haskins is unlikely to offer much as a runner unless he falls into the end zone a few times, and it is becoming more difficult for quarterbacks to be high-end fantasy producers without rushing production. Drew Brees threw for 3,992 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2018, but even with four fluke rushing scores he was only the QB8 in part because he finished the season with 22 rushing yards. Haskins also does not have a great situation at receiver despite Washington adding former Ohio State teammate Terry McLaurin in the third round. Haskins is the clear No. 2 on this list, but it is tough to see him as more than a third-round rookie pick.
3. Drew Lock, Broncos
There is a massive gulf between Haskins and the next two quarterbacks worthy of a look in Dynasty drafts. On the other side of that divide is a philosophical question between draft capital and personal evaluation. In essence, both Lock and Jones are in the same situation behind an aging Super Bowl quarterback who could be forced to the sidelines this season or continue on for several more. Jones, however, was selected No. 6 overall while Lock waited until the second round to hear his name, and that draft capital puts more pressure on the Giants to insert Jones if Eli Manning continues to be bad. Then again, the Broncos will not have the same kind of organizational guilt about benching Joe Flacco, who just joined the team. Ultimately, this comes down to personal evaluation. I could certainly be wrong, but Lock looks like a better prospect than Jones with a better chance to become the type of playmaker who belongs in a fantasy lineup.
4. Daniel Jones, Giants
Jones’ inclusion on this list is all about draft capital. The Giants spent the No. 6 overall pick on him. They are not just going to throw him to the curb like they did Davis Webb and like it seems they are doing to Kyle Lauletta. At some point – perhaps this season – he is going to get a shot to prove what he can do, and it is certainly possible I am way off about his NFL viability.
Honorable Mention: Perhaps Will Grier or Ryan Finley develop into low-end starters, but it is both unlikely that happens and unlikely they will be special fantasy starters even if they do. Spending a late-round rookie pick on a running back or receiver makes more sense.
