Any week in which Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for six touchdowns is going to be crazy, but Week 13 of the NFL season seemed crazier than most. There were a ton of huge individual performances, a game with two punt blocks returned for touchdowns and the long-awaited arrival of Johnny Football. Unfortunately, amid the great action was also a fair amount of injuries.
The most significant of which was a hip pointer suffered by Andre Ellington in the second quarter against Atlanta. Ellington could return as early as Week 14 though a lot will depend on how the hip responds to treatment during the week. Arizona has a good matchup against the Chiefs this week, but neither Michael Bush nor Marion Grice nor Stepfan Taylor will be worth a start if Ellington is forced to miss.
Rashad Jennings did not play on the Giants’ final two drives against the Jaguars after suffering an ankle injury. Jennings could not press down on the ankle on the sideline but said after the game he should be able to play Week 14. Andre Williams will step in if Jennings cannot go, but he only averaged 41 yards a game with Jennings on the sidelines earlier in the year. Even so, Williams would be a borderline RB2 if he gets the start against a soft Titans run defense Week 14.
DeSean Jackson suffered a bruised fibula against the Colts. He originally suffered the injury in the second quarter but was able to come back into the game and even caught a touchdown pass in the third. He left the game for good after aggravating the injury later in the third quarter. The injury requires rest, which means Jackson is unlikely to practice much if at all this week. He could still conceivably play Week 14, but he is at best 50-50. Pierre Garcon saw nine targets on Sunday and would find his way onto the WR3 map if Jackson is forced to miss.
Torrey Smith was absent from the Ravens’ critical final drive on Sunday after tweaking his knee. He was spotted limping in the locker room following the game, though John Harbaugh expressed zero concern about Smith’s availability for Week 14. Smith has eight touchdowns already this season and has emerged as a solid WR2 over the last several weeks.
Sammy Watkins injured his hip at some point in the Bills’ Week 13 win over the Browns. He played on every snap though he only managed three receptions for 11 yards on nine targets. Coach Doug Marrone said he has no idea if Watkins will be able to play Week 14. Robert Woods has come on strong with 18 targets over the last two games and would be on the WR3 map if Watkins is forced to miss time.
The Titans lost both Justin Hunter and Zach Mettenberger to injury on Sunday. Hunter suffered a lacerated spleen that required a multiple-night stay at a Houston-area hospital. Hunter should be fine in the long term, but it would be a surprise if he suits up again this season. He will likely land on injured reserve in the near future. Nate Washington an interesting play in deeper leagues while Hunter is sidelined. Mettenberger missed most of the second half with an injury to his right throwing shoulder. The Titans said the injury is “not bad,” and Mettenberger expects to play Week 14.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $2.25 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 14’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $250,000. Starts Sunday, December 7th at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
Stock Up
All aboard the Kenny Stills express. Stills racked up 162 yards and a touchdown on five catches Week 13 against the Steelers and now has a team-high 15 targets in the two weeks since Brandin Cooks was placed on injured reserve.
I was cautiously optimistic about Stills leading up to the season. He had shown incredibly well as a part-time player in 2013, catching 32 passes for 641 yards and five touchdowns while playing on roughly 60 percent of the Saints’ snaps. He also caught 64 percent of his targets while averaging over 20 yards a reception. Mike Wallace is the only other player with at least 30 receptions to accomplish that feat in the last 20 years.
The issue with Stills is while the targets have been there the playing time has not. Stills played on 25-of-57 snaps against the Steelers and has now played on 58 percent of the Saints’ snaps the last two weeks. Nick Toon has seen basically the same number of snaps the last two weeks.
I expect Stills to see his snap count grow as he continues to put in excellent performances, but he is destined to have a down week at some point in the Saints’ spread-the-wealth offense. That uncertainty makes him nothing more than a WR3 for the rest of the season, though he has a much higher ceiling Week 14 against the Panthers’ hapless secondary.
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C.J. Anderson’s breakout came several weeks ago, but what he had done over the last two weeks has to be acknowledged. Anderson rushed 32 times for 168 yards Week 13 against the Chiefs and has 59 carries for 335 yards over the last two games. He has accounted for 45% of the Broncos’ total yards over that span.
The real question is can Anderson keep this going. Knowshon Moreno had an eerily similar run of games Week 10 and 11 of 2013. He did not see more than 15 carries again the rest of the regular season. Moreno was dealing with a bit of a nagging injury, but it is at least feasible the return of Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball could significantly lighten Anderson’s workload.
Anderson has put together the best four-game stretch of any Broncos’ running back this season, and it is clear to me he is the Broncos’ best option at running back regardless of health. Unfortunately, it is likely Ronnie Hillman at least has a role when he returns from injury. That could be several weeks away, though, and Anderson should still be a 15-plus touch a game player once Hillman returns. Anderson will be a solid starter in the fantasy playoffs.
Donte Moncrief exploded for 134 yards and two touchdowns Week 13 against Washington, gashing the Skins for scores of 48 and 79 yards. Moncrief started the game and played 28-of-53 snaps. More importantly, he out-snapped Hakeem Nicks for the second straight week and appears to be establishing himself as the No. 3 receiver in Indianapolis.
Long on athletic ability, Moncrief has produced big whenever he has been given the opportunity this season, and it appears he will be given more and more opportunities as the season wears on. Moncrief will be someone I target heavily this week as I try to load my playoff bench with high-upside players.
Jordan Reed gained 123 yards on a team-high 11 targets Week 13 against the Colts. He looked healthy as he ran through and around Colts’ defenders all day. Reed was targeted three times inside the 11 and was literally inches away from a touchdown in the third quarter.
Colt McCoy has always loved his tight ends and has targeted Reed 18 times in his two starts this season. As long as Reed stays healthy, McCoy will give him the opportunities to be a quality TE1.
Stedman Bailey caught 5-of-6 targets for 100 yards Week 13 against the Raiders. All five of his catches came when the game was still in doubt in the first quarter, and he looked to clearly be the No. 1 option in the passing game. Bailey has 15 targets in the two games since Shaun Hill took over as quarterback.
It is hard to put a lot of faith in the Rams’ passing game, but they do have a decently easy schedule in the fantasy playoffs. He could have another big game Week 14 against Washington, and I am not terrified to start him in deeper formats. Bailey at least needs to be owned in all leagues.
Stash and See
These players may not be worthy of a start Week 14, but they are certainly worthy of a roster spot.
Jonathan Stewart rushed 12 times for 85 yards against the Vikings. He only played 42-of-77 snaps but should see a big jump in snaps if DeAngelo Williams (broken hand) is unable to play Week 14. … With Justin Hunter likely done for awhile, Nate Washington is worth a look in deeper formats. He had nine targets and a touchdown Week 14. … Robert Woods has 18 targets over the last two games and could be the de facto No. 1 in Buffalo if Sammy Watkins misses any time. … Marqise Lee only played on 51-of-71 snaps but was far more effective than Cecil Shorts or Allen Hurns. … Harry Douglas once again showed he is a fantasy worthy player when Roddy White is out. … I am not interested in starting Johnny Manziel in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, but he is worth an add as a potential championship winner.
Stock Down
Colin Kaepernick was an unmitigated disaster against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night. He completed 16-of-29 passes for 121 yards and two interceptions, though he only had 90 yards before a meaningless final drive. He could not locate the ball down the field and missed several times up the field on intermediate out routes. Two of those errant passes fell right into the arms of Richard Sherman, who could have had a third on a very similar throw.
Kaepernick has not scored multiple touchdowns since Week 6 and has not surpassed 15 fantasy points in any game over that span. I suppose he still carries some theoretical rushing upside, but he has not gained over 50 yards on the ground since Week 4 and has yet to find the endzone on the ground this year. The 49ers offense is broken, Jim Harbaugh is checked out and Kaepernick is regressing. I would not trust my playoff future to him even in a decent matchup Week 14 against the Raiders, and he is no longer a must hold.
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Isaiah Crowell threw down a clunker against the Bills’ tough run defense on Sunday, rushing 17 times for 29 yards. The terrible performance might put some off of the talented Crowell, but it is important to put this performance into context. Crowell still easily out-snapped Terrance West 48-to-25, and West had a costly fumble that coach Mike Pettine reamed him for on Monday.
The best runner on the roster, it is clear this job is Crowell’s to lose, and that job could be lucrative with Johnny Manziel running the offense from here on out. We have seen what Robert Griffin III does for Alfred Morris when he plays, and Manziel’s rushing ability should similarly open up holes for Crowell. At $400 cheaper than he was last week on FanDuel, Crowell will be a nice value play in DFS this week.
It was fairly predictable the 35-year-old Steve Smith would fade down the stretch, so his recent falloff is not that surprising. Smith has not surpassed 100 receiving yards since Week 6 and has one touchdown reception over that span. Smith is averaging 41 yards receiving over the last six games and had just two yards on one reception against the Chargers on Sunday as he struggled to separate from Brandon Flowers.
Smith did manage a long reception Week 12 against the Saints, but aside from that he has been very quiet over the last several games. It is likely he is simply slowing down after something of a fluky start, and it is unlikely he regains the form he carried through the first six games of the season. He is a risky WR3 against the Dolphins this week.
The Purge
These players are unlikely to make any noise this season. They are not must drops, but can be replaced without worry.
Cordarrelle Patterson played three snaps against the Panthers. It is not going to happen this season. … The San Francisco offense is broken, and Vernon Davis is broken with it. … Doug Baldwin is averaging 35 yards a game since his Week 7 breakout. … Hakeem Nicks has fallen behind Donte Moncrief on the depth chart and was not any good to begin with. … Terrance Williams has eight targets and three catches the last three games. … Justin Hunter may not play again this season and was not lighting up the box score anyway. … Reggie Wayne is just not the same player anymore. He is not even a WR4 in standard formats.
