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Stock Up
Devin Neal, RB, Kansas - Class of 2024
In true HC Lance Leipold form, the former Buffalo Bulls coach followed the same split-backfield approach that he employed so effectively with Kevin Marks Jr. and Jarret Patterson carrying the rock. Through the Jayhawks’ first eight games Neal (5'11/210) received a high of just 14 totes despite averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He had been in a timeshare with Daniel Hishaw Jr. (5'10/215) until his untimely injury against Iowa State in Week 5. Neal was finally unleashed against Oklahoma State this weekend, rushing a career-high 32 times for 224 yards, 7.0 YPC and a touchdown, while gaining an average of 4.25 yards after contact and breaking seven tackles. However beyond the stat sheet, the big takeaway was just how fast Neal looks when he hits the hole then turns on the jets at the second level. He utilized well-timed, full-speed cuts to set up his blocks while still maintaining his lead on trailing defenders trying to chase him down:
Kansas 2024 RB Devin Neal (5’11/210) had a career game this week vs. Oklahoma State, piling up 334 total yards (224 Rush/110 Rec)
— Eric Froton (@CFFroton) November 8, 2022
Neal’s 6 Recs doubled his season total while this is his fifth career 100-yard game. Intrigued w/his traits, needs to improve 17% Broken Tackle Rate: pic.twitter.com/zraxVNsACF
Here’s a 2021 Devin Neal breakdown from our friends at Devy Deep Dive, Brandon Lejune and Corey Patterson:
Have Devin Neal on your devy roster and want to really watch his film? Check out the latest Film Room show @FF_Guitarist and I did together. We break down his film and talk about the good and the bad. Enjoy!
— Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive) July 9, 2022
Watch 🎞️ & Subscribe🔥🔥https://t.co/3b9VEqQ74i pic.twitter.com/miawEPepZA
If there’s a knock on Neal for me, it’s that he is more smooth than he is powerful. While undeniably dynamic and possessing impressive acceleration, Neal ceded reps to Hishaw Jr. in short yardage situations, as Hishaw Jr. is averaging 3.86 yards after contact with an excellent 48% broken tackle rate at the time of his injury. Conversely Neal is averaging just 2.85 YAC (143rd among RBs with 50+ rush attempts) with a lowly 17% broken tackle rate. Despite his lack of prototype physicality, Neal’s explosiveness and easy running style makes him a very intriguing Devy/Dynasty prospect who is a legitimate top-10 RB from the 2024 NFL Draft class. His value could skyrocket if he continues to receive 20+ carries per week and perform at this elite level for the remainder of the year.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon - Class of 2023
Sometimes a change of scenery can do a world of good for someone, and boy is that the case with five-star Auburn transfer QB Bo Nix this season. Following a dreadful two interception performance in Week 1 against Georgia, Nix has settled down to become one of the most effective quarterbacks in the country, completing 73% of his throws at 9.2 yards per attempt with a 22-to-3 ratio since then. Nix’s mobility allows him to consistently make plays outside of structure, as he owns the lowest sack rate, 3.2%, in FBS. He is also one of the more creative quarterbacks in CFB, varying his arm angles when the situation dictates as was the case on this behind the back/over the head 4th-and-goal attempt from Saturday’s game:
Auburn-Era Bo Nix just showed up for a play pic.twitter.com/NbdnFclNMI
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 5, 2022
As is stated in my tweet below, Nix hasn’t thrown downfield much but he has been positively surgical when he does. Here are several of his throws against Colorado, with Nix in complete command of the Ducks offense:
Oregon QB Bo Nix led the Ducks to their 8th straight 40-point effort, scoring two passing, two rushing and a receiving TD vs CU
— Eric Froton (@CFFroton) November 9, 2022
Though he is only throwing downfield 11.8% of the time (119th in FBS), Nix ranks 5th in Deep Completion % at 56%, with the 2nd lowest sack rate (3.2%) pic.twitter.com/h6CRdnsOvj
Though his 85% adjusted completion rate is the best in the country according to PFF, Nix isn’t making the eye-popping throws into tight windows as is evidenced by his mundane 9-to-6 Big Time Throw-to-Turnover Worthy Play ratio. Though his 90.0 PFF offensive grade ranks 7th among Power Five signal callers, his 79.1 passing grade is slightly above average but nothing to really write home about. When projecting for NFL Draft purposes, can his escapability and pocket presence overcome his lack of a powerful arm? Nix still has a long way to go before our memories are no longer tainted by his woeful stint at Auburn. However with Sam Ehlinger now starting games at the NFL level, you can’t rule him out as an NFL signal caller just yet.
Josh Downs, WR, UNC - Class of 2023
Though he was slowed early on by an injury, Downs (5'11/175) has hit his stride over the last three weeks collecting 35 receptions on 43 targets for 394 yards and three touchdowns. He lines up in the slot 80% of the time where he will remain in the NFL due to his light frame and fast twitch ability to disguise his breaks and create separation in the open field. Drake Maye‘s favorite target, Downs has the fifth-highest catch rate in the nation at 85% while also ranking fourth overall with an 88.3 PFF receiving grade. He wreaked havoc on the Virginia secondary last Saturday, catching 15-of-16 targets while running an array of routes from which he created separation all game long:
UNC 2023 WR Josh Downs (5’10/175) ripped UVA for 15 Recs on 16 targets for 166 yards and a TD
— Eric Froton (@CFFroton) November 9, 2022
Downs has stepped up his production after an early season injury, with 49 catches and 4, 100-yard games in his last 5
Here are all of his receptions from Saturday’s game against UVA: pic.twitter.com/ldAhwRfYMv
As an added bonus, Downs’ elusiveness also makes him a dangerous return man in leagues that count return yards, of which I’m in a few for CFF purposes:
Josh Downs is so shifty 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ISi0z0cF6W
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 5, 2022
This catch is from last year, but I couldn’t resist throwing it in. Awe inspiring, full layout corner end zone touchdown reception:
RIDICULOUS catch by Josh Downs against Virginia last year!
— Origin Sports (@OriginSportsTV) November 5, 2022
The South’s Oldest Rivalry returns at Noon tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/aUkFfiRyrD
The 2023 receiver group features some talented slot-type wideouts at the top end of the class with JSN, Jordan Addison, Kayshon Boutte and Downs leading the way for 6'1 and under technicians alongside the towering Quentin Johnston at the top of the rankings. I love Downs’ quickness and soft hands, as his 90% (9-of-10) contested target catch rate is the best in the Power Five this season. The biggest question mark for me is can his 175-pound frame hold up at the NFL level, as the list of impact fantasy wide receivers in his weight/BMI range in the NFL is notably thin. That aside, Downs has the tools and athleticism to be a consistently productive NFL wideout if he can hold up to the rigors of the professional game.
Rashee Rice, WR, SMU - Class of 2023
The nation’s leading receiver and lone member of the 1,000-yard receiving club, Rice has emerged from the shadow of 2022 NFL Draftee Danny Gray to become one of the hottest Group of Five 2023 NFL Draft prospects in the country. Heading into October, Rice was barely on NFL Mock Draft radars, with the 6'3/211 wideout drawing a UDFA grade according to the Internet Mock Database entering the season. However since then Rice has been a workhorse, receiving the second-highest target load in the country while breaking 12 tackles and securing 12-of-27 contested targets. His game film against Houston reveals some of Rice’s talent that has scouts strapping a rocket to his draft stock.
SMU 2023 WR Rashee Rice (6’3/211) has amassed 266 yards and four touchdowns in his last 2 games
— Eric Froton (@CFFroton) November 10, 2022
Rice is leading the nation w/1,057 Receiving Yards and ranks 4th at 3.26 yards per route
Watch all of his 9 catches vs Houston and an incredible “almost” TD catch in back of the EZ👇 pic.twitter.com/gd2Cr6FhNu
Rice’s first touchdown catch is a deftly run route where he maintains outside leverage, pushing the corner inside before darting to the front pylon for the score. He shows unusual 3-Cone-like burst out of his break for a player his size and also makes a nice adjustment on a second-half hands-catch he had to reach back for. However the almost-touchdown catch in the back-right corner was the most exciting play he made against the Cougars.
Here’s a nice cutup of some highlight reel receptions from games against North Texas and Lamar:
Rashee Rice is a contested-catch beast. He uses his size, body-control, explosiveness & flexibility to his advantage.
— WBG84 (@WBG84) November 2, 2022
Can elevate & make highlight-reel grabs even in double-coverage while absorbing contact. Impressive hands, concentration & balance in those situations #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/dXlAkd5TzO
Rice is now being selected in recent mocks at the 63rd overall selection on average, placing the Mustangs’ star in the late-second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. If you picked up Rice in the offseason and stashed him on your Devy roster, you are sporting a healthy ROI right now on that savvy investment.
Donovan Edwards, RB, Michigan - Class of 2024
We were treated to a glimpse into the future on Saturday, with Michigan blue-chip recruit and all-purpose dynamo Donovan Edwards reminding everyone that the future is bright in Ann Arbor next season when Blake Corum moves on.
Though Michigan 2024 RB Donovan Edwards (6’1/204) is behind Heisman hopeful RB Blake Corum this year, it won’t be long before he is the RB1 in Ann Arbor.
— Eric Froton (@CFFroton) November 10, 2022
He is by far the top receiving RB in FBS this season by PFF w/91.8 Rec Grade (McIntosh #2 at 86.3)👀
All his reps vs. RU ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/8WeapdRr5a
A second-year player, Edwards had some issues reading blocks as a true freshman last season which caused him to leave some rushing yards on the table. However against Rutgers I felt like he was much more instinctive, especially on the first few runs shown on the video, you see Edwards make a sharp cutback against the grain for a first down before patiently picking his way through traffic for a nice pickup. He then uses a well-timed pace step to let his blocks develop before shooting through a right side hole for an explosive play down the sideline. With his receiving acumen already beyond reproach, Edwards could greatly elevate his 2024 Draft stock by continuing to refine his ball carrying prowess and bulking up a bit to handle a 200-carry burden next year.
Stock Down
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee - Class of 2023
Well, it finally happened, Hooker (6'4/218) proved to be mortal against Georgia’s elite defense by completing 23-of-33 passes for 195 yards and an interception along with a 72.2 NFL Passer Rating, which is 49.9 points lower than his season average. Hooker was clearly having trouble locating open receivers, as his 3.18 average time-to-throw was a half-second faster than his yearly average of 2.67s per pass attempt. He also had major issues with UGA’s ferocious pass rush, getting sacked a season-high eight times while facing pressure on almost half of his dropbacks. When kept clean, Hooker completed 20-of-26 passes. When facing a stiff rush on his 21 other dropbacks he was only able to attempt 7 passes, completing three for 53 yards and a 49.9 PFF pass grade. His ability to navigate pressure has been a problem all season for Hooker, as his 28.6 pressure-to-sack rate is the fourth highest in the nation, behind just Jayden Daniels and Will Levis. The 2023 NFL QB3 race between Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Hooker and the rest of the class will be one of the hottest storylines of the offseason. Hooker has certainly been better than either of the aforementioned signal callers from an on-field performance aspect, but he will also be 25 years old when draft time rolls around too. While the Georgia game exposed some cracks in Hooker’s game, he still posted a 21-to-2 ratio with a 71% completion rate while playing SEC-caliber competition and will get a long look from QB-needy franchises during the pre-draft evaluation process.
Freshman Phenoms
MJ Morris, QB, NC State - Class of 2025
A four-star prospect from this year’s freshman class, Morris (6'2/192) was expected to serve as Devin Leary’s apprentice for his first season before taking the starting reins in 2023. Then Leary got injured which pressed former walk-on QB Jack Chambers into service, with disappointing results. Two weeks ago Morris took over for the ineffective Chambers by completing 20-of-30 passes for 265 yards, a 52% success rate and a 3-to-0 ratio.
Here are some of his best throws from last Saturday against Wake Forest:
MJ Morris leads NC State to VICTORY in first career start!@PackFootball pic.twitter.com/1RQVidYUec
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) November 6, 2022
Morris can throw on the run and doesn’t have to scramble every time he gets flushed from the pocket, despite possessing well above average running ability. His arm strength is solid and his ball placement on rhythm throws has been pretty consistent. He completed 18-of-28 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns against Wake Forest and is sporting a promising 120.7 NFL passer rating thus far. Morris is one of the few Power Five freshman quarterbacks to step into a starting role and hit the ground running with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio. I’m excited to see what he can do going forward.
Joseph Griffin Jr, WR, Boston College - Class of 2025
While 2023 NFL Draftee-to-be WR Zay Flowers is getting plenty of much deserved hype in regards to his playmaking ability at the next level. However if last week is any indication, it appears the succession plan is firmly in place at BC, with freshman WR Joseph Griffin Jr. having himself a day against Duke. A homegrown talent from Springfield, MA, Griffin Jr. was rated as a four-star recruit and the 52nd overall receiving recruit according to the 247Sports composite board. Here are all of his targets from Saturday, with four of his receptions requiring a high degree of difficulty to reel in:
BC 2025 WR Joseph Griffin Jr. Opened some eyes with his 5 Recs, 103 yards, 2 TDs against Duke last week.
— Eric Froton (@CFFroton) November 10, 2022
The 4⭐️WR reeled in all four of his contested targets while making a few highlight reel-worthy catches. He is an intriguing potential Devy prospect going forward 📈 pic.twitter.com/qrw8n3BL7m
Though his 103 yards and two touchdowns were career highs, Griffin Jr. was inserted into the starting lineup three games ago and has cleared 50 receiving yards in each start for a BC offense that ranks 86th in passing performance. The Griffin Jr./Emmett Morehead duo is going to be a potent freshman combination that will dictate the success of the Eagles’ program over the next few seasons.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State - Class of 2025
It’s almost obligatory to include my favorite 2025 Devy QB prospect, and since he looked great against Indiana, I’ll let the Devy Deep Dive play us out:
If you didn't get a chance to see Penn State QB Drew Allar vs Indiana on past Saturday, here is his film. Also, recorded a lot of extra commentary that the announcers discussed. Some good stuff in there. Enjoy!
— Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive) November 8, 2022
Watch 🎞️👇https://t.co/F6rgyh18op pic.twitter.com/dSgPTqgWO2
