You may have heard, but this Sunday happens to be the Super Bowl. I’m going to combine my seasonal Worksheet format with the playoff rankings format I’ve been doing here to run through the big game. This year’s Super Bowl features the highest over/under in Super Bowl history (58.5 points) and it’s easy to see why that is as the Patriots and Falcons have been two of the league’s premier offenses in the NFL all season long. Atlanta scored on 55.8 percent of their offensive possessions in the regular season, which led the NFL. That mark is also the second-best percentage for any offense since 2000, only bested by the 2007 Patriots, who scored on 57 percent of their drives. The Falcons have rolled that right over into the postseason, scoring on a blistering 72 percent (13 of 18 drives) in their two playoff games.
Including the playoffs, since Tom Brady returned from suspension in Week 5, the Patriots have scored on 48.7 percent of their possessions and scored a touchdown on 32.1 percent of their drives, trailing only Atlanta (56.6 percent and 36.4 percent) in each department over that time period.
There’s some separation between the two teams defensively, and under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have made it a postseason normality of shutting down high octane offenses, just ask Peyton Manning. New England allowed a league-low 15.7 points per game this season, but on the flip side, the Falcons have been the steadiest offense in the NFL this season regardless of their opponent. Atlanta played four games against teams in the top-10 in points allowed this season (Seattle twice, Denver and Kansas City), averaging 27.8 points per game those weeks—with at least 23 points in each game—while scoring on 21 of 40 possessions those weeks. I do believe New England is bringing the better defense into Sunday, but I also don’t believe you should be pushed off the Atlanta offense.
By all accounts, this is one of the best offensive matchups we’ve had on Super Bowl Sunday possibly ever; let’s just hope that it meets expectations. The past four Super Bowls (three involving New England) with a combined implied total of 50 points or higher have gone under and four of the six Super Bowls involving Tom Brady and Belichick have gone under as well. At least if we end up being robbed of the anticipated shootout, recent history suggests that we should get a close game as all six of those New England Super Bowls were decided by four points or less.
Let’s kick things off with a look at the full statistical snapshot for this matchup…
New England vs. Atlanta
| Patriots | Rank | @ | Falcons | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 30.8 | Implied Total | 27.8 | ||
| 28.4 | 3 | Points/Gm | 34.4 | 1 |
| 15.7 | 1 | Opp. Points/Gm | 24.8 | 23 |
| 31:01 | 5 | Avg. TOP | 30:33 | 13 |
| 66.3 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 23 |
| 62.8 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 25 |
| 44.9% | 5 | Rush% | 42.4% | 11 |
| 55.1% | 28 | Pass% | 57.6% | 22 |
| 36.3% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 34.7% | 3 |
| 63.7% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 65.3% | 30 |
| 112.6 | 12 | Rush Yd/Gm | 118.2 | 5 |
| 87.6 | 2 | Opp. RuYd/Gm | 104.0 | 17 |
| 275.6 | 4 | Pass Yd/Gm | 302.2 | 2 |
| 239.8 | 14 | Opp. PaYd/Gm | 263.5 | 27 |
| 5.14% | 23 | Def. Sack Rate | 5.07% | 25 |
| 4.26% | 6 | Opp. Sack Rate | 6.13% | 23 |
| 0.8 | 3 | Turnovers/Gm | 0.6 | 1 |
| 1.6 | 12 | TakeAways/Gm | 1.4 | 16 |
| 5.6 | 4 | Penalties/Gm | 6.1 | 8 |
*Includes Postseason
Quarterbacks
1. Tom Brady
2. Matt Ryan
This is really a 1A and 1B situation as I don’t believe you can go wrong with either as a fantasy option. This game features two of the league’s best passers in the vertical passing game and two defenses that allowed their share of downfield opportunities per game. Excelling at getting the ball downfield is something you’d expect from Ryan given his season, but on passes 15 yards or further downfield, Brady was also near the top of the league.
Passes 15 Yards or Further Downfield
| Comp/Gm | Rank | Att/Gm | Rank | Comp% | Rank | PaYd/Gm | Rank | TD | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 3.5 | 2 | 6.2 | 15 | 56.3% | 1 | 98.7 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| Tom Brady | 3.4 | 3 | 6.8 | 9 | 50.5% | 4 | 106.9 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
| NE Def | 3.1 | 26 | 8.0 | 31 | 38.2% | 11 | 80.9 | 22 | 7 | 12 |
| ATL Def | 3.0 | 24 | 6.8 | 23 | 43.9% | 24 | 79.9 | 21 | 6 | 11 |
*Pass Depth Data Courtesy of Pro Football Reference
Brady being the favorite while also having the better paper play is enough for me to split the hair in his favor. Brady has cleared 20 points in four of his past six games with his only hiccups over that span coming against Houston and Denver, the two teams that allowed the fewest passing yards per game to opposing passers over the course of the season. Only Cleveland (18.2) allowed more passing points per game than the 17.5 allowed per game by the Falcons this season. Teams consistently trailed versus Atlanta, so some of the counting stats against them are inflated as they rank 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.5) on the season, but nearly every quarterback that you’d consider a top half fantasy option in 2016 posted big numbers against them season as they allowed 20 or points to Aaron Rodgers (twice), Drew Brees (twice), Jameis Winston (twice) and Derek Carr.
Ryan has been the best quarterback in the NFL wire to wire this entire season and he’s been nothing short of sensational to start the postseason. Ryan has completed 70.7 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and no interceptions while also adding a rushing score to start the playoffs. Going beyond this postseason and into the regular season, Ryan also has tied an NFL record with five straight games of completing at least 70 percent of his passes with multiple touchdown passes in each game and has also been over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in seven consecutive games, something only four quarterbacks managed to do versus New England all season long. New England definitely has not faced a quarterback as strong as Ryan this season, but the quarterbacks we’d qualify as just average and above average options they’ve faced all season were more than adequate fantasy performers against them. Russell Wilson (26.5 points), Ben Roethlisberger (17.6), Andy Dalton (21.9), Joe Flacco (20.1) and Carson Palmer (18.9) all posted good fantasy games against the Patriots. I believe both Brady and Ryan both push past 20 fantasy points, but if you’re making me choose who is the better fantasy option, I’ll slightly edge to Brady.
Running Backs
3. Dion Lewis
5. James White
With both of these teams playing with such an advantage on the scoreboard all season long, they each allow the bulk of the scoring done by opposing backfields to come through the air. In fact, the Patriots allow the most receptions (6.6) and receiving yards (51.8) per game to opposing backfields while Atlanta has allowed the next highest totals (6.4 receptions and 51.7 receiving yards) per game. The only difference is that New England has been better versus the ground game, allowing 3.6 yards per carry to backfields (third best), while Atlanta has allowed 4.3 yards per carry (20th).
The most rushing yards allowed by the Patriots to an individual back this season was 89 yards to David Johnson all the way back in Week 1 and just six individual backs have hit the century mark in yards from scrimmage against the Patriots this season. It’s doubtful that either Atlanta back will hit those marks on their own this weekend, but both backs combined pose a major all-purpose threat. In the eight games Atlanta has played since Coleman returned from injury, the Atlanta duo has averaged 168.6 yards from scrimmage on 30 touches per week (6.1 receptions per game) with 17 combined touchdowns. Even though the Patriots run defense has been excellent, I’d still look to either Atlanta back for their all-purpose ability over any individual piece from the fragmented New England backfield.
Freeman edges Coleman in weekly snaps as the split runs roughly 60 to 40 percent in Freeman’s favor, but the Atlanta offense treats both Freeman and Coleman as near equals, hardly altering their offensive attack regardless of which back is in the game. When Freeman is on the field, Atlanta runs 40.3 percent of their plays as opposed to 38.2 percent with Coleman in the game.
Both Freeman and Coleman have each have scored a touchdown in three straight games coming in, but Freeman has 34 red zone touches to 21 for Coleman over that span. Inside of the 10-yard line, Coleman closes the gap in usage as Freeman has had 17 touches to 12 for Coleman over the same timeframe.
The Patriots backfield has the better paper matchup, but their backfield is much more compartmentalized. Over the past eight games when all three of the New England backs were active, here’s the average breakdown of their usage and how the Patriots have called plays when each is in the game.
NE RB Usage with All Three Active
| Player | Snaps/Gm | Pass % | Run % |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 28.7 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| Dion Lewis | 23.7 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| James White | 23.6 | 92.5% | 7.5% |
*Per Pro Football Focus
The Patriots run the ball 63.9 percent of the time when Blount is in the game as opposed to throwing the ball 56.8 percent of the time Lewis is on the field. James White also makes his way into the lineup for about a third of the offensive snaps per week, and his splits are the most drastic as New England has called a passing play 92.5 percent of the time White is on the field with their complete backfield.
Projecting a Belichick game plan is foolhardy at best from a novice such as me, but with Lewis being the most balanced back, I’d expect the core of the game plan to revolve around his versatility being in the game. It makes sense this week given Atlanta’s issues with receiving backs and his ability to work on the Atlanta linebackers in the passing game as Atlanta can be exploitable through a balanced attack in a neutral script. All of that said, with White being capable of shaving his way into the passing game and Blount having higher probability at reaching the end zone, Lewis is never an easy player to set ceiling expectations on for fantasy purposes.
Blount has at least one touchdown in 14 games this season, but hasn’t reached 60 yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 14. Since Lewis returned in Week 11, Blount has yet to reach 15 points in any game after hitting that mark in four of the opening nine games. There’s an inkling here that New England could use Blount early on to try muddy the game up from the start, preventing Atlanta from finding an early groove offensively in a similar fashion that Philadelphia was able to corral the Falcons, but I’d still put that in the lower range of probable outcomes. For one, Blount doesn’t offer the offensive versatility to incorporate a balanced attack without tipping play calling and second, the Patriots best weapon on offense is still Brady and attacking the Atlanta defense on the intermediate levels. Revolving the game plan around Blount as a priority would be doing a favor to Atlanta in a sense. If you’re leaning on Blount, I’m still anticipating relying on a short scoring plunge or two and salting away carries if New England is able to control the scoreboard, and those touches could be more than enough to make him the top fantasy asset out of this group in formats that don’t reward receptions.
Wide Receivers
1. Julio Jones
3. Chris Hogan
4. Mohamed Sanu
7. Justin Hardy
Jones is the lone true alpha receiver in this game and he’s scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, matching the second longest streak in his career. New England allowed just four 100-yard receivers on the season, but Malcolm Butler has really only ever shadowed Antonio Brown, so he’s not a lock to trail Jones on Sunday. Instead, the Patriots may opt to use the longer and bigger Eric Rowe (6’1”, 204) to match with the 6’4”, 220 pound Jones and give him help over the top. Under those circumstances, Butler would find Gabriel the most often in coverage.
In any event, we know New England will make it a priority to limit being throttled solely by Jones and unlike in year’s past, that may not matter. Atlanta has shown all season that they are willing to diversify their passing game and Ryan has not been reliant on just Jones doing all of the lifting in elevating his passing performance.
ATL WR Rating
| Player | Targets | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 145 | 98 | 1656 | 9 | 4 | 115.2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 90 | 68 | 749 | 6 | 0 | 121.9 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 55 | 41 | 674 | 6 | 1 | 144.1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 34 | 20 | 323 | 2 | 0 | 110.3 |
| Justin Hardy | 32 | 23 | 221 | 4 | 0 | 130.3 |
*Per Pro Football Focus
That diversification has also made Jones a more effective receiver. Jones has averaged 16.9 yards per reception on the season, his best mark since his rookie season as his 31 receptions of 20 yards or more are the most in the NFL over the entirety of the season. I’d anticipate that Atlanta will move Jones around often and run him out of stacks to free opportunities for him, but regardless of the approach that New England takes to neutralize Jones, he’s still the premier talent at the receiver position in this game.
After Jones, the rest of the Atlanta receiving group is more about the sum of its parts than having an individual shine if Jones fails to hit his ceiling. As mentioned, Butler could end up being on Gabriel the most often --especially when Atlanta is not in their base offensive personnel-- which would dampen his outlook since Gabriel is a hyper volatile option to begin with. Although he scored seven total touchdowns (six receiving) and has averaged 16.4 yards per receptions (eighth in the league), Gabriel has never had more than six targets in any game this season and has had more than four receptions just twice with a season-high of five. Even at his best, he’s inherently required to do a lot on marginal opportunity.
Sanu has also scored in three consecutive games and his nine targets inside of the 10-yard line are tied with Jones and Hardy for the team lead on the season. Outside of chasing a touchdown, there’s not much of a ceiling here, however. Sanu has hit 15 points (.5 PPR) just twice all season and the last time he did so was in Week 8 as he’s averaged 45.2 yards per game over that span. The Patriots have also been much better defending slot receivers since the beginning of the season. Over their past 10 games, just one receiver has scored from the slot against the Patriots. Sanu will square off with Logan Ryan the most often, but something in the neighborhood of a five to six catch game for 40-60 receiving yards is his most likely outcome.
On the New England side, Edelman has been a target machine since Rob Gronkowski was injured in Week 10. He’s averaged 12.3 targets per game over that span and has at least eight receptions in six of those nine games. He’s also flashed a high ceiling lately as that hot stretch includes posting three straight games with eight receptions and 100-yards receiving. Edelman runs a little over half of his routes from the slot, where he’ll have the best individual matchup against Brian Poole. Edelman has the safest floor on the board Sunday and has shown his upside in terms of yardage over the past three weeks. If he ended up outscoring Jones I wouldn’t blink.
Hogan saved the best game of his career in the Conference Championship, catching nine of 12 targets for 180 yards and two scores. He’s now had 95 yards and 180 yards in the two games this postseason. In a way, he’s the New England rich man’s version of Taylor Gabriel in this game. He’s cleared six targets just twice all season and has more than four receptions just twice as well, but his 18.7 yards per receptions is the highest of any player this year with 25 or more receptions. Hogan will see some of Jalen Collins, but his usage is relatively split evenly where he lines up, meaning we shouldn’t let any individual matchup between sway us in any direction on his outcome. Quarterback confidence may not be quantifiable, but we know it’s relevant, and the recent connection between Hogan and Brady is riding high entering this Sunday.
It’s hard to invoke a ton of confidence on Mitchell as he’s had just 48 yards total over his past three games played on just 10 targets and has surpassed 42 yards in a game just twice all season. He’s still a factor near the end zone, but Hogan has clearly surpassed him as the best secondary option in the New England receiving corps.
Tight Ends
Bennett is extremely hard to place any faith in as someone to depend on, but he’s by far the best individual option of this group. Bennett has averaged just 3.9 targets per game over the nine games since Rob Gronkowski was injured in Week 10, totaling just 23 receptions for 233 yards over that span. Over that time, he’s cleared 35 yards in a game just one time. Atlanta has allowed double-digit PPR output to 13 different tight ends on the season and have allowed a touchdown to the opposing starting tight end in each of their two playoff games. Bennett is far from a confident play, but the matchup and player field are as clear as they can get in making him the top choice.
There’s just nothing to really point us in the direction of either Atlanta tight end. Since Austin Hooper has returned to the lineup for the playoffs, Hooper has run 45 routes to 41 for Toilolo as they’ve combined for just six receptions on nine targets. New England allowed just four touchdowns to opposing tight ends all season long and just two to reach 50-yards in a game this season.
Kicker
2. Matt Bryant
Like the quarterbacks, both of these kickers are great plays with me giving the slight edge to Gostkowski being the favorite. Gostkowski has double-digit points in five consecutive games and in seven of his past eight games played. Bryant has the most fantasy points on the season for any kicker and has rolled that over into the postseason, scoring 10 and eight points. Bryant has scored eight or more points in all but two games this season.
DST
1. New England
2. Atlanta
With how efficient each of these teams are on the offensive side, neither one of these defenses is in a great spot for tangible fantasy production. Atlanta is 23rd in sack rate allowed, so there’s an inline to some points for the Patriots, but that’s about the only ray of sunshine here on either side outside of falling into a special teams or defensive score out of the blue. Only one DST unit has scored more than five points in a game against Atlanta over their past 12 games while three of the past five have actually lost points. DST units against the Patriots are in nearly an identical spot as opposing teams have totaled just 20 fantasy points against the Patriots since Brady returned from suspension with three of the past four posting negative output.
