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“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]
Fantasy Usage Model - WRs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-4. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
Player | Fantasy Usage | Actual PPR Points | Context |
WR1 (32.1) | WR1 (41.6) | Removed Weeks 2-4 (hamstring). | |
WR2 (20.3) | WR4 (20.8) | Aided by crazy game scripts but NFL target leader. | |
WR3 (20.0) | WR16 (17.7) | 1st in target share (36%). 22 xFPs P/G with Herbert. | |
WR4 (19.6) | WR5 (20.1) | Week 4 dud on bad leg vs. CB Alexander. | |
WR5 (19.3) | WR25 (16.0) | Removed Weeks 2-4 (hamstring). Rest up. | |
WR6 (18.3) | WR2 (21.2) | 19.8 xFPs in 3 healthy games. | |
WR7 (17.7) | WR3 (21.0) | 19.7 & 15.7 xFPs in healthy games. PPR WR2. | |
WR8 (17.2) | WR17 (17.5) | 1 of 5 WRs averaging 10 targets & 100 air yards. | |
WR9 (17.0) | WR19 (17.5) | Removed Week 3. First 2 were very promising. | |
WR10 (15.9) | WR14 (17.8) | The WR1/2 usage we loved on the Rotoworld Pod. | |
WR11 (15.4) | WR7 (19.6) | Efficient on WR2 usage. Schedule hardens next. | |
WR12 (15.0) | WR34 (13.7) | Removed Week 3. WR2/3 if Julio misses. | |
WR13 (14.4) | WR6 (20.0) | Production is less tied to deep ball compared to DK. | |
WR14 (14.4) | WR12 (17.9) | Possession WR (9.1 aDOT) on WR2 usage. | |
WR15 (14.3) | WR21 (17.0) | WR2 usage on 29% air yards share. | |
WR16 (14.3) | WR37 (12.7) | Buy low after PIT, CHI, SF, LAR start. Volatile WR3. | |
WR17 (14.2) | WR22 (16.6) | All 34 targets within 20 yards of line of scrimmage. | |
WR18 (14.0) | WR91 (6.5) | Worst WR in xFPs over expected P/G (-7.6). WR4/5. | |
WR19 (13.8) | WR35 (13.5) | Removed Week 1. Similar usage as dusty AJG. | |
WR20 (13.6) | WR15 (17.7) | Volatile WR2/3. 14.5 aDOT & 41% air yards share. | |
WR21 (13.6) | WR40 (12.4) | Looks to be at 80%. Needs Cam to be a WR2/3. | |
WR22 (13.6) | WR56 (10.2) | Inefficient, slow, red zone reliant WR4 with Cam. | |
WR23 (13.6) | WR43 (11.7) | Fewer easy targets so far. More WR2/3 than WR1/2. | |
WR24 (13.3) | WR66 (8.9) | Titans battling Covid-19 breakout. | |
WR25 (13.3) | WR9 (18.8) | Efficiency outlier. Booms coming vs. easier schedule. | |
WR26 (13.2) | WR8 (19.1) | 7.3 targets, 94 air yards in 3 healthy games. WR2. | |
WR27 (13.2) | WR11 (18.4) | 124 air yards P/G (2nd). 16.4 aDOT means volatile. | |
WR28 (13.1) | WR28 (15.1) | 98% Week 4 routes as a starter without Perriman. | |
WR29 (12.9) | WR24 (16.3) | Stud on steady, WR3-level usage from the slot. | |
WR30 (12.9) | WR30 (14.5) | WR3 usage despite being banged up. Upside WR2/3. | |
WR31 (12.8) | WR49 (11.3) | Led KC in targets in 3-of-4 games. Upside WR3. | |
WR32 (12.7) | WR26 (15.7) | Week to week (hamstring). Miller time. | |
WR33 (12.6) | WR27 (15.1) | Efficient on WR3/4 usage with tough schedule coming. | |
WR34 (12.2) | WR17 (17.5) | Plays Thursday after rolling ankle Sunday. | |
WR35 (12.1) | WR29 (15.1) | LAR 31st in team air yards. Efficient on WR3 usage. | |
WR36 (11.7) | WR39 (12.5) | WR4 usage with tougher schedule coming. 16% targets. | |
WR37 (11.6) | WR51 (11.1) | WR4 usage but likely no Hamler, Fant for Week 5. | |
WR38 (11.3) | WR10 (18.6) | Best WR in PPR over expected P/G (+7.3). Upside WR2. | |
WR39 (11.3) | WR86 (7.2) | Volatile WR4/5 usage when healthy (hamstring). | |
WR40 (11.3) | WR22 (16.6) | LAR 31st in team air yards. Efficient on WR3/4 usage. | |
WR41 (11.3) | WR36 (12.9) | Good but WR5 usage with Kittle, Deebo back in lineup. | |
WR42 (11.1) | WR47 (11.5) | Titans battling Covid-19 breakout. | |
WR43 (10.9) | WR52 (11.1) | Thomas close to a return. NO last in team air yards. | |
WR44 (10.8) | WR59 (10.1) | WR5 usage & downfield reliant. Boom-bust flex. | |
WR45 (10.6) | WR31 (14.2) | Removed Wks 1-2 to reflect new usage as 2-WR starter. | |
WR46 (10.5) | WR20 (17.0) | 5.3 aDOT lowers ceiling unless targets go up. | |
WR47 (10.5) | WR60 (9.8) | One-dimensional deep threat. Upside WR4/5. | |
WR48 (10.2) | WR62 (9.5) | xFPs: With DeSean healthy (5.7), unhealthy (14.7). Flex. | |
WR49 (10.2) | WR84 (7.3) | Re-injured hamstring Week 4. | |
WR50 (10.1) | WR32 (13.9) | Titans battling Covid-19 breakout. | |
WR51 (10.0) | WR73 (8.1) | WR5 fantasy usage in horrid offense. | |
WR52 (10.0) | WR79 (7.5) | 70% routes Week 4 as 3-WR slot man. WR5/6 usage. | |
WR53 (10.0) | WR81 (7.4) | 35% of targets more than 20+ air yards. Volatile WR5. | |
WR54 (9.9) | WR13 (17.8) | 23% target share (88% routes) in return. Upside WR2/3. | |
WR55 (9.9) | WR45 (11.6) | 92% targets near the sideline & 25% downfield. Volatile. | |
WR56 (9.9) | WR54 (10.7) | One more week on injured reserve (toe). | |
WR57 (9.8) | WR104 (5.2) | Bad & 23-of-23 targets near the sideline. | |
WR58 (9.6) | WR85 (7.2) | xFPs: Weeks 1-3 (7.3), Week 4 (16.6). Flex. | |
WR59 (9.5) | WR72 (8.2) | Deebo victim. 3rd WR on heavy 2-WR set offense. | |
WR60 (9.5) | WR55 (10.5) | xFPs: With Ruggs (4.5), without (14.4). | |
WR61 (9.4) | WR46 (11.6) | 60% snap share & WR5 usage, but worthy bench hold. | |
Michael Thomas | WR62 (9.1) | WR109 (4.7) | NO 29th in neutral pass rate through 4 weeks. |
WR63 (9.1) | WR53 (11.0) | WR5 as long as A-Rob is healthy. | |
WR64 (9.1) | WR92 (6.1) | WR5 usage with stone hands. | |
WR65 (9.1) | WR38 (12.6) | WR5 usage as slot WR in run-first offense. | |
WR66 (8.9) | WR74 (8.1) | 13% target share won’t cut it. Droppable. | |
WR67 (8.9) | WR82 (7.3) | Old & averaging 7.2 xFPs in the last 3 games. | |
WR68 (8.9) | WR42 (12.2) | No. 2 WR if Hamler is out. Deep ball reliant as a WR5/6. | |
WR69 (8.9) | WR103 (5.2) | Target share: Williams (12%), Ford (18%). Droppable. | |
WR70 (8.7) | WR61 (9.6) | Removed Weeks 2-4 (knee). | |
WR71 (8.6) | WR44 (11.7) | 11.6 xFPs with Godwin sidelined Week 4. WR4. | |
WR72 (8.5) | WR93 (6.0) | 93% routes turned into 4.4 xFPs last week. WR5/6. | |
WR73 (8.5) | WR69 (8.4) | ||
WR74 (8.4) | WR87 (6.9) | 8.3 & 4.1 expected FPs in two games with Golladay. | |
WR75 (8.4) | WR50 (11.2) | xFPs: With Thomas (1.3), without (9.1). | |
WR76 (8.3) | WR48 (11.4) | ||
WR77 (8.3) | WR90 (6.6) | 10-team droppable. 8.3 expected FPs P/G. | |
WR78 (8.2) | WR77 (8.0) | 4.9 & 3.4 expected FPs in two games with Golladay. | |
WR79 (8.2) | WR68 (8.4) | ||
WR80 (8.2) | WR75 (8.0) | ||
WR81 (8.0) | WR58 (10.1) | Under 9.0 xFPs in each game. | |
WR82 (7.8) | WR70 (8.3) | 2020 routes: Miller (63%), Mooney (60%). | |
WR83 (7.7) | WR65 (9.0) | Hurt? Also needs CLE to pass more. No Chubb. | |
WR84 (6.0) | WR89 (6.7) | 13.7 xFPs in Week 4 as relief pitcher. | |
WR85 (5.5) | WR63 (9.4) | Elite efficiency but battling for snaps, touches. WR5. |
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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-4. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
Player | Fantasy Usage | Actual PPR Points | Context |
TE1 (26.8) | TE1 (40.1) | Removed Week 1 (knee). Value as 2nd-round pick. | |
TE2 (17.4) | TE5 (14.9) | 28% target share (10 P/G) puts him in top-3 TE mix. | |
TE3 (14.2) | TE2 (16.4) | Elite production despite LAC, BAL, NE recently. | |
TE4 (12.7) | TE24 (7.3) | Totals won’t match usage, which has fallen 3-straight. | |
TE5 (12.7) | TE3 (16.4) | TE1 if Titans can play & Brown is sidelined. | |
TE6 (12.6) | TE23 (7.5) | Usage & easier schedule keep him as low-end TE1. | |
TE7 (12.4) | TE16 (9.7) | Witten-level YAC ability on mid-TE1 usage. | |
TE8 (12.3) | TE8 (13.0) | Crazy game scripts aided TE1 production. TE1/2. | |
TE9 (11.8) | TE11 (11.3) | No. 2 TE in aDOT makes him a boom-bust TE1. | |
TE10 (11.6) | TE6 (13.2) | Out of Week 5 (ankle). Mid-range TE1 when healthy. | |
TE11 (11.5) | TE10 (11.4) | 2nd on Bears in routes run (74%) as no floor TE2. | |
TE12 (10.5) | TE7 (13.2) | 20% target share hurt by blowouts. Volatile TE1. | |
TE13 (10.4) | TE13 (10.6) | Low-end TE1 usage with target tree tightening. | |
TE14 (9.4) | TE12 (11.3) | Near full-time role last 2 weeks. TE1/2 usage. | |
TE15 (9.3) | TE15 (10.3) | 12% target share on pass-heavy team. TE1/2. | |
TE16 (8.7) | TE20 (8.8) | High-end TE2 when Thomas returns. Needs TDs. | |
TE17 (8.5) | TE22 (8.0) | TD-dependent TE2/3 attached to MVP candidate. | |
TE18 (8.2) | TE28 (5.5) | Slow but 10.6 xFPs P/G post Uzomah as TE2 streamer. | |
TE19 (8.2) | TE21 (8.8) | TD-dependent TE2 on 13% target share. | |
TE20 (7.6) | TE29 (5.4) | Bad team. Old player. Volatile low-end TE2 usage. | |
TE21 (7.6) | TE17 (9.4) | Out for season (Achilles). | |
TE22 (7.5) | TE27 (6.9) | TE2/3 usage. Needs CLE to pass more. No Chubb. | |
TE23 (7.5) | TE44 (3.6) | Week 4 routes: Burton (19), Doyle (14), Alie-Cox (8). | |
TE24 (7.4) | TE36 (4.6) | Fantasy usage decreased each week. Unplayable. | |
TE25 (7.1) | TE4 (15.1) | xFPs: 0 to 6.5 to 9.3 to 12.7. Athletic TE1/2 in good off. | |
TE26 (6.9) | TE14 (10.6) | Week 4 routes: Burton (19), Doyle (14), Alie-Cox (8). | |
TE27 (6.9) | TE9 (11.6) | Efficiency outlier but LAR 32nd in neutral pass rate. | |
TE28 (6.5) | TE38 (4.5) | Looks slow but TE2 appeal without Howard, Godwin. | |
TE29 (6.2) | TE39 (4.3) | ||
TE30 (5.7) | TE18 (9.2) |
Fantasy Usage Model - RBs
Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 2-4. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.
Player | Fantasy Usage | Actual PPR Points | Context |
RB1 (27.2) | RB8 (20.8) | On pace for career-high receiving numbers. | |
RB2 (25.9) | RB1 (34.7) | 24.0+ expected PPR points in all 4 games. My RB1. | |
RB3 (24.0) | RB2 (28.1) | Splits snaps but usage is there. Always efficient. | |
RB4 (22.2) | RB13 (17.7) | Inefficient so far but RB1-level usage. Top-8 RB. | |
RB5 (22.2) | RB10 (20.2) | xFPs: Wk 2 (13.9), Wk 3 (28.2), Wk 4 (24.5). RB1. | |
RB6 (20.7) | RB6 (22.5) | Iffy on tape but can’t deny RB1 usage right now. | |
RB7 (19.9) | RB9 (20.8) | Gio had season-low 13 snaps, 5 routes in Week 4. | |
RB8 (19.8) | RB19 (15.5) | Slowed by glute, OL play in Week 4. Long term RB1. | |
RB9 (18.8) | RB27 (12.6) | Bad situation, but RB1/2 usage. Volume-based RB2/3. | |
RB10 (18.5) | RB4 (25.1) | Out for weeks (hamstring). | |
RB11 (18.4) | RB22 (14.5) | Just faced LAC, BAL, NE. Better days are coming. | |
RB12 (17.7) | RB12 (18.5) | Season-high 22.4 xFPs in Week 4 without Hyde. | |
RB13 (17.4) | RB25 (12.9) | xFPs: With Fournette healthy (11.2), unhealthy (22.3). | |
RB14 (17.4) | RB5 (23.9) | Catches down (1.6 P/G) but running hot as top-6 RB1. | |
RB15 (17.1) | RB3 (25.2) | Out 3-6 weeks (knee). | |
RB16 (16.8) | RB29 (11.7) | Less game-script dependent. Catches P/G: 1.5 to 3.3. | |
RB17 (16.8) | RB17 (16.6) | Harris slid into Michel role. Needs TDs to be a RB3. | |
RB18 (16.4) | RB15 (16.7) | Low-end RB1 usage without Lindsay. Low-end RB2 with. | |
RB19 (16.3) | RB20 (14.8) | xFPs: With Moss (14.3), without (18.9). Better than ZM. | |
RB20 (15.7) | RB23 (13.7) | Not sure what’s happening. Still low-end RB1 usage. | |
RB21 (15.0) | RB7 (22.2) | +5.4 expected FPs over expected P/G on RB2 usage. | |
RB22 (14.5) | RB26 (12.9) | Unknown chemistry with Cam as PPR RB3. | |
RB23 (14.5) | RB21 (14.6) | Week 4 snaps: Brown (35), Henderson (22). Pain. RB2/3. | |
RB24 (14.3) | RB24 (13.5) | Living at the goal line as volume-based RB2/3. | |
RB25 (14.0) | RB43 (8.0) | Data (-4.1 PPR over expected) matches bad tape. | |
RB26 (13.9) | RB32 (10.3) | 17.2 xFPs last week as volume-based RB2. Bad OL. | |
RB27 (13.8) | RB15 (16.7) | xFPs P/G: First three (10.3), last week (19.7). | |
RB28 (13.6) | RB11 (19.2) | Immediate RB1 with Nick Chubb out. | |
RB29 (13.4) | RB28 (12.6) | xFPs: With Cohen (11.4), without (14.7). Volume RB2/3. | |
RB30 (13.2) | RB13 (17.7) | xFPs: With Mostert (9.4), without (18.0). Receiving RB. | |
RB31 (13.1) | RB18 (15.9) | Day to day (ankle). Plays Thursday. | |
RB32 (12.1) | RB50 (6.0) | Top 4 player on “The Washed List”. | |
RB33 (11.8) | RB31 (10.6) | Untrusted rookie RB. | |
RB34 (11.7) | RB38 (8.9) | Goal-line and closer role, but two games with a fumble. | |
RB35 (10.6) | RB42 (8.2) | 2020 catches: Edmonds (13), Drake (5). Stud insurance. | |
RB36 (10.2) | RB36 (9.2) | ||
RB37 (9.6) | RB56 (5.7) | No floor RB3. Most reliable on 3rd downs for McVay. | |
RB38 (9.6) | RB45 (7.7) | 13.5 carries P/G as starter. One-dimensional RB3/4. | |
RB39 (9.5) | RB46 (7.5) | ||
RB40 (9.2) | RB39 (8.4) | Week 4 snaps: McKissic (39), Gibson (31). Why? | |
RB41 (9.1) | RB54 (5.9) | Not sure what’s happening. Boom-bust PPR RB3. | |
RB42 (8.7) | RB35 (9.8) | 2020 snaps: Dobbins (88), Ingram (80), Gus (70). | |
RB43 (8.1) | RB34 (10.0) | Slid into Michel role as pure runner. Needs TDs. | |
RB44 (8.0) | RB33 (10.1) | 1B in RBBC as primary passing-down RB. Bench hold. | |
RB45 (8.0) | RB30 (11.4) | ||
RB46 (7.9) | RB47 (7.1) | ||
RB47 (7.8) | RB52 (5.9) | xFPs: Week 3 (1.6), Week 4 (13.6). RB3 in horrid off. | |
RB48 (7.2) | RB44 (7.9) | ||
RB49 (7.1) | RB40 (8.4) | Highest % of touches in garbage time in NFL (55%). | |
RB50 (6.7) | RB51 (6.0) | Rightfully left on sidelines on passing downs Week 4. |
Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 5
1. Sammy Watkins - The Lizard King, who I root for as he comes out of a deep depression in Buffalo, has led the Chiefs in targets in 3-of-4 games thus far. He has WR31 fantasy usage, and the Chiefs schedule really opens up after facing the Chargers, Ravens, and Patriots in their last three games. Watkins (6.9 aDOT) is being used in the short and intermediate right now, but big plays are coming with safeties shading Tyreek Hill’s side of the field. A date with the Raiders on Sunday opens up a ceiling, and his floor is higher than normal with his 19% target share. Clyde Edwards-Helaire also is a screaming buy.
2. Darius Slayton - With injuries opening up more bankable targets, Slayton enters Week 5 with a 20% target share and 37% air yards share. He’s a streaky player because he is targeted downfield often (12.9 aDOT) and has historically been tied to touchdowns. The boom-bust WR3 has been quiet with Daniel Jones and company struggling in tough matchups (CHI, SF, LAR), but Slayton gets easier coverage with Dallas next. There’s a lot of upside.
3. David Johnson - It’s hard to get anything going against the Chiefs, Steelers, and Ravens, but DJ has RB2 fantasy usage and just needs the correct game script to reach a ceiling. Johnson looks at least somewhat healthy right now and is coming off a season-high 17.2 expected fantasy points. As home favorites against the Jaguars, Johnson could finally benefit from playing with a lead. Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller are also buys.
4. Zach Ertz - I’ve called Ertz the new Jason Witten for two years because he offers literally nothing after the catch, but something has to give with injuries piling up. Last week, Ertz handled a 18% target share against a defense that’s been top-five at defending tight ends for two seasons. The Steelers aren’t easy either, but Ertz could be a hot read target hog in the flats with Philly unable to block right now. A 6-9 target game is in store for the volume-based TE1.
5. Marquise Brown - The Ravens’ speedster led the NFL with 219 air yards last week and enters this week top-10 in average air yards per game (116). He has a 40% air yards share as well, which means he has a monster ceiling whenever Baltimore needs to pass. Even on low volume, Brown has big-play ability with his 17.8 average depth of target. Lamar Jackson and Brown have missed a few of these deep shots, but they’ll land soon. The Bengals could be the victim of a long touchdown. Brown has had WR44 fantasy usage and WR58 per-game production. He’s an upside WR3 this week.
Air Yards & Targets
Average usage from Weeks 1-4, sorted by air yards per game. Minimum two games and 25 air yards per game. Air yards and target shares are averages of each player’s share in games they received a target or carry, so a player who played but didn’t show up in box score needs to be manually filtered. I’ll work on this bug later. If you want week-by-week air yards and target totals, visit this Google Sheet.
Receiver | Week 4 AY | Avg. AY | AY Share | Avg. Tar | Tar Share | Games |
98 | 165 | 40% | 10.0 | 24% | 4 | |
132 | 124 | 46% | 7.8 | 32% | 4 | |
97 | 120 | 31% | 8.3 | 18% | 4 | |
126 | 119 | 31% | 12.8 | 26% | 4 | |
131 | 118 | 33% | 10.3 | 27% | 4 | |
87 | 117 | 40% | 7.0 | 20% | 4 | |
219 | 116 | 40% | 6.5 | 26% | 4 | |
NA | 115 | 28% | 6.7 | 15% | 3 | |
126 | 115 | 29% | 7.3 | 17% | 3 | |
115 | 112 | 34% | 11.5 | 30% | 2 | |
135 | 109 | 43% | 7.5 | 26% | 4 | |
119 | 108 | 36% | 6.3 | 18% | 4 | |
71 | 106 | 38% | 12.3 | 36% | 4 | |
84 | 101 | 26% | 6.0 | 12% | 4 | |
53 | 101 | 43% | 8.0 | 22% | 4 | |
135 | 99 | 42% | 9.8 | 27% | 4 | |
103 | 97 | 37% | 8.8 | 24% | 4 | |
95 | 94 | 33% | 7.3 | 24% | 3 | |
NA | 92 | 25% | 10.0 | 24% | 2 | |
12 | 92 | 20% | 6.7 | 14% | 3 | |
93 | 90 | 37% | 7.3 | 20% | 4 | |
70 | 89 | 27% | 7.0 | 20% | 4 | |
81 | 88 | 37% | 7.3 | 19% | 4 | |
126 | 87 | 26% | 5.3 | 13% | 4 | |
37 | 86 | 44% | 7.5 | 25% | 4 | |
150 | 84 | 28% | 7.3 | 19% | 3 | |
91 | 84 | 31% | 7.5 | 25% | 2 | |
57 | 83 | 28% | 8.3 | 24% | 4 | |
NA | 81 | 20% | 6.0 | 15% | 2 | |
69 | 78 | 32% | 11.5 | 32% | 4 | |
52 | 78 | 31% | 4.7 | 13% | 3 | |
109 | 78 | 31% | 8.5 | 24% | 4 | |
90 | 77 | 20% | 8.5 | 20% | 4 | |
NA | 76 | 22% | 6.5 | 17% | 2 | |
NA | 76 | 16% | 4.0 | 9% | 2 | |
NA | 75 | 24% | 4.7 | 15% | 3 | |
42 | 73 | 19% | 4.8 | 12% | 4 | |
5 | 73 | 23% | 5.8 | 15% | 4 | |
NA | 73 | 38% | 4.0 | 12% | 2 | |
100 | 71 | 21% | 5.3 | 15% | 4 | |
NA | 71 | 28% | 8.3 | 23% | 3 | |
75 | 71 | 15% | 6.5 | 11% | 2 | |
124 | 70 | 26% | 5.3 | 15% | 3 | |
NA | 70 | 23% | 5.7 | 17% | 3 | |
45 | 70 | 31% | 5.5 | 17% | 4 | |
109 | 68 | 27% | 10.0 | 24% | 2 | |
88 | 67 | 26% | 5.0 | 20% | 4 | |
48 | 67 | 26% | 5.8 | 16% | 4 | |
84 | 65 | 27% | 7.3 | 20% | 4 | |
105 | 65 | 21% | 6.5 | 17% | 4 | |
52 | 65 | 25% | 5.0 | 19% | 4 | |
94 | 65 | 16% | 7.3 | 15% | 4 | |
123 | 65 | 17% | 5.0 | 13% | 4 | |
32 | 63 | 22% | 5.3 | 16% | 4 | |
45 | 61 | 31% | 5.5 | 16% | 4 | |
76 | 60 | 27% | 5.8 | 16% | 4 | |
NA | 60 | 23% | 6.3 | 19% | 3 | |
NA | 60 | 17% | 2.5 | 6% | 2 | |
65 | 59 | 15% | 5.3 | 14% | 3 | |
5 | 58 | 17% | 7.3 | 18% | 4 | |
13 | 58 | 17% | 5.0 | 12% | 4 | |
64 | 57 | 23% | 10.0 | 27% | 4 | |
76 | 57 | 18% | 4.8 | 12% | 4 | |
58 | 56 | 22% | 8.3 | 21% | 4 | |
111 | 55 | 27% | 4.8 | 17% | 4 | |
23 | 55 | 19% | 6.5 | 19% | 4 | |
NA | 55 | 21% | 6.7 | 20% | 3 | |
NA | 54 | 18% | 6.5 | 18% | 2 | |
22 | 53 | 21% | 7.0 | 20% | 4 | |
104 | 53 | 28% | 5.5 | 18% | 4 | |
24 | 52 | 18% | 5.3 | 15% | 4 | |
93 | 51 | 18% | 6.5 | 17% | 4 | |
62 | 51 | 20% | 5.5 | 15% | 4 | |
39 | 51 | 19% | 4.3 | 13% | 4 | |
Darrius Shepard | 68 | 51 | 19% | 2.0 | 6% | 2 |
NA | 50 | 30% | 5.0 | 15% | 3 | |
89 | 50 | 13% | 5.5 | 14% | 4 | |
27 | 50 | 18% | 6.0 | 16% | 4 | |
14 | 49 | 15% | 6.8 | 19% | 4 | |
66 | 49 | 16% | 3.0 | 9% | 3 | |
NA | 49 | 19% | 4.7 | 13% | 3 | |
25 | 49 | 11% | 6.8 | 16% | 4 | |
25 | 48 | 20% | 5.0 | 14% | 4 | |
68 | 47 | 17% | 4.8 | 16% | 4 | |
NA | 47 | 13% | 5.5 | 12% | 2 | |
42 | 47 | 16% | 4.8 | 14% | 4 | |
78 | 47 | 11% | 7.0 | 14% | 4 | |
NA | 47 | 18% | 5.0 | 14% | 3 | |
50 | 47 | 23% | 6.8 | 19% | 4 | |
24 | 44 | 14% | 3.3 | 10% | 3 | |
64 | 44 | 15% | 3.3 | 10% | 4 | |
43 | 44 | 14% | 1.7 | 5% | 3 | |
NA | 44 | 15% | 6.7 | 20% | 3 | |
NA | 44 | 17% | 3.0 | 8% | 3 | |
32 | 43 | 21% | 7.0 | 22% | 4 | |
53 | 43 | 22% | 7.0 | 23% | 4 | |
48 | 42 | 15% | 3.0 | 9% | 2 | |
NA | 42 | 13% | 3.5 | 9% | 2 | |
63 | 41 | 16% | 4.7 | 15% | 3 | |
48 | 41 | 20% | 5.3 | 15% | 4 | |
NA | 41 | 11% | 6.0 | 14% | 3 | |
7 | 40 | 8% | 2.0 | 4% | 3 | |
50 | 40 | 21% | 4.5 | 14% | 4 | |
NA | 40 | 14% | 4.0 | 12% | 2 | |
25 | 38 | 21% | 5.0 | 15% | 3 | |
70 | 38 | 11% | 3.5 | 9% | 4 | |
NA | 38 | 15% | 5.0 | 12% | 2 | |
32 | 37 | 13% | 2.7 | 11% | 3 | |
35 | 37 | 21% | 2.5 | 9% | 4 | |
52 | 36 | 14% | 3.8 | 15% | 4 | |
44 | 36 | 14% | 6.5 | 17% | 4 | |
24 | 36 | 12% | 4.5 | 14% | 4 | |
48 | 35 | 11% | 3.7 | 9% | 3 | |
26 | 35 | 9% | 5.8 | 14% | 4 | |
NA | 35 | 15% | 2.0 | 7% | 3 | |
32 | 35 | 10% | 4.3 | 11% | 4 | |
30 | 35 | 13% | 5.0 | 15% | 4 | |
43 | 34 | 17% | 3.0 | 10% | 4 | |
NA | 34 | 13% | 6.3 | 17% | 3 | |
17 | 34 | 13% | 4.0 | 12% | 2 | |
57 | 34 | 11% | 4.5 | 13% | 4 | |
24 | 34 | 14% | 7.5 | 20% | 4 | |
17 | 33 | 13% | 6.0 | 17% | 3 | |
25 | 33 | 16% | 5.8 | 17% | 4 | |
12 | 33 | 8% | 2.5 | 6% | 2 | |
35 | 32 | 17% | 6.5 | 21% | 4 | |
NA | 31 | 15% | 3.7 | 10% | 3 | |
30 | 31 | 12% | 1.8 | 5% | 4 | |
28 | 31 | 13% | 4.5 | 13% | 4 | |
45 | 30 | 10% | 3.0 | 10% | 2 | |
NA | 29 | 15% | 5.3 | 17% | 3 | |
26 | 29 | 10% | 3.0 | 9% | 4 | |
17 | 28 | 15% | 3.8 | 13% | 4 | |
7 | 28 | 14% | 3.3 | 12% | 4 | |
72 | 28 | 10% | 2.8 | 8% | 4 | |
11 | 27 | 10% | 2.5 | 6% | 2 | |
29 | 27 | 6% | 2.7 | 5% | 3 | |
50 | 26 | 10% | 3.3 | 8% | 3 | |
25 | 26 | 9% | 5.3 | 15% | 3 | |
16 | 26 | 11% | 4.8 | 14% | 4 | |
C.J. Board | 10 | 26 | 10% | 2.0 | 5% | 4 |
26 | 25 | 10% | 2.0 | 6% | 4 | |
42 | 25 | 11% | 2.3 | 6% | 4 | |
42 | 25 | 10% | 2.3 | 6% | 4 |
Carries & Game-Script Stats
Average usage from Weeks 1-4, sorted by carries per game. Minimum two games and 7.5 carries per game. “Touch % (Lead)” is a player’s share of team touches while his team is leading. I removed touch shares if a team has fewer than 25 plays in a game script or if a player missed a game.
Player | Carries | Inside 10 Carries | Touch % (Lead) | Touch % (Trail) | Games |
27.3 | 3.3 | 42% | 48% | 3 | |
20.8 | 2.0 | 62% | 35% | 4 | |
20.5 | 3.5 | NA | NA | 2 | |
19.0 | 1.0 | 42% | 27% | 4 | |
18.8 | 2.0 | 43% | 37% | 4 | |
17.8 | 2.3 | 39% | 24% | 4 | |
17.5 | 3.5 | NA | 34% | 4 | |
17.0 | 1.3 | NA | NA | 3 | |
16.8 | 1.5 | 37% | 24% | 4 | |
16.3 | 2.5 | 28% | 23% | 4 | |
16.3 | 2.5 | 33% | 34% | 4 | |
16.3 | 1.0 | 38% | 34% | 4 | |
16.3 | 1.8 | 26% | NA | 4 | |
15.0 | 0.5 | NA | 31% | 4 | |
14.3 | 1.3 | 22% | 24% | 4 | |
14.3 | 1.5 | 25% | 27% | 4 | |
13.8 | 0.5 | NA | 26% | 4 | |
13.5 | 0.8 | 27% | 21% | 4 | |
13.3 | 2.0 | 20% | 32% | 3 | |
13.3 | 0.3 | 30% | 27% | 4 | |
13.3 | 1.8 | 30% | 34% | 4 | |
13.0 | 1.5 | 31% | 15% | 4 | |
12.8 | 1.0 | NA | 28% | 4 | |
12.5 | 1.5 | 27% | 27% | 4 | |
12.5 | 2.8 | 33% | 37% | 4 | |
12.5 | 1.0 | 30% | NA | 4 | |
12.3 | 0.3 | 16% | 32% | 4 | |
12.0 | 1.5 | 43% | 23% | 4 | |
11.7 | 3.0 | NA | NA | 3 | |
11.5 | 0.5 | NA | NA | 2 | |
11.3 | 1.5 | 26% | 18% | 4 | |
11.0 | 1.5 | 23% | 19% | 4 | |
11.0 | 1.3 | NA | 23% | 4 | |
10.8 | 2.3 | 15% | 28% | 4 | |
10.0 | 1.7 | NA | NA | 3 | |
9.8 | 0.5 | 15% | NA | 4 | |
9.7 | 0.3 | 23% | 12% | 3 | |
9.5 | 0.5 | NA | NA | 2 | |
9.0 | 0.5 | NA | NA | 2 | |
9.0 | 0.0 | NA | NA | 3 | |
8.7 | 0.7 | NA | NA | 3 | |
8.5 | 1.0 | 17% | 28% | 4 | |
8.5 | 2.0 | NA | NA | 2 | |
8.5 | 1.0 | NA | NA | 2 | |
8.5 | 0.8 | 17% | NA | 4 | |
8.0 | 0.5 | 12% | 13% | 4 | |
8.0 | 0.0 | NA | NA | 2 | |
8.0 | 0.7 | NA | NA | 3 | |
7.5 | 1.5 | 15% | 14% | 4 |
Garbage Time
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum 10 touches and 25% “Garbage Rate”.
Player | Garbage Rate | Garbage Touch | Total Touch |
57% | 12 | 21 | |
52% | 15 | 29 | |
50% | 8 | 16 | |
50% | 8 | 16 | |
47% | 8 | 17 | |
45% | 9 | 20 | |
44% | 12 | 27 | |
44% | 27 | 61 | |
43% | 9 | 21 | |
39% | 9 | 23 | |
36% | 8 | 22 | |
36% | 8 | 22 | |
36% | 8 | 22 | |
36% | 9 | 25 | |
36% | 10 | 28 | |
36% | 10 | 28 | |
35% | 14 | 40 | |
33% | 8 | 24 | |
31% | 11 | 35 | |
Chris Thompson | 31% | 5 | 16 |
31% | 5 | 16 | |
30% | 7 | 23 | |
30% | 7 | 23 | |
30% | 7 | 23 | |
30% | 9 | 30 | |
29% | 8 | 28 | |
28% | 20 | 72 | |
27% | 9 | 33 | |
27% | 6 | 22 | |
27% | 6 | 22 | |
27% | 24 | 90 | |
26% | 5 | 19 | |
26% | 5 | 19 | |
26% | 10 | 39 | |
25% | 5 | 20 | |
25% | 4 | 16 |