The NFL’s offseason activity is in full swing. We’ve seen trades with major fantasy implications and a flurry of signings since the legal tampering period opened on Monday at noon eastern. Free agency doesn’t officially begin until Wednesday at 4 pm, but we’ll see plenty more action before then.
It’s essential to keep in mind that as exciting as the NFL offseason is, positive fantasy results do not always follow from players changing teams. For example, in 2021, some of the biggest wide receivers to change teams were Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Corey Davis, Julio Jones (trade), A.J. Green, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Marvin Jones, Curtis Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Breshad Perriman, and Tyrell Williams. In fact, the receiver signing that arguably made the biggest impact turned out to be a running back signing--the Falcons’ addition of Cordarrelle Patterson. To that point, last year’s running back class did have some wins: Patterson and James Conner, most notably. But there were also plenty of flops, including Mike Davis, Kenyan Drake, Damien Williams, Jamaal Williams, Tevin Coleman, Malcolm Brown, Giovani Bernard, Phillip Lindsay, and Mark Ingram‘s stint with the Texans. Trades and free agency signings are exciting, but there’s always plenty more chaos around the corner in the NFL.
Then again, we’ve seen players have impressive year-one fantasy impacts on a new team in recent years, including Tom Brady (obviously), Ryan Tannehill, Robby Anderson, Robert Woods, Stefon Diggs (trade), and DeAndre Hopkins (trade). 2022’s free agent class is likely to have a low hit rate, as usual, but a fantasy league winner could be lurking in these signings.
Below is my analysis of quarterback and skill player trades and signings with potential for significant fantasy implications in 2022.
Tom Brady Unretires
I don’t plan to cover players returning to their previous teams in this article, but I have you covered on Tom Brady’s return to the Buccaneers.
Russell Wilson to the Broncos
Davante Adams to the Raiders
I cover this trade in detail in its own article.
Deshaun Watson to the Browns
Patrick Daugherty examines the complicated fallout from Watson’s trade to Cleveland.
Amari Cooper to the Browns
In 2019, the Cowboys chose to pay Ezekiel Elliott huge money rather than let their fourth-year running back hold out. That $90 million contract is still reverberating through Dallas, to the point that the Cowboys accepted fifth and seventh-round picks from the Brown in exchange for Cooper and a sixth-round pick. As little as that is, it’s still better than nothing... which is what the Cowboys would have gotten when they cut Cooper rather than pay him the $20 million he is due in 2022. And that’s really that this trade was--the Cowboys did not believe that Cooper is worth $20 million a year; the Browns believed that signing Cooper to a new deal would be less advantageous than his current structure of three years / $20 million, with zero guaranteed money.
The Browns have a few points in their favor. Cooper wasn’t incredible in 2021, but he delivered an acceptable 1.63 yards per route run. And he led the Cowboys in routes per dropback, operating as their WR1. Entering his age-28 season, Cooper should have no problem taking on that role in Cleveland. Having released Jarvis Landry, the Browns will almost certainly feature Cooper in the passing game.
The Cowboys have some legitimate reasons for moving on, though. Cooper’s 1.63 YPRR isn’t terrible, but it’s his lowest mark since 2017. His 8.5 yards per target is also not bad but is also his lowest since 2017. And Cooper struggled to earn targets, with a target on 19.1% of his routes, the lowest mark of his career.
Cooper’s target competition is about to drop considerably, but he’s also moving from a pass-first offense to a run-heavy one and seeing a substantial decrease in quarterback play. Baker Mayfield‘s quarterback play was particularly bad in 2021. Jarvis Landry managed 2.04 YPRR in back-to-back seasons in 2019-20 but fell off to 1.78 last year. Odell Beckham fell off from 1.79 YPRR in 2020 to 1.34 and forced his way out of Cleveland. Even if Mayfield bounces back, he is still a significant downgrade from Dak Prescott.
The key question for Cooper is, will his role be closer to Landry’s or Beckham’s? Landry had an average depth of target of 10.5 in 2019, 7.9 in 2020, and 8.4 in 2021. He was primarily an underneath option. Beckham had a 13.6 aDOT in 2019, 14.1 in 2020, and 13.3 in 2021. He was primarily a deep threat. Cooper had a Beckham-esque 13.0 aDOT in 2019 but dropped to a Landry-esque 9.5 in 2020. In 2021, he was in the middle at 11.9.
Given that Donovan Peoples-Jones is the Browns’ other starting outside wide receiver, and he is a pure field stretcher, it seems likely that Cooper will be tasked with a fair amount of Landry’s previous chain-moving role. Landry has played at least 55% of his snaps from the slot in all eight seasons of his career, while Cooper has never played more than 28% of his snaps from the slot, so Cooper won’t literally play Landry’s old role. Still, he could have a similar function in the offense, potentially with more downfield upside. If that is the case, he should see a spike in his target rate, which can help make up for moving to a lower volume and less efficient passing offense.
In a possession+ role, Cooper profiles as a top-30 wide receiver. And if Baker Mayfield bounces back from his injury-plagued 2021, Cooper has upside to finish top-20 (as Landry did in 2019). However, if the Browns add a reliable slot option and task Cooper with operating in Beckham’s old role, it could be a rough season.
In Dallas, the Cowboys now have no choice but to install CeeDee Lamb as the focal point of their passing game. With Cedrick Wilson now in Miami, Lamb should have an every-down role in both the slot and on the outside. Michael Gallup will operate as the “X” wide receiver once recovered from his ACL tear. In the meantime, Dalton Schultz will soak up additional targets. The Cowboys are also likely to be considering a wide receiver in a deep rookie class.
Chase Edmonds to the Dolphins
The Dolphins signed Edmonds to a two-year $12.6 million deal and are expected to install him as their lead running back. Edmonds turns 26 in April, and the Cardinals didn’t use him heavily in his four-year tenure, so he should have plenty left in the tank.
Edmonds is generally thought of as a pass-catching specialist, but his 1.17 career yards per route run is not overly impressive. He was at 1.16 (RB22) in 2021 and peaked at 1.32 (RB12) in 2020. There’s no doubt that Edmonds is a capable receiver, but he’s yet to show that he’s a difference-maker. Edmonds was actually more impressive in 2020 as a breakaway rusher. He finished RB14 in Pro Football Focus’ breakaway percentage in 2021 and was solid in 2020 as well, finishing RB25.
Edmonds profiles as a classic Shanahan-style committee back in Miami--undersized but with receiving ability and burst. Given Mike McDaniel‘s repeated emphasis on improving the Dolphins’ run game, Edmonds’ landing spot should significantly boost his fantasy ADP.
Edmonds profiles as a classic “dead zone” bet for fantasy purposes. It will be difficult not to project him for a valuable workload, but he has a few things working against him. The Dolphins ranked 30th in PFF’s run grades in 2021 and 30th in adjusted line yards. The Dolphins also ranked 32nd in pass blocking grade. Blocking has been a major issue in Miami, and unless they fix the offensive line this offseason, it will hold back the entire offense, not just the run game.
Edmonds is also likely to face additional competition. Although the rookie running back class isn’t very deep this year, the Dolphins could easily spend a second or third-round pick or one of their two fourth-round picks on a running back. They may also bring back Duke Johnson or add another running back in free agency. Edmonds is now the favorite to lead the Dolphins in fantasy points at the running back position. But it could be a bumpy ride unless the Dolphins’ offense improves more than expected.
Back in Arizona, James Conner signed a three-year contract worth up to $25.5 million. He can be expected to operate as the Cardinals feature back in 2022 and projects as a volume-based RB2. Coming off an 18 TD season, it’s hard to doubt Conner’s ceiling. His floor remains shaky, though. Conner will play this season at 27 years old and has had issues staying healthy for several seasons, including last year. The Cardinals will likely bring in another back to spell him. Whoever they add will have late-round appeal as a contingency bet.
Mitchell Trubisky to the Steelers
The Steelers signed Trubisky to a two-year deal and appear set to install him as their 2022 starter. Trubisky was widely expected to land with the Giants to compete for a starting job, but the Steelers stepped up brought him in instead. The Steelers have been open about their desire for more mobility at the quarterback position, and Trubisky can deliver in that regard.
Trubisky spent last year backing up Josh Allen, and hopefully, he developed as a passer in that environment because he was not good in 2020. Trubisky showed unimpressive efficiency, finishing QB23 in EPA per play, behind Ben Roethlisberger and Teddy Bridgewater. He was better in terms of accuracy, finishing 19th. However, he was still behind Nick Foles and Lamar Jackson. And Trubisky was scary bad in 2019, finishing 33rd in EPA per play and 29th in CPOE.
Trubisky did show promise in 2018, at least. He finished ninth in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. It is unlikely to be a coincidence that 2018 was the year that the Bears properly utilized Trubisky as a rushing threat. Trubisky rushed 68 times for 421 yards in 14 games in 2018. He didn’t top 200 yards in either of his two remaining seasons in Chicago. If the Steelers play to Trubisky’s strengths, he offers late-round quarterback appeal and could play efficiently enough to support Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Although, more realistically, just one.
Claypool looks to be the better fit with Trubisky’s skillset. Allen Robinson was Trubisky’s top target in all three of his Bears seasons; at Trubisky’s 2018 peak, Robinson had a 12.7 aDOT and delivered 1.82 YPRR. Chase Claypool struggled last year with 1.67 YPRR but had an impressive 1.90 YPRR as a rookie. He profiles as a similar big-bodied downfield weapon to Robinson, with a 12.0 aDOT in 2021 and a 13.6 aDOT in 2020. However, Johnson has been a better receiver than Claypool and could continue to outproduce him. He had 1.83 YPRR in 2021 and 1.78 in 2020, and his shallow aDOTs of 9.0 and 8.8 may say more about Roethlisberger than Johnson, who showed some downfield ability in college. Ultimately, Trubisky most likely makes the Steelers wide receivers an either/or proposition, with both having a chance to emerge as the clear top option.
Trubisky makes a lot of sense for the Steelers as a bridge quarterback. The Steelers have been rumored to be interested in drafting a rookie, particularly Malik Willis. Signing Trubisky would fit well with that plan. But a rookie quarterback, especially a raw one like Willis, also makes multiple investments in the Steelers passing game difficult to justify in fantasy.
Najee Harris comes out of this as a small winner. Certainly, things could be much better. Even if the Steelers had traded for Jimmy Garoppolo, his outlook would be much stronger. A check-down quarterback like Garoppolo would have opened up enormous PPR upside for Harris, whereas the mobile Trubisky could limit his receiving role. But things could also be much worse (Jordan Love looms). Trubisky, along with the potential for a rookie in the wings, offers Harris a decent possibility of functional offense, which is all he really needs to deliver in a true workhorse role.
Christian Kirk to the Jaguars
The Jaguars are bringing in Kirk on a mind-melting deal four-year deal that could be worth up to $84 million. He will operate as the Jaguars’ new No. 1 wide receiver.
That maximum value of $21M per year makes Christian Kirk the 3rd highest paid WR in the NFL. https://t.co/z7wFlz9SEL
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 14, 2022
A former second-round pick by the Cardinals, Kirk was primarily an outside wide receiver to start his career, playing at least 55% of his snaps out-wide in each of his first three seasons. He flashed as a rookie with 1.72 YPRR but fell off in 2019 (1.41) and again in 2020 (1.21). In 2021, Kirk transitioned to the slot, playing 78% of his snaps there. He delivered a career-high 1.80 YPRR with 83 receptions for 1,035 yards and five TDs on 112 targets (including the Wild Card round). Having made an eye-popping commitment to Kirk, it would be bizarre if the Jaguars did not play him in the slot, where he has been at his best.
To Kirk’s credit, he doesn’t need to operate exclusively in the slot. Like a better version of Nelson Agholor in Pederson’s system, he can play both inside and out. Kirk averaged 1.80 YPRR in the slot in 2021 and 1.78 YPRR on his remaining routes. Kirk should man the slot in 3WR sets, but he doesn’t need to come off the field. Kirk could operate in a similar role as Golden Tate did down the stretch for the Eagles in 2018 when he had 1.93 YPRR.
This signing is not great news for Laviska Shenault, who has played 44% of his snaps in the slot since the Jaguars selected him in the second round in 2020. A new starting slot receiver makes sense because Shenault has not been efficient, averaging just 1.42 YPRR from the slot since entering the league. Contrary to public perception, Shenault has been slightly better when not in the slot, averaging 1.47 YPRR. Still, he has not been great regardless of deployment, and Kirk’s signing creates a major squeeze on routes. Marvin Jones is a more natural fit to play outside in 2WR sets, which will likely leave Shenault playing outside in 3WR sets only, or splitting time with Jones, cannibalizing both players’ production.
Kirk looks like the only trustworthy receiving option in Jacksonville now that the Jaguars literally cannot afford him to leave the field. He will be seeing a major downgrade in quarterback play, Kirk projects as a volume-based WR4.
Kirk’s signing is arguably a loss for Trevor Lawrence. With the Jaguars betting big on Kirk, it seems less likely that the Jaguars will prioritize a wide receiver in the draft. And picking at 33, the Jaguars will likely pass on a strong wide receiver option if they ignore the position.
Kirk is a quality starting wide receiver, but he has yet to be a difference-maker in four seasons. He and Lawrence could blossom together, but it seems more likely that he will continue to be a solid starter, with the Jaguars paying him like a superstar.
Cedrick Wilson to the Dolphins
The Dolphins are bringing in Wilson on a three-year, $22.8 million contract to operate as their starting slot receiver. The Cowboys selected Wilson in the sixth round of the 2018 draft, and he was a reserve player for his first three seasons. Wilson had a mini-breakout in 2021, producing a 50-664-6 line on 71 targets, including the playoff.
Wilson played 90% of his snaps in the slot and typically left the field in 2WR sets. He was fairly efficient in that role with 1.70 YPRR. However, he’ll now see a downgrade in quarterback play while still facing difficult target competition. Wilson profiles as a late-round dart throw in the mold of Braxton Berrios.
Wilson’s addition could actually be an excellent sign for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle played 60% of his snaps in the slot and had an impressive rookie season with 1.75 YPRR. But Waddle only had 1.40 YPRR in the slot. The slot was his primary deployment... but Waddle was far better when not in the slot with 2.31 YPRR.
Mike McDaniel undoubtedly plans to move Waddle around the formation and is likely to continue using him in the slot to an extent. But Wilson’s presence is an indication that Waddle will see most of his work on the outside. As a result, Waddle’s aDOT could increase substantially from 2021’s 7.0, which would dent his PPR floor, but improve his odds of hitting a game-changing ceiling.
Wilson’s signing is also good news for Tua Tagovailoa, who will now have a reliable slot option while Waddle deploys on what are likely to be deeper routes, on average. The new 3WR set should help Tagovailoa push the ball downfield at a higher rate, giving him upside for a genuine breakout in 2022--provided the Dolphins can fix their pass protection, which PFF graded 32nd in 2021.
Evan Engram to the Jaguars
The Jaguars weren’t done spending after signing Kirk, inking Evan Engram to a one-year, fully guaranteed $9 million contract.
Engram has been legitimately bad for two seasons with a YPRR of 1.09 since 2020. But in Engram’s defense, he was tragically misused by Jason-Witten-enthusiast Jason Garrett. Engram posted a career-high 722 yards as a rookie with an aDOT of 9.0. His aDOT has been at 7.4 or lower in the four seasons since. This makes sense as a prove-it deal signing; Engram could have more to offer than what he’s shown thus far.
And Jacksonville looks like a strong landing spot for Engram, given that Doug Pederson‘s system can support a pass-catching tight end. From 2016-19, Zach Ertz averaged 1.84 YPRR and had an aDOT of 8.3. Of course, the wheels fell off in 2020, but that was true for the entire Eagles offense. Ertz’s previous success as an intermediate weapon provides some hope for Engram.
Trevor Lawrence has also shown an affinity for targeting the tight end. In 2021, Dan Arnold had an 18.9% target per route run rate, and James O’Shaughnessy was at 18.5%. Engram was at just 14.6%. If Lawrence continues targeting the tight end at a high rate, Engram could be in for a bounce-back season. He makes for a solid best ball pick in the double-digit rounds.
Engram is entering his age-28 season, but he wouldn’t be the first tight end to show an additional gear late in his career. He could follow in the footsteps of Eric Ebron and Jared Cook and provide usable fantasy production on his second contract.
C.J. Uzomah to the Jets
Uzomah signed a three-year, $24 million deal with the Jets to become their starting tight end.
The Jets are installing Uzomah like he’s an established veteran, which he is, in a way. He’s 29 years old and has played 10+ games for the Bengals in five of the seven years since the Bengals selected him in the fifth round of the 2016 draft; he’s played 14+ games in four of seven years. Last year he set career highs in the regular season in targets (63), receptions (49), yards (493), and TDs (5). It was a career year for a reliable starter, and the Jets are betting on that success to continue in New York.
However, including the playoffs (when he was more efficient than the regular season), Uzomah had just 1.12 YPRR in 2021. Among the 25 tight ends with 50+ targets, that ranked 23rd ahead of only Evan Engram and Cameron Brate. He ranked behind Tyler Conklin, 34-year-old Jared Cook, and Austin Hooper. But like Engram, he now has a chance to earn more opportunity with his new team. Unlike Engram, there’s no legitimate argument that his overall situation has improved. Uzomah will see a huge decrease in target quality. And while his target competition is definitely less fierce than in Cincinnati, he could still have a tough time pulling targets from a solid 3WR set of Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Braxton Berrios.
Uzomah profiles as a product of his environment. That environment was the Super Bowl-bound Bengals in 2021; he’s now a Jet. As a starting tight end, Uzomah is draftable in best ball, but he should and likely will fall to the last rounds of drafts.
Zay Jones to the Jaguars
The Jaguars appear to be in the midst of an avant-garde comedy bit, signing Zay Jones to a three-year, $24 million contract that could total up to $30 million with incentives.
The Bills selected Jones in the second round of the 2017 draft, but Jones washed out of Buffalo halfway into the third year of his rookie deal. He landed with the Raiders and in 2021, emerged as a deep threat following Henry Ruggs’ release. Jones handled helped stretch the defense but his play was not impressive. His 1.35 YPRR was both the highest mark of his career and in line with the Jaguars’ in-house options Laviska Shenault (1.36) and Marvin Jones (1.33).
Jones could ultimately be a better fit for Pederson’s system than the receivers Jacksonville already had cheaply under contract, but there’s little evidence of that. In 2021, Jones played with Derek Carr, while the Jaguars’ receivers saw targets from a highly inefficient Trevor Lawrence. Carr supported five players who ran 100+ routes and delivered with a YPRR of 1.7 or better: DeSean Jackson, Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, Kenyan Drake, and Darren Waller. Among all Jaguars who saw even a single target in 2021, not one hit 1.7 YRR. Dan Arnold (1.61) and Laquon Treadwell (1.52) were the only players to best 1.4.
Certainly, the Jaguars cannot be blamed for adding weaponry and competition to a passing game that produced such inefficient results. How they’re doing it raises major questions.
Jones should be viewed as a favorite to start in 2WR sets, given his new contract. Still, he remains a last-round dart throw until the Jaguars show full commitment to the bit and pass on selecting a Day 2 wide receiver.
D.J. Chark to the Lions
The Lions signed Chark to a one-year $10 million deal worth up to $12 million. In an environment where his former team is handing out three-year contracts seemingly at random, Chark could only land a prove-it deal with Jared Goff as his partner in proving it. It’s a tough scene.
Denny Carter sums up the situation best.
horrific fit all around. goff threw deep on 9 percent of his attempts last year, sixth lowest in the league. and detroit was super run heavy when they could be. gross. https://t.co/KcAyOTkIO8
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) March 15, 2022
Chark will have real-life value for the Lions’ offense. He’s a capable deep threat who will stretch the defense, provided Goff looks his way occasionally. But even if Chark had landed in a solid situation, he looked like an uncertain fantasy bet.
Chark posted a 73-1,008-8 line in a 15 game breakout season in 2019 but finished his Jaguars career with just 60-860-7 in 17 games over the next two seasons. Chark averaged 1.47 YPRR over the last two years, showing poor efficiency with reduced production. And concerningly, Chark wasn’t very efficient when things were going well. In his breakout second season, he averaged 1.69 YPRR. It wasn’t a bad showing but indicates that in 2019 he may have been the best of bad options.
Then again, over the last three seasons, the Jaguars’ quarterbacks have been Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, Jake Luton, and rookie Trevor Lawrence. So it’s probably a bit unfair to imply, “are we even sure that Chark is good?” when he’s managed mediocre efficiency with that crew and the coaching to match.
With that in mind, Chark will become vastly more interesting if the Lions take Malik Willis with the second pick of the NFL draft. Chark would pair very well with his jaw-dropping deep ball skills. Besides that, Chark profiles as a late-round dart throw in the mold of Tyrell Williams, 2021. At his best, he’s a better player than Williams. But Chark is also dealing with more target competition that we could project for Williams, with Amon-Ra St. Brown on the rise and a skill set that perfectly suits Goff’s underneath route proclivities.
J.D. McKissic to the Bills
McKissic signed a two-year $7 million contract with the Bills and will serve as their pass-catching back in 2022.
McKissic was a startable PPR back in Washington, stemming from real-life value. With 1.47 YPRR, he ranked fifth among running backs with 20+ targets. Only Christian McCaffrey, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tony Pollard, and Brandon Bolden were more efficient. He was similarly efficient in 2020 with 1.40 YPRR.
While the Bills are an exciting offense, they are not an ideal landing spot for McKissic. McKissic averaged 5.7 targets per game in 2020-21. The Bills’ entire backfield combined for 5.4 targets per game in 2021 and just 4.6 targets per game in 2020. Josh Allen looks to push the ball downfield, has capable middle-of-the-field check-down options, and is an excellent scrambler. As a result, the Bills offense hasn’t relied on check-down passes to running backs.
Still, McKissic could have some usable fantasy value. He’s seen 17.5% of his targets from the slot since 2020. The Bills may flex McKissic into the slot at times to create de facto 4WR sets. McKissic also saw 12.5% of his targets on screens with Washington, and the Bills could also plan to utilize him in the screen game. McKissic should be worth a flyer in the mid-late double-digit rounds.
Devin Singletary‘s value takes a hit with this news. He developed into a high-end RB2 in fantasy to close the season, but a complete capture of backfield snaps drove his production. Singletary had 80%+ snaps in five of his final seven games, including a 100% snap share in the Bills’ playoff loss to the Chiefs. McKissic never had less than a 36% snap share with Washington. His previous running mate Antonio Gibson didn’t have a snap share above 69% in his career until after McKissic was injured last season. Singletary now looks like a 1A in a low-value backfield, turning him into a late single-digit round pick.
Speaking of Gibson, this signing creates a path to additional receiving upside in 2022. With McKissic out of the lineup, Gibson played 70%+ snaps in 3-of-5 games to close the season. And he had a target share of 14%+ in 4-of-5 games. Before Week 13 of 2021, Gibson had hit a 14% target share just four times in his entire career.
However, there’s an important reason not to be overly excited about Gibson’s receiving prospects: he hasn’t been great as an NFL receiver. Despite playing wide receiver in college, Gibson hasn’t stood out in the receiving game as a pro. He had 1.19 YPRR in 2021, which ranked RB33 among backs with 20+ targets. He was similarly efficient in 2020 with 1.24 YPRR. To be fair, Gibson hasn’t been bad. In 2021, he ranked just behind Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams in YPRR and just ahead of Josh Jacobs and Alexander Mattison. But it’s important to note that although Gibson has been a capable receiver so far, he has not flashed elite receiving skills. If Washington does not add a receiving back this offseason, Gibson has the potential to operate as a true three-down workhorse. However, if the Commanders signal that they plan to use another back other than Gibson in the passing game, we should believe them.
Russell Gage to the Buccaneers
Gage signed a three-year $30 million deal with his former franchise rival and should be a starter in 2WR sets for any games that Chris Godwin misses to begin the season.
Gage is coming off an impressive season with 1.96 YPRR. It is by far the best of his career, excluding an efficient showing as a rookie on just 32 routes. In 2019-20, Gage operated primarily as a slot receiver, playing 67% of his snaps there in 2019 and 68% in 2020. But in 2021, the Falcons played him at multiple spots, and he logged only 50% of his snaps in the slot. Gage benefitted enormously from the opportunity. He produced just 1.60 YPRR in the slot in 2021 but a very impressive 2.31 YPRR on non-slot routes. Gage won’t have the opportunity to soak up target volume in Tampa Bay as he did on the post-Ridley Falcons, but his 2021 still showed promise.
In Tampa Bay, Tom Brady will be happy to have Ridley’s versatility. While covering Brady’s unretirement, I noted that Tyler Johnson has not played well for the Buccaneers. Gage should immediately jump him on the depth chart and can operate in 2WR sets or play in the slot for any games that Chris Godwin misses. He can also line up outside in 3WR sets once Godwin is healthy. When the Buccaneers are at full strength, he’ll likely have a route rate around 65-70%, providing more real-life value than fantasy value. However, Gage could be a useful best ball selection, providing some early season spike weeks.
D’Onta Foreman to the Panthers
Foreman signed a one-year $2 million deal with the Panthers that probably won’t make a fantasy impact... unless Christian McCaffrey is traded.
Foreman started 2021 without a team but was signed by the Titans in the wake of Derrick Henry‘s foot injury. He was a capable replacement, finishing RB26 in NFL Next Gen’s rush yards over expected per attempt. Fittingly, he was just behind Derrick Henry in the metric and ahead of notable names like McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Ezekiel Elliott, and Najee Harris. Chuba Hubbard finished second to last in RYOE/A, ahead of only Mike Davis. Foreman should be added on waivers where possible in anticipation of McCaffrey being dealt this week.
Rashard Higgins to the Panthers
The Panthers signed Higgins to a one-year deal. Higgins will likely be a reserve for the Panthers, but this move puts additional pressure on second-year wide receiver Terrace Marshall.
Higgins is versatile. He played 94% of his snaps in the slot in 2017, earning 46 targets; he played 81% of his snaps out-wide in 2020, earning 61 targets. Last season, he played 42% of his snaps in the slot and 58% out-wide. With a career YPRR of just 1.21, Higgins is not a stellar talent, but he can move around the formation.
Terrace Marshall played 61% of his snaps in the slot in 2021, and the addition of a receiver who can comfortably play there is not ideal. Marshall had just 0.50 YPRR on 277 routes as a rookie. It was a catastrophic J.J. Arcega-Whiteside level debut. The Eagles’ second-rounder ran more routes (312)... but was actually slightly more efficient (0.54 YPRR).
However, if you believe that Marshall can bounce back, the addition of Higgins shouldn’t shake you off that position. After all, it could be a lot worse. Jarvis Landry, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jamison Crowder would all be much harder for Marshall to beat out for snaps than Higgins. Even Cole Beasley or Sammy Watkins would make things more difficult.
Brandon Bolden to the Raiders
The Raiders signed Brandon Bolden, a 32-year-old running back and special teams whiz. The Raider may have signed Bolden purely for depth and special teams ability. But it’s worth noting that Bolden played very well as a receiving back in 2021.
Among running backs with 40+ targets, only Christian McCaffrey (2.91), Cordarrelle Patterson (2.47), and Tony Pollard (1.90) finished with a higher YPRR than Bolden (1.89). Of course, much of his success was simply role-related. James White had 2.47 YPRR before going down with an injury. Bolden isn’t a star receiving back; he’s a capable receiver in a system that heavily incorporates passes to the running back. But... the Raiders are going to be running that same system.
Josh Jacobs doesn’t embarrass himself in the passing game, but with 1.19 YPPR in 2021, he literally finished one spot ahead of Damien Harris (1.16). Jacobs has been cast as an early-down back for most of his career. Bolden’s signing could signal that the Raiders plan to use him like the Patriots have used Harris and Sony Michel.
Kenyan Drake had an impressive 1.71 YPRR in 2021 and restructured his contract to stay with the team. He will be first up for passing-down duties. But if he goes down, Jacobs now looks less likely to inherit a three-down role.
Dare Ogunbowale to the Texans
The Texans signed Ogunbowale to a two-year, $3.3 million deal. Ogunbowale is a passing-down specialist but an inefficient one. He has run at least 100 routes in each of the last three seasons but has a very poor career YPRR of 1.00. Ogunbowale further damages what little value there was in the Texans backfield.
O.J. Howard to the Bills
The Bills signed Howard to a one-year prove-it deal worth $3.5 million. Howard tore his Achillies in 2020 and didn’t look right in 2021, averaging just 0.92 YPRR. His signing is still a bad sign for Dawson Knox.
Knox ran an average of 35 routes per game in 2021, which is off-the-charts opportunity for a tight end. He wasn’t quite at Travis Kelce‘s level (39), but he was still far above superior talents like Kyle Pitts (30), George Kittle (27), and Dallas Goedert (25). Knox was in the rare position of playing in a pass-heavy, voluminous offense while also soaking up the vast majority of tight end routes. That combination will lead to fantasy production... but it’s also a fragile position for a non-elite talent.
Knox had just 1.20 YPRR in 2021, which is both concerningly inefficient and his career-high. Even if Howard isn’t back to his pre-injury form, he logged 9.9 routes per game in 2021 and could meaningfully cut into Knox’s workload. And, because Knox has never been efficient, he’s unlikely to provide consistent fantasy value with a route rate of 65-70%. Instead, he needs to be near the 82% rate he posted in 2021. Knox now looks likely to be a TD-or-bust option in most weeks, provided Howard is healthy enough to earn significant rotational snaps.
Tyler Conklin to the Jets
I was fairly pessimistic on C.J. Uzomah in my write-up of his contract with the Jets. With the signing of Tyler Conklin to a three-year $21 million deal, I’m now out entirely. Conklin, like Uzomah, is a capable real-life player. But neither is a receiving specialist, and both will be dealing with solid target competition from Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Braxton Berrios. Speaking of Berrios, his re-signing indicates that the Jets plan to operate fairly frequently out of 3WR sets. So while the signing of Uzomah and Conklin is a signal that 2TE sets will be on the menu, there should be plenty of downs when either Uzomah or Conklin is on the bench.
Raheem Mostert to the Dolphins
The Dolphins signed Mostert to a one-year $3.1 million deal. Mostert is entering his age-30 season and is coming off a season-ending knee cartilage injury, making him a risky bet in 2022. But Mostert has also been excellent when on the field in recent years, and the Dolphins landed him on a one-year low-risk deal.
Mostert has said he expects a similar role to what he had with the 49ers, which would make him an early-down committee back. Mostert will be playing behind what was arguably the worst offensive line in football in 2021, but he’ll also be playing in a familiar system and for a coach who trusts him. As a result, he looks like a strong selection in the early double-digit rounds but risky if his ADP creeps up beyond that.
Chase Edmonds’ role in the offense now looks capped, but that can’t be seen as a huge surprise, given his resume. And, arguably, Mostert’s signing is good news for Edmonds. It now looks far less likely that the Dolphins will use a Day 2 pick on a running back. This rookie class has strong Day 2 options in Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Isaiah Spiller, and Rachaad White. But unless one of those backs fall (most likely White), the Day 3 options aren’t inspiring. The Dolphins may view their backfield as set, allowing them to use the draft to fill other needs.
Mostert’s signing caps Edmonds ceiling to an extent, but it also signals that the floor is less likely to fall out completely post-draft.
Ricky Seals-Jones to the Giants
The Giants signed Ricky-Seals Jones, and he has the tight end room nearly to himself with Evan Engram now in Jacksonville and Kyle Rudolph a free agent. His competition for snaps and routes is now Jake Hausmann, Chris Myarick, and Rysen John.
Seals-Jones has typically been a rotational tight end and has a career 1.17 YPRR to match. On the other hand, he’s been nearly as efficient in his career as Dawson Knox was in his 2021 career peak, and he now joins the same offensive system.
That system won’t include Josh Allen, which isn’t exactly a minor detail. Instead, it will be run by Daniel Jones, who never established a connection with Evan Engram. Seals-Jones will most likely be well off the fantasy radar in 2022.
However, tight end is barren enough to make Seals-Jones viable as a last-round pick. Seals-Jones had a five-game stretch in 2021 when he ran at least 30 routes in each game. He finished with 19 receptions for 181 yards and one TD on 28 targets. That level of production was both yawn-inducing and would have been enough for a TE15 finish if he kept it up for 17 games. He has a good chance to consolidate snaps in New York.
Ty Montgomery to the Patriots
The Patriots signed Montgomery to a two-year deal worth up to $4 million. Montgomery is 29 years old but should have enough left in the tank to serve as a reserve receiving specialist.
In combination with the re-signing of James White, Montgomery’s addition raises serious doubt that the Patriots plan to install Rhamondre Stevenson in a big receiving back role. Instead, he will likely form a one-two punch with Damien Harris on early downs. Both Harris and Stevenson are talented runners, and both should have their moments. But a three-way committee will make both rushers harder to rely on.
Then again, we shouldn’t completely rule out the idea that Stevenson wins passing-down duties. Montgomery had just 0.54 YPRR in 2021; Stevenson had 1.62, higher than Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, and Austin Ekeler. Moreover, Montgomery played extensively on special teams in 2021, and his signing could simply be a replacement for Brandon Bolden. Bolden, of course, played on passing downs in 2021, but Montgomery won’t have Bill Belichick‘s trust the way that Bolden did.
Stevenson’s biggest competition looks to be White, who has been reliable and efficient as a pass-catcher in New England. White is entering his age-30 season, however. He should be expected to handle receiving downs to begin the year, but he may cede snaps to Stevenson as the season progresses.
Hayden Hurst to the Bengals
The Bengals signed Hurst to a one-year contract; with C.J. Uzomah now in New York, Hurst suddenly looks fantasy relevant.
Hurst has a career 1.21 YPRR and is coming off marks of 1.08 and 1.00 in his last two seasons. But the bar is low. He’s replacing Uzomah, who had 1.12 YPRR with the Bengals last season, including the playoffs. Hurst profiles as a product of his environment, but that environment looks plenty capable of producing a top 20 tight end season from a reliable veteran.
Allen Robinson to the Rams
The Rams signed Robinson to a three-year $46.5 million contract, otherwise known as “we don’t think you’re washed” money.
Robinson will play primarily on the outside, but like Odell Beckham, he can mix into the slot. Beckham played 21% of his Rams snaps in the slot, and Robinson has played 28% of his career snaps from the slot. Robinson’s versatility will allow the Rams to continue moving Cooper Kupp around the formation.
Robinson should also be a good fit for the role that Beckham was playing for the final four games of 2021. When Beckham first joined Los Angeles, he was operating as a deep threat, with an aDOT of 13.9. He was primarily an intermediate option in his final four games, with an aDOT of 11.0.
Robinson has operated as an intermediate option for each of the last four seasons, with aDOTs of 12.5, 10.1, 11.7, and 12.7. Robinson looks like a great fit for the late-season Beckham role, provided he can bounce back from an abysmal 2021.
In 2020, Robinson had 2.05 YPRR, and his situation looked to be improving, with talented rookie Justin Fields taking over at quarterback. But Robinson turned in a nauseating 1.13 YPRR in 2021, which is bad enough to raise questions about how much the 29-year-old (in August) has left in the tank. But even coming off a putrid season, it’s hard not to be excited about what Robinson can do in a Sean McVay offense.
Robinson will likely be replacing not just Beckham but Robert Woods, who appears likely to be traded this offseason. Before injury, Woods had a shallow 8.7 aDOT in 2021, which was similar to his role in 2019-20.
If Woods does play for the Rams in 2022, his shallow routes will probably necessitate deeper routes from Robinson. With a 3WR set of Kupp, Robinson, and Woods, we could see Robinson operating in the big-bodied deep threat role he played in Jacksonville, with aDOTs of 13.7 and 16.0. This usage would make Robinson a less reliable PPR receiver but provide access to some big spike weeks.
Those days are probably behind Robinson, however. It’s more likely that the Rams move on from Woods and continue using Van Jefferson or another wide receiver to stretch the field on the outside and use Robinson as a possession receiver.
Jefferson had a 14.6 aDOT in 2021. This was odd usage for a wide receiver who is not particularly fast but shows that the Rams understand the value of stretching the defense. We could see more routes from Tutu Atwell, the Rams 2021 second-round pick, as a field stretcher in 2022. He’s certainly fast enough to do it, running a 4.39 at his pro day. But Atwell may be too small to play outside, and 5'9", 155, and is recovering from a season-ending shoulder injury in 2021.
Counterintuitively, Robinson will likely be better off if the Rams draft a wide receiver than if they stand pat, as long as that receiver is a downfield specialist. For example, Jalen Tolbert at pick 104 (the Rams’ earliest pick) would help ensure that Robinson is dealing with minimal defensive attention in 2022.
