Underdog and DraftKings have both released their flagship Best Ball contests plus plenty of other tournaments with differing buy-in levels and field sizes. Underdog’s top payout is $2 million while DraftKings’ is $1 million. Both contests are massive and see the field chopped down after 14 weeks. The field is cut down two more times until a final tournament is held in Week 17. With the final round featuring hundreds of teams, correlating your squad with players from the same games is an easy way to create a roster loaded with volatility, just like stacking in DFS.
Beyond saying, “take good teams and don’t pay anything for them,” there are a few other considerations worth noting when looking for Best Ball stacks. Instead of zeroing in on Week 17 exclusively, it’s important to view the entire playoff journey. Last year, a very common stack that won best ball leagues was Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashaad Penny. The duo combined for 62.9 points in Underdog scoring and won at least one person a million dollars.
If you scroll my old posts you’ll see I also posted the draft board and my exposures pic.twitter.com/5O5ryqLkUp
— Liam Murphy (@ChessLiam) June 15, 2022
However, few (if any) of these stacks had Russell Wilson or DK Metcalf attached to them. Loading up on the Seahawks offense as a whole was a great way to lose your initial league in best ball tournaments. When considering the final stack, it needs to feature some probability of the players in the stack making it there in the first place. The highest premium should still be put on players participating in a high-scoring finale, but we can give an additional tally in their favor if they get good matchups in Week 15 or 16. No team is going to play in three easily-predicted shootouts, but placing added emphasis on the individual rounds is a piece of the puzzle worth considering given how top-heavy the tournaments are.
The second aspect that is worth thinking about is the uniqueness of the stack. The biggest contest on DraftKings features a final table of 969 lineups. On Underdog, that number drops to 470 in Best Ball Mania III. The Chiefs are a great team to stack, but if they crush for an entire season and coast into the playoffs, you will be facing plenty of teams with Kansas City stacks. A large subset of those will also feature Denver run-backs (if the field is playing with this strategy in mind). It’s a good stack, but there is value in having combinations of players no one else has in a contest as large as either final round. Will all of these rambling thoughts of a fantasy-warped brain in mind, here are some good (and one disgusting) Week 17 stacks.
Kansas City vs. Denver
As I’ve already mentioned, this is the stack most Best Ball drafters have in mind. Though we can’t say with certainty that the Week 17 bump is the cause of rising ADPs, there is some obvious evidence that drafters have already begun targeting this game.
So "Draft Week 17 correlation at ADP"
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) June 15, 2022
has shifted Courtland Sutton (+12 spots), Jerry Jeudy (+8 spots), Allen Robinson (+7 spots) and Gabriel Davis (+6 spots) ADPs in the top 50 picks
When Allen, Stafford and Russ' ADPs are going in the opposite direction https://t.co/wqpgQaPdyV
The interesting thing Josh Norris points out here is Russell Wilson‘s ADP (76.8) hasn’t budged. Denver is an incredibly volatile team. They have a first-year head coach working with a quarterback who has posted all-time efficiency numbers throughout his career while playing under one of the league’s foremost establish the run masterminds in Pete Carroll. Wilson also gets a cadre of pass-catchers in his new city. The Broncos have a wild run of Arizona, LA (Rams), and Kansas City for the Best Ball playoffs. Combining Wilson with two of Courtland Sutton (37.4), Jerry Jeudy (43.3) and Albert Okwuegbunam (147.9) is my preferred way to attack the Denver side. Taking two Chiefs, even without Mahomes, is doable as well. Avoiding similar skill sets on the team—taking only one of Mecole Hardman (128.2) and Skyy Moore (90.7)—is a useful bet to make to increase the upside captured from this game as well. If you choose to load up on this game, I still think creating smaller correlations with the rest of your roster is the way to go.
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
By looking only at 2021 points per game, this contest features the best combination of offenses for Best Ball championships. Both teams finished top-10 in scoring last year, which will undoubtedly make it a popular option to stack. For that reason, it’s another one where creating unique angles on it will be important. From Buffalo’s side, adding James Cook (107.2) and/or Isaiah McKenzie (211.6) to a Josh Allen (29.8) stack could be differentiators. Cook posted a 67/730/6 receiving line in four years at Georgia. He will be attempting to steal third-down work from a running back who finished 66th out of 67 running backs in yards per route run last year. McKenzie will be competing with Jamison Crowder for WR3 snaps, but the latter goes over 80 picks before McKenzie in drafts. The Bengals side is less interesting with nearly all of their players operating in well-defined roles. Hayden Hurst (181.8) is taking over the starting tight end role for Cincy and is nearly free in all drafts. That gig propelled C.J. Uzomah to two 20-point outings in 2022.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This game also features two top-10 teams in scoring. On top of the scoring output, this game is doubly appealing because of the pace of the squads involved. The Chargers led the league in seconds per play while the Rams finished 11th. After getting demolished by running backs in 2021, the Chargers made some additions to their defensive line in the offseason. However, they didn’t do enough to guarantee themselves even a league-average defense against the run. Because of that, taking Chargers players versus Cam Akers (46.3) is a particularly appealing strategy.
The Bolts gave up more than 150 rushing yards seven times last year. In those games, Justin Herbert (45) averaged 313 passing yards. That would have led the NFL over the course of a full season. Beyond pairing Keenan Allen (28) or Mike Williams (28.9) with Herbert, Josh Palmer (151) is an intriguing third option. Reports from minicamp had him running as the team’s third receiver, ahead of Jalen Guyton. As a rookie, Palmer earned one more target than Guyton on over 100 fewer routes.
Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
We have officially moved out of the popular game territory, so the final two matchups can be attacked in a more straightforward manner. This contest still includes one of the highest-scoring teams from 2021. It also features a nightmare in the form of Carolina. Though there are plenty of ways to stack this game, starting with Christian McCaffrey (2.9) as a universally accepted top-three pick is a layup. Then, with a little help from the fantasy gods, Mike Evans (18.8) could make it back for your next pick, which would be No. 22. Taking Leonard Fournette (22.9) and building a hyper-fragile team is also a viable start. Tagging any Evans team with Tom Brady (79.7) is also ideal. McCaffrey works as the perfect run-back to a Bucs stack because, in all likelihood, the Bucs will bury the Panthers in Week 17. Over the past four seasons, McCaffrey has averaged more fantasy points in losses than wins.
Courtesy of RotoViz
Indianapolis vs. New York Giants
Moving past the games with one or two elite offenses, I find value in focusing on teams undergoing an extreme level of turnover. We want an easily identifiable reason that multiple pieces of an offense will break out or at least outperform their ADPs. Finding a game with two of those teams is the jackpot. The Colts are going from Carson Wentz, who finished 26th in completion rate over expected, to Matt Ryan (158.9), who landed at 14th. The Colts’ passing stack is easy to set up by taking Michael Pittman (30.5) early or pairing Ryan with rookie Alec Pierce later in the draft (158.3). The Giants moved on from the brain trust that was Joe Judge, Jason Garrett, and Freddie Kitchens in the offseason. They were replaced by Brian Daboll, Josh Allen’s offensive coordinator, and Mike Kafka, Patrick Mahomes’ quarterback coach.
From the Giants’ side, taking Daniel Jones (160.1), Kenny Golladay (120.7), and one of Kadarius Toney (93) or Wan’Dale Robinson (179.2). In Indy, it makes sense to avoid pairing Ryan and Jonathan Taylor (1.2) together unless one falls below their ADP. Last year, Carson Wentz threw three passing touchdowns three times. Taylor was held under 100 yards and only scored once in two of those games. Going as the consensus 1.01, Taylor can sometimes be paired with Saquon Barkley (21.5) for a deadly running back duo.
Jacksonville vs. Houston
Please don’t quit reading. I only get paid if you finish the article.
These two teams were atrocious last year. That’s not even debatable. However, both teams are experiencing plenty of turnover and are cheap. When taking hilariously risky bets, we want them low in cost with an outsized payout. And if they do pay off, they help us capture the insane value inherent in the final round of Best Ball championships.
EV of a live best ball team by round in $25 Best Ball Mania III (Round 1 is just the buy-in minus the rake):
— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) June 16, 2022
Round 2 - $120
Round 3 - $862
Round 4 - $11,724
This doesn't include the regular season $1 million prize
The Texans fired head coach David Culley and replaced him with Lovie Smith. Davis Mills (204.6) is also starting the offseason as his team’s QB1 for the first time and will get a receiver upgrade in John Metchie, whenever the rookie is healthy. The turnaround isn’t as drastic as Jacksonville’s, but that is more than factored into the price. On Underdog, there’s a strong chance you can get every member of Houston’s starting offense outside of Brandin Cooks (53.9) beyond pick 180. Mills shouldn’t be a priority stack, but he works as a final quarterback on a team taking three players at the position.
In Jacksonville, they are going from one of the worst coaches to ever don the headset to Doug Pederson. Pederson coaxed a near-MVP season from Carson Wentz and won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles. The Jags also overhauled their entire offense this offseason. The retooled line should pave plenty of open runways for former first-round pick Travis Etienne. The Clemson back is also an elite receiver, upping the correlation between him and his quarterback. Trevor Lawrence (143.6) was widely considered to be the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and is now going as the QB18. If Urban Meyer was unintentionally sabotaging Lawrence as a rookie, the change to Pederson could be seismic. He has one receiver going in the top 150 picks. Even if you can’t stomach the idea of taking a quarterback from this game, pairing Etienne and Cooks, for example, is a good way to bet on these teams improving without tying your entire team to them for a full season.
