The final whistle of the Super Bowl marks the end of the 2021 season. That solidifies all draft positions and gets us looking to free agency as the next chance for teams to make significant changes to their rosters. In this series, I’ll break down the needs and goals of every team as it relates to the 2022 offseason. Included will be cap space, cut candidates, positions of need, and plenty of other useful stats and notes as we prepare for free agency and the 2022 NFL Draft. Special thanks to Over the Cap, Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Ben Baldwin’s RBSDM.com for all of the useful stats they track and house.
Patriots 2021 Recap
Patriots fans were rewarded for suffering through a grueling, playoff-less, 7-9 season in 2020 with a potential franchise quarterback via the draft the following offseason. Mac Jones quickly cemented himself as a sure-handed passer, earning the starting job before Week 1 in the process. Jones was protected by an efficient running game and solid defense but held his own when asked to step up. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes at 7.3 yards per attempt. The Patriots were ultimately demolished by Buffalo in the opening round of the playoffs but Jones became the 28th rookie to start a playoff game in the Super Bowl era. The 27 rookies before him went 9-18. Few teams get to turn the page as seamlessly as New England did, even if the first year ended with a trouncing
Key Offensive Stats
- Points per game: 27.2 (6th)
- Dropback EPA: .13 (11th)
- Passing yards per game: 227 (14th)
- Rush EPA: -.01 (7th)
- Rushing yards per game: 127 (8th)
Despite swapping out Cam Newton for Jones in the offseason, New England didn’t shy away from their ground-based approach last year. They finished the regular season 27th in pass rate over expectation and 26th in pass rate. With the tandem of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, Bill Belichick called gap runs at the second-highest rate in the league. He also rolled out 21-personnel more than all but one team. Pro Football Focus gave both backs top-12 running grades. New England’s spending spree last spring paid dividends as Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith all ranked top-15 in yards per route run at their respective positions. Jakobi Meyers, still the team’s No. 1 receiver, led the team with 83 receptions for 866 yards. He also caught his first touchdown after over two and a half scoreless seasons in the NFL.
Key Defensive Stats
- Points per game: 17.8 (2nd)
- Dropback EPA: -.05 (4th)
- Passing yards per game: 187 (2nd)
- Rush EPA: -.08 (15th)
- Rushing yards per game: 124 (22nd)
New England’s ground-based attack was made possible by their oppressive defense. With Stephon Gilmore traded to Carolina before playing a snap for New England in 2021, it was J.C. Jackson’s first year as the top dog in New England. He smashed expectations and led the NFL with 23 passes defended. He also brought down eight interceptions, one of which was taken to the house. Matt Judon, who was brought in as a free agent from Baltimore, also posted career numbers. He paced New England with 12.5 sacks. That total was three more sacks than his previous high-water mark. New England experienced some turnover on defense last year but the machine marched forward without missing a beat.
Patriots 2022 Offseason
Notes | |
Cap Space | $8.3 million |
First Pick | No. 21 |
Total Draft Value | 23rd |
Notable Free Agents | CB J.C. Jackson, LT Trent Brown, S Devin McCourty, C Ted Karras, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, LB Dont’a Hightower, LB Jamie Collins, RB Brandon Bolden, RB James White, WR/ST Matthew Slater, K Nick Folk |
Cut Candidates | Nelson Agholor ($4.9 million in savings), DE Henry Anderson ($2.7 million), WR N’Keal Harry ($1.2 million), CB Joejuan Williams ($1.4 million) |
Notes: New England’s total draft value is the sum of the value of every pick they own using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart. The values are only estimates until the NFL announces compensatory picks. Cap savings are listed assuming the player is cut before June 1st.
New England’s free agency extravaganza 12 months ago netted plenty of talented players, but it worked against their future resources in two ways. It hamstrung their cap space for this offseason while preventing them from using the compensatory pick system as their own draft pick printing press. New England is also lacking cut candidates to clear cap space. Because of this, the Pats’ primary method of improving will be getting more from the young players already on their roster.
Team Needs
Cornerback
It’s going to be hard for New England to keep Jackson. Franchise tagging him would cost the team roughly $17 million and they have yet to contact him about a new contract. Jackson lamented this in an interview with NBC Sports Boston, saying, “I guess they feel they don’t need me.” Assuming he walks, the Patriots will be looking for a new CB1 for the third season in a row.
Linebacker
The Pats could lose up to 33 starts at linebacker in free agency. The good news is that they have spent second, third, and fifth-round picks on linebackers in their past two drafts. Two of them, Anfernee Jennings and Cameron McGrone, were placed on injured reserve before the start of the 2021 season. Josh Uche, a rotational pass-rusher, picked up four sacks last year. New England needs to raise their floor at linebacker but may choose budget-friendly options with experience while relying on their trio of recent selections for upside.
Offensive Tackle
Brown has always been at his best when in New England’s system. Returning to Foxborough is the best outcome for both sides. Right tackle Isaiah Wynn is about to enter the final year of his rookie contract. If he isn’t extended soon, Wynn could seek a big deal from a new team next spring.
Coaching Changes
The Patriots lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to a head coaching job out west (again) and will need to replace him before the start of the season. A who’s who of Belichick disciples have been linked to the job. None have been hired…at least at OC. Joe Judge, a former New England staffer who failed as a head coach, was brought on board as an offensive assistant. Reports suggest he’ll work closely with the quarterbacks. His less than stellar work with Daniel Jones makes this decision as funny as it is puzzling. Bill O’Brien, Adam Gase, and Matt Patricia, two former New England staffers and three failed head coaches (I applaud your astute eyes for finding the pattern here), have been brought up as well. Assuming these reports hold water, don’t expect the new England offense to look any different next year.
Offseason Outlook
The Patriots won the 2021 draft. Other teams traded future first-round selections to get quarterbacks who would go one to fail as rookies. Belichick did what he tends to do and got the better of his peers by sitting back and letting the future of the franchise fall into his lap. The next step is coaching up the relatively young roster he now commands.
Despite being a run-first offense currently spending $13 million more than any other team at tight end, the Pats ran 12-personnel at one of the lowest rates in the league last year. An easy way to mask their slight deficiency at receiver is to use their costly tight ends at the same time, both as blockers and pass-catchers. Budget-friendly changes like this will be necessary for the Patriots to reclaim the AFC East crown after their first two-season drought since the divisions were realigned.