However unfair, however unjust, however fluky, it comes down to one week.
That Week 17 will decide who wins and who loses their fantasy league championships is, in many ways, outrageous, a naked violation of justice. Teams that have buzzsawed through the competition for the past four months could fall to deeply flawed, vastly inferior fantasy squads that just happen to have a touchdown-filled week. Teams that limped into the fantasy playoffs with an objectively weak roster could end up raising the championship banner. This game of ours can be cruel.
Maybe you’re old enough to remember my book series on how to deal with the psychological torment of fantasy football’s maddening variance. Researching and writing the How To Win books was a thinly-veiled form of catharsis after a series of heart-wrenching fantasy postseason losses I suffered a decade ago. I was down and out, so I wrote. And as I wrote, I understood how our brains deal with decision making and the aftermath of those choices.
Do your best, abide by the process that has gotten you here -- to the precipice of fantasy glory -- and know there’s nothing else to do. Variance might have its way with you. Even better: It might not.
This week’s column isn’t as comprehensive as its predecessors, mostly because there’s no reason to stash players for the coming weeks. This is it. Let’s get into Week 17 waiver wire pickups that could make a difference in your anxiety-ridden championship bouts.
Priority | Player | Team | Position | Rostership % |
1. | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 49% |
2. | Brandin Cooks | HOU | WR | 54% |
3. | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 38% |
4. | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 17% |
5. | D.J. Chark | DET | WR | 51% |
6. | Gardner Minshew | PHI | QB | 27% |
7. | Rashid Shaheed | NO | WR | 8% |
8. | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 37% |
9. | Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 27% |
10. | Greg Dortch | ARI | WR | 2% |
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew (PHI)
Rostership: 27 percent
Minshew, despite some ill-advised throws, was excellent for our purposes in Week 16 against a stingy Dallas defense. Minshew ranked third among all quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per play and fourth in pass rate over expected. Throwing to the league’s best receiver tandem is good for a guy’s fantasy prospects, it turns out.
This week Minshew gets a Saints defense that has been shockingly solid against the pass over the past eight weeks. Only the 49ers and Patriots have given up a lower EPA per drop back than the Saints since Week 8. They’re not getting to the passer -- New Orleans ranks 28th in pressure rate -- but somehow stopping opposing passing attacks.
The Saints are technically a pass funnel defense though, and have been for some time. Part of Minshew’s Week 16 appeal was his matchup against a Cowboys offense that could push the Eagles into an aggressive offensive game plan. That’s exactly what happened. The Saints don’t profile as such a team.
Brock Purdy (SF)
Rostership: 37 percent
Purdy is a perfect play, process wise. The Niners sport the week’s fifth highest implied total (25 points) and the Raiders -- San Francisco’s opponent -- is downright miserable against the pass. Only the Cardinals and Falcons allow a higher rate of positive pass plays than Vegas. The Raiders are allowing the fourth highest drop back EPA. Purdy has been hyper-efficient as the team’s starter and has one of the league’s best surrounding cast.
The 49ers could wreck the run-funnel Raiders and Purdy could still suffice as a QB2 in 12-team formats. His floor is as high as any quarterback you can find on your local waiver wire this week.
Mike White (NYJ)
Rostership: 17 percent
White is back as the Jets’ starter after spending three weeks asking upwards of a dozen doctors to let him play football with broken ribs. Of course, there is no correlation between Zach Wilson‘s odious play and White’s suddenly healthy ribs. None at all. So stop asking.
White gets a lip-smackingly good matchup this week against a Seahawks defense that has withered into one of the NFL’s worst over the past couple months. Since Week 7, in fact, Seattle has allowed the seventh highest EPA per play to enemy offenses. On the season, only four defenses have given up a higher drop back EPA than the Seabags. Though they’re the league’s fifth most extreme run funnel defense, the Seahawks can be shredded through the air.
White was third in QB drop backs from Week 12-14, before his injury. He could have the benefit of volume -- which he’ll need, since he’s not efficient -- if Geno Smith and company can push the Jets this week. White could be in line for some touchdown regression in Week 17: His 2.2 percent touchdown rate is miserably low, about half of what it was in his 2021 starts.
For those starting White against Seattle, beware: The Jets could reportedly expand Chris Streveler‘s package after his Week 16 success against the Jaguars. A significant role for Streveler -- especially in the red zone -- would be disastrous for White’s numbers.
Other quarterbacks to roster
Sam Darnold (7 percent): A little bit of rushing juice and more efficient passing production over the past two weeks has made Darnold a halfway decent superflex option (or streaming play in deep one-QB formats). The Panthers desperately do not want Darnold to enjoy anything resembling pass volume, but opponents keying in to stop the run has created favorable coverages for D.J. Moore and the Panthers’ pass catchers.
Malik Willis (2 percent): The Titans still don’t care to devise a game plan that fits Willis’ strengths. That’s a problem. But the rookie logged seven rushes for 41 yards and a touchdown last week against Houston. Maybe a blowout game script against the Cowboys on Thursday night will leave the Titans no other choice but to let Willis cook (on the ground) against a soft Dallas rush defense. He remains a (very) thin superflex option.
Carson Wentz (5 percent): The Commanders might turn to the red-headed stepchild in a must-win Week 17 game against the Browns. The Taylor Heinicke Experiment has come to its inevitable conclusion. Cleveland’s terrible rush defense is practically begging the Commanders to establish it as hard as humanly possible, but Wentz should be picked up in superflex formats this week.
Desmond Ridder (5 percent): The rookie showed signs of life last week against Baltimore. Ridder threw for 218 yards, which, adjusted for Arthur Smith‘s offense, is the equivalent of 769 yards. Atlanta faces the league’s foremost pass-funnel defense (Arizona) in Week 17. Maybe the Falcons will see what they have in Ridder, who has brought some rushing appeal with ten rushing attempts in his two starts.
Running Back
Editor’s note: If Cam Akers is available in your league -- he’s rostered in 67 percent -- he needs to be picked up and started. Akers’ workhorse role, which includes passing down work and goal line touches, gives him borderline RB1 upside, especially in a fantastic Week 17 matchup against a Chargers defense allowing the seventh highest rushing success rate.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
Rostership: 49 percent
The bowling ball of pure muscle seized the means of Atlanta’s backfield production in Week 16 against the Ravens, relegating Cordarrelle Patterson to 36 percent of the Falcons’ offensive snaps and leading the backfield with 22 touches for 120 yards. Importantly, Allgeier -- with Caleb Huntley on injured reserve -- led the backfield with a 55 percent route rate, catching four of five targets, and saw three of four backfield goal line snaps against Baltimore.
That Arizona, the Falcons’ Week 17 opponent, is the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel, doesn’t mean the Cards are nails against the rush. They are, in fact, quite bad. Arizona allows the seventh highest rate of positive rushes and the third highest rushing EPA since Week 8. On Christmas night, Tampa -- the league’s most putrid running offense -- managed 110 yards on the ground against the Cardinals.
Few, if any, running backs outside the elite tier have as much volume-based upside as Allgeier in Week 17. He needs to be in championship week lineups.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
Rostership: 38 percent
Carolina is running the ball as much as any high school team in the country. And to my great horror, it’s working wonderfully.
The Panthers have been the best offensive team in the NFL over the past four weeks, posting the top EPA per play and EPA per rush (by a huge margin). It’s their commitment to the run that has fueled carries for both D’Onta Foreman and Hubbard.
Foreman has 52 rushes to 30 attempts for Hubbard over the past four games; Hubbard has 13 receptions to just one for Foreman. Both Panthers backs have been among the league leaders in yards after contact per attempt. Carolina is running roughshod over all comers.
Hubbard, who has at least a dozen rushes in each of the team’s past three wins, should be considered a RB2 option as the Panthers take on the Bucs in Week 17. Unless Tom Brady and the Bucs break out of a yearlong offensive malaise, Carolina will humiliate Tampa on the ground, putting Foreman and Hubbard in play as viable fantasy options in 12-team leagues.
Other running backs to roster
Royce Freeman (0 percent): Texans coaches have spent the better part of three weeks raving about Freeman. They like him a lot, and that matters. Against Tennessee last week, Freeman served as the team’s lead back with 16 carries for a whopping 32 yards. He also caught a pass for six yards. Consider Freeman if you have no other option at running back this week.
James Cook (52 percent): In Buffalo’s demolition of the Bears last week, Cook had 11 carries to Devin Singletary‘s 12 rushes while splitting the route running role. Cook leads the Buffalo backfield in yards after contact per carry and yards per route run. He might be usable this week in a potential back-and-forth affair with the Bengals.
Gus Edwards (41 percent): One more for the road with Edwards, who has frequented this waiver wire-grinding space throughout 2022. Gus Bus took 11 carries for 99 yards and a score last week against the Falcons after a promising start for J.K. Dobbins, who finished with 12 rushes for 59 yards. I guess it’s possible Dobbins aggravated his knee injury. The Ravens seem intent on leaning all the way into the run, creating a path to rushing volume for both Dobbins and Edwards this week against the Steelers.
Boston Scott (1 percent): Pick up Scott this week if your fantasy title game is in Week 18. He could be the Eagles’ lead back if they rest their starters.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks (HOU)
Rostership: 54 percent
Cooks, through his myriad injuries and differences of opinion with the Texans, has been dropped in nearly half of leagues. He retook his place atop the team’s pass-catching pecking order in Week 15, riding a 27 percent target share to four catches, 34 yards, and a score against Tennessee.
Cooks logged a 77 percent target share in his return to the lineup and had a 33-yard touchdown called back on a penalty. Now he goes against Jacksonville, one of the league’s most generous secondaries. If the Jags can push Houston into a pass-heavy game script, Cooks could be a stunning Week 17 fantasy hero after a miserable season.
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Rostership: 17 percent
Doubs could have serious appeal this week against the pass-funnel Vikings if Christian Watson is sidelined with his hip injury. On Christmas Day against Miami, Doubs’ route participation jumped to 83 percent and he saw five targets, the third most among Green Bay pass catchers.
Doubs, running around 85 percent of his routes from the boundary, would be in good position to take full advantage of a favorable matchup against a Minnesota secondary that has been ripped by outside receivers. The rookie has seen a target on a heady 28.6 percent of his routes in the two games since his return from a months-long ankle injury. He’s clearly the top wideout pick up for Week 17.
D.J. Chark (DET)
Rostership: 51 percent
The Lions-Bears game features one of the highest totals of fantasy championship week. It makes sense for a game with two laughable defenses, a highly-functional Detroit offense, and Justin Fields.
Chark has established himself as the Lions’ No. 2 receiver over the past few weeks. As the team’s lone deep threat, Chark has at least 90 yards in three of his past four outings. His team-leading 14.4 average depth of target and air yard domination means Chark has weekly upside, though his production may be volatile. Chicago is the perfect matchup for a wideout like Chark; only Houston allows a higher rate of long pass plays than the Bears.
Rashid Shaheed (NO)
Rostership: 8 percent
Shaheed last week operated as the Saints’ No. 1 receiver -- an unfathomable thought even three weeks ago. With Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry sidelined, Shaheed ran a route on 14 of the Saints’ 15 drop backs and saw a team-leading five targets. The kicker-returner-turned-alpha-wideout caught four for 43 yards.
Even if Olave returns to the lineup in Week 17, Shaheed -- an electric downfield playmaker -- is worth a roster spot in leagues with multiple flex spots. Shaheed since Week 14 leads New Orleans in yards per route run by a long shot.
Other wide receivers to roster
Greg Dortch (2 percent): I’m downright nostalgic about Dortch Szn returning one more time before the season is over. Trace McSorley showed he has been Dortchpilled in Week 16 against Tampa, completing ten of 11 throws to his slot man for 98 yards. Whatever the shortcomings of this Arizona offense -- and there are many -- slot receiver production is not one of them. If Dortch maintains his every-down slot role in Week 17 against the Falcons, PPR cheat code is certainly in his range of outcomes. His 4.5 average depth of target is -- dare I say -- beautiful.
Chris Moore (14 percent): Moore in Week 16 had a 100 percent route rate and caught two of his four targets for 25 yards. He gets a Jaguars defense allowing the eighth most fantasy points to enemy wideouts. Moore could be the latest slot receiver to post solid numbers against a Jacksonville coverage unit that has been burned by slot guys -- including Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Negative script for the Texans could fuel the sort of play volume that should make Moore a viable PPR WR3.
Richie James (17 percent): The Giants’ slot guy now has a team-leading 24 targets over his past three games. New York’s desire to run the ball at any cost could tank James’ Week 17 prospects against a Colts team that can be gashed on the ground though. James, who leads the Giants in yards per route run over the past three weeks, is only usable in PPR leagues.
Elijah Moore (32 percent): Moore has carved out a spot as the Jets’ primary slot guy, and last we left off with Mike White under center for New York, Moore was fast becoming a halfway usable PPR option. Moore had six receptions for 60 yards on ten targets in White’s last game against Buffalo. He’s once again in play as a fringe flex option.
Van Jefferson (22 percent): Jefferson is still the only Rams wideout running (almost) all the routes in the team’s Baker-led offense. He’s no Tyler Higbee, but Jefferson has a dash of downfield appeal in a Week 17 game against the Chargers that will probably force the Rams to throw more than they did on Christmas against the Broncos.
Isaiah Hodgins (2 percent): Tied for second in targets among New York pass catchers since Week 14, Hodgins is now a mainstay in three-receiver sets in the Giants offense. Hodgins is fresh off seeing a team-high 10 targets against the Vikings while running a route on 95 percent of Daniel Jones’ drop backs. Don’t expect those inflated target numbers in a far less appealing fantasy environment this week against the zombie Colts.
Laquon Treadwell (0 percent): Treadwell stepped in and ran 42 routes on 46 Geno Smith drop backs against Kansas City last week. He drew six targets, second only to DK Metcalf. If Tyler Lockett (finger) remains out, Treadwell should slot in as a fixture in Seattle’s three-receiver sets.
Corey Davis (2 percent): Coming off a seven-target outing against the Jaguars, Davis is in line to benefit from increased plays (and pass) volume this week against the Seahawks’ miserable secondary. He’s little more than a last-ditch flex option in 14-teamers.
Tight End
Editor’s note: Taysom Hill is still out there in 45 percent of leagues. Probably he’s rostered in your league, which is savvy and full of folks who know stuff about football. But if he’s out there, go ahead and get him this week and deploy him over pretty much any other tight end option in Week 17. A rash of offensive injuries for New Orleans has created consistent opportunity for Hill, who has 35 rushes in his past five outings. He played nearly half the Saints’ offensive snaps in Week 16 against Cleveland.
Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
Rostership: 27 percent
Conklin’s pass route rates have been borderline maddening over the past six weeks. Against the Jaguars in Week 16, he had a commanding route and target lead over fellow tight end C.J. Uzomah, hauling in four of five targets for 34 yards. Uzomah caught his lone target.
Mike White‘s Week 17 return will boost Conklin’s fantasy prospects bigly. With White -- or anyone not named Zach Wilson -- under center, the Jets offense sees a spike in snaps, fueling route and target volume for the team’s pass catchers. And the Jets-Seahawks game has sneaky shootout potential if White is back from his rib injury. You could do way worse than Conk Daddy (my wife left).
Hayden Hurst (CIN)
Rostership: 32 percent
One day Hurst will return from his calf injury. I just know it. And when he does, Hurst should resume his route rate of around 90 percent -- very strong for a tight end -- in a high-powered Bengals passing attack.
Before his calf injury, Hurst had six games with at least seven targets. He’s a decent PPR option in Week 17 against the Bills in a game that has as much back-and-forth appeal as any on the slate. Pick up Hurst and watch his late-week practice status on NBC Sport Edge (powered by Rotoworld).
Logan Thomas (WAS)
Rostership: 6 percent
Thomas’ six catches for 35 yards on eight targets in Week 16 against the 49ers didn’t come out of nowhere. He had been running a solid route rate for the past few weeks; it was a matter of Washington being able to take the air out of the ball and operate a low-volume passing offense.
Thomas profiles as a worthwhile streamer in Week 17 against the Browns. Like any tight end waiver option, Thomas is going to be touchdown dependent unless game script spirals out of control and the Commanders are forced to drop back 40 times, as they were last week against the Niners. Thomas has a mere three games this season with at least five catches.
Other tight ends to roster
Jeff Driskel (11 percent): The Texans’ commitment to the Driskel bit continues to wane. He saw a further reduction in playing time last week against the Titans, playing 19 of the team’s 67 snaps. Driskel rushed twice for two yards and completed three of four passes for 40 yards. Driskel remains a superior option over fringe tight end options thanks to his utility usage and potential read-option role in the red zone.
Daniel Bellinger (3 percent): Everything broke right for Bellinger in Week 16 against the Vikings and he saw two targets on 46 routes. No tight end ran more routes last week. Nevertheless, we persist. Running nearly every route in the run-first New York offense, Bellinger should be used in deeper formats this week against the Colts.
Mitchell Wilcox (0 percent): It’s not often a tight end running almost every route will go completely unrostered. That’s what we have with Wilcox, who in Week 16 caught all six of his targets for 35 yards. He’s been a reasonably decent PPR TE2/3 since Hayden Hurst went down with a calf injury. Wilcox could benefit from a fantastic game environment this week against Buffalo.
Jonnu Smith (2 percent): If Hunter Henry misses Week 17 with a knee injury, Smith would have a shred of fantasy appeal against Miami. He tied a season high with four targets last week against the Bengals. His 21 pass routes were the second most he’s had in 2022.
Shane Zylstra (1 percent): If you’re desperate in a 20-team league, Zylstra is your guy. He caught an inexplicable three touchdowns on five targets last week against the Panthers while leading Detroit tight ends with a meager 48 percent route rate. I suppose you could do worse.
Kicker
Riley Patterson (JAC)
Rostership: 2 percent
Judging by Patterson’s rostership percentage, you had great doubt in your kicker-knowing waiver wire analyst last week. I pleaded with the folks to play Patterson against the Jets and he delivered with four field goals on five attempts. As my neck tattoo reads: The process.
Patterson is again in a prime spot this week against Houston. With the Jaguars offense clicking and the Texans unable to stop anyone on the ground or through the air, Jacksonville should move the ball at will here. The Texans are allowing two field goal tries per game. If you used Patterson in Week 16, keep him going in Week 17.
Cameron Dicker (LAC)
Rostership: 49 percent
The Chargers are rolling with Dicker the kicker even though Dustin Hopkins is back from his two-month hamstring injury. When the cursed Bolts stumble upon a guy who has 15 of his 16 field goal attempts, they don’t get cute. You have to respect it.
The Chargers, in the cozy anti-winter of Los Angeles, are eight-point favorites over the Rams as of this writing. Dicker should benefit from plenty of neutral and positive script, even against a rejuvenated Rams team.
Younghoe Koo (ATL)
Rostership: 40 percent
Koo is somehow fantasy’s ninth highest scoring kicker, attached to a backward offense on a team that never wins. The process: We love it. We will never betray it.
Koo should be a fine Week 17 option with the Falcons entering as three-point home favorites over the down-bad Cardinals. With multiple field goal tries in five of his past seven games -- and Arthur Smith‘s undying love of the short field goal -- Koo is at worst a floor option against Arizona.