For those of you that are trying to cram in every morsel of fantasy football that the 2017 season must offer, playoff pools and DFS for postseason games are kicking off to fulfill our final fantasy needs. I’m going to take some space each week to rank the positions from the remaining teams as a guide to maximizing those final efforts.
The NFL is already an inherently volatile game weekly when we have 16 matchups to dissect, so when we cut the weekly player pool down to eight teams in four games, we’re inviting variance to run amuck. In DFS games, we can swerve into that variance to a degree by maximizing player exposure to cover as many angles as clairvoyantly possible. I typically avoid cash games for the NFL Playoffs, but want to run out as many different tournament lineups as possible in multi-entry fields over trying to hit a bullseye in single entry contests. If you’re someone doing a playoff pool, that is much tougher to do. My best advice in those pools is to try and maximize player games as much as possible as suggested in our overall playoff rankings.
Quarterbacks
1. Alex Smith (vs TEN): Smith threw 18 of his 26 touchdown passes on the road this season, but he was just fine over his final two home games of the year, posting 18.5 fantasy points against the Chargers and 17.5 points versus the Dolphins in Weeks 15-16. Smith gets a Titans Defense that ranked 26th in passing yardage allowed per game (256.3 yards) and 27th in passing points allowed per game (15.5) to opposing passers. Opposing teams threw 61.9 percent of the time against Tennessee this year, the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Titans also surrendered their share of big games, allowing four or more touchdown passes four times this season while no other team allowed more than two such games on the season.
2. Drew Brees (vs CAR): Brees is still playing productive football, but the fantasy points haven’t flowed because the Saints have rushed for so many touchdowns this season. Brees completed a career-high 72 percent of his passes with his highest yards per attempt (8.1) since 2011. The issue for Brees has been touchdown production as his 4.3 touchdown rate was his lowest in a season since 2007. The Saints rocked the Panthers 34-13 and 31-21 so far, this season and in his two games versus Carolina this season, Brees completed 74.6 percent of his passes for 220 and 269 yards (7.8 Y/A) with four touchdowns, including his only three or more passing touchdown game on the season back in that Week 3 contest. Carolina has also struggled to defend the pass of late, allowing 305 yards per game to opposing passers over their six games since their Week 11 bye, the most in the league.
3. Cam Newton (@ NO): Newton has at least 50-yards rushing in nine of his past 11 games, but he has thrown for more than 200 yards in just two of his past nine games while averaging just 6.2 yards per pass attempt over that span. Over those past 11 games, he has two monster games with four passing touchdowns each at home against Miami and Green Bay, but then just six passing touchdowns in the surrounding nine games over that timeframe. In his two games versus the Saints, he threw for just 167 and 183 yards, with Marshon Lattimore absent for the Saints in both meetings. Newton is tricky because his scoring has been so one-sided for fantasy, but he has major upside compared to the field of passers this weekend if he hits his ceiling.
Editor’s Note: Here are 6 DFS plays for your Wild Card lineups. Check out this FREE video and dominate this week!
4. Jared Goff (vs ATL): Goff had a strong back half of the season, throwing 19 touchdowns to just three interceptions in the final eight games of the year after the Rams bye week. Over that span, he posted at least 14.8 passing points in six of those eight games and has thrown multiple touchdowns passes in five straight games entering the postseason. The only thing keeping Goff in check for reasonable expectations over posting a high-ceiling week is that Atlanta isn’t a pushover as a pass defense as they ranked 11th in passing yardage allowed (232.8) per game to passers while ranking 11th in touchdown rate allowed (6.1 percent).
5. Blake Bortles (vs BUF): There’s a major drop off from the top four passers listed to the bottom half of the position. Bortles is the one home favorite from the bottom of the position and he closed the season strong fantasy purposes, but this game sets up for Jacksonville to play the type of game they truly want to play, which is to protect the game with their running attack and defense. Buffalo allowed just 14 passing touchdowns all season long (second) and 6.7 yards per attempt (ninth), while they just could not stop the run over the back half of the season.
6. Matt Ryan (@ LAR): For the first time since his rookie season, Ryan failed to have a game in which he threw more than two touchdown passes while he hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 11. The Rams allowed 15 or more fantasy points to just five passers all season long and one of those came in Week 17, in a throw away game.
7. Marcus Mariota (@ KC): Mariota posted career-worst marks in touchdown rate (2.9 percent), interception rate (3.3 percent), yards per attempt (7.1) and yardage per game (215.5) this year while also rushing for a career-low 20.8 yards per game. He gets a tough draw heading to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have played their best defense. Opposing passers averaged 240.1 yards and 14.1 fantasy points per game in Kansas City as opposed to 277.6 yards and 19.9 points per game at home while just two quarterbacks threw multiple touchdown passes against the Chiefs on the road this season.
8. Tyrod Taylor (@ JAC): I don’t need to run down a bunch of stats to explain how poor of a passing matchup this is for Taylor and the Bills, especially with their offensive compromised by a potentially hobbled LeSean McCoy. The one ray of sunshine for Taylor is that Jacksonville allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season and all of the mobile passers they faced had success tacking on some rushing points. They allowed 31 and 36 yards rushing to Jacoby Brissett, 24 and 60 yards to Marcus Mariota, 50 yards to Russell Wilson and another 22 yards to DeShone Kizer. Taylor is going to have to carry his fantasy line on the ground.
Running Backs
1. Todd Gurley (vs ATL): Running back is loaded for Wild Card weekend as we have many of the backs we’ve leaned on all season long as home favorites. The Falcons have been excellent versus the run over the past six weeks, holding opposing backfields to 385 rushing yards on 110 carries over the past six weeks- including holding the dynamic New Orleans backfield to just 76 and 51 rushing yards- while they haven’t allowed a back to reach 100-yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 6. But Atlanta allowed the most receptions to the running back position while Gurley was second among all running backs in PPR receiving points on the year behind Alvin Kamara. Gurley posted 144.7 yards from scrimmage per game over the final 10 games of the season with 21.8 or more PPR points in each of his final four games of the regular season.
2. Alvin Kamara (vs CAR): Both Saints’ running backs are great options, but Kamara has held a higher fantasy floor regarding the New Orleans backfield since his passing game production carries greater weight, even in standard scoring formats. Since the trade of Adrian Peterson, Kamara averages 110.3 yards from scrimmage and has at least 76 total yards in all his complete games played over that stretch. Over the final six weeks of the season, Kamara out-gained Mark Ingram by 127 yards and that was with Kamara basically missing an entire game over that span.
3. Leonard Fournette (vs BUF): Fournette averaged just 3.2 yards per carry over his final seven games after averaging 4.6 YPC over his first six games of the season, but maintained his high usage and scoring upside with 22.7 touches and three touchdowns over that span. Sunday sets up for the Jaguars to ride Fournette to victory. He gets a Buffalo team that has allowed a league-high 159.2 rushing yards per game over the past nine weeks with 4.9 YPC to opposing running backs over that stretch.
4. Kareem Hunt (vs TEN): The Chiefs leaned on Hunt down the stretch, giving him 28, 31 and 33 touches over the three games prior to Week 17 when he handled one carry (which happened to be a 35-yard touchdown run) while Hunt found the end zone five times over the past four weeks. Tennessee has been a bit of a pass-funnel defense, ranking fourth in opposing rushing rate (38.1 percent), fifth in rushing yardage allowed per game to running backs (74.8) and fourth in yards per carry allowed to opposing backfields (3.4 YPC), but as a heavy home-field favorite with ability to catch passes, Hunt is still a strong option. Since their Week 8 bye, Tennessee has struggled to defend backs out of the backfield. Over that span, they’ve allowed receiving lines of 7-44-1 to Buck Allen, 9-57-0 to Le’Veon Bell, 5-56 to Andre Ellington, 10-158-2 to Todd Gurley and 4-67-0 to Leonard Fournette.
5. Mark Ingram (vs CAR): Ingram has rushed for fewer than 50 yards in four of his past six games and has had 14 or fewer carries in seven straight games, but he’s still always in play for a touchdown and has had success versus the Panthers this year. Only Gurley (13) had more rushing touchdowns than Ingram’s 12 on the season and Ingram had multiple rushing touchdowns in three different games this season. In his two games versus Carolina, Ingram posted 86 and 122 yards from scrimmage while averaging 5.0 YPC.
6. Derrick Henry (@ KC): With DeMarco Murray out once again, Henry is line to push 20 touches once again this weekend. The only problem with that is that over the past four weeks, Henry has posted 115 yards rushing 51 carries (2.3 YPC) as the Titans run game has floundered. Henry salvaged his game last week with a 66-yard screen pass for a score, but had just 70 yards receiving on the season prior, so it’s hard to count on passing work aiding him here. The Chiefs can be run on, ranking 25th in rushing yards allowed (99.3) to backfields per game and 21st in yards per attempt (4.2) to backs, but Henry carries a low floor if the Titans fall behind as a road underdog.
7. Christian McCaffrey (@ NO): McCaffrey is clearly a better option in formats that reward receptions as he had more than 64 yards from scrimmage in just five games on the season, but paced all running backs with 113 targets on the year with 80 catches. He turned in two solid fantasy days versus the Saints, with receiving lines of 9-101-0 and 5-33-1 while totaling 32 rushing yards on 10 carries in the two meetings between these teams.
8. Devonta Freeman (@ LAR): Freeman is dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss practice so far this week, so he needs to be monitored. We’d suspect that ends up playing, however. It’s hard to place much stock in his 9-85 receiving line in the season finale as he had more than three receptions in just two games on the season prior, but Freeman has had 20 or more touches in three of his final four games to close the regular season with 91, 194, 56 and 108 yards from scrimmage in those four games. The Rams can be run, ranking 31st in rushing points allowed per game (16.0) to opposing backfields, but the question will be how long can the Falcons stay with the run game as road underdogs and if Atlanta will roll over the Week 17 use of their backs in the passing game.
9. LeSean McCoy (@ JAC): McCoy left the season finale with a severe ankle sprain and although x-rays came back negative, it’s doubtful that he puts much work in this week prior to the game on Sunday. Even if he plays, it’s hard to anticipate McCoy being full strength in a game in which the Bills are already 7.5-point road underdogs. Without even factoring the Jaguars Defense into the equation yet, the Bills and McCoy haven’t exactly lit things up on the road, either. McCoy scored just two of his nine touchdowns on the road this season while rushing for 3.5 YPC and 58.1 yards per game away from home this season even when you remove his Week 17 game from his totals.
10. Tevin Coleman (@ LAR): We’ll revisit this if Freeman can’t overcome his knee ailment, but Coleman averages 11 touches for 59.5 total yards in games played alongside with Devonta Freeman on the year. He has cleared that average yardage in just four of those 13 games played with the Atlanta backfield at capacity. The most disappointing part about Coleman’ 2017 usage is that he’s had two or fewer receptions in eight of those 13 games with a high of four receptions in any of those games.
11. Jonathan Stewart: After missing Week 17 with a back injury, Stewart is expected to back for this week’s playoff game. Stewart had success versus New Orleans this year, rushing 23 times for 102 yards and touchdown over the two meetings, but you inherently know that you must get a rushing score form him to be fruitful for fantasy purposes as a road underdog. Stewart averaged 48.8 yards from scrimmage per game on the season and in the 11 games in which he failed to find the end zone, he averaged just 5.5 PPR points.
Final Tier: Mike Tolbert, Marcus Murphy, T.J. Yeldon, Charcandrick West
Tolbert and Murphy are only options if McCoy fails to play on Sunday. In Week 17, Tolbert had eight touches for 45 yards while Murphy had nine touches for 48 yards. Murphy would be the better of the two considering potential game script, but neither are exciting…Most of Yeldon’s output over the past eight weeks has come while the Jaguars trailed in games, something that isn’t expected here.
Wide Receivers
1. Michael Thomas (vs CAR): After a hamstring scare that forced him to play just 64 percent of the snaps in Wek 16, Thomas was back to full speed to close the season, playing 91 percent of the snaps. Thomas has five or more receptions in 14-of-16 games on the season and posted 7-87-1 and 5-70-1 on the Panthers in their two meetings on the season. The Panthers have allowed 100-yards and/or a touchdown to eight of the past nine WR1s they’ve faced.
2. Tyreek Hill (vs TEN): After starting the season as a boom or bust option, Hill was as steady as they come to close the year, posting double-digit PPR points in each of his final seven games. Hill had crazy home/road splits on the season, scoring only scored one of his seven touchdown passes in Arrowhead while averaging 57.9 yards per game at home compared to 102.9 yards per game at home, but he had games of 75, 88 and 109 yards in each of his final three home games to close the year. Tennessee allowed the fourth-fewest pass plays of 20 or more yards in the league, but Hill has been too steady to move below anyone else listed.
3. Julio Jones (@ LAR): Seasonal owners were discouraged by Jones’ lack of big weeks, but he was still a consistent fantasy option. After the Falcon’ Week 5 bye, Jones tied for the league lead in targets (118), was fifth in receptions (69) and led the league in receiving yardage (1,149). Sure, his stats were anchored by his monster Week 12 game, but he had five or more catches in nine of those 13 games and double-digit PPR points in 11 of those games. Still, the expectations with Jones should be to play from the floor up, rather than count on a huge week and the Rams only allowed four touchdowns to opposing WR1s on the season and just six to hit 80-yards receiving.
4. Robert Woods (vs ATL): The Rams’ passing game is flat in terms of passing game distribution, but Woods is just a tick ahead of the others at 7.1 targets per game and has shown the steadiest floor from the group. In the nine games in which he failed to score a touchdown, Woods still managed double-digit PPR points in five of them and averaged 55 yards per game in those contests.
5. Cooper Kupp (vs ATL): In terms of DFS pricing, I’d rather play Kupp than Woods as Kupp has a better individual matchup than Woods on the interior, but also is far more touchdown dependent to carry a solid fantasy line. Kupp reached double-digit PPR points just twice all season long in a game without a touchdown while Woods was active. You can chase the touchdown as Kupp led the Rams with seven targets inside of the 10-yard line this season.
6. Devin Funchess (@ NO): The receiver position is filled with options that you won’t totally feel good about outside of the top 2-3, and Funchess is far from an option you’re going to feel good about using. He has just 13 receptions for 197 yards over his past five games, but has found the end zone three times. He notched a 4-60-1 line versus the Saints back in Week 13, but New Orleans was without Marshon Lattimore and Funchess didn’t catch a pass until the third quarter. You’re playing him in hopes of finding the end zone.
7. Mohamed Sanu (@ LAR): Sanu has outscored Julio in PPR formats in five of the past 10 weeks largely because he holds more touchdown upside than Jones has had this season. Sanu leads the Falcons with five receiving touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line. The Rams have had their moments struggling with slot receivers, allowing five or more catches to all of Nelson Agholor, Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Sterling Shepard, and Adam Thielen on the season.
8. Rishard Matthews (@ KC): Of the Titan’s wideouts, Matthews offers the most upside. Matthews had 14 receptions of 20 or more yards while the rest of the Tennessee wide receivers combined for 13 on the season. Matthews will line up across from Marcus Peters most of the Tennessee receivers as 45 percent of his routes come at the RWR position, but that still leaves him with 55 percent of his routes away in the direction of Darrelle Revis and Steven Nelson. Matthews also has shown he can beat Peters, catching a 46-yard pass on him last year while adding a 35-yarder in that same game against Nelson.
9. Ted Ginn (vs CAR): We’re well into no man’s land at the position where we’re just hoping to run into something from these discounted options. Ginn had more than three receptions in just three games with three or fewer catches in half of his games on the season. Carolina has allowed eight touchdowns to wide receivers since their Week 11 bye and 11 pass plays of 30-yards or longer over that span with four touchdowns on those completions.
10. Allen Hurns (vs BUF): Whether Marqise Lee returns to action this week or not, Hurns is the Jaguars’ receiver I have the most confidence in based on where defenses attack the Bills in the passing game. Because the Bills play so much zone, they don’t give up tons of splash plays and allow a lot of underneath receptions. Hurns returned to play 78.3 percent of the snaps in Week 17, which was right on par for his normal use. 97 percent of his routes in that game came from the slot, where is where he’ll be Sunday. You can’t count on a receiving touchdown as the Bills allowed the second-fewest passing scores on the year, and Jacksonville likely won’t throw it a lot to begin with, but Buffalo gave up a healthy amount of receptions to receivers who operate out of the slot.
11. Sammy Watkins (vs ATL): You can chase a touchdown as Watkins has scored a touchdown in six of his past eight games despite having more than three receptions in just one of his past 12 games.
12. Marqise Lee/ Dede Westbrook/Keelan Cole (vs BUF): With Lee missing the past two weeks and the Jaguars unlikely to be pressed into throwing the ball a lot, I’m passing on Lee in all formats, but if he averaged 5.1 catches for 61.8 yards over his eight games prior to injury. But Lee’s potential return also makes Westbrook and Cole a sketchy combo. Lee’s return could push Cole completely out as Cole has been filling in at both Hurns’ and Lee’s positions. Hurns is locked into the slot and Westbrook would get the bulk of the burn at flanker, but we know Cole has played his way into snaps and could split time with Westbrook and even spell Lee if they want to take it easy on Lee’s snap count. Given the question marks of playing time between these three, Jacksonville set up to be run-heavy and the Bills not surrendering passing scores, Hurns is the only Jaguars wideout I feel okay regardless if Lee returns or not.
15. Eric Decker (@ KC): Decker scored just one touchdown and averaged just 35.2 yards per game, so he should move the needle a lot for you. Still, you’re going to have to punt somewhere this weekend and he has 32 targets over his past five games and will get the most work of this receiving group on the inside versus Steven Nelson, the most advantageous draw for the passing game.
16. Kelvin Benjamin (@ JAC): In six games since joining the Bills, Benjamin has amassed 16 catches for 217 yards and a touchdown. He had three or fewer catches in five of those six games and is still not playing 100 percent healthy. All that lines up to make him easily avoidable against the Jaguars secondary that has only had hiccups giving up vertical plays to speed receivers late in the season.
Final Tier: Taylor Gabriel, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Demarcus Robinson, Deonte Thompson, Russell Shepard, Brandon Coleman, Justin Hardy, Pharoh Cooper, Kaelin Clay, Willie Snead, Brenton Bersin, Tavon Austin
The final bucket of wide receiver plays and punts at the position… Even prior to a huge Week 17 line, Wilson had seven or more targets in three of his previous five games prior to the finale, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury…Corey Davis will run 62 percent of his routes in the direction of Revis and Nelson, but he’s averaged three catches per game since returning to the lineup in Week 9… You can use Pharoh Cooper along with the Rams DST for the rainbow-chasing double special team touchdown only…Brenton Bersin has played 79 and 57 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and has eight targets while Kaelin Clay got the biggest spike now that Damiere Byrd has been placed on IR, playing a season-high 69 percent of the snaps in Week 17 and playing on 31 pass plays to 25 for Bersin.
Tight Ends
1. Travis Kelce (vs TEN): There’s a clear gap between Kelce and the rest of the tight end field this weekend. He scored a career-high eight touchdowns after scoring nine total over the previous two season. Tennessee ranked 21st in receptions allowed to tight ends and 23rd in yardage surrendered to the position in the regular season and allowed double-digit PPR point to every top-12 tight end they faced on the season.
2. Delanie Walker (@ KC): Walker has limped to the finish line with 89 yards total over the final three games of the season, but he’s still an easy call to be slotted behind Kelce. Walker accounted for 22.4 percent of the Tennessee targets on the season, which was the highest target for a tight end outside of Kelce (22.5 percent) on the season. The Chiefs allowed the third-fewest receptions to the tight end position this season and allowed just three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but did allow big yardage per opportunity as they were 21st in yardage allowed to the position.
3. Charles Clay (@ JAC): With LeSean McCoy injured and Kelvin Benjamin tied up with the elite Jacksonville secondary, Clay is just about all the Bills have this week outside of Tyrod Taylor’s legs. Clay hasn’t been exciting, averaging just 37.5 yards per game over his eight games since returning to the lineup, but he does have 29.1 percent of the Buffalo targets over the past four games with 17 receptions.
4. Greg Olsen (@ NO): Olsen has had one huge game versus the Packers, but has 27 yards or fewer in each of his other six games this season. Despite the lackluster production, the targets have been there as Olsen has 29.7 percent of the Carolina targets over the past three weeks. Opportunity is all you can count on as the Saints allowed the fewest receptions and yardage to opposing tight ends this season and four of the six touchdowns they allowed to the position were to backups.
Final Tier: Austin Hooper, Tyler Higbee, Marcedes Lewis, Josh Hill, Demetrius Harris, Nick O’Leary, James O’Shaughnessy, Gerald Everett
Outside of the top four at the position, you’re just fishing for a touchdown. Hooper hasn’t had more than three catches in a game since Week 10 and just four tight ends reached 50-yards receiving against the Rams this season… Higbee ran a route on just 34.9 percent of his snaps this season…Lewis led the Jaguars in receiving touchdowns this season, but three came in one game and he’s dealing with ankle injury.
Kickers
1. Harrison Butker (vs TEN)
2. Wil Lutz (vs CAR)
3. Josh Lambo (vs BUF)
4. Sam Ficken (vs ATL)
5. Matt Bryant (@ LAR)
6. Graham Gano (@ NO)
7. Ryan Succop (@ KC)
8. Steven Haushka (@ JAC)
Notes: No secret here as we’re sticking with the home favorites across the board to start off. Butker is clearly the top play as Tennessee allowed the most field goals on the season and Butker was stellar in Kansas City wins, averaging 14.9 fantasy points in those seven games with a low of nine… Lutz put up 12 and seven points in his two games versus Carolina…The Jaguars rank second in fewest field goal attempts faced while the Chiefs rank sixth.
D/ST
1. Jaguars
2. Chiefs
3. Saints
4. Rams
5. Bills
6. Falcons
7. Panthers
8. Titans
Notes: Following similar thoughts as we did with the kickers, we’re targeting the favorites this week, primarily focusing on fitting the Jaguars or Chiefs into most lineups. Jacksonville was the number one fantasy defense all season long and will draw a Bills team that hasn’t played well on the road this season and will have their best offensive player limited… the last time the Chiefs allowed more than 21 points at Arrowhead was Week 1 of 2016 and the last time that a team scored three offensive touchdowns against them at home was Week 7 of that season, a span of 14 games. They’ve had double-digit fantasy points in three of their past four games with at least eight points in all four of those games…the Saints have a whopping nine interceptions over their past four games and were the top scoring defense in their meeting with Carolina on Week 3, but posted just four points in their Week 13 meeting and just two of the past 13 defenses to face Carolina have scored double-digit points... Just one team (DET) notched a DST1 caliber week against the Saints this season and just two managed to reach double-digit points against the Chiefs on the year. No need to get cute there outside of getting lucky.
