With the NFL draft around the corner, I’m releasing my pre-draft rookie ranks with in-depth analytical profiles. In Part 1, I covered my top five rookie running backs and went more in-depth on the metrics that I’m using to evaluate their college efficiency. Below are my 6-12th ranked running backs.
These rankings are fantasy football-focused and driven by statistical metrics I’ll explain throughout the profiles. These rankings also factor in expected NFL draft position. NFL draft position, and the scouting that drives it, plays a huge role in prospects’ success and failure. The biggest post-draft swings in my rankings will come from draft-dependent prospects locking in high draft capital and strong analytical prospects slipping more than expected in the draft.
Regarding draft position, it is my hope that, as much as possible, NFL general managers, scouts, and evaluators are not factoring in the various metrics that I rely on in my positional ranks. If they were, I could save a lot of time and just rank prospects by expected draft position. Obviously, there is overlap between what scouts are looking for and the type of stats teams tend to favor when putting their boards together. But ideally, the metrics below are adding a predictive element that we can add to draft position to better predict fantasy success.
These profiles also include statistical comps. These comps are based on key metrics for running backs like elusiveness, breakaway ability, yards per route run, career production, weight, speed, and expected draft position. The comps won’t always be perfect stylistically. Instead, the primary purpose of the comps is to help illuminate a range of outcomes for each player and serve as a reminder that a player’s prospect profile is a helpful tool in projecting them to the next level even if an imperfect one.
6) James Cook
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - James Cook is undersized but not small, weighing in at 5 foot 11, 199 pounds at the Combine, and he impressed with a 4.42 40 and a 124-inch broad jump. His 33-inch vertical wasn’t ideal, but otherwise, it was a great day and gave Cook a chance to hear his name on Day 2 of the draft.
Rushing Production - Cook played four years at Georgia but was a committee back throughout his career, totaling just 117 attempts for 775 yards and seven TDs yards in his first 31 college games. In 2021, he stepped things up with a 113-728-7 rushing line.
Elusiveness - Cook was decently elusive on a per-touch basis with a career elusive rating of 80, ranking 57th percentile. He was far less impressive on a per-game basis, ranking just 6th percentile elusiveness per game. The metric is reacting to the fact that Cook wasn’t a starter in college; he played behind Zamir White. Cooks should be able to break tackles when on the field, but there’s a strong chance that he remains a committee back.
Breakaway ability - Cook was in the 7th percentile in breakaway yards per game, but he’s penalized for splitting his college backfield and flashed potential -- his 43% breakaway rate ranks 57th percentile. With his 4.42 speed, he could translate his long-run ability to the NFL. Cook’s breakaway ability also gives him a chance to impress his coaches and earn more work, and it could even make him fantasy viable even on a small workload.
Receiving ability - Despite limited usage at Georgia, Cook had decent receiving production, averaging 1.5 receptions and 15.9 receiving yards per game with six career TDs. Also, his efficiency was excellent, with 1.95 YPRR. Admittedly, Cook’s wasn’t quite to Chase Edmonds’ (2.26) or Alvin Kamara‘s (2.49) level, but he was a more efficient college receiver than Aaron Jones (1.84), Tony Pollard (1.74), Saquon Barkley (1.66), and D’Andre Swift (1.53).
Outlook - Cook is a bit hard to pin down as a prospect. On the one hand, he looks like a satellite back who was efficient enough to have standalone fantasy value as a receiver. On the other hand, he’s not a lock to impress in that role. His YPRR wasn’t that much better than Darwin Thompson‘s (1.91), Jeremy McNichols’ (1.86), Mark Walton‘s (1.71), or C.J. Prosise‘s (1.69). But Cook has a second path to viability. Although he was a committee back, his 43% breakaway percentage points to some upside as a 1A back in the NFL. In that regard, he profiles similarly to Elijah Mitchell and Michael Carter.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 2nd
7) Dameon Pierce
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - Pierce ran a 4.59 40 at the Combine with a 34.5-inch vertical and a 119-inch broad jump. He stood on those mediocre numbers at his Pro Day and turned in rough agility times with a 7.53 3-cone and a 4.46 short shuttle. Pierce does at least have size at 5 foot 10, 218 pounds.
Rushing Production - At Florida, Pierce totaled 1,806 rushing yards and 23 TDs with a career 5.5 YPC. His rushing yardage was uninspiring, never hitting 600+ rushing yards in any of his four seasons, but he had 13 rushing TDs on just 100 attempts in 2021. He could have RB2 fantasy value even as a committee back if that goal-line ability translates.
Elusiveness - Pierce was a very elusive runner with a 96 career elusive rating, ranking 78th percentile. With a career-high of just 106 attempts, it’s no surprise that he scored much worse in elusiveness per game, ranking 14th percentile. Pierce can definitely make people miss, but he has yet to demonstrate that ability on a heavy workload.
Breakaway ability - Pierce is not a breakaway runner, with a 35% career breakaway percentage and a pitiful 13 breakaway yards per game, but this doesn’t necessarily doom Pierce to irrelevance. Josh Jacobs managed just a 31% breakaway percentage and 11 breakaway yards per game, and Chris Carson (32%, 16), Kerryon Johnson (28%, 19), and Alexander Mattison (26%, 19) were also unimpressive. Pierce is a distinct type of running back that can make people miss but won’t rip off long runs with any regularity.
Receiving ability - Pierce is one of the many competent but unimpressive receiving prospects in this class. He averaged just 0.9 receptions and 8.8 receiving yards per game, but that was primarily driven by his sparing usage overall, and he padded his scoring resume with five receiving TDs. Pierce wasn’t very productive in the passing game, but he was decently efficient, with a solid 1.07 YPRR. He should have no trouble staying in on receiving downs if his team doesn’t have a better option.
Outlook - Pierce is a pretty uninspiring prospect in a lot of ways. He was a college committee back who flashed some efficiency but will likely struggle to hit long runs as a pro. Generally, if I’m going to bet on a committee runner, I want him to be able to score points at a high rate per touch. But despite his lack of breakaway ability, Pierce does fit the bill in that regard. With a 218-pound frame, a powerful running style that makes him 2022’s highlight all-star (per Hayden Winks), impressive tackle-breaking per touch, and 28 TDs on just 374 college touches, Pierce profiles as a strong fantasy option if he gets more work in the NFL than he did at Florida. Even if he ends up in a clear backup role, he could have Alexander Mattison-level fill-in upside. Then again, his closest comp in my model is La’Mical Perine, and he has downside to tumble down a depth chart. Pierce is an appealing dart throw but will be a dangerous bet if draft position and landing spot increase his ADP.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
8) Kyren Williams
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - Williams had a rough day at the Combine. First, he weighed in at just 5 foot 9, 194 pounds. Then he ran a 4.65 40 and posted a 32-inch vertical and 116-inch broad jump, all very poor numbers for his size. He turned in a 7.07 3-cone at his Pro Day, which is decent but still below the level we’d prefer for a receiving back.
Rushing Production - Williams emerged as a true sophomore in 2020 with a 211-1,125-13 rushing line in 12 games. He followed up with 204-1,002-14 in 12 games. He wasn’t a workhorse, but he wasn’t a pass-catching specialist either. Williams was a legitimate college rusher.
Elusiveness - Williams was decently elusive at Notre Dame with an 83 career elusive rating, ranking 62nd percentile. He was better from a per-game perspective with 76th percentile elusiveness per game rating, aided by his healthy workload.
Breakaway ability - Williams’ lack of breakaway ability makes a lot more sense now that we know he has 4.65 speed. With a 35% career breakaway percentage, he displayed a Benny Snell-esque breakaway rate. He wasn’t much better on a per-game basis, with just 29 breakaway yards per game, 42nd percentile.
Receiving ability - Williams was a good college receiver, averaging 3.0 receptions and 26 receiving yards per game with four career TDs. He was also efficient with a 1.52 career YPRR. Williams does not profile as an elite receiving prospect, however. His YPRR is similar to strong NFL receivers like D’Andre Swift (1.53), Nyheim Hines (1.39), and Michael Carter (1.24), but he’s also near a plethora of guys we thought could be difference-making receivers but weren’t, such as Mark Walton (1.71), C.J. Prosise (1.69), Donnel Pumphrey (1.56), Darrell Henderson (1.55), Ito Smith (1.50), Bryce Love (1.49), Jason Huntley (1.36), and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (1.26).
Outlook - Williams has the size of a receiving specialist, but his 1.52 YPRR is more indicative of a solid NFL receiver rather than one who will force his way onto the field for passing downs. Nyheim Hines achieved success as a pure satellite back with just a 1.39 YPRR, and Hines was less elusive. But Hines was a far better athlete with a 4.35 40, a 36-inch vertical, 121-inch broad jump, and a 6.90 3-cone. Instead, Williams projects to be more of an Ito Smith type -- a committee runner who can be effective in the passing game. Williams is unlikely to amaze in a limited snap role. Still, he could impress by handling a bigger workload than expected for his size, and he won’t embarrass himself if installed as a receiving specialist.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
9) Pierre Strong
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - Strong weighed in at the Combine at 5 foot 11, 207 pounds and had an impressive showing with a 4.37 40, a 36-inch vertical, and a 124-inch broad jump. Strong is a very old prospect, turning 24 in December, and he has level of competition red flags, having played in the FCS. But Strong’s athleticism should help alleviate some of those concerns, and he has a good chance of going early on Day 3.
Rushing Production - Strong had a very productive four-year career at South Dakota State. He emerged as a redshirt freshman with 1,116 rushing yards and 11 TDs and went on to total 4,527 yards and 40 TDs in 48 career games, with a 7.2 YPC.
Elusiveness - Strong was highly elusive against his FCS competition, recording a 100 career elusive rating, which ranks 82nd percentile among drafted running backs.
Unfortunately, Strong was a committee back in college. In 2018-19, his backfield mate Mikey McDaniel totaled a 252-1,196-17 rushing line in 25 games. In 2020-21, Isaiah Davis totaled a 192-1,532-17 rushing line in 17 games. The Jackrabbits often had a third running back mixing in, as well. As a result, Strong’s elusiveness per game is not nearly as impressive, ranking 58th percentile.
Breakaway ability - Another explanation for Strong’s smaller than ideal workload was that he was simply too good at breaking long runs. Strong had a 54% career breakaway percentage, which ranks 93rd percentile. Admittedly, the leaderboard in career breakaway percentage doubles as a list of guys we got too excited about: Jake Funk (64%), Darrell Henderson (63%), Ty Johnson (61%), Bryce Love (60%), Tevin Coleman (57%), and Anthony McFarland (57%). But Strong also excelled on a per-game basis, ranking 90th percentile in breakaway yards per game. The leaders in that metric are much more impressive: Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, and Dalvin Cook.
Receiving ability - Strong averaged just 1.3 receptions and 12.1 receiving yards per game with three career receiving TDs, but Strong didn’t run many routes and had a 0.92 YPRR — a minor red flag rather than a major one. He is unlikely to ever become a receiving back, but like Hall and Spiller, he projects to be competent enough to remain on the field for passing downs if the situation presents itself.
Outlook - Strong’s statistical profile is impressive but difficult to trust given his age and competition. That said, he flashed elite breakaway production with speed to match, which sometimes is all you need. JJ Zachariason comped him to Elijah Mitchell on our RB Deep Dive pod, and the consensus view on Strong is that he is a one-cut runner who should be an easy fit for one of the many Shanahan-tree offenses in the league. So while his profile is far from perfect, Strong’s college production, physical skillset, and NFL fit are all rowing in the same direction. As a one-cut runner, Strong’s speed and breakaway ability could make him a solid fantasy RB2.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
10) Tyler Badie
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - Badie weighed in at the combine at 5 foot 8, 197 pounds and posted a 4.45 40, a 33-inch vertical, and a 121-inch broad jump. He’ll likely be a Day 3 pick.
Rushing Production - Badie played four seasons at Missouri, finishing with a 5.3 YPC. He didn’t fully emerge as a rusher until 2021 when he recorded a 268-1,604-14 rushing line in 12 games. As a senior, he also scored very highly in Blair Andrew’s backfield dominator metric, a key indicator for undervalued rushers like Phillip Lindsay.
Elusiveness - Badie finished with a 54 career elusive rating, ranking 21st percentile. He also ranked just 27th percentile in elusiveness per game. The list of running backs who rank sub-50th percentile in both metrics is littered with fantasy backs you didn’t want to draft. This was a major red flag even for solid pass catchers like Mark Walton, Rodney Anderson, and Dwayne Washington. Although, Mike Davis’ pass-catching chops eventually helped him emerge for a stretch despite poor elusiveness.
Breakaway ability - Badie’s 38% career breakaway percentage is above the danger zone, but it’s still not ideal. And he managed just 22 breakaway yards per game, which ranks 27th percentile. So it’s safe to assume he won’t be ripping off long runs at a high clip.
Receiving ability - Badie averaged 2.7 receptions and 25 receiving yards per game with 11 career receiving TDs. And in his final season, he averaged 4.5 receptions and 27.5 receiving yards per game with four TDs. Badie was a highly productive receiver, and he was also efficient. With a career 1.64 YPRR, he profiles similarly to Nyheim Hines (1.39).
Outlook - Badie profiles in some ways like a satellite back, sharing a lot of similarities with Hines and Demetric Felton, but poor scores in elusiveness and breakaway ability make it harder to view him as an exciting space back. Instead, he profiles more like a smaller Mike Davis or a bigger Phillip Lindsay. He probably won’t be dynamic enough to carve out a dedicated receiving role like Tarik Cohen or Nyheim Hines did, but he has a shot of operating as a 1A back with a receiving role... if the right situation emerges.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
11) Brian Robinson
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - Robinson weighed in at the combine at 6 foot 1.5, 225 pounds, and had an uninspiring day with a 4.53 40, a 30-inch vertical, and a 119-inch broad jump. He’s not an impressive NFL athlete, but he showed sufficient straight-line speed to protect his draft position.
Rushing Production - Robinson played five years at Alabama. He didn’t redshirt; he took advantage of the additional year of eligibility the NCAA afforded players because of the pandemic. It’s a good thing he stayed in school. Before 2021, Robinson had just 1,361 career rushing yards and 15 TDs in 41 career games. He nearly doubled his production in 2021, recording 271 attempts for 1,343 yards and 14 TDs.
Elusiveness - Robinson’s elusiveness per game is only 26th percentile because he wasn’t a starter for four of his five seasons, but it’s hard to really blame him for that. Robinson came to Alabama the same year as Najee Harris, joining a team that had a sophomore Josh Jacobs and a junior Damien Harris. Robinson was decently elusive on a per-touch basis with an 83 elusive rating, 62nd percentile. His profile raises concerns that he could have trouble earning the top spot on a depth chart, but he should be sufficiently hard to tackle if he gets his shot.
Breakaway ability - Robinson ranks just sixth percentile in breakaway yards per game... but he was actually worse in breakaway percentage, which is the type of metric that committee runners can crush. The issue is that to crush in breakaway percentage, you actually have to hit long runs. With a 27% breakaway percentage that ranks just third percentile, Robinson projects as an unexciting NFL back in the mold of Kerryon Johnson (28%), Alexander Mattison (26%), or T.J. Yeldon (25%).
Receiving ability - Robinson’s career receiving production per game is predictably terrible since he was a four-year backup, but after recording just 17 receptions in 41 games from 2017-20, he posted a 35-296-2 receiving line in 2021. That was good for 2.5 receptions and 21.1 receiving yards per game. Robinson’s career efficiency backs up the idea that he is a capable receiver when actually on the field. Robinson is a long way from forcing his way onto the field for passing downs, but his 0.90 YPRR is indicative of a capable receiver who should have no trouble handling check-downs as needed.
Outlook - Robinson does not rate well in my model, but he looks a lot like other backs who didn’t score well either but went on to get a shot. As Davis Mattek put it on our running back Deep Dive podcast, NFL coaches will love Brian Robinson. That seems backed up by draft buzz that has him as a borderline Day 2 pick while statistically more interesting bigger backs could fall out of the draft entirely. Robinson is an older committee back who never flashed in any of my preferred metrics, but he’s also a competent tackle breaker who can play on passing downs and comes with Alabama pedigree. He’s unlikely to deliver long runs consistently, but he looks perfectly capable of a stretch of RB2 value if given the opportunity.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 3rd
12) Zamir White
Statistical Comps
Athleticism - White impressed at the Combine with a 4.4 40, a 33.5-inch vertical, and a 128-inch broad jump, and he did so with solid size -- 6 feet, 214 pounds.
Rushing Production - White only logged 78 attempts as a redshirt freshman in 2019. He was recovering from an ACL tear in his left knee he suffered in the 2018 preseason and was less than two years removed from an ACL tear in his right knee. Nevertheless, White moved into the starting role in 2020, and over the next two seasons, he recorded 1,635 rushing yards and 22 TDs. Sharing a backfield with James Cook, White topped out at 160 rushing attempts and 856 yards in his best season.
Elusiveness - White ranks just 25th percentile in elusiveness per game, but the metric may be over-penalizing him for sharing the backfield with another talented player. Still, he wasn’t impressive from a per-touch perspective either with a 73 elusive rating that ranks 48th percentile. Again, as with Tyler Badie, this is a major red flag. Even strong athletes like Darrynton Evans, Joe Williams, and Darius Jackson have floundered in the NFL after struggling with elusiveness in college.
Breakaway ability - White only had 15 breakaway yards per game, which ranks 10th percentile. This is somewhat understandable because he was splitting a backfield... but White was even worse in breakaway percentage with a 27% rate, ranking in the third percentile. White has 4.4 speed, so his lack of long runs is strange. In fact, T.J. Logan is the only other drafted running back since 2015 to post a 4.4 speed or better with a sub-35% breakaway percentage. However, we’ve seen six backs with sub-4.5 speed fail to hit a 35% breakaway percentage: Joshua Kelley, Kalen Ballage, Jordan Scarlett, Wendell Smallwood, Alexander Mattison, and Daniel Lasco. Chris Carson and Kerryon Johnson also struggled with breakaway ability despite impressing in the broad jump, as White did. White’s athleticism gives him upside, but he hasn’t flashed the on-field ceiling to match it so far.
Receiving ability - In 37 career games, White managed a receiving line of just 17-132-0. In his last two seasons, he averaged just 0.6 receptions and 3.0 receiving yards per game as a starter. Of course, the context here is that he shared a backfield with James Cook, an excellent college receiving back. But... White also struggled badly on a per route basis. With a career 0.58 YPRR, he was a less efficient receiving back than Derrick Henry (0.67), Ronald Jones (0.64), Benny Snell (0.64), D’Onta Foreman (0.62), Jonathan Williams (0.62), Matt Jones (0.60), and many backs who have failed to impress as NFL receivers. As I mentioned in covering Kenneth Walker, who has an even worse 0.45 YPRR, we have seen backs like James Robinson (0.63), and Miles Sanders (0.53) overcome this red flag to earn receiving work. Still, White’s receiving profile isn’t just collateral damage from having shared a backfield with James Cook. It’s a genuine red flag.
Outlook - White disappoints in every metric I look at, was a career committee back, and has medical red flags with ACL tears in both knees. But he has decent size, is athletic, and was considered the top running back recruit in the nation in the 2018 class. He’s the type of player where it makes sense to bet he can be a better player in the NFL than he was in college. Sometimes those bets turn out to be Miles Sanders; sometimes, they’re Kalen Ballage.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Flier
