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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
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Raiders at Bengals, 4:30 PM Eastern, Saturday
Raiders Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21.25
Derek Carr had an impressive 2021 season, ranking 12th in EPA* per play (which measures efficiency) and 10th in CPOE (which measures accuracy). Like most non-Raiders fans, I would have strongly preferred to see Justin Herbert in the playoffs instead of Carr... but that’s a bit unfair to Carr, who ranks just one spot behind Herbert in efficiency. Carr was also significantly more accurate than Herbert this season.
Carr now gets a rematch with a Bengals team that trounced the Raiders 32-13 in Week 11. The Bengals have a competent defense that ranks 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, 26th in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush grade, and 11th in coverage grade. But Carr struggled against them in Week 11, ranking 19th in EPA per play.
Carr’s play has been relatively steady all season, but it is notable that against the Bengals, he attempted 20+ yard passes at just an 11% rate and had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.4. This was part of a larger trend for Carr in the second half of the season.
From Weeks 1-7, Carr had a 16% deep pass rate and a 9.2 aDOT. Carr ranked fourth in deep pass rate and eighth in aDOT. But after Week 7, Carr no longer had Henry Ruggs to throw to. His deep pass rate dropped to 10% (QB22) for the rest of the season, and his aDOT dropped to 7.8 (QB24).
It’s easy to understand why Carr has stopped throwing deep; the Raiders cannot challenge downfield the way they could with Ruggs. From Weeks 1-7, Carr ranked QB13 in adjusted completion percentage on 20+ yard passes; he’s down to QB29 since. Without Ruggs, he’s been worse than Ben Roethlisberger on deep throws.
As Carr has pivoted to the short passing game, he’s grown more reliant on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow peaked at a 25% target share in Weeks 1-7 but hit 27%+ four times in his last 10 games.
Interestingly, Renfrow had 1.94 yards per route run in Weeks 1-7, and he’s had an identical 1.94 YPRR in the 10 games since. The big shift for Renfrow has been an increase in his routes per dropback.
Renfrow spiked to a 95% route rate in Darren Waller‘s first missed game with his knee injury, and Renfrow had a 96% route rate the following week. The Raiders operated out of 11 personnel (3WR, 1TE, 1RB) on 89% of their snaps across both games. They also played without a tight end on 7% of their snaps. And they ran 2TEs sets on just two total plays in the two games. This did not work. The Raiders lost 17-15 to Washington and 48-9 to the Chiefs.
In Week 15, the Raiders made a shift. They ran 11 personnel on just 63% of their snaps. And their use of 2TE sets jumped from 2% to 27%, which matches their 2TE rate before Waller’s knee injury. With Waller back in the lineup in Week 18, the Raiders ran 2TE sets on 31% of snaps. And... they ran 3TE sets on an additional 11% of snaps. Meanwhile, their use of 11 personnel dropped to 55%.
The Raiders also adjusted their approach to the pass. They had an 8% pass rate over expected against Washington and 7% against Chiefs. But they’ve since posted rates of -1%, -8%, -7%, and 5%. They aren’t allergic to passing the ball, but their shift toward big personnel has predictably coincided with a shift to power football.
So what does this all mean? The story I see is that after losing Waller to a knee injury, the Raiders experimented with deprioritizing the tight end position and leaning on a 3WR passing game plan. This was a failed experiment. In the four games that followed, the Raiders played 2TE sets at the same rate as when Waller was in the lineup. Moreover, with Waller back—and with blocking tight end Derek Carrier back from a torn pectoral—the Raiders leaned into their heavy personnel identity even further.
The fallout here is pretty straightforward for Renfrow. The Raiders have been less focused on the pass recently, which is bad news for a volume receiver. Renfrow is also primarily a slot receiver and is dependent on a high rate of 3WR sets. With the Raiders shifting away from that personnel grouping, he is highly unlikely to hit a 90%+ route rate this week. In turn, he’s unlikely to hit 10+ targets, having only done so in Weeks 13 and 14 this year. Renfrow has four TDs over the last five weeks, so he’s certainly in play for fantasy, but he’s more TD-dependent than it may appear.
Meanwhile, Waller returned to find an offense that is somehow even more dependent on the tight end than before he was knocked out of the lineup. Waller ran a route on 93% of dropbacks in his return and is set to operate as the Raiders’ defacto WR1. Waller managed just 22 yards on eight targets against the Chargers and may not be fully healthy... but he’s been able to practice this week and carries quite a bit of upside given his 23% target rate this season, on what is sure to be a full-time role.
In their four-game winning streak, Zay Jones has operated as the Raiders WR1. He has just 1.38 YPRR this season but leads the team with 2.03 since Week 15. Jones also has a 26% target rate over his last four games, which is very strong for his 12.2 aDOT. In other words, Jones’ increased per-route efficiency has been driven by increased target volume, which is a fairly stable metric. His increased role in the offense makes him a very intriguing DFS dart throw.
The Raiders’ shift to 2TE and 3TE sets has been both good and bad for Josh Jacobs. He averaged just 11 carries in Weeks 13-14 and is up to 21 since. But Jacobs had a 19% target share in the Raiders’ 3WR experimental phase; he’s since dropped to 10%. As a result, his workload has held steady overall. Jacobs had 18.3 expected points per game in Weeks 13-14 and is at 18.4 since. His workload has been exactly the same; he’s just getting there differently. But his steady role in an offense that drastically shifted its approach is a very positive sign. This week, Jacobs should be a key piece of the Raiders’ play calling regardless of script.
*(Expected Points Added, EPA, is an efficiency metric that calculates the expected points of a game situation compared to the previous play. This measures how much each play added or subtracted from a team’s point expectation. I exclude garbage time for all EPA data in this article and used adjusted EPA per play, which caps the penalty for negative plays. Data courtesy of rbsdm.com)
Bengals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.75
Joe Burrow went absolutely nuts to close the season and finished the year ranked second in EPA per play and in a three-way tie with Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray for first in CPOE. He’s playing incredible football.
Burrow now gets a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, fifth in pass rush grade, and 15th in coverage grade. The Raiders are an exploitable pass defense, but they’re not terrible.
When Burrow faced the Raiders in Week 11, he finished 13th in EPA per play. Although, the Bengals’ 32-13 win allowed the Bengals to lean on the ground game in a major way and Burrow only threw for 148 yards and one TD.
Even accounting for their positive game script against the Raiders, the Bengals were run-heavy in Week 11, with a -3% pass rate over expected. And their clash with the Raiders was part of a six-game stretch where the Bengals were run-first. That streak was snapped with Burrow’s 525-4 passing performance against Baltimore when the Bengals posted a 15% PROE. Burrow closed his season with a 446-4 day against the Chiefs, with the offense hitting a 14% PROE.
This week’s critical question is if the Bengals embrace the pass-heavy approach that helped them knock off the Chiefs or if they revert to a run-first approach against a defense that has encouraged that all season.
Raiders opponents are averaging a -4% PROE and are shifting 4% to the run against them, making them the biggest run-funnel in the playoffs. The Raiders rank 26th in run defense grade, and the Bengals will probably succeed if they play the matchup.
When Joe Mixon faced the Raiders in Week 11, he logged a season-high 30 carries for 123 yards and two TDs. His 19.5 expected points were the third-highest of the week. Mixon has averaged 16.6 expected points per game this season, so the Bengals’ play calling against the Raiders definitely provided him with a boost. Still, it’s not like Mixon disappears in pass-heavy game scripts. He crushed against Baltimore with 31.5 PPR points and was usable against the Chiefs with 15.6. He also averaged 7.0 targets in Burrow’s two-game passing explosion.
Mixon’s biggest duds have instead come when the Bengals attempt to go run-heavy and botch it. Mixon’s only three games under 10 PPR points were in run-first slogs against the Bears, Broncos, and 49ers. Embarrassingly, two of those games were losses. Mixon is better off when the Bengals go pass-first because that’s when the offense as a whole gets humming.
Ja’Marr Chase has 2.51 YPRR and had an otherwordly rookie season. He, of course, ran hot with an 11.8 YPT, which is well above expected for his 13.6 aDOT. But Chase has a 23% target share and a 38% air yard share. He is both a deep threat and his team’s No. 1 wide receiver, one of the highest upside profiles in football.
Tee Higgins... is somehow also his team’s No. 1 receiver. He bests Chase with a 24% target share and trails him slightly with a 34% air yard share. He has been targeted more shallowly than Chase, but his 12.2 aDOT still provides plenty of upside and is higher than excellent downfield receivers like Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs this season. Higgins has an elite 2.26 YPRR and has a 40+ point game to his name this season. The path to a massive ceiling game is probably slightly more difficult for Higgins than Chase, but he is still a very high ceiling option.
Tyler Boyd has 1.58 YPRR and has continued to be an underneath option with an 8.0 aDOT. He can hit big games, but that will usually be in environments where one of Higgins or Chase is also going off.
Patriots at Bills, 8:15 PM Eastern, Saturday
Patriots Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19.75
Mac Jones ultimately had a very impressive rookie season, ranking 17th in EPA per play and sixth in CPOE. He was more accurate than every playoff quarterback except Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Ryan Tannehill; impressive for a rookie.
But Jones didn’t close out the season the way he was hoping. Three of his four least efficient games of the year were in Weeks 15-17, and he had his second-worst outing against the Dolphins.
Jones ultimately struggled against the Dolphins’ blitz. He was blitzed at the ninth highest rate in Week 18 and ranked 21st in passer rating against the blitz. The Bills are middle of the road in blitz rate, but they did bring extra defenders a slightly higher rate against the Patriots in their two matchups. And more importantly, the Bills can generate pressure without blitzing. They rank sixth in pressure rate and second in quick pressure rate (pressures in 2.5 seconds). Mac Jones has just a 5.9 YPA under pressure this year. He hasn’t totally melted down, but pressure certainly removes some efficiency from the Patriots’ passing offense.
And when Jones actually had to drop back against the Bills in Week 16, it didn’t go great. Jones finished 24th in EPA per play on the week and 28th in CPOE.
It should be no surprise then that the Patriots have been extremely run-heavy against the Bills in both of their games. In Week 13, they posted a ridiculous -57% PROE that has skewed my run funnel data on the Bills ever since. They followed up with a -8% PROE, which is obviously... much higher... but still below their -5% season long rate. The Patriots have shifted to a pure run-heavy approach in both of their previous matchups with the Bills. I expect them to do so again here.
Damien Harris is the most reliable Patriots skill player. The fact that he hasn’t played 50%+ snaps since Week 8 tells you the state of the fantasy landscape in New England; Harris does have some upside if the Patriots can control this game, though. Harris has eight TDs over his last five games and will likely be the key to a Patriots win in they pull out the upset. He’s also a higher ceiling play than anyone in the receiving game.
Kendrick Bourne somehow leads the Patriots in YPRR, which sums up why no one is excited to play this passing game. Bourne has an impressive 1.99 YPRR but his 11.9 YPT is absurdly unsustainable for his shallow 8.3 aDOT. And Bourne has only run a route on 69% of dropbacks and isn’t a full-time player. But to play Jakobi Meyers—the Patriots’ true No. 1 receiver—you have to get past the fact that he’ll probably boringly underperform on solid target volume... while Bourne makes defenders look silly on one cool big play before disappearing again. Meyers has a very strong 23% target rate. If he ever gets a connection going with Jones, he has legitimate upside with a 9.9 aDOT.
Hunter Henry doesn’t run enough routes to make him a comfortable play, but with a 70% route rate, he’s in the mix. He also leads the Patriots with nine TDs and has a pretty strong 18% target rate. With a 10.6 aDOT, he profiles like the Patriots version of Mike Gesicki, but with more TD equity.
Bills Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.25
Josh Allen finished the season ranked 14th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. His skill set is ideal for fantasy, but it has also somewhat obscured that Allen had a fairly mediocre season.
Allen played poorly the first time he faced the Patriots, ranking 21st in EPA per play. However, that was in extremely windy conditions, and he was much better in their rematch. Allen ranked sixth in EPA per play in Week 16 and led all quarterbacks in plays on the week.
And while Allen’s rushing ability may overstate his real-world impact compared to his fantasy impact, his efficiency probably understates his real-world impact. Allen logged 647 plays this season outside of garbage time, an average of 38 plays per game. Justin Herbert was the next closest at 37.5, and Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are tied for third at 35.4. Aaron Rodgers, the most efficient quarterback in the league, averaged just 31.4 competitive plays per game. Allen’s ability to play moderately efficiently at league high volume has still been a major asset for the Bills, even though his 2021 efficiency was well below his 2020 levels when he ranked fourth in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE.
Allen now gets a third crack at a Patriots defense that ranks 16th in EPA allowed per dropback, 20th in pass rush grade, and second in coverage grade. They aren’t an elite unit, but they’ve been good enough in coverage that teams have generally preferred to attack on the ground.
The Patriots rank 16th in EPA allowed per rush and eighth in run defense grade. They’re competent against the run, but Patriots opponents have shifted 3% to the run against them, and they’re firmly a run funnel.
The Bills had a 5% PROE this season, which ranked behind only the Chiefs and Buccaneers. But Week 17-18 against the Falcons and Jets, they didn’t go all out, posting rates of -6% and 2% to close out their season. The Bills did go all out the last time they played the Patriots, with a 17% PROE. In Week 13, the Bills played to the Patriots’ run funnel with a -3% PROE and lost a game in which their opponent dropped back just three times. So the Bills have played the Patriots both run-heavy and pass-heavy; they liked the results a lot better in the pass-heavy environment.
Stefon Diggs ultimately had a disappointing second season in Buffalo. He posted 1.91 YPRR, which is good but not elite, and he finished with a legitimately bad 7.8 YPT. Diggs has been targeted on 25% of his routes and gets downfield looks, with an 11.9 aDOT. He left a lot of meat on the bone this year. But he has a chance to redeem himself in the Bills’ playoff run. Diggs’ talent isn’t in question. If he runs hotter in per-target efficiency, which is highly volatile, he could have the game we waited in vain for every Sunday.
With Emmanuel Sanders back, it’s much harder to parse the Bills’ secondary receivers. Sanders has just 1.23 YPRR this year and has been thoroughly outplayed by Gabriel Davis, who has 1.62 YPRR and an 18% target rate to Sanders’ 13%. Davis led the team in routes in Week 18, and I would prefer to bet on him than Sanders. Sanders could ultimately have a much larger role, but I have real doubts that he’ll do anything with it.
In his last two games, Cole Beasley has had a 70% route rate or lower, and Dawson Knox looks like a strong bet to run more routes. While not technically playing the same position, Knox has a 7.7 aDOT and looks like the more interesting underneath option. Knox has a very strong 80% route rate this season and continues to remind me of Logan Thomas’ 2020 profile.
Devin Singletary has a snap rate of 69% or better in each of his last five games and has topped 80% three times. He’s is a true workhorse back. The issue is that the Bills’ backfield doesn’t hold an enormous amount of value overall. Since Week 14, Singletary ranks RB11 in expected points per game, despite having a total lock on touches. Still, Singletary can easily spike in a single week if the TDs simply go his way. He looks like a high-end RB2 type play.
Eagles at Buccaneers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Eagles Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 18.5
Jalen Hurts finished the season ranked 21st in EPA per play and 25th in CPOE. He finished just one spot behind Lamar Jackson in EPA per play; he was just behind Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford in CPOE.
Still, Hurts is fundamentally an inaccurate quarterback with mediocre efficiency. His rushing ability makes him highly viable for fantasy, but his efficiency has a downward pull on Eagles’ skill players.
Hurts also appears to have created a downward pull on the Eagles’ offensive philosophy. They began the season by literally setting records for the fewest running back rushing attempts in franchise history and ended it as a ground and pound attack.
(Week 18 excluded)
Fittingly, the Eagles began their shift to the run when they faced the Buccaneers in Week 6. Against a massive Buccaneers defense that saw opponents shift 9% to the pass this season, the Eagles posted a 1% PROE. This is quite a bit higher than where they ultimately ended up for the year (-5%); but for a team who was coming off 21%, 12%, and 6% outings, a drop to a 1% PROE against the league’s biggest pass funnel signaled a change in philosophy. It was was the last time the Eagles posted a positive PROE all season.
Given that the Eagles started their new playstyle against this defense, they seem likely to continue a run-first approach in the rematch. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see a shift to the pass. New Orleans, a more run-heavy team than the Eagles, most recently posted a -4% PROE against the Buccaneers in their 9-0 win, which was a slight shift to the pass.
The Eagles played the Buccaneers with a balanced approach in Week 6. At the time, we found that shocking... because they didn’t air it out. They’ll likely be close to balanced again this week, which could feel shockingly pass-heavy.
The problem with attacking the Buccaneers heavily with the run is that they are very stout against the ground game. The Buccaneers rank fourth in EPA allowed per rush and 10th in run defense grade. They aren’t a terrible pass defense, ranking 19th in EPA allowed per dropback, but teams have generally had more success when passing against them.
Dallas Goedert has been the engine of the Eagles passing attack with an elite 2.34 YPRR, but there is some major risk that he slows down going forward. Goedert has a 20% target rate, which is good for his 8.4 YPT but not elite. He’s hitting elite per-route efficiency by going nuts in per-target efficiency. And betting on players to sustain an extreme YPT is very often a losing bet.
In fact, DeVonta Smith leads the Eagles with a 23% target share to Goedert’s 19% and a 39% air yard share to Goedert’s 17%. He has a much stronger target profile but has run cold with a 9.1 YPT. Smith’s 15.2 aDOT helps explain away some of his efficiency and gives him a huge ceiling if he runs hot this week.
Miles Sanders is returning from hand surgery, and although his receiving work may be reduced, he should have close to his regular role. Sanders had multiple games with a 75%+ snap rate early in the season, but he’s likely to settle into the 65% range this week. However, Sanders ranks sixth in breakaway percentage and has upside for a nice fantasy day if he can hit some big plays with fresh legs.
Buccaneers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 27
Tom Brady ranks sixth in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE. He hasn’t been elite in terms of efficiency or accuracy this season, but like Josh Allen, he also provides a ton of passing volume in competitive environments. Brady isn’t quite as voluminous at Allen, logging 602 plays outside of garbage time to Allen’s 647—but Brady has also been far more efficient. Brady has actually run the same number of competitive plays as Patrick Mahomes and has been slightly less efficient... at 44 years old.
Brady is now facing an Eagles defense ranked 15th in EPA allowed per dropback, sixth in pass rush grade, and 14th in coverage grade. They’re a respectable unit.
But the bigger concern for the Buccaneers passing game is how Brady will fare without multiple key weapons. With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown no longer in the picture, Brady will need big games from Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski.
Evans had a 24% target rate in Week 18 and will be a considerable part of the game plan by necessity. However, it’s tough to see Brady peppering him with targets given Evans’ playstyle. Evans has a 13.7 aDOT this season and has been a downfield wide receiver his entire career. So he has a high target floor this week, but Brady is still likely to spread the ball around.
Rob Gronkowski had a 25% target rate in Week 18 and led the team in routes run. He had a 23% target rate in Week 17 and also led the Buccaneers in routes. Gronkowski is now operating as a co-WR1 with Evans, and he arguably has higher target upside, given his lower 10.9 aDOT.
We should see plenty of Tyler Johnson and Breshad Perriman this week. Perriman’s 1.42 YPRR makes him a more interesting dart throw than Tyler Johnson‘s 0.92 does. Perriman is also operating in more of the Antonio Brown role, which gives him big play upside, whereas Johnson would need to unexpectedly rack up short receptions.
Brady should also be aided by Leonard Fournette‘s return for this game. Fournette has a 56% route rate, and he could functionally operate as the third receiving option. Fournette’s ability as an underneath outlet could be critical if Brady is struggling to connect with his wide receivers downfield—either as a result of a lack of chemistry or because of expected windy conditions. Fournette should have the backfield almost entirely to himself with Ronald Jones out for the game.
From Weeks 10-14, with total control of the Buccaneers’ backfield, Fournette had 23.2 expected points per game. That workload would have easily led the NFL if he’d sustained it over an entire season. Of course, he wouldn’t have. But Derrick Henry led the NFL with 21 expected points per game this year, so Fournette could regress meaningfully from his peak workhorse usage and still have an elite workload this week. Arians is labeling him as a game-time decision, but it appears likely that Fournette will play. The downside is that his snaps could be limited if the Eagles don’t hold up their end on offense.
49ers at Cowboys, 4:30 PM Eastern, Sunday
49ers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23.75
Jimmy Garoppolo ranks ninth in EPA per play and 11th in CPOE. He doesn’t always look great out there, but he does support one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
The 49ers pick their spots with Garoppolo. Only the Titans are a more run-heavy team with a -7% pass rate over expected. The 49ers also rank dead last in situation neutral pass rate. If given a chance to run the ball... they will jump at it.
The Cowboys are capable against the run, ranking 14th in EPA allowed per rush and eight in run defense grade. But the 49ers will still probably keep things on the ground as much as possible to avoid a Cowboys pass defense that ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback, eighth in pass rush grade and eighth in coverage grade.
If the 49ers can control the game, Elijah Mitchell is set up for a nice day. In his last four games, Mitchell averaged 18.4 expected points per game. And Mitchell has only 57% and 53% snaps rates in his last two games. He has even more upside if he can get back to the 70% and 84% snap rates he saw back in Week 12 and 13.
One issue for the 49ers here is that the Cowboys have been pass-heavy in favorable matchups (which this is) and also push the pace. The 49ers are a slow team, ranking 28th in situation neutral second per play. But a plodding, run-heavy attack may ultimately fail to get the job done if the Cowboys are efficiently and quickly moving the ball on the other side.
The Cowboys rank seventh in pressure rate and lead the league in quick pressure rate, so there is real danger in frequently dropping back against them. But fortunately, Garoppolo is excellent when hurried, ranking third in YPA when pressured and sixth in passer rating. This should make for a fantasy-rich scoring environment if the Cowboys push the 49ers to air it out.
Deebo Samuel is coming off one of the most impressive seasons by any player. With 2.98 YPRR, he is second to only Cooper Kupp in the metric. But Samuel’s receiving production looks less sustainable than Kupp’s headed into the playoffs. Samuel has a 12.3 YPT with just an 8.6 aDOT. He’s running as hot as the sun in per-target efficiency, which is a concerning sign. This isn’t to say that Samuel’s usage hasn’t been impressive. He has a 24% target rate, and unlike any other receiver in the playoffs, he operates as a third down running back and sees goal line carries. Samuel’s profile is elite. Unfortunately, he’s also out-performing his elite profile in an unsustainable way.
George Kittle also has an elite profile. His 24% target rate matches Samuel’s, and he has a very similar 8.3 YPT. Kittle is running hot with a 9.8 YPT, but not anywhere near to the extent that Samuel is. And Kittle runs fewer routes than Samuel, with an 82% route rate to Samuel’s 88%. And Kittle isn’t a part-time high-leverage running back. So Samuel is undeniably the stronger play. But Kittle is an elite play in his own right.
Brandon Aiyuk has a 17% target rate this season, and with a 10.4 aDOT, he’s what counts as a deep threat in this offense. His 1.68 YPRR makes him more than a TD-dependent option, but he still needs TDs to hit a true ceiling. He has a deep threat target rate without actually getting a lot of deep targets.
Cowboys Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.75
Dak Prescott ranks 10th in EPA per play and seventh in CPOE, and he’s facing a 49ers defense that ranks 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.
When the Cowboys choose to air it out, they can be extremely pass-heavy. We last saw this version of the Cowboys against Washington’s pass funnel defense when they posted a 12% pass rate over expected in a big win. They also debuted against the Buccaneers with a 22% PROE. They have been extremely tilted to the pass when the matchup calls for it.
But teams have played the 49ers with a balanced approach this year, and the Cowboys have tended to be balanced in this type of spot. They are a team that leans to the pass but aren’t a genuinely pass-heavy squad.
Fortunately, the Cowboys keep play volume high even when they’re not passing at a high rate. Dallas leads the league in situation neutral pace and is snapping the ball with the most time remaining on the play clock.
CeeDee Lamb has recently produced some frustrating receiving lines and has seen just 11 total targets over his last three games. There are reasons to remain optimistic, however. Following Michael Gallup‘s Week 16 knee injury, Lamb has posted route rates of 91% and 97%, leading Dallas in routes run over the last two weeks. With Lamb’s team-leading 2.06 YPRR, a full slate of routes is a big deal... and strangely, something that wasn’t happening when Gallup was in the lineup. Lamb has a 22% target rate this season, and his recent target drought is not something I’m overly concerned about, given his level of talent.
Amari Cooper has a much lower 1.65 YPRR, but his 19% target rate is reasonably solid. He’s also an every-route wide receiver and could easily outproduce Lamb on a given week if he finds the end zone or if Lamb keeps slumping.
Cedrick Wilson has a 1.74 YPRR and is dominating slot snaps, leading to easy targets. But Wilson also has a 9.9 YPT, which is quite high for his 10.0 aDOT. He’s still firmly the No. 3 wide receiver in the offense, not to take away from the fact that he’s played very well since being forced into full-time action.
Dalton Schultz has an 18% target rate this season and a 1.47 YPRR that is fully supported by his target profile. The issue is that his per-route efficiency is mediocre and makes him a TD-dependent pay. He’s tied with Amari Cooper for a team-high eight TDs, so he remains a viable option.
The Cowboys have at times been run-heavy this year, and with the 49ers sure to prefer a run-heavy script, Dallas could play them on their own terms, particularly if playing with a lead. The silver lining, in that case, would be that Dallas leads the league in play clock remaining when ahead. If operating in positive game script creates a more run-heavy environment for the Cowboys, this could still be a high scoring game.
Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, Ezekiel Elliott ranks just RB17 in expected points per game. His workload has been less than a point greater than Myles Gaskin‘s to close out the year. Elliott ceded 9.4 points per game to Tony Pollard over that stretch, severely cutting his workload. It’s hard to see that changing in the playoffs, and honestly, Pollard’s workload should increase if the Cowboys are looking to maximize their odds of advancing. Pollard ranks 11th in breakaway percentage, ninth in elusive rating, and fourth in YPRR. He’ll likely be in his typical role, but there’s little question that he provides the Cowboys offense with more juice, and his health is trending up after resting for Week 18. (Pollard isn’t fantasy-relevant, I just wish he was).
Steelers at Chiefs, PM Eastern, Sunday
Steelers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16.5
One thing I’ll say for Ben Roethlisberger is that at least he seems as startled as we are that he’s in the playoffs. He ranks just 27th in EPA per play this season, and check out the quarterbacks he rates between.
This list doesn’t exactly scream playoff quarterback. But we know Roethlisberger is a limited quarterback at this point in his career. But, at least he can still deliver the ball accurately.
Um... about that... Roethlisberger ranks even worse in accuracy this season and slots into an even sadder group of names.
Roethlisberger now faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in pass rush grade, and 10th in coverage grade. However, the Chiefs had a difficult schedule this year, causing the metrics to understate their strength on defense. This is a pass defense that is capable; it’s harder to confidently say the same about Roethlisberger.
At least we can count on Roethlisberger to lock onto Diontae Johnson. Johnson leads the Steelers with a 29% target rate and a 29% target share. He isn’t quite at Cooper Kupp‘s level in terms of being the engine of his passing offense, but he’s shockingly close. However, Johnson has a woof-inducing 7.0 YPT, which can’t really be expected to increase a ton given his quarterback play. There’s always the potential that his buffet of targets will have a couple big plays mixed in there, though.
Chase Claypool was up to a 98% route rate in Week 18, which is a very positive sign for a player that has seen his playing time fluctuate a bit this year. Claypool is also running cold with an 8.3 YPT, which shouldn’t be shocking since he operates as Roethlisberger’s deep threat. However, his 20% target rate is still impressive for his 11.9 aDOT, and he’s in play as a premium dart throw.
Pat Freiermuth has seven TDs this year and ran a route on 78% of dropbacks in Week 18. With that profile, he’s in play as a TD-dependent bet. Freiermuth has just 1.26 YPRR, but his 19% target rate is good enough to provide a usable PPR week even if he doesn’t get in the end zone. With a 5.9 aDOT, though, he’ll need an overall passing volume spike to get there without a TD
Najee Harris is a game-time decision with an elbow injury but logged a full practice on Friday and looks likely to play. He finished second this season with 20.2 expected points per game and will likely see a large workload in his first playoff game. Harris could also see quite a few check down if the Steelers go pass-heavy. Keep in mind that Harris ranks just RB35 with a 0.98 YPRR this year, though. He ranks behind Mark Ingram and Chuba Hubbard and is more of a David Montgomery type receiving option than a dynamic receiving weapon.
Chiefs Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 29
Patrick Mahomes didn’t light up the league in 2021, and therefore, he disappointed. But Mahomes’ regular season is very impressive when held to a more reasonable standard. He ranks fourth in EPA per play, more efficient than Joe Burrow and Tom Brady this season. Unfortunately, accuracy is what held Mahomes back from an epic season. He ranks 12 in CPOE, behind Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Mahomes now gets a Steelers defense that ranks eighth in EPA per play, but has extreme strengths and weaknesses. The Steelers rank third in pass rush grade but just 24th in coverage grade.
Mahomes had absolutely no trouble against Pittsburgh in Week 16, delivering his second-most efficient outing of the year in a 36-10 victory. This, despite the fact that Travis Kelce was on the Covid list and Tyreek Hill played limited snaps.
Kelce is back in the lineup this week, but it’s fair to say he wasn’t the same level of player this season as he’s been in years past. Kelce finished the year with 1.84 YPRR and a 7.5 aDOT, both well below his 2020 marks of 2.59 and 8.9. In 2020 Kelce profiled as a game-changing weapon at the tight end position. This year he profiles as a critical cog in a good offense, capable of huge games when his targets spike.
Even in Kelce’s Week 15 explosion for 191 yards and two TDs, he had a 7.8 aDOT. He just went nuts after the catch, racking up 104 yards. Kelce has a path to a similar game here. It would just be nice to feel better about him also having a path to the type of game he had the last time he played the Steelers when he went 7-109-2 with a borderline deep threat 12.3 aDOT (in 2018). Kelce is still the highest probability bet at the tight end position, but he’s more volume and TD dependent than is ideal.
Tyreek Hill has participated in practice despite dealing with a heel injury and should be close to full health against the Steelers. But Hill’s role has also shifted in the offense. After posting a 12.9 aDOT in 2020, Hill’s average target depth is down to 11.0. The good news is that Hill’s target rate has jumped from 22.5% to 26%. So while his new usage lessens his potential for the 13-269-3 performance he dropped on the Buccaneers last year (with a 13.9 aDOT), his current role sets him up to more regularly access a ceiling. Hill hasn’t really done that... because he’s running cold with an 8.0 YPT, down significantly from last year’s 10.1 YPT. If Hill is healthy, he could bet going against weak Steelers coverage. Hill’s 11.0 aDOT doesn’t make him the deep threat he used to be, but he still has a true No. 1 wide receiver ceiling.
Mecole Hardman had a strong Week 18 performance and has reentered the dart throw conversation. His 1.61 YPRR isn’t terrible and is meaningfully better than Byron Pringle‘s 1.42. Pringle is probably a better bet for routes, though.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out for this game, leaving Darrel Williams in line to handle the full workload for the Chiefs. Williams had an 80% snap rate in Week 17, but he’ll likely fall in the 60-70% range this week. Even still, Williams has a lock on receiving work and is used around the goal line, profiling as a very strong RB2 type play.
Cardinals at Rams, PM Eastern, Monday
Cardinals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.75
Kyler Murray ranks 13th in EPA per play and is tied for first in CPOE. And although Murray’s efficiency is less than ideal, he’s been a high volume passer, averaging 34.3 competitive plays per game. Like Josh Allen, Murray’s efficiency understates the value he brings to his offense.
One issue for Murray is that he hasn’t been quite the same since his ankle injury and since DeAndre Hopkins’ injury.
Murray notably cratered in Week 15, his first game without Hopkins, ranking 31st in EPA per play on the week. He was excellent against Dallas in Week 16, however, turning in his third-most efficient performance of the season against a very difficult defense on the road. Murray then underperformed against the Seahawks to close the season... but his accuracy remained high, and it’s possible he got his footing against the Cowboys and never lost it—simply running bad in efficiency against Seattle.
Murray now gets a Rams defense that ranks sixth in EPA allowed per dropback, first in pass rush grade, and 12th in coverage grade. When Murray was cooking in Week 4, he had no trouble with the Rams, delivering his fourth-most efficient week of the season in a 37-20 win. The issue is... can Murray return to that form with his current set of weapons?
Christian Kirk leads full-time Cardinals in YPRR this season (including Hopkins), but his 1.81 YPRR is lower than ideal for a team’s top weapon. In addition, his 18% target share makes him a boom/bust option. With a 12.1 aDOT, he’s capable of big plays, but his day could swing on the result of a couple high leverage targets.
Zach Ertz has a 21% target rate to Kirk’s 19% and is a higher probability bet for target volume. Ertz’s 7.7 aDOT makes him a lower ceiling option, but Ertz can deliver a big day through reception volume and TDs, even if his yardage total is relatively meager.
A.J. Green is back to being a full-time player in the offense with a 94% route rate in Week 18. He’s a better dart throw than Antoine Wesley.
James Conner looks questionable for this game, bordering on doubtful. We will likely see a massive role for Chase Edmonds if he misses. Edmonds had a 92% snap share in Week 16 and an 80% snap share in Week 17 with Conner out. Edmonds was RB4 in expected points per game over that stretch with a ridiculous 23.9 point workload. Let me put it this way: Edmonds was getting used like Leonard Fournette with Conner out. If he gets that role again this week, Edmonds could be the key to the six-game slate.
Rams Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 28.75
Matthew Stafford was incredible to start the season, but he then had a scary slump... that may or may not be over.
Stafford had two solidly efficient performances to close out the year, but even those games came with red flags. In Week 16, he underperformed in a juicy matchup with the Ravens, barely pulling out a 20-19 victory. And in Week 18, he lost a home game to the 49ers in overtime. There’s also the issue that Sean McVay appears to have lost his unconditional faith in Stafford, steadily shifting the offense to the run over the course of the season.
The silver lining here is that the Rams did go pass-heavy against the Cardinals in Week 14. Their 7% pass rate over expected was their fifth-highest rate of the season and one of only three pass-first outings since their Week 11 bye. The Rams won that game 30-23, and we could see a similar game plan here. However, if Stafford struggles out of the gate, we’ll probably see the Rams quickly pivot back to the run.
The Cardinals have a capable pass defense that ranks seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, ninth in pass rush grade, and 17th in coverage grade. But even if they play well and the Rams deploy a run-first attack... we’re still going to see Cooper Kupp get his opportunity.
Kupp led the NFL with 3.12 YPRR, posting an ultra-elite 32% target share. Kupp’s 10.3 YPT is undeniably hot for a player with an 8.6 aDOT, so he’s not immune to a bad game if the Rams’ passing game contracts significantly this week. But Kupp’s 30% target rate is also incredibly high. He’s run hot in per-target efficiency... but he’s also crushing in the more predictive metrics. Kupp might not be as productive in the playoffs as in the regular season, but a Rams playoff run is extremely likely to go through Kupp.
Odell Beckham hasn’t clicked with Matthew Stafford with an abysmal 6.8 YPT since joining the Rams. YPT isn’t predictive... but if a player isn’t producing on his targets... he sometimes sees fewer targets. That was the case last week, with Beckham posting a 12% target rate. He’s now at 19% since joining the Rams. Beckham still remains well ahead of Van Jefferson‘s 16% target rate and has the exact same 14.0 aDOT. Both players are deep threats, and Beckham’s higher target rate is preferable to Jefferson’s high 9.3 YPT. Still, Beckham essentially shares a role with Jefferson rather than being anywhere near Kupp.
Tyler Higbee had a very strong Week 18 with a 19% target rate and two TDs. His 86% route rate makes him a viable option every week. However, his 16% target rate makes him a TD or bust bet.
Cam Akers returned in Week 18, but he played just 20% of snaps to Sony Michel‘s 80%. Akers could see his role grow a bit this week, but Michel will likely handle the majority of the backfield. Since Week 13, Michel has 19 expected points per game and feels like a risker bet this week than he probably is.
Sources
To write this article, I relied on the following stats, metrics, and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
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- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
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- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
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- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
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- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
