Welcome to the Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
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Bengals at Chiefs, 3:00 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bengals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23.75
The Bengals have two defining features on offense: an extraordinarily talented quarterback with elite weapons... and extremely weak pass blocking.
The Bengals let up nine sacks against the Titans, and their offensive line ranks 25th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades. The other three Conference Championship teams rank first (Rams), sixth (Chiefs), and seventh (49ers) in pass blocking grade.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow ranks fifth in EPA* per play and first in completion percentage over expected (CPOE). In other words, Burrow has produced elite efficiency and been the most accurate quarterback in the league, despite a bottom 10 offensive line.
In fairness to the Bengals’ offensive lineman, we should discuss Burrow’s share of the blame in allowing pressure. Sacks and pressures are a quarterback stat to some extent. For example, PFF charged Tyler Huntley with allowing a league-high 42% of the pressures he saw this season. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill was responsible for a league-low 4% of his pressures. Clearly, we need to factor in a considerable amount of quarterback responsibility.
However, Burrow isn’t a big offender. Including last week, he’s responsible for 11% of the pressure he’s faced this season, which ranks 11th, ahead of every divisional round quarterback except Tannehill, Brady, and Matthew Stafford.
Burrow also ranks ninth in time to throw this season. Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Brady were the only divisional round quarterbacks with a quicker time to throw. Burrow was also second in time to throw in the divisional round, behind only Tom Brady.
To be fair, Burrow had a down game in allowing pressure against the Titans. He was responsible for 27% of the pressures he faced and two of his nine sacks. But Burrow is not typically a quarterback who creates huge problems for himself. In fact, against the Chiefs in Week 17, Burrow was responsible for 0% of the pressures he faced.
All this to say... if Burrow can get adequate protection in this game, he’ll likely make the most of it. And although the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t great, Burrow sometimes does get adequate protection—he only ranks 21st in pressures per dropback this season.
The Chiefs have a solid pass rush, ranking 10th in pressure rate. But they ran hot against the Bengals in Week 17, generating pressure on 55% of pass-rush snaps, well above their season long rate of 47%, and above the Bills’ league-leading 54% rate this season. The Chiefs rank 20th in pass-rush grade. They’ve had their moments, but they’re an underdog to generate pressure against Burrow like they did in their first meeting.
And, of course, Burrow was excellent the last time he faced Kansas City. This is partly because Burrow is excellent against pressure. He ranks second in yards per attempt and first in passer rating under pressure. He may take an extra sack or two, but he’s otherwise incredible when hurried.
The last time he faced the Chiefs, Burrow also had the advantage of a pass-heavy game plan, which at the time was uncharacteristic for the Bengals. The Bengals posted a 14% pass rate over expected in Week 17, their second-highest rate of the season. In the playoffs, they’ve stuck with this pass-centric approach, delivering back-to-back pass-heavy game plans.
CIN has had 6 games with a PROE over +1.5% this season:
— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) January 24, 2022
Week 7 - 9.6%
Week 8 - 11.6%
Week 16 - 15.1%
Week 17 - 14.5%
Week 19 (wc) - 5.6%
Week 20 (div) - 8.8%
Expecting them to remain aggressive against KC.
cc @PatKerrane
The Bengals were also more aggressive on 1st-and-10 against the Chiefs than they’ve been all season, with a 22% PROE. They’re now at 5% or higher in Burrow’s last four games after topping 1% just once before Week 16.
The only reason for the Bengals to go run-heavy here would be to protect Burrow from the Chiefs’ pass rush. But given that he’s likely already seen them at their best, it would be a real surprise if the Bengals don’t build their game plan around the passing game.
Ja’Marr Chase was held somewhat in check against the Titans and “only” went 5-109 on six targets. Chase delivered an elite 2.37 yards per route run in the divisional round, yet his outing felt a bit disappointing. And Chase was held to an 18% target share and a 3.7 aDOT, meaning most of his production came on schemed targets. Chase delivered with 18.2 yards per target. It’s nearly impossible to fully remove him from the Bengals’ attack, and he’ll likely be back to his deep threat aDOT this week.
Tee Higgins led the way with a 26% target share and 50% air yard share against the Titans. Higgins has a 22% target rate to Chase’s 21% for the season. So it shouldn’t be a surprise if he leads in targets again this week. Higgins has typically run fewer routes than Chase this season, but he and Chase both ran routes on 98% of dropbacks against the Titans. Chase is still a favorite to run more routes than Higgins against the Chiefs, but it’s possible they’re even again.
Chase’s mix of deep targets and schemed touches continue to make him the more intriguing fantasy option. But Higgins’ 22% target rate with his 12.0 aDOT makes him a very high ceiling option when passing volume balloons.
Tyler Boyd saw just two targets against the Titans and has a 16% target rate this season. He’s well behind Higgins (22%) and Chase (21%), but he’s also behind Joe Mixon (17%) and Samaje Perine (18%) and is barely ahead of C.J. Uzomah (14%).
Boyd is in a bit of a tough spot. He’s playing with two high-end downfield targets and is competing with the running backs and tight end for check down targets. Nevertheless, Boyd has an 88% route rate and ran a route on 96% of dropbacks against the Titans, so he should be a true full-time player against the Chiefs. With 1.45 YPRR, he has a path to a ceiling game, but he could also be a non-factor even in a solid outing for the offense.
C.J. Uzomah is up to a 79% route rate after running a route on 89% of dropbacks against the Titans. His 1.17 YPRR is very poor, but over Burrow’s last four games, he has a solidly mediocre 1.39 YPRR and an above-average 18% target rate. He’s firmly in play.
Joe Mixon had a 72% route rate against the Titans and a strong 18.3 expected points workload. Weirdly, his route rate was down to 51% after topping 60% in his previous three games.
Samaje Perine mixed in for his usual snaps, and his receiving “highlight” was a pass that clanged off his hands for an interception. He’s not a threat as a receiver. But Perine was in for 15 pass-blocking snaps to Mixon’s 10. If the Bengals struggle to protect Burrow again, they will likely keep the back in to protect more often, which would ding Mixon’s value. Even still, Mixon looks like the best bet to lead all running backs this week in expected points. Although, he’s not a clear favorite, as we’ll get to.
But workload isn’t Mixon’s only draw. He also has a strong rushing matchup. The Chiefs rank 18th in EPA allowed per rush and 18th in run defense grade. Mixon is this week’s clear RB1 play.
*(Expected Points Added, EPA, is an efficiency metric that calculates the expected points of a game situation compared to the previous play. This measures how much each play added or subtracted from a team’s point expectation. I exclude garbage time for all EPA data in this article and used adjusted EPA per play, which caps the penalty for negative plays. Data courtesy of rbsdm.com)
Chiefs Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 30.75
I spend a decent amount of time discussing pass funnel and run funnel defenses in this column... but there’s only one true funnel defense left: the Bengals. The Bengals are a pass funnel, although not a massive one. Bengals opponents are averaging a 2% pass rate over expected and shifting 3% to the pass.
From an ordinary offense, we’d expect a slight shift to the pass in this matchup, but the Chiefs aren’t an average offense. Outside of going run-heavy in an easy win over the Steelers in Week 16, the Chiefs have been pass-first every week this season. And in their more meaningful rematch with the Steelers in the Wild Card round, they dropped an 11% PROE on the run-funnel defense.
The Chiefs aren’t just a pass-first team; they’re decidedly pass-heavy. They lead the NFL with a 10% pass rate over expected and have posted an 8% PROE or higher in 16 of 19 games. It’s possible the Chiefs are run-first this week in an alternate universe where they selected Jonathan Taylor over Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but on this plane of existence, we’re going to see Patrick Mahomes dropping back frequently.
The Chiefs are so pass-heavy that it will be difficult to tell how much effect the Bengals’ defense ends up having on their offensive approach. For example, the Chiefs had an 11% PROE against them in Week 17, which would be extremely for most teams, but barely registers as a shift for the Chiefs. Still, the Bengals’ pass funnel reduces the chances of an odd, run-first game script popping up. The Chiefs are a soft lock to spend their time attacking a middling Bengals pass defense that ranks 15th in EPA allowed per dropback, 25th in pass-rush grade, and 12th in coverage grade.
You don’t need to hear this after last week... but Patrick Mahomes is wildly good. Mahomes ranks third in EPA per play this season and seventh in CPOE. And his improbable comeback has me reevaluating whether I should be excluding “garbage time” from these metrics for Mahomes going forward.
Last week I noted how Tyreek Hill was struggling with efficiency, hiding his extremely valuable target profile. Hill hasn’t been used as a pure deep threat this season, but his target share is elite. With Mahomes playing lights out, Hill also turned in a vintage performance, going 11-150-1 on 12 targets. Hill had an elite 12.5 YPT and delivered his big day in the same role he’s had all season. Hill had a 30% target share but an aDOT of just 5.3. With an aDOT of 10.5 this season, it’s not like Hill doesn’t see deep targets, but the Chiefs feed him the ball on shorter routes when deep shots aren’t working. All things equal, we’d prefer Hill to have more success downfield, but he has an elite 2.17 YPRR that is fully supported by his target profile. He will be involved no matter how the Bengals cover him, and he still has upside to connect with Mahomes deep.
Travis Kelce was the hero against the Bills, with a 21% target rate and a 7.7 aDOT; he’s a very strong tight end option. Still, I’ve been pointing out that Kelce is struggling to earn downfield targets... when actually covered... but the shootout potential here makes that less of a concern. Kelce is more of a volume-based option than he used to be, but there should be plenty of passing volume this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was back on the field against the Bills, but Jerick McKinnon continued to be the Chiefs’ third option in the passing game. McKinnon ran a route on 72% of dropbacks and had an 18% target share a week after posting a 74% route rate and a 16% target share. McKinnon also played on 70% of snaps to just 30% for Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon only had 10 rushing attempts to Edwards-Helaire’s seven, but he led 7-to-2 in targets. McKinnon had a total workload of 17.4 expected points, which ranked fifth on the week, just behind Joe Mixon (18.3) and ahead of Devin Singletary (15.7), Derrick Henry (13.1), and Elijah Mitchell (11.5). He looks like, at worst, the 1A in the backfield this week.
Edwards-Helaire had a 21% route rate, which isn’t terrible given his 30% snap rate. But last week clearly demonstrated that he will be behind McKinnon in pass-heavy scripts. Still, the Chiefs could pull ahead in this game as 7 point favorites. If they do, Edwards-Helaire would presumably be the back they lean on to salt away the game. Going against a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in EPA allowed per rush and 22nd in run defense grade, Edwards-Helaire has some appeal as a TD-dependent dart throw.
49ers at Rams, 6:30 PM Eastern, Sunday
49ers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21
Jimmy Garoppolo continues to rate well in EPA per play, and it continues to confound me.
The best case against advanced metrics is that Garopplo rates pretty well in them
— Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane) January 23, 2022
Garoppolo ranks seventh in EPA per play, and I’m begging the algorithm to watch the tape. But the advanced stats aren’t entirely blind to what most of us see when Jimmy drops back. He rates 14th in CPOE, well behind Burrow (first) and Mahomes (seventh) and behind luminaries like Teddy Bridgewater and Taylor Heinicke—although he does rank ahead of Matthew Stafford, as we’ll get to.
Garoppolo has also produced negative EPA per play in the playoffs, with all plays included. So even with his team delivering two road playoff upsets, the 49ers are helping him more than he’s helping them.
The 49ers win with Jimmy G, not because of Jimmy G. It’s as simple as that.
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) January 25, 2022
I’m not saying anything that Kyle Shanahan isn’t fully aware of. When you believe in your quarterback... this isn’t your game plan:
Compare this to the Bengals, who clearly view Burrow as their best path to a Super Bowl victory, despite dabbling with a run-heavy approach in the regular season.
The 49ers had a -7% pass rate over expected in the regular season, which was already extremely run-heavy. They’ve doubled down in the playoffs.
The 49ers are also slowing down. In the regular season, they ranked 29th in play clock remaining, with an average of 8.4 seconds remaining on the play clock at the snap. They’ve slowed down even further in the playoffs, with an average of 7.0 seconds remaining on the play clock, which puts them in among the true plodders of 2021, the Colts and Packers.
So the 49ers are doing everything they can to hide Garoppolo in their playoff run, and it’s hard to see that changing. First, it’s working; they just upset the Cowboys and Packers at home. Second, they’re facing a Rams defense that ranks third in EPA per play, first in pass-rush grade, and 10th in coverage grade. This isn’t a matchup where Shanahan will let Garoppolo sling it unless he absolutely has to.
One of Garoppolo’s biggest strengths as a quarterback is that he’s genuinely excellent against the blitz. He ranks second in yards per attempt and sixth in passer rating against the blitz. And the Rams have been willing to blitz Garoppolo. They rank ninth with a 29% blitz rate in non-49ers games season and have held steady at a 29% blitz rate in their two matchups with Garoppolo. So while the Rams will have to push the 49ers off-script for us to get any volume out of this passing game, Garoppolo could silence the haters by beating the Rams’ blitz in comeback mode.
Comeback mode looks like the only way we’ll see a massive game from George Kittle. Kittle led the 49ers with an 88% route rate against the Cowboys, then jumped to 96% against the Packers. Kittle also had a 35% target share and a 66% air yard share in Green Bay. He’s a true WR1 with tight end eligibility. But Kittle went 4-63 on six targets against the Packers... it was hardly a spike week. He has an elite 2.30 YPRR this season and is running routes at an alpha wide receiver rate. The 49ers will resist an up-tempo pass-heavy environment, but Kittle would be the biggest beneficiary of that script.
Brandon Aiyuk would also benefit from increased volume, even though he can’t be expected to do as much with it. Aiyuk has a respectable 1.67 YPRR and provides the 49ers with a deep threat of sorts with a 10.3 aDOT, the deepest on the team. His most likely positive outcome is a low target day where he hits a few plays downfield.
Deebo Samuel limped off Lambeau field after taking a helmet to the knee, but he should be a full-go against the Rams. Samuel saw 12 backfield snaps against the Packers, his fourth straight game with 10+ backfield snaps; his hybrid role should be expected to continue here.
Samuel still ran a route on 83% of snaps, but he only had a workload of 11.3 expected points, after a workload of just 10.3 expected points against the Cowboys. Samuel’s backfield usage keeps him involved in all scripts, but it also sacrifices more valuable downfield targets for less valuable backfield touches. Samuel regularly turns those “less valuable” touches into scintillating TDs, but he could have trouble doing so against a Rams defense that ranks 12th in EPA allowed per rush and first in run defense grade. Although, the Rams haven’t slowed Samuel down so far. He delivered 5-36-1 as a rusher in Week 10 and 8-45-1 in Week 18. Still, Samuel is probably best off if this game starts as a back and forth battle and then kicks into a higher gear, where he can operate as a more typical wide receiver.
Over Samuel’s four-game stint and true hybrid player, Elijah Mitchell has 13.7 expected points per game. He’s performed perfectly in line with his opportunity, with 13.8 PRR points per game. That workload makes him a TD-dependent RB2 type play, despite a tough matchup.
Rams Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.5
Including the playoffs and excluding garbage time, Matthew Stafford now leads the league in EPA per play. But he ranks just 19th in CPOE, behind every playoff quarterback except Jalen Hurts and Ben Roethlisberger, and even more concerningly... behind Jared Goff. Stafford’s inaccuracy has created a Rams offense that is more volatile than ideal and has also led to some very negative plays.
Still, the Rams were pass-heavy against the Buccaneers. It wasn’t lost on them that the Buccaneers were 2021’s premier pass funnel, and they posted a 5% pass rate over expected. Stafford turned in the type of efficiency that wouldn’t have been out of place in the Bills-Chiefs shootout.
Stafford has been impressively efficient all season, but Stafford’s inaccuracy is likely a factor in the Rams’ larger trend towards a 49ers-esque offensive approach.
The Rams didn’t ignore the matchup in Tampa Bay, but they continued to move their offense in a more conservative direction. Before their Week 11 bye, the Rams ranked 10th in play clock remaining, with an average of 9.7 seconds. For the rest of the regular season, they ranked 27th at 8.3 seconds. They’ve gotten even slower in the playoffs, at just 6.5 seconds. We’ve seen the same trend when the Rams are playing with a lead. Pre-bye they ranked 17th when winning, with 8.9 seconds remaining. They then dropped to 28th, at 7.7 seconds, to close the regular season. And they’ve been at just 6.1 seconds in the playoffs. This slowdown has represented a transformation in offensive philosophy. The pre-bye Rams played like the Cardinals from ahead. The playoff Rams are trying to salt away leads like the Colts.
This approach matches the PROE signal we’ve seen from the Rams in the back half of the season, which shows them shifting to a run-heavy team. They hit the pause button against the Buccaneers, but the trend remains clear.
The 49ers allow teams to choose their method of attack. They rank 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, and their secondary is exploitable, ranking 13th in coverage grade. But the 49ers excel at getting to the quarterback, ranking third in pass-rush grade, fourth in pressure rate, and seventh in quick pressure rate (2.5 seconds or less). The 49ers can also generate pressure without blitzing, ranking 25th in blitz rate. Passing on the 49ers is a viable option, but it comes with risks.
Meanwhile, the 49ers rank first in EPA allowed per rush and sixth in run defense grade. They are a strong run defense, but some teams still prefer to challenge them on the ground to avoid their pass rush.
In their first meeting, the Rams went pass-heavy against the 49ers with a 15% PROE on 1st-and-10 and a 9% PROE overall. The Rams lost 31-10 heading into their bye, which may have directly contributed to their altered philosophy in the second half of the season.
The Rams took a completely different approach in the rematch, with a -14% PROE on 1st-and-10 and a -8% PROE overall. They also played very slowly, averaging 7.2 seconds remaining on the play clock. That almost worked, with the Rams losing 27-24 in overtime. As much as I would love to see the Rams push the 49ers off-script and into shootout mode, where the Rams would have an advantage, they appear more likely to play it run-first and slow.
Then again, the Rams should be more afraid of delivering the 49ers their ideal game script than dealing with the 49ers’ pass rush. Stafford ranks fourth in YPA and first in passer rating against the blitz. The 49ers have shown a bit of respect here. They have a 22% blitz rate in non-Rams games, which ranks 25th, but they’ve blitzed Stafford at just a 14% rate in their two meetings. For context, the Raiders were the only team with a blitz rate (10%) below 18% this season. And even if the 49ers are getting to Stafford with four defenders, he ranks first in YPA and sixth in passer rating when pressured.
This is a highly intriguing matchup because everything we’ve seen from the Rams recently suggests that they’ll play conservatively here. But Stafford’s ability to handle pressure and the 49ers’ desire to hide Garoppolo on the other side creates an opening for the Rams to push the 49ers out of their comfort zone and into a shootout script where they would have a distinct advantage... as long as Stafford avoids a meltdown. I don’t expect them to play that way, but that possibility adds a bit of upside to their passing game.
Cooper Kupp continues to be utterly dominant on a per-route basis. He delivered 4.46 YPRR against the Buccaneers, producing 9-183-1 on 11 targets. With 3.19 YPRR this season, he can deliver big weeks even if the Rams have a limited passing offense. If they attack the 49ers aggressively, he has a massive ceiling.
Odell Beckham is finally connecting with Matthew Stafford in the playoffs, with an 11.2 YPT. Beckham also has a 20% target rate in the playoffs and was back to a 93% route rate in Tampa Bay after dropping to 77% against the Cardinals; his role in the offense appears secure.
Beckham is still underperforming since joining the Rams, with a 7.6 YPT. But he again played more of a shallow-intermediate role against the Buccaneers with an 8.7 aDOT. After a deep threat 13.9 aDOT with the Rams in the regular season, Beckham has a 9.0 aDOT in the playoffs. This role looks like a much better fit for him—and with his routes no longer in question—Beckham looks like a significantly better bet than Van Jefferson if there’s any volume in this passing offense.
Jefferson has a 15% target rate and a mediocre-poor 1.42 YPRR. With Beckham no longer in a deep threat role, Jefferson is the clear downfield threat, making him an interesting dart throw in a low volume passing environment.
Tyler Higbee has just 1.18 YPRR, but he’s up to 1.67 in the playoffs and is at 1.84 over his last four games. He’s still primarily a bet on a TD, but he could also rack up catches if the Rams go pass-heavy.
The 49ers pass rush isn’t the only reason the Rams could limit passing volume this week. They’re also clearly very excited about Cam Akers’ return.
Akers played 81% of snaps against the Buccaneers, up from 53% against Cardinals and just 20% in Week 18 against the 49ers. Akers recovering from a summer Achilles tear to become an 80%+ workhorse back by the Divisional round feels like a 0.1% outcome; it’s genuinely the most improbable and impressive recovery from a football injury that I’ve ever seen.
Akers was also up to a 59% route rate after posting a 45% route rate against the Cardinals. Sony Michel maintained a pass-catching role, with 11 routes on 14 snaps, but Akers still had an impressive workload.
Akers didn’t get much going against a strong Buccaneers run defense, producing just 9.8 PPR points. But he had 23.8 expected points, which led the week. Akers looks like a slight underdog to Joe Mixon for the biggest workload of the week. But he has a much more difficult matchup and profiles as a high-end RB2 type play.
Sources
To write this article, I relied on the following stats, metrics, and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
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- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
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- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
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- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
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- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
