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The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 5

Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins

Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

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“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-4. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR Points

Context

Davante Adams

WR1 (32.1)

WR1 (41.6)

Removed Weeks 2-4 (hamstring).

Amari Cooper

WR2 (20.3)

WR4 (20.8)

Aided by crazy game scripts but NFL target leader.

Keenan Allen

WR3 (20.0)

WR16 (17.7)

1st in target share (36%). 22 xFPs P/G with Herbert.

Calvin Ridley

WR4 (19.6)

WR5 (20.1)

Week 4 dud on bad leg vs. CB Alexander.

Julio Jones

WR5 (19.3)

WR25 (16.0)

Removed Weeks 2-4 (hamstring). Rest up.

DeAndre Hopkins

WR6 (18.3)

WR2 (21.2)

19.8 xFPs in 3 healthy games.

Jamison Crowder

WR7 (17.7)

WR3 (21.0)

19.7 & 15.7 xFPs in healthy games. PPR WR2.

Allen Robinson

WR8 (17.2)

WR17 (17.5)

1 of 5 WRs averaging 10 targets & 100 air yards.

Diontae Johnson

WR9 (17.0)

WR19 (17.5)

Removed Week 3. First 2 were very promising.

Terry McLaurin

WR10 (15.9)

WR14 (17.8)

The WR1/2 usage we loved on the Rotoworld Pod.

Stefon Diggs

WR11 (15.4)

WR7 (19.6)

Efficient on WR2 usage. Schedule hardens next.

Russell Gage

WR12 (15.0)

WR34 (13.7)

Removed Week 3. WR2/3 if Julio misses.

Tyler Lockett

WR13 (14.4)

WR6 (20.0)

Production is less tied to deep ball compared to DK.

Robby Anderson

WR14 (14.4)

WR12 (17.9)

Possession WR (9.1 aDOT) on WR2 usage.

Kenny Golladay

WR15 (14.3)

WR21 (17.0)

WR2 usage on 29% air yards share.

Darius Slayton

WR16 (14.3)

WR37 (12.7)

Buy low after PIT, CHI, SF, LAR start. Volatile WR3.

Tyler Boyd

WR17 (14.2)

WR22 (16.6)

All 34 targets within 20 yards of line of scrimmage.

A.J. Green

WR18 (14.0)

WR91 (6.5)

Worst WR in xFPs over expected P/G (-7.6). WR4/5.

Tee Higgins

WR19 (13.8)

WR35 (13.5)

Removed Week 1. Similar usage as dusty AJG.

Odell Beckham

WR20 (13.6)

WR15 (17.7)

Volatile WR2/3. 14.5 aDOT & 41% air yards share.

Julian Edelman

WR21 (13.6)

WR40 (12.4)

Looks to be at 80%. Needs Cam to be a WR2/3.

N’Keal Harry

WR22 (13.6)

WR56 (10.2)

Inefficient, slow, red zone reliant WR4 with Cam.

D.J. Moore

WR23 (13.6)

WR43 (11.7)

Fewer easy targets so far. More WR2/3 than WR1/2.

A.J. Brown

WR24 (13.3)

WR66 (8.9)

Titans battling Covid-19 breakout.

Tyreek Hill

WR25 (13.3)

WR9 (18.8)

Efficiency outlier. Booms coming vs. easier schedule.

Will Fuller

WR26 (13.2)

WR8 (19.1)

7.3 targets, 94 air yards in 3 healthy games. WR2.

Adam Thielen

WR27 (13.2)

WR11 (18.4)

124 air yards P/G (2nd). 16.4 aDOT means volatile.

Jeff Smith

WR28 (13.1)

WR28 (15.1)

98% Week 4 routes as a starter without Perriman.

CeeDee Lamb

WR29 (12.9)

WR24 (16.3)

Stud on steady, WR3-level usage from the slot.

DeVante Parker

WR30 (12.9)

WR30 (14.5)

WR3 usage despite being banged up. Upside WR2/3.

Sammy Watkins

WR31 (12.8)

WR49 (11.3)

Led KC in targets in 3-of-4 games. Upside WR3.

Chris Godwin

WR32 (12.7)

WR26 (15.7)

Week to week (hamstring). Miller time.

John Brown

WR33 (12.6)

WR27 (15.1)

Efficient on WR3/4 usage with tough schedule coming.

Mike Evans

WR34 (12.2)

WR17 (17.5)

Plays Thursday after rolling ankle Sunday.

Robert Woods

WR35 (12.1)

WR29 (15.1)

LAR 31st in team air yards. Efficient on WR3 usage.

Cole Beasley

WR36 (11.7)

WR39 (12.5)

WR4 usage with tougher schedule coming. 16% targets.

Jerry Jeudy

WR37 (11.6)

WR51 (11.1)

WR4 usage but likely no Hamler, Fant for Week 5.

DK Metcalf

WR38 (11.3)

WR10 (18.6)

Best WR in PPR over expected P/G (+7.3). Upside WR2.

Mike Williams

WR39 (11.3)

WR86 (7.2)

Volatile WR4/5 usage when healthy (hamstring).

Cooper Kupp

WR40 (11.3)

WR22 (16.6)

LAR 31st in team air yards. Efficient on WR3/4 usage.

Brandon Aiyuk

WR41 (11.3)

WR36 (12.9)

Good but WR5 usage with Kittle, Deebo back in lineup.

Adam Humphries

WR42 (11.1)

WR47 (11.5)

Titans battling Covid-19 breakout.

Emmanuel Sanders

WR43 (10.9)

WR52 (11.1)

Thomas close to a return. NO last in team air yards.

Marquise Brown

WR44 (10.8)

WR59 (10.1)

WR5 usage & downfield reliant. Boom-bust flex.

Justin Jefferson

WR45 (10.6)

WR31 (14.2)

Removed Wks 1-2 to reflect new usage as 2-WR starter.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR46 (10.5)

WR20 (17.0)

5.3 aDOT lowers ceiling unless targets go up.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR47 (10.5)

WR60 (9.8)

One-dimensional deep threat. Upside WR4/5.

Greg Ward

WR48 (10.2)

WR62 (9.5)

xFPs: With DeSean healthy (5.7), unhealthy (14.7). Flex.

KJ Hamler

WR49 (10.2)

WR84 (7.3)

Re-injured hamstring Week 4.

Corey Davis

WR50 (10.1)

WR32 (13.9)

Titans battling Covid-19 breakout.

Golden Tate

WR51 (10.0)

WR73 (8.1)

WR5 fantasy usage in horrid offense.

Isaiah Ford

WR52 (10.0)

WR79 (7.5)

70% routes Week 4 as 3-WR slot man. WR5/6 usage.

DeSean Jackson

WR53 (10.0)

WR81 (7.4)

35% of targets more than 20+ air yards. Volatile WR5.

D.J. Chark

WR54 (9.9)

WR13 (17.8)

23% target share (88% routes) in return. Upside WR2/3.

Michael Gallup

WR55 (9.9)

WR45 (11.6)

92% targets near the sideline & 25% downfield. Volatile.

Sterling Shepard

WR56 (9.9)

WR54 (10.7)

One more week on injured reserve (toe).

Chris Hogan

WR57 (9.8)

WR104 (5.2)

Bad & 23-of-23 targets near the sideline.

Zach Pascal

WR58 (9.6)

WR85 (7.2)

xFPs: Weeks 1-3 (7.3), Week 4 (16.6). Flex.

Kendrick Bourne

WR59 (9.5)

WR72 (8.2)

Deebo victim. 3rd WR on heavy 2-WR set offense.

Hunter Renfrow

WR60 (9.5)

WR55 (10.5)

xFPs: With Ruggs (4.5), without (14.4).

Laviska Shenault

WR61 (9.4)

WR46 (11.6)

60% snap share & WR5 usage, but worthy bench hold.

Michael Thomas

WR62 (9.1)

WR109 (4.7)

NO 29th in neutral pass rate through 4 weeks.

Anthony Miller

WR63 (9.1)

WR53 (11.0)

WR5 as long as A-Rob is healthy.

Chris Conley

WR64 (9.1)

WR92 (6.1)

WR5 usage with stone hands.

Keelan Cole

WR65 (9.1)

WR38 (12.6)

WR5 usage as slot WR in run-first offense.

Curtis Samuel

WR66 (8.9)

WR74 (8.1)

13% target share won’t cut it. Droppable.

T.Y. Hilton

WR67 (8.9)

WR82 (7.3)

Old & averaging 7.2 xFPs in the last 3 games.

Tim Patrick

WR68 (8.9)

WR42 (12.2)

No. 2 WR if Hamler is out. Deep ball reliant as a WR5/6.

Preston Williams

WR69 (8.9)

WR103 (5.2)

Target share: Williams (12%), Ford (18%). Droppable.

Henry Ruggs

WR70 (8.7)

WR61 (9.6)

Removed Weeks 2-4 (knee).

Scotty Miller

WR71 (8.6)

WR44 (11.7)

11.6 xFPs with Godwin sidelined Week 4. WR4.

Brandin Cooks

WR72 (8.5)

WR93 (6.0)

93% routes turned into 4.4 xFPs last week. WR5/6.

Dontrelle Inman

WR73 (8.5)

WR69 (8.4)

Danny Amendola

WR74 (8.4)

WR87 (6.9)

8.3 & 4.1 expected FPs in two games with Golladay.

Tre’Quan Smith

WR75 (8.4)

WR50 (11.2)

xFPs: With Thomas (1.3), without (9.1).

Braxton Berrios

WR76 (8.3)

WR48 (11.4)

Christian Kirk

WR77 (8.3)

WR90 (6.6)

10-team droppable. 8.3 expected FPs P/G.

Marvin Jones

WR78 (8.2)

WR77 (8.0)

4.9 & 3.4 expected FPs in two games with Golladay.

James Washington

WR79 (8.2)

WR68 (8.4)

Damiere Byrd

WR80 (8.2)

WR75 (8.0)

Randall Cobb

WR81 (8.0)

WR58 (10.1)

Under 9.0 xFPs in each game.

Darnell Mooney

WR82 (7.8)

WR70 (8.3)

2020 routes: Miller (63%), Mooney (60%).

Jarvis Landry

WR83 (7.7)

WR65 (9.0)

Hurt? Also needs CLE to pass more. No Chubb.

Olamide Zaccheaus

WR84 (6.0)

WR89 (6.7)

13.7 xFPs in Week 4 as relief pitcher.

Mecole Hardman

WR85 (5.5)

WR63 (9.4)

Elite efficiency but battling for snaps, touches. WR5.

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-4. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR Points

Context

George Kittle

TE1 (26.8)

TE1 (40.1)

Removed Week 1 (knee). Value as 2nd-round pick.

Darren Waller

TE2 (17.4)

TE5 (14.9)

28% target share (10 P/G) puts him in top-3 TE mix.

Travis Kelce

TE3 (14.2)

TE2 (16.4)

Elite production despite LAC, BAL, NE recently.

Logan Thomas

TE4 (12.7)

TE24 (7.3)

Totals won’t match usage, which has fallen 3-straight.

Jonnu Smith

TE5 (12.7)

TE3 (16.4)

TE1 if Titans can play & Brown is sidelined.

Evan Engram

TE6 (12.6)

TE23 (7.5)

Usage & easier schedule keep him as low-end TE1.

Zach Ertz

TE7 (12.4)

TE16 (9.7)

Witten-level YAC ability on mid-TE1 usage.

Dalton Schultz

TE8 (12.3)

TE8 (13.0)

Crazy game scripts aided TE1 production. TE1/2.

Mike Gesicki

TE9 (11.8)

TE11 (11.3)

No. 2 TE in aDOT makes him a boom-bust TE1.

Noah Fant

TE10 (11.6)

TE6 (13.2)

Out of Week 5 (ankle). Mid-range TE1 when healthy.

Jimmy Graham

TE11 (11.5)

TE10 (11.4)

2nd on Bears in routes run (74%) as no floor TE2.

Mark Andrews

TE12 (10.5)

TE7 (13.2)

20% target share hurt by blowouts. Volatile TE1.

Hunter Henry

TE13 (10.4)

TE13 (10.6)

Low-end TE1 usage with target tree tightening.

T.J. Hockenson

TE14 (9.4)

TE12 (11.3)

Near full-time role last 2 weeks. TE1/2 usage.

Hayden Hurst

TE15 (9.3)

TE15 (10.3)

12% target share on pass-heavy team. TE1/2.

Jared Cook

TE16 (8.7)

TE20 (8.8)

High-end TE2 when Thomas returns. Needs TDs.

Greg Olsen

TE17 (8.5)

TE22 (8.0)

TD-dependent TE2/3 attached to MVP candidate.

Drew Sample

TE18 (8.2)

TE28 (5.5)

Slow but 10.6 xFPs P/G post Uzomah as TE2 streamer.

Eric Ebron

TE19 (8.2)

TE21 (8.8)

TD-dependent TE2 on 13% target share.

Tyler Eifert

TE20 (7.6)

TE29 (5.4)

Bad team. Old player. Volatile low-end TE2 usage.

O.J. Howard

TE21 (7.6)

TE17 (9.4)

Out for season (Achilles).

Austin Hooper

TE22 (7.5)

TE27 (6.9)

TE2/3 usage. Needs CLE to pass more. No Chubb.

Trey Burton

TE23 (7.5)

TE44 (3.6)

Week 4 routes: Burton (19), Doyle (14), Alie-Cox (8).

Chris Herndon

TE24 (7.4)

TE36 (4.6)

Fantasy usage decreased each week. Unplayable.

Robert Tonyan

TE25 (7.1)

TE4 (15.1)

xFPs: 0 to 6.5 to 9.3 to 12.7. Athletic TE1/2 in good off.

Mo Alie-Cox

TE26 (6.9)

TE14 (10.6)

Week 4 routes: Burton (19), Doyle (14), Alie-Cox (8).

Tyler Higbee

TE27 (6.9)

TE9 (11.6)

Efficiency outlier but LAR 32nd in neutral pass rate.

Rob Gronkowski

TE28 (6.5)

TE38 (4.5)

Looks slow but TE2 appeal without Howard, Godwin.

Dawson Knox

TE29 (6.2)

TE39 (4.3)

Jordan Akins

TE30 (5.7)

TE18 (9.2)


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 2-4. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR Points

Context

Ezekiel Elliott

RB1 (27.2)

RB8 (20.8)

On pace for career-high receiving numbers.

Alvin Kamara

RB2 (25.9)

RB1 (34.7)

24.0+ expected PPR points in all 4 games. My RB1.

Aaron Jones

RB3 (24.0)

RB2 (28.1)

Splits snaps but usage is there. Always efficient.

Derrick Henry

RB4 (22.2)

RB13 (17.7)

Inefficient so far but RB1-level usage. Top-8 RB.

Mike Davis

RB5 (22.2)

RB10 (20.2)

xFPs: Wk 2 (13.9), Wk 3 (28.2), Wk 4 (24.5). RB1.

James Conner

RB6 (20.7)

RB6 (22.5)

Iffy on tape but can’t deny RB1 usage right now.

Joe Mixon

RB7 (19.9)

RB9 (20.8)

Gio had season-low 13 snaps, 5 routes in Week 4.

Miles Sanders

RB8 (19.8)

RB19 (15.5)

Slowed by glute, OL play in Week 4. Long term RB1.

Myles Gaskin

RB9 (18.8)

RB27 (12.6)

Bad situation, but RB1/2 usage. Volume-based RB2/3.

Austin Ekeler

RB10 (18.5)

RB4 (25.1)

Out for weeks (hamstring).

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB11 (18.4)

RB22 (14.5)

Just faced LAC, BAL, NE. Better days are coming.

Chris Carson

RB12 (17.7)

RB12 (18.5)

Season-high 22.4 xFPs in Week 4 without Hyde.

Ronald Jones

RB13 (17.4)

RB25 (12.9)

xFPs: With Fournette healthy (11.2), unhealthy (22.3).

Dalvin Cook

RB14 (17.4)

RB5 (23.9)

Catches down (1.6 P/G) but running hot as top-6 RB1.

Nick Chubb

RB15 (17.1)

RB3 (25.2)

Out 3-6 weeks (knee).

Josh Jacobs

RB16 (16.8)

RB29 (11.7)

Less game-script dependent. Catches P/G: 1.5 to 3.3.

Rex Burkhead

RB17 (16.8)

RB17 (16.6)

Harris slid into Michel role. Needs TDs to be a RB3.

Melvin Gordon

RB18 (16.4)

RB15 (16.7)

Low-end RB1 usage without Lindsay. Low-end RB2 with.

Devin Singletary

RB19 (16.3)

RB20 (14.8)

xFPs: With Moss (14.3), without (18.9). Better than ZM.

Jonathan Taylor

RB20 (15.7)

RB23 (13.7)

Not sure what’s happening. Still low-end RB1 usage.

James Robinson

RB21 (15.0)

RB7 (22.2)

+5.4 expected FPs over expected P/G on RB2 usage.

James White

RB22 (14.5)

RB26 (12.9)

Unknown chemistry with Cam as PPR RB3.

Darrell Henderson

RB23 (14.5)

RB21 (14.6)

Week 4 snaps: Brown (35), Henderson (22). Pain. RB2/3.

Todd Gurley

RB24 (14.3)

RB24 (13.5)

Living at the goal line as volume-based RB2/3.

Kenyan Drake

RB25 (14.0)

RB43 (8.0)

Data (-4.1 PPR over expected) matches bad tape.

David Johnson

RB26 (13.9)

RB32 (10.3)

17.2 xFPs last week as volume-based RB2. Bad OL.

Antonio Gibson

RB27 (13.8)

RB15 (16.7)

xFPs P/G: First three (10.3), last week (19.7).

Kareem Hunt

RB28 (13.6)

RB11 (19.2)

Immediate RB1 with Nick Chubb out.

David Montgomery

RB29 (13.4)

RB28 (12.6)

xFPs: With Cohen (11.4), without (14.7). Volume RB2/3.

Jerick McKinnon

RB30 (13.2)

RB13 (17.7)

xFPs: With Mostert (9.4), without (18.0). Receiving RB.

Leonard Fournette

RB31 (13.1)

RB18 (15.9)

Day to day (ankle). Plays Thursday.

Frank Gore

RB32 (12.1)

RB50 (6.0)

Top 4 player on “The Washed List”.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn

RB33 (11.8)

RB31 (10.6)

Untrusted rookie RB.

Joshua Kelley

RB34 (11.7)

RB38 (8.9)

Goal-line and closer role, but two games with a fumble.

Chase Edmonds

RB35 (10.6)

RB42 (8.2)

2020 catches: Edmonds (13), Drake (5). Stud insurance.

Jamaal Williams

RB36 (10.2)

RB36 (9.2)

Malcolm Brown

RB37 (9.6)

RB56 (5.7)

No floor RB3. Most reliable on 3rd downs for McVay.

Adrian Peterson

RB38 (9.6)

RB45 (7.7)

13.5 carries P/G as starter. One-dimensional RB3/4.

Duke Johnson

RB39 (9.5)

RB46 (7.5)

J.D. McKissic

RB40 (9.2)

RB39 (8.4)

Week 4 snaps: McKissic (39), Gibson (31). Why?

Nyheim Hines

RB41 (9.1)

RB54 (5.9)

Not sure what’s happening. Boom-bust PPR RB3.

Mark Ingram

RB42 (8.7)

RB35 (9.8)

2020 snaps: Dobbins (88), Ingram (80), Gus (70).

Damien Harris

RB43 (8.1)

RB34 (10.0)

Slid into Michel role as pure runner. Needs TDs.

D’Andre Swift

RB44 (8.0)

RB33 (10.1)

1B in RBBC as primary passing-down RB. Bench hold.

Latavius Murray

RB45 (8.0)

RB30 (11.4)

Dion Lewis

RB46 (7.9)

RB47 (7.1)

Devonta Freeman

RB47 (7.8)

RB52 (5.9)

xFPs: Week 3 (1.6), Week 4 (13.6). RB3 in horrid off.

Brian Hill

RB48 (7.2)

RB44 (7.9)

Jeff Wilson

RB49 (7.1)

RB40 (8.4)

Highest % of touches in garbage time in NFL (55%).

Giovani Bernard

RB50 (6.7)

RB51 (6.0)

Rightfully left on sidelines on passing downs Week 4.


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 5

1. Sammy Watkins - The Lizard King, who I root for as he comes out of a deep depression in Buffalo, has led the Chiefs in targets in 3-of-4 games thus far. He has WR31 fantasy usage, and the Chiefs schedule really opens up after facing the Chargers, Ravens, and Patriots in their last three games. Watkins (6.9 aDOT) is being used in the short and intermediate right now, but big plays are coming with safeties shading Tyreek Hill’s side of the field. A date with the Raiders on Sunday opens up a ceiling, and his floor is higher than normal with his 19% target share. Clyde Edwards-Helaire also is a screaming buy.

2. Darius Slayton - With injuries opening up more bankable targets, Slayton enters Week 5 with a 20% target share and 37% air yards share. He’s a streaky player because he is targeted downfield often (12.9 aDOT) and has historically been tied to touchdowns. The boom-bust WR3 has been quiet with Daniel Jones and company struggling in tough matchups (CHI, SF, LAR), but Slayton gets easier coverage with Dallas next. There’s a lot of upside.

3. David Johnson - It’s hard to get anything going against the Chiefs, Steelers, and Ravens, but DJ has RB2 fantasy usage and just needs the correct game script to reach a ceiling. Johnson looks at least somewhat healthy right now and is coming off a season-high 17.2 expected fantasy points. As home favorites against the Jaguars, Johnson could finally benefit from playing with a lead. Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller are also buys.

4. Zach Ertz - I’ve called Ertz the new Jason Witten for two years because he offers literally nothing after the catch, but something has to give with injuries piling up. Last week, Ertz handled a 18% target share against a defense that’s been top-five at defending tight ends for two seasons. The Steelers aren’t easy either, but Ertz could be a hot read target hog in the flats with Philly unable to block right now. A 6-9 target game is in store for the volume-based TE1.

5. Marquise Brown - The Ravens’ speedster led the NFL with 219 air yards last week and enters this week top-10 in average air yards per game (116). He has a 40% air yards share as well, which means he has a monster ceiling whenever Baltimore needs to pass. Even on low volume, Brown has big-play ability with his 17.8 average depth of target. Lamar Jackson and Brown have missed a few of these deep shots, but they’ll land soon. The Bengals could be the victim of a long touchdown. Brown has had WR44 fantasy usage and WR58 per-game production. He’s an upside WR3 this week.


Air Yards & Targets

Average usage from Weeks 1-4, sorted by air yards per game. Minimum two games and 25 air yards per game. Air yards and target shares are averages of each player’s share in games they received a target or carry, so a player who played but didn’t show up in box score needs to be manually filtered. I’ll work on this bug later. If you want week-by-week air yards and target totals, visit this Google Sheet.

Receiver

Week 4 AY

Avg. AY

AY Share

Avg. Tar

Tar Share

Games

Calvin Ridley

98

165

40%

10.0

24%

4

Adam Thielen

132

124

46%

7.8

32%

4

A.J. Green

97

120

31%

8.3

18%

4

Amari Cooper

126

119

31%

12.8

26%

4

Allen Robinson

131

118

33%

10.3

27%

4

DK Metcalf

87

117

40%

7.0

20%

4

Marquise Brown

219

116

40%

6.5

26%

4

DeSean Jackson

NA

115

28%

6.7

15%

3

Tee Higgins

126

115

29%

7.3

17%

3

Jamison Crowder

115

112

34%

11.5

30%

2

Odell Beckham

135

109

43%

7.5

26%

4

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

119

108

36%

6.3

18%

4

Keenan Allen

71

106

38%

12.3

36%

4

Michael Gallup

84

101

26%

6.0

12%

4

D.J. Moore

53

101

43%

8.0

22%

4

Terry McLaurin

135

99

42%

9.8

27%

4

Stefon Diggs

103

97

37%

8.8

24%

4

Will Fuller

95

94

33%

7.3

24%

3

Davante Adams

NA

92

25%

10.0

24%

2

Julio Jones

12

92

20%

6.7

14%

3

Darius Slayton

93

90

37%

7.3

20%

4

Jerry Jeudy

70

89

27%

7.0

20%

4

Tyreek Hill

81

88

37%

7.3

19%

4

Scotty Miller

126

87

26%

5.3

13%

4

Julian Edelman

37

86

44%

7.5

25%

4

Damiere Byrd

150

84

28%

7.3

19%

3

Kenny Golladay

91

84

31%

7.5

25%

2

Tyler Lockett

57

83

28%

8.3

24%

4

KJ Hamler

NA

81

20%

6.0

15%

2

DeAndre Hopkins

69

78

32%

11.5

32%

4

Christian Kirk

52

78

31%

4.7

13%

3

Robby Anderson

109

78

31%

8.5

24%

4

Tyler Boyd

90

77

20%

8.5

20%

4

Quintez Cephus

NA

76

22%

6.5

17%

2

Jalen Reagor

NA

76

16%

4.0

9%

2

Mike Williams

NA

75

24%

4.7

15%

3

Anthony Miller

42

73

19%

4.8

12%

4

John Brown

5

73

23%

5.8

15%

4

Henry Ruggs

NA

73

38%

4.0

12%

2

Tim Patrick

100

71

21%

5.3

15%

4

Diontae Johnson

NA

71

28%

8.3

23%

3

Cedrick Wilson

75

71

15%

6.5

11%

2

D.J. Chark

124

70

26%

5.3

15%

3

Allen Lazard

NA

70

23%

5.7

17%

3

T.Y. Hilton

45

70

31%

5.5

17%

4

George Kittle

109

68

27%

10.0

24%

2

Justin Jefferson

88

67

26%

5.0

20%

4

Mike Gesicki

48

67

26%

5.8

16%

4

DeVante Parker

84

65

27%

7.3

20%

4

Mike Evans

105

65

21%

6.5

17%

4

Mark Andrews

52

65

25%

5.0

19%

4

CeeDee Lamb

94

65

16%

7.3

15%

4

Darnell Mooney

123

65

17%

5.0

13%

4

Brandin Cooks

32

63

22%

5.3

16%

4

Kendrick Bourne

45

61

31%

5.5

16%

4

Chris Hogan

76

60

27%

5.8

16%

4

Corey Davis

NA

60

23%

6.3

19%

3

Kalif Raymond

NA

60

17%

2.5

6%

2

Olamide Zaccheaus

65

59

15%

5.3

14%

3

Zach Ertz

5

58

17%

7.3

18%

4

Chris Conley

13

58

17%

5.0

12%

4

Darren Waller

64

57

23%

10.0

27%

4

O.J. Howard

76

57

18%

4.8

12%

4

Travis Kelce

58

56

22%

8.3

21%

4

Zach Pascal

111

55

27%

4.8

17%

4

Hunter Henry

23

55

19%

6.5

19%

4

Adam Humphries

NA

55

21%

6.7

20%

3

Chris Godwin

NA

54

18%

6.5

18%

2

Logan Thomas

22

53

21%

7.0

20%

4

Emmanuel Sanders

104

53

28%

5.5

18%

4

Danny Amendola

24

52

18%

5.3

15%

4

Isaiah Ford

93

51

18%

6.5

17%

4

Hunter Renfrow

62

51

20%

5.5

15%

4

Preston Williams

39

51

19%

4.3

13%

4

Darrius Shepard

68

51

19%

2.0

6%

2

Jared Cook

NA

50

30%

5.0

15%

3

Hayden Hurst

89

50

13%

5.5

14%

4

Cole Beasley

27

50

18%

6.0

16%

4

Noah Fant

14

49

15%

6.8

19%

4

DaeSean Hamilton

66

49

16%

3.0

9%

3

Eric Ebron

NA

49

19%

4.7

13%

3

Russell Gage

25

49

11%

6.8

16%

4

Dontrelle Inman

25

48

20%

5.0

14%

4

Jarvis Landry

68

47

17%

4.8

16%

4

C.J. Uzomah

NA

47

13%

5.5

12%

2

Marvin Jones

42

47

16%

4.8

14%

4

Dalton Schultz

78

47

11%

7.0

14%

4

James Washington

NA

47

18%

5.0

14%

3

Sammy Watkins

50

47

23%

6.8

19%

4

Andy Isabella

24

44

14%

3.3

10%

3

Kenny Stills

64

44

15%

3.3

10%

4

Marvin Hall

43

44

14%

1.7

5%

3

Jonnu Smith

NA

44

15%

6.7

20%

3

Chase Claypool

NA

44

17%

3.0

8%

3

N’Keal Harry

32

43

21%

7.0

22%

4

Cooper Kupp

53

43

22%

7.0

23%

4

Lawrence Cager

48

42

15%

3.0

9%

2

John Ross

NA

42

13%

3.5

9%

2

Robert Tonyan

63

41

16%

4.7

15%

3

Laviska Shenault

48

41

20%

5.3

15%

4

Dallas Goedert

NA

41

11%

6.0

14%

3

Ted Ginn

7

40

8%

2.0

4%

3

Tre’Quan Smith

50

40

21%

4.5

14%

4

Steven Sims

NA

40

14%

4.0

12%

2

Braxton Berrios

25

38

21%

5.0

15%

3

Rob Gronkowski

70

38

11%

3.5

9%

4

Sterling Shepard

NA

38

15%

5.0

12%

2

Bisi Johnson

32

37

13%

2.7

11%

3

Van Jefferson

35

37

21%

2.5

9%

4

Miles Boykin

52

36

14%

3.8

15%

4

Greg Ward

44

36

14%

6.5

17%

4

Randall Cobb

24

36

12%

4.5

14%

4

Justin Watson

48

35

11%

3.7

9%

3

Jimmy Graham

26

35

9%

5.8

14%

4

KhaDarel Hodge

NA

35

15%

2.0

7%

3

Tyler Eifert

32

35

10%

4.3

11%

4

T.J. Hockenson

30

35

13%

5.0

15%

4

Josh Reynolds

43

34

17%

3.0

10%

4

JuJu Smith-Schuster

NA

34

13%

6.3

17%

3

Tyler Kroft

17

34

13%

4.0

12%

2

Greg Olsen

57

34

11%

4.5

13%

4

Evan Engram

24

34

14%

7.5

20%

4

Golden Tate

17

33

13%

6.0

17%

3

Keelan Cole

25

33

16%

5.8

17%

4

Auden Tate

12

33

8%

2.5

6%

2

Robert Woods

35

32

17%

6.5

21%

4

Demarcus Robinson

NA

31

15%

3.7

10%

3

Jalen Guyton

30

31

12%

1.8

5%

4

Curtis Samuel

28

31

13%

4.5

13%

4

Jesse James

45

30

10%

3.0

10%

2

Jordan Reed

NA

29

15%

5.3

17%

3

Dan Arnold

26

29

10%

3.0

9%

4

Tyler Higbee

17

28

15%

3.8

13%

4

Mo Alie-Cox

7

28

14%

3.3

12%

4

David Moore

72

28

10%

2.8

8%

4

Jack Doyle

11

27

10%

2.5

6%

2

Noah Brown

29

27

6%

2.7

5%

3

Zay Jones

50

26

10%

3.3

8%

3

Brandon Aiyuk

25

26

9%

5.3

15%

3

Chris Herndon

16

26

11%

4.8

14%

4

C.J. Board

10

26

10%

2.0

5%

4

Gabriel Davis

26

25

10%

2.0

6%

4

Nelson Agholor

42

25

11%

2.3

6%

4

Damion Ratley

42

25

10%

2.3

6%

4


Carries & Game-Script Stats

Average usage from Weeks 1-4, sorted by carries per game. Minimum two games and 7.5 carries per game. “Touch % (Lead)” is a player’s share of team touches while his team is leading. I removed touch shares if a team has fewer than 25 plays in a game script or if a player missed a game.

Player

Carries

Inside 10 Carries

Touch % (Lead)

Touch % (Trail)

Games

Derrick Henry

27.3

3.3

42%

48%

3

Josh Jacobs

20.8

2.0

62%

35%

4

Christian McCaffrey

20.5

3.5

NA

NA

2

Joe Mixon

19.0

1.0

42%

27%

4

Dalvin Cook

18.8

2.0

43%

37%

4

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

17.8

2.3

39%

24%

4

Ezekiel Elliott

17.5

3.5

NA

34%

4

Miles Sanders

17.0

1.3

NA

NA

3

Kenyan Drake

16.8

1.5

37%

24%

4

Todd Gurley

16.3

2.5

28%

23%

4

Aaron Jones

16.3

2.5

33%

34%

4

Melvin Gordon

16.3

1.0

38%

34%

4

Jonathan Taylor

16.3

1.8

26%

NA

4

James Robinson

15.0

0.5

NA

31%

4

Nick Chubb

14.3

1.3

22%

24%

4

Ronald Jones

14.3

1.5

25%

27%

4

Frank Gore

13.8

0.5

NA

26%

4

Adrian Peterson

13.5

0.8

27%

21%

4

James Conner

13.3

2.0

20%

32%

3

David Montgomery

13.3

0.3

30%

27%

4

Chris Carson

13.3

1.8

30%

34%

4

Joshua Kelley

13.0

1.5

31%

15%

4

David Johnson

12.8

1.0

NA

28%

4

Kareem Hunt

12.5

1.5

27%

27%

4

Alvin Kamara

12.5

2.8

33%

37%

4

Devin Singletary

12.5

1.0

30%

NA

4

Austin Ekeler

12.3

0.3

16%

32%

4

Myles Gaskin

12.0

1.5

43%

23%

4

Cam Newton

11.7

3.0

NA

NA

3

Raheem Mostert

11.5

0.5

NA

NA

2

Malcolm Brown

11.3

1.5

26%

18%

4

Latavius Murray

11.0

1.5

23%

19%

4

Antonio Gibson

11.0

1.3

NA

23%

4

Darrell Henderson

10.8

2.3

15%

28%

4

Mike Davis

10.0

1.7

NA

NA

3

Lamar Jackson

9.8

0.5

15%

NA

4

Benny Snell

9.7

0.3

23%

12%

3

Saquon Barkley

9.5

0.5

NA

NA

2

Tevin Coleman

9.0

0.5

NA

NA

2

Jordan Wilkins

9.0

0.0

NA

NA

3

Sony Michel

8.7

0.7

NA

NA

3

Jerick McKinnon

8.5

1.0

17%

28%

4

Zack Moss

8.5

2.0

NA

NA

2

Cam Akers

8.5

1.0

NA

NA

2

Mark Ingram

8.5

0.8

17%

NA

4

Kyler Murray

8.0

0.5

12%

13%

4

Devonta Freeman

8.0

0.0

NA

NA

2

Leonard Fournette

8.0

0.7

NA

NA

3

Rex Burkhead

7.5

1.5

15%

14%

4


Garbage Time

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum 10 touches and 25% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touch

Total Touch

Jeff Wilson

57%

12

21

Jordan Wilkins

52%

15

29

Ito Smith

50%

8

16

Olamide Zaccheaus

50%

8

16

Lamical Perine

47%

8

17

Chris Herndon

45%

9

20

Gus Edwards

44%

12

27

Kareem Hunt

44%

27

61

Zack Moss

43%

9

21

Jamison Crowder

39%

9

23

Dontrelle Inman

36%

8

22

J.K. Dobbins

36%

8

22

Tevin Coleman

36%

8

22

Peyton Barber

36%

9

25

Brian Hill

36%

10

28

D’Andre Swift

36%

10

28

Terry McLaurin

35%

14

40

Cole Beasley

33%

8

24

J.D. McKissic

31%

11

35

Chris Thompson

31%

5

16

Drew Sample

31%

5

16

Chris Hogan

30%

7

23

Jimmy Graham

30%

7

23

Will Fuller

30%

7

23

Alexander Mattison

30%

9

30

Logan Thomas

29%

8

28

Kenyan Drake

28%

20

72

Chase Edmonds

27%

9

33

Emmanuel Sanders

27%

6

22

Hunter Renfrow

27%

6

22

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

27%

24

90

O.J. Howard

26%

5

19

Randall Cobb

26%

5

19

Mark Ingram

26%

10

39

Chris Conley

25%

5

20

Darrel Williams

25%

4

16