Below are my post-draft positional rookie ranks and a Superflex top 50. In addition, you can find detailed profiles of all of the top prospects in my pre-draft profiles.
QB Profiles
Top-5 Quarterbacks
TE Profiles
Top-9 Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Welp. I hope you like low-ceiling quarterbacks as much as the Steelers. After he went 20th in the NFL draft, it’s impossible not to rank Kenny Pickett as the Superflex QB1... and believe me, I’ve tried.
I’ve happily drafted the “bad quarterback” in each of the last three years. Sure, that landed me Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson, but I also drafted Justin Herbert. However, Pickett has far less of a built-in floor as the 20th pick than Wilson, Herbert, and Jones, who were all top 10 picks.
Elite draft capital is a big deal. Zach Wilson was outplayed by Mike White in 2021; it earned him Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. If Pickett delivers that same level of play, the Steelers will probably just move on instead of doubling down. Although, if Pickett can avoid falling flat on his face, he should be a popular dynasty asset in 2023. And like Jones in 2020 and Zach Wilson now, it should be easy to trade him for more than the mid-late first it took to get him.
Maybe I’m pulling a Jets and doubling down on a mistake, but I’m still taking shots on Malik Willis. If the A.J. Brown-less Titans are eliminated from playoff contention in either of the next two seasons, are we really not seeing Malik Willis? And with a skillset perfectly tailored to fantasy football, I’d be shocked if Willis can’t generate excitement when he gets on the field. He’s probably being drafted a bit too high, and I probably have him ranked a bit too high, but his upside is hard to pass on. And there are some values out there; I’ve seen Desmond Ridder go ahead of him. Couldn’t be me.
Instead, I’d rather bet on Matt Corral. We know how Sam Darnold‘s 2022 is going to go. Everything exists within a range of outcomes... except Sam Darnold. He’s going to be bad. Corral has a decently high ceiling as a willing scrambler with accuracy and has enough weapons around him to succeed right away. He’s a low-floor play, but his ADP mostly bakes that in.
Running Backs
- Breece Hall
- Kenneth Walker
- Rachaad White
- James Cook
- Tyler Allgeier
- Isaiah Spiller
- Dameon Pierce
- Zamir White
- Pierre Strong
- Tyrion Davis-Price
- Brian Robinson
- Kyren Williams
- Keaontay Ingram
- Trestan Ebner
- Tyler Badie
- Hassan Haskins
- Ty Chandler
- Jerome Ford
- Kevin Harris
Breece Hall is a great running back prospect, but not a flawless one. Specifically, his 0.98 yards per route run put him in the Cam Akers (0.93), Ezekiel Elliott (0.88) and Melvin Gordon (0.81) receiving tier, where he should be a capable receiver but won’t necessarily dictate a pass-catching role. Here’s how I put it pre-draft:
It could now take Hall several years to earn an every-down role, and he may never get there. Connor Hughes (who covers the team for The Athletic) believes the Jets “will deploy a running back by committee as long as Mike LaFleur is their offensive coordinator.”
Hall should still be the 1.01 in shallower, more running back-focused formats, as it’s well within the range of outcomes that he takes over the backfield quickly. But in deeper leagues, it’s a get-your-guy year.
Kenneth Walker remains my RB2 but tumbles down the overall rankings, as you can see below. Seattle doesn’t throw to their running backs, so he has little chance of developing as a receiver under the current regime. It’s possible a new coaching staff eventually expands Walker’s usage. But for now, he’s an early-down committee back on an antique offense.
My exuberance for Rachaad White knows no bounds.
White seems underpriced if anything https://t.co/4dbEcj905b
— Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane) May 2, 2022
Here’s the thing. White doesn’t need to carve out a specific role in the offense to flash receiving ability. White, a highly efficient college receiver, is now paired with Tom Brady, who throws to his running backs—any running back—regardless of the situation. Ronald Jones had 42 targets in 2020; White just has to get on the field, and he’ll get targets. In 2023, Brady will likely be gone; but unfortunately, Leonard Fournette is locked up through the end of that season. That’s not ideal. But at 214 pounds, White is unlikely to be a workhorse at any point in his career. And if he’s going to share the backfield with someone in 2023, it might as well be a 28-year-old Fournette. If he can’t emerge as a receiver under those circumstances, it wasn’t happening. On the other hand, White’s receiving profile gives him RB1 upside if he can eventually work into an Aaron Jones-type role.
James Cook feels a tad overvalued, with the Bills seeming to view him as a receiving specialist rather than Singletary’s every-down heir. But he certainly has upside, given his draft capital.
Beyond Cook, this class provides several Day 3 backs with interesting paths to opportunity, but Tyler Allgeier is my favorite bet. Allgeier slots in as Day 3 Derrick Henry in the Falcons’ ongoing quest to assemble the JV Titans.
Other Day 3 names are also intriguing. Isaiah Spiller immediately becomes one of fantasy’s most exciting handcuffs. And with Austin Ekeler potentially moving on after 2023, Spiller has an unlikely but plausible path to becoming a long-term starter. Dameon Pierce should see opportunity more quickly. In fact, he could take over the Houston backfield if he was as criminally underused in college as some suspect. Still, it’s best to keep the cost low when betting on a career college committee back.
Beyond that, it’s really about placing your preferred longshot bets. I’m a bit skeptical of Zamir White, but I’m not looking to be completely out on a big back with speed, particularly one who could be a clear-cut early-down starter by this time next year. Pierre Strong could similarly emerge if the Patriots move on from Damien Harris after the year. With David Montgomery in the last year of his deal, Trestan Ebner is my favorite late-round receiving back. Keaontay Ingram is my favorite ultra-cheap contingency play behind James Conner.
Wide Receivers
- Treylon Burks
- Drake London
- Garrett Wilson
- Jameson Williams
- Skyy Moore
- Chris Olave
- George Pickens
- Christian Watson
- David Bell
- Jahan Dotson
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Jalen Tolbert
- John Metchie
- Alec Pierce
- Tyquan Thornton
- Romeo Doubs
- Khalil Shakir
- Calvin Austin III
- Danny Gray
- Justyn Ross
Treylon Burks, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson are good enough prospects that all three are defensible picks as the WR1 in this class. Wilson won’t get that ranking because of his landing spot, but he checks every box we’re looking for from an elite talent. And elite wide receivers can transform an offense.
Still, it’s nice if a guy doesn’t have to be a superstar to produce right away. Both Burks and London are positioned to deliver strong rookie production even if they aren’t immediately stars. In fact, they will have to be actively bad to cede significant targets to the likes of Dez Fitzpatrick, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Auden Tate. Robert Woods will have a role on the Titans once healthy, as will Kyle Pitts on the Falcons, but both Burks and London have a very low bar to clear for rookie production. Both are very much in play for the Superflex 1.01.
Jameson Williams is not likely to produce much as a rookie, but the fact that the Lions traded up to draft him at 12 overall when he tore his ACL in January (!) is incredible. In addition, the Lions can save nearly $26 million by cutting Jared Goff after the season, giving them a chance to find a quarterback who better meshes with Williams’ elite downfield skillset.
JJ Zachariason has the perfect Skyy Moore comp, and I’m mad I didn’t think of it.
My DJ Moore comp is alive and well.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) May 1, 2022
Like DJ Moore, Skyy Moore is not an elite downfield option, but he’s excellent on intermediate and shallow routes and is great after the catch. With JuJu Smith-Schuster taking a significant amount of slot snaps, Moore will be playing at least somewhat on the outside, giving him an exciting ceiling with Patrick Mahomes.
George Pickens feels buried in Pittsburgh, but Diontae Johnson is a free agent next spring, and if Pickens recaptures his 2019 form, it won’t matter who he’s playing with.
David Bell lands in a perfect spot, given that I’ve been comping him to Jarvis Landry. Bell’s real-life ceiling isn’t that exciting, but his PPR upside is. As an underneath option on a potentially prolific passing offense, Bell is someone I want plenty of exposure to.
Christian Watson is a very raw wide receiver, and I think he’ll mostly be filling the Marquez Valdes-Scantling role as a rookie, plus some added schemed targets. At the same time, if he hits his ceiling, missing out on him will not be fun. I’m lower than consensus, but I recommend getting some exposure.
Jahan Dotson can hit his ceiling, and I think I’ll be just fine with my fade call. At 178 pounds and without elite speed (4.43 40), Dotson could ultimately develop into slower Darnell Mooney (4.38). Still, even if he’s a Mooney-level talent and Terry McLaurin leaves Washington, what is Dotson’s realistic ceiling without good quarterback play? According to Dynasty League Football, Darnell Mooney‘s trade value is less than the Superflex/TE-premium 2.08. And that’s as his team’s clear No. 1 option. I have Dotson as the Superflex 2.06, which perhaps sells him short a bit if he can provide two years of decent production and maintain second-round value... but that feels like his ceiling.
After Dotson, there comes the point where you’re really just better off drafting running backs. I think that cutoff is after Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalen Tolbert, but that is partly why I’m below ADP on John Metchie and Alec Pierce.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride is stuck behind Zach Ertz, but that didn’t stop Dallas Goedert from emerging. McBride will need to be talented to make an impact, but his prospect profile suggests that he is.
Greg Dulcich‘s situation is murkier. Dulcich profiles as a move tight end, meaning that he could theoretically share the field with traditional inline tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. But given their depth at wide receiver, it would be odd for the Broncos to use a lot of 2TE sets. Instead, Dulcich likely needs Denver to shift towards a Darren Waller-style approach to the position. With that in mind, Dulcich will need to impress as a receiver to displace Okwuegbunam’s combination of receiving and blocking. His profile suggests that he could be talented enough to pull it off. Dulcich’s downfield ability will make him well worth the risk if he hits.
Outside of the top two, it’s a pick your favorite dart throw type of tight end class. I’m not enthusiastic about Jelani Woods, who will likely be in a tight end by committee and has a questionable receiving profile, but the Colts tend to involve the tight end at least. I see the clearest path to long-term starting roles for Jeremy Ruckert and Daniel Bellinger, but there’s no shame in panic-picking Isaiah Likely.
ADP
Shoutout to @Aideiko_FF who has been compiling Superflex ADP from ongoing drafts. In the image at the bottom of this article I have a versus ADP column that compares my overall ranks to this ADP.
Since most Rookie drafts are already in the third round, here is an update on all the ADP that I've collected this month. In total it has 423 Suplerflex Rookie Drafts and 53 Supleflex Startups since April 30. 🧵 Thread 👇 1/9 pic.twitter.com/duypKwTRbu
— Adeiko (@Adeiko_FF) May 3, 2022
Superflex Top 50
- WR, Treylon Burks, TEN
- RB, Breece Hall, NYJ
- WR, Drake London, ATL
- WR, Garrett Wilson, NYJ
- WR, Jameson Williams, DET
- WR, Skyy Moore, KC
- RB, Kenneth Walker III, SEA
- WR, Chris Olave, NO
- QB, Kenny Pickett, PIT
- WR, George Pickens, PIT
- QB, Malik Willis, TEN
- WR, Christian Watson, GB
- RB, Rachaad White, TB
- RB, James Cook, BUF
- WR, David Bell, CLE
- QB, Matt Corral, CAR
- QB, Desmond Ridder, ATL
- WR, Jahan Dotson, WAS
- RB, Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- TE, Trey McBride, ARI
- RB, Isaiah Spiller, LAC
- WR, Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG
- WR, Jalen Tolbert, DAL
- RB, Dameon Pierce, HOU
- WR, John Metchie, HOU
- WR, Alec Pierce, IND
- RB, Zamir White, LV
- TE, Greg Dulcich, DEN
- QB, Sam Howell, WAS
- RB, Pierre Strong, NE
- WR, Tyquan Thornton, NE
- RB, Tyrion Davis-Price, SF
- RB, Brian Robinson, WAS
- RB, Kyren Williams, LAR
- RB, Keaontay Ingram, ARI
- WR, Romeo Doubs, GB
- RB, Trestan Ebner, CHI
- RB, Tyler Badie, BAL
- WR, Khalil Shakir, BUF
- WR, Calvin Austin III, PIT
- RB, Hassan Haskins, TEN
- RB, Ty Chandler, MIN
- RB, Jerome Ford, CLE
- RB, Kevin Harris, NE
- TE, Jeremy Ruckert, NYJ
- WR, Danny Gray, SF
- TE, Daniel Bellinger, NYG
- TE, Jelani Woods, IND
- WR, Justyn Ross, KC
- QB, Bailey Zappe, NE
Rankings Image
(for quick reference)
