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You love to read it when you somehow had the foresight to start or avoid these players, you hate to read it when it’s time to figure out how that could have happened: It’s The Week In Confounding Fantasy Football! The Cowboys fell apart on their own island game, Jonathan Taylor smashed an unsmashable spot, and Jeff Wilson was bottled up by the Jaguars.
Jonathan Taylor destroys a Bills defense that had been bankable all season
How did this happen? Buffalo’s defense has been unimpeachably the best unit in the NFL this season, certainly the most consistent. It entered the game first in defensive DVOA, and third in rush defense DVOA. The cases in favor of playing Jonathan Taylor started with a) he’s Jonathan Taylor and he’s been crushing it, b) running backs with his level of workload are unimpeachable today, and c) Derrick Henry flexed on the Bills on Monday Night Football. The Bills were going to bottle up Carson Wentz -- that was a given -- so it was just sort of naturally assumed that Taylor wouldn’t have a dominant day.
Well, nobody told Jonathan Taylor that.
Play of the Day Candidate: Jack Doyle prevents a stuff and Jonathan Taylor generates 40+ #Colts pic.twitter.com/f6MozGTJpq
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 22, 2021
While Austin Ekeler would later come for the throne in a Sunday Night romp, Taylor was the swing player of fantasy football this week, putting up five touchdowns and over 50 points in most standard formats. He crushed the Bills run defense, layering move after move on their defense that was missing Star Lotulelei and Tremaine Edmunds. And perhaps most impressively, this wasn’t 185 yards of rushing built on a long, monster touchdown run. His longest only went 40.
Who can we blame for this? Well, nobody’s blameless here. The Bills pass defense was too good for the Colts to not run the ball. Their fill-in linebackers and small penetrating defensive linemen weren’t good enough to stop him. Frank Reich didn’t have to use him as much as he did this week -- there could have been more Nyheim Hines -- but there wasn’t.
What’s our takeaway? Jonathan Taylor is a 1A fantasy football back and should be treated as such. End of discussion.
Jeff Wilson disappointed in a smash spot against the Jaguars
How did this happen? With Elijah Mitchell held out on account of a broken finger, and the 49ers seemingly not trusting Trey Sermon with any real role, the fantasy community rallied behind third-down back Jeff Wilson to take the Generic 49ers Running Back In Smash Spot Mantle and crush the Jaguars. On the 49ers first drive, Wilson was wide-open in the end zone for a touchdown and Jimmy Garoppolo missed him, leading to a cowardly field goal. The 49ers quickly got out to a 20-3 lead, the exact game script that such a smash spot called for, and Wilson ... ran 19 times for 50 yards. He was fine.
George Kittle gets to the second level to make a block, Laken Tomlinson pulls in space to make a key block, Deebo Samuel eyes the hole and hits it FAST.
— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) November 22, 2021
Deebo’s having an all-time special season pic.twitter.com/R9eHcLSoEE
The 49ers’ leading rusher? Deebo Samuel. RB1. Their two actual running backs (Sermon got some small snap share and a lot of fourth-quarter time) combined to carry the ball 29 times for 82 yards.
Who can we blame for this? Mike McGlinchey is now on IR, but that seems like a lot of blame to place on one lineman in a scheme that’s generally been really good. I think what we might have to do is give some credit to the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Crowd boos.) I know, I know, we’ll get back to making fun of them soon enough. The Jaguars have a surprisingly good run defense DVOA this year, a -15.9% rate that ranked seventh heading into the game. They held Jonathan Taylor to merely 116 yards last week! And even when teams like Seattle have been able to crock pot them recently, they held the Seahawks to 2.8 yards per carry. Buffalo couldn’t run on them at all during Jacksonville’s upset win.
What’s our takeaway? The Jaguars might be a script-smash spot for your running backs, but that doesn’t mean you should expect them to dominate. The Jaguars are playing some physical football up front and are able to hold their own against the non-superlative backs. Oh, and Kyle Shanahan should give Sermon more of a chance, but he won’t do that, so that’s fine. Mitchell two-yard carries into traffic mixed with big gains in big holes for all, I suppose.
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Dak Prescott falls apart without Amari Cooper and Tyron Smith ... against the Chiefs
How did this happen? The warning beacon came up Friday when Amari Cooper landed on the COVID-19 list with a positive test, and on Sunday the Cowboys ruled out Tyron Smith in a transaction that would be dubbed a “big-picture move,” per Ian Rapoport. The Cowboys looked loaded last Sunday, but it all fell apart without Cooper. CeeDee Lamb‘s slot targets that he crushed on last week were taken away, and then he was concussed around halftime after coming down on the back of his helmet.
CHRIS JONES. FOUR SACKS. WHAT 🤯
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 22, 2021
📺: #DALvsKC on FOX pic.twitter.com/0CIiuYZI4q
Without difference-making weapons, Prescott had to hold the ball a little longer. Without better offensive line play, he was sacked by Chiefs All-World defender Chris Jones, finally playing inside on a plurality of his snaps, 3.5 times. The clip above is Jones going man-on-man against Zack Martin -- one of the best guards in the NFL for several years -- and just destroying him. Prescott was sacked five times total, an amount he hadn’t seen since the 2018 season. And this is against a Chiefs defense that was absolutely toast per many pundits after the first five games of the season. Prescott was an easy top-five quarterback in rankings this week for pretty much everybody. He delivered a no-touchdown, two-pick dud.
Who can we blame for this? The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs have not given up more than 27 points in a game since Week 5. Several of the points in their loss to Tennessee were given up with short fields on turnovers. Perhaps, unsexy as a conclusion as it is, it’s worth revisiting the idea that they are a bad defense. They seem to have started to figure some things out, and by figure some things out, I mean they’re getting turnovers more consistently and not getting completely torched in the passing game. Also, when quotes like “big-picture move,” start getting thrown around, maybe it’s time to consider how that’s not a great sign for your fantasy team this week.
What’s our takeaway? The Cowboys remain an elite offense, as they’ve been most of the last two years, but only when the entire picture is put together. Tyron Smith remains an extremely important player for this team, and the absences of Cooper and Lamb that are expected next week will continue to produce erratic results.
The Kansas City defense is gearing back up to make a title run and they’re good enough for the Chiefs to make a run-heavy, short-pass offense work. That’s probably also not great news for managers with Patrick Mahomes, but we’ll see what they can get figured out in that area over the bye week. They obviously have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL still and if there’s a way to buy low on that, you may want to look into it.
Elijah Moore is heating up for the Jets
How did this happen? We all had a good laugh about the Elijah Moore preseason hype train as the Jets set themselves on fire over the first three weeks of the season, and Moore’s concussion in Week 3 sent him back to being a part-time player instead of a starter. But since Moore re-entered the lineup and an injury banished Zach Wilson to the land of Reasonable Doubt, Moore’s been cooking. It doesn’t matter if it’s Mike White, Josh Johnson, or Joe Flacco. Moore has generated big plays and beat good cornerbacks. He had three touchdowns in his last two games entering today, and he broke out in a big way against the Dolphins for his first career 100-yard game.
Ladies and gentlemen, @e_moore03.#MIAvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/rSgVrv0qs3
— New York Jets (@nyjets) November 21, 2021
Everybody laughed when Joe Flacco was announced as the starter, but here we are -- the Jets were competitive against Miami and Moore had a sensational day, with eight grabs for 141 yards and a touchdown.
Who can we blame for this? Well, the injuries are what really muddied the situation around Moore this year. He missed time in training camp, then again with the concussion early in the season. So a positive way to put this -- we in the business call it a reframe -- is that you had many opportunities to buy low. That window just closed today. Even in a bad offense, on a bad team, Moore has been so good that he’s going to be hard to ignore.
What’s our takeaway? Let’s talk about Moore’s upcoming schedule: @HOU, vs. PHI, vs. NO, @ MIA, vs. JAX, vs. TB. There are six games here in which only the Eagles one can legitimately be called a tough passing game matchup. I’m scared of Zach Wilson being reinserted at some point because this season is dead for the Jets, but as long as they are playing the quarterbacks who have actually proved decent this year, Moore has a chance to be a WR2 over this last stretch of the season. You may want to look up who picked him up on waivers if your redraft league’s trade deadline hasn’t hit yet, because chances are the eau de Jets may create an opportunity to acquire a piece that’ll put your team over the top.