We made it. Months and months of fantasy preparation were poured in over the summer and all that work is about to be put to the test as Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us. The NFL is inherently a fluid game, with things in constant motion. What was yesterday isn’t always tomorrow and then will be different in the middle of the season. So with a fresh start to a new season, taking an evidence-based approach is easier said than done. For those that have followed this article for the previous four seasons, you’ll know the accuracy ramps as we roll on. Still, that doesn’t mean we must throw everything out from the past when looking ahead.
For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 1 games with a PPR light…
Chiefs @ Patriots
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | ||
| 19.8 | Implied Total | 28.3 | ||
| 61.1 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 67.7 | 3 |
| 66.4 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 4 |
| 41.0% | 14 | Rush% | 43.6% | 6 |
| 59.0% | 19 | Pass% | 56.4% | 27 |
| 41.7% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 36.5% | 5 |
| 58.3% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 63.6% | 28 |
- New England allowed the fewest points per play (.264) while Kansas City ranked fourth (.291) in 2016.
- The Chiefs were second in the league in points scored off turnovers in 2016. New England was tied with Atlanta with a league-low 11 turnovers in 2016.
- The Patriots led for 68.2 percent of their plays in 2016, the highest mark of the past five seasons.
- Rob Gronkowski has been a top-12 scoring tight end in 44 of his 56 games played over the past five seasons.
- The Chiefs have allowed just four top-12 scoring tight ends over the past two seasons, the fewest in the league.
- The Patriots have allowed just eight, which is tied for second in the league over that span.
- Tyreek Hill was targeted on 31 percent of his routes in 2016, the highest rate for all wide receivers in the league.
- The Patriots allowed just 8.8 rushing points per game to opposing backfields in 2016, the fewest in the league.
- New England did allow 12.6 receiving points per game to opposing backfields (fourth highest) and 58.8 percent of the fantasy points scored by running backs against the Patriots were through receiving output, the highest rate in the league.
- 42.8 percent of the rushing attempts versus Kansas City went for five or more yards in 2016, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Tom Brady (the last time that Brady opened the season versus Kansas City didn’t quite go as planned, but retributions are in order as the short passing game should thrive as well as picking on the right side of the Chiefs’ defense), Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan (both should move around all over the field and split time squaring off versus the stationary Marcus Peters on the right side, but each will have the opportunity for splash plays against Phillip Gaines and Terrance Mitchell)
Bust: Mike Gillislee/Rex Burkhead/Dion Lewis (as a large home favorite, this would’ve been a desirable spot to hone in on the lead back, but without clarity on the situation things are murky for weekly lineups. I believe all three get touches as New England finds a hot hand. My bet would be that Burkhead gets the most touches and that Gillislee has the highest odds at reaching the paint if you feel the need to chase a score), Alex Smith (as a low total, road dog, Smith is a floor play for 2QB leagues), Travis Kelce (New England has the corners to individually matchup with Tyreek Hill, allowing Bill Belichick the opportunity to devise a game plan around stopping Kelce’s ability to move the sticks with yards after catch)
Reasonable Return: Rob Gronkowski (the league’s premier touchdown scorer posted a 7-82-2 line when he last faced Eric Berry and the Chiefs’ defense in the 2015 playoffs, so no need to fret in weekly lineups. But I do believe the Patriots’ passing game finds the most success through the slot, left side and the backs in this one, making Gronk a tougher option to pay up all the way for in DFS), James White (the one New England back for which we have some clairvoyance on usage, White is a PPR floor flex option), Danny Amendola (he should be matched with Gaines the most often when New England goes three wide, but will get the lowest snap share of the receivers), Tyreek Hill (target volume should be in his favor and he should find one-on-one opportunities to turn in a WR3 line with upside if they manufacture touches for him), Kareem Hunt (not concerned about a committee as Hunt is the best player in this backfield, but still entering Week 1 with pedestrian RB2 expectations. The Patriots inherently are good versus the run and the fact that they lead and win often compounds a negative outlook for production on the ground from backs, but enhances those that can catch the ball well, something Hunt can do).
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Jets @ Bills
| NY Jets | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 15.3 | Implied Total | 24.8 | ||
| 62.7 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 18 |
| 62.5 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.7 | 17 |
| 41.7% | 12 | Rush% | 48.6% | 2 |
| 58.3% | 21 | Pass% | 51.4% | 31 |
| 42.8% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 46.0% | 30 |
| 57.2% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 54.0% | 3 |
- The Bills allowed 67 runs of 10 or more yards in 2016, tied with San Francisco for the most in the league.
- 18.3 percent of Bilal Powell‘s carries in 2016 went for 10 or more yards, the highest rate of all running backs with at least 100 attempts.
- 31.5 percent of the runs against the Jets failed to gain positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- 24 percent of McCoy’s carries failed to gain positive yardage, the fifth highest rate in the league.
- McCoy has averaged 23.6 points per game in seven games as a home favorite with Buffalo.
- Buffalo averaged 30.8 points per game at home in 2016, the third-most in the league.
- 32.4 percent of Tyrod Taylor‘s fantasy output has come from rushing over the past two years, the highest in the league.
Trust: LeSean McCoy (The Bills have returned their entire starting offensive line from 2016 and although the Jets’ run defense will still be their strength as a team even with the loss of Sheldon Richardson, game script paired with McCoy being the one certainty on an offense filled with uncertainty will have him in line for a strong game even if he has more than a handful of negative runs)
Bust: Josh McCown (the Bills have turned over their entire secondary, but that’s about where the silver lining ends for McCown’s fantasy expectations), Jordan Matthews/Zay Jones (Matthews hasn’t even logged time working with Tyrod Taylor yet and Jones’ volume should be stifled by the Bills controlling the game), Matt Forte (there’s a chance that Forte gets the bulk of the backfield split early in the season as he closed the preseason as the feature back, but I don’t see how you can blindly use him to begin the year)
Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (Even though it was a miserable preseason for Taylor and his weapons have taken the shine off this once tasty matchup, he still carries a safe floor through rushing as a high QB2 this week), Charles Clay (a low TE1 streamer, he’s the most stable of the Buffalo pass catchers going against a pair of rookie safeties while the Jets allowed a touchdown once every 11.6 targets to opposing tight ends in 2016, the third highest rate in the league), Bilal Powell (with New York as big road dogs and Matt Forte still lurking to take away touches, it’s tough to have more than a RB2/flex outlook to start the year, but Powell is currently the most talented player on this offense), Robby Anderson (the only Jets’ wide receiver I would entertain using to start the year, Anderson has the splash-play upside and potential volume as Buffalo has three new starting cornerbacks)
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Jaguars @ Texans
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 17.0 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 65.8 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 6 |
| 64.4 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 1 |
| 37.3% | 26 | Rush% | 43.4% | 7 |
| 62.7% | 7 | Pass% | 56.6% | 26 |
| 43.3% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 41.0% | 18 |
| 56.7% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 59.0% | 15 |
- No team ran fewer red zone plays (6.1 per game) in 2016 than Jacksonville.
- Houston averaged 1.2 red zone touchdowns per game in 2016, which was 31st in the league ahead of only the Rams (1.0 per game).
- Blake Bortles has finished as the QB15 or lower in five of his six games played against the Texans and scored just 12 fantasy points twice in those meetings.
- Of the 41 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in 2016, Allen Robinson ranked 40th in catchable target rate (56.9 percent) while DeAndre Hopkins ranked 38th (59.4 percent).
- Hopkins has finished as a WR1 for fantasy in just five of his past 26 games with just four 100-yard receiving games.
- Tom Savage targeted Hopkins on 31.5 percent of his passes (23-of-73) a year ago. Mike Evans led the NFL in target share in 2016 at 29.9 percent.
- Lamar Miller averaged a career-low 4.2 yards per touch in 2016 after averaging 5.1 yards per touch through four seasons.
Bust: Allen Robinson/DeAndre Hopkins (I believe in Robinson slightly more and he’s been a top-20 scoring WR in three of his past four versus Houston, but both are in a similar bucket this week as high-volume, poor matchup plays, entering with WR3 expectations, which is below their initial investment), Tom Savage (Jacksonville allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt to opposing passers in 2016 and upgraded defensively while Savage will be without his starting left tackle Duane Brown), Blake Bortles (a road dog that has not run into much of any success versus Houston through his career), Leonard Fournette (he should hold volume-based RB2 value in Week 1, but he’s a road dog with an uncertain pass catching role, which places him at the lower end of that group)
Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (a significant home favorite has the lights on. He was the RB26 and the RB13 in his two meetings with Jacksonville a year ago and remains a volume-based RB2 that will need to run into a short scoring opportunity), C.J. Fiedorowicz (he tallied seven or more targets in nine games on the season --which was tied for the fourth-best mark at the position—and Hopkins should find trouble versus the Jacksonville corners)
Steelers @ Browns
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10 | Spread | 10 | ||
| 28.5 | Implied Total | 18.5 | ||
| 63.8 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 27 |
| 62.1 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 28 |
| 41.1% | 13 | Rush% | 35.6% | 29 |
| 58.9% | 20 | Pass% | 64.4% | 4 |
| 36.6% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 46.7% | 31 |
| 63.4% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 53.3% | 2 |
- Pittsburgh has won the past four meetings between these teams by a combined total of 55 points.
- Cleveland allowed 24 or more points in 14 games in 2016, tying an NFL record for the most in a single season.
- The Browns trailed for 67.6 percent of their plays for the season, the highest rate in the league.
- DeShone Kizer is tied for the third youngest quarterback to ever start a game in Week 1 (21 years and 250 days) with Jameis Winston, behind Drew Bledsoe (21-203) and Matthew Stafford (21-218).
- Those other three quarterbacks combined to complete 46-of-100 passes (with no quarterback at 50 percent in their game) for an average of 187.7 passing yards and a combined four touchdowns with six interceptions in those starts.
- Ben Roethlisberger has ranked higher than QB12 in just two of 17 games in 1 PM ET road kickoffs over the past five seasons with fewer than 15 fantasy points in 11 of those games.
- Since Martavis Bryant entered the league, Roethlisberger has averaged 60.9 more passing yards (336.6 per game) and four more fantasy points per game (25.5) with Bryant in the lineup for the Steelers.
- Le’Veon Bell has had at least 125 yards from scrimmage in seven straight games --the Pittsburgh franchise record-- and the longest streak since DeMarco Murray (eight games) in 2014.
- Antonio Brown has averaged 115 receiving yards and 24.1 fantasy points per game over his past seven games against the Browns.
- Brown, Bell, Roethlisberger and Bryant have been on the field together for just 21 snaps since the start of the 2015 season.
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (he put up 199-yards from scrimmage when these teams last met and the Browns have Danny Shelton and Myles Garrett banged up on the defensive line), Antonio Brown (he must be somewhat sad that Joe Haden is now on his own sideline for this one, but Cleveland still has no answer for him here)
Bust: DeShone Kizer (his rushing ability will keep him in play as a QB2, but expect a learning curve against one of the blitz-heaviest defenses in the league), Duke Johnson (the Steelers were 21st in receptions allowed to backs in 2016, but Johnson was out-targeted over the final eight weeks by Crowell and Kizer will need to show that he’s willing to check down before thrusting him into lineups as a flex option), Corey Coleman/Kenny Britt (both can be left on benches in Kizer’s first ever start and Pittsburgh allowed wide receivers to score just once every 38.2 targets in 2016, which ranked second in the league)
Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger (his road bugaboos really crop up in early starts, but he still has fringe QB1 expectations in this matchup with the opportunity for much more since he’ll finally have his entire offense at his disposal), Martavis Bryant (Bell and Brown should feast here, but he’ll only be a play away from doing damage attached to a team with a high team total), Isaiah Crowell (he was a top-12 scorer in five of the seven games that Cleveland got him 15 touches a year ago and that should be the play with a rookie quarterback in his first start, but the lowly team total still has him in RB2 territory)
Cardinals @ Lions
| Arizona | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 67.9 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 29 |
| 63.7 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 2 |
| 36.7% | 27 | Rush% | 35.4% | 30 |
| 63.3% | 6 | Pass% | 64.6% | 3 |
| 41.6% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 41.3% | 19 |
| 58.4% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 58.7% | 14 |
- Detroit allowed an NFL-record 72.7 percent of passes to be completed against them in 2016.
- The Lions allowed 16.3 points per game to slot wide receivers in 2016, the most in the league. Arizona allowed the second-most at 16.0 points per game.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Larry Fitzgerald‘s 63 receptions from the slot were tied for the second most in the league a year ago.
- David Johnson has now started 19 non-Week 17 games and has been a top-11 PPR scorer in 17 of those games and the RB1 overall in those weeks seven times.
- Opposing teams averaged just 9.8 possessions per game against the Lions, the fewest in the league.
- Arizona allowed just 18.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields in 2016 --the fewest in the league -- while they were the only team in the league that held backfields under 100-yards from scrimmage per game (94.1 YFS).
- No team ran the ball fewer times per game than Detroit (21.5 attempts per game) in 2016.
- No running back has more receptions than the 133 notched by Theo Riddick over the past two seasons despite him missing six games.
- Matthew Stafford has faced 20 pass defenses in the top-20 over the past two years and has finished as the QB16 or lower in 14 of those 20 games.
- Arizona allowed 31.4 points per game in five 1 PM ET kickoff games in 2016 while allowing 18.6 per week outside of those early starts.
Trust: David Johnson (Set. Forget.), Larry Fitzgerald (he’s gotten off to hot starts in each of the past two seasons and this season should be no different as Darius Slay has traveled to cover the slot just 40 combined snaps over the past two years)
Bust: Matthew Stafford (he’s crushed extreme cupcakes over the past two years while being leaky versus competent passing defenses. Arizona was horrendous in early starts a year ago, but I’d still be uneasy using that as a crutch here), Marvin Jones (was the average weekly WR56 over the final 12 weeks of 2016 and Arizona is damaged more by interior receivers), Ameer Abdullah (Arizona’s defensive front seven has four new starters from a year ago, but the Detroit offensive line is still overmatched here), Eric Ebron (no team allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than Arizona a year ago), John Brown (he still may not start or play a full allotment of snaps while he should find Slay when in the game, leaving Jaron Brown or J.J. Nelson an opportunity to make a play or two on the perimeter)
Reasonable Return: Carson Palmer (he has been a QB1 in just four of 14 early kickoffs since joining Arizona, but the Lions lack of pass rush and shaky secondary are still just as present as they were a year ago. The only thing in the way of Palmer hitting his ceiling is if Detroit can play keep away to the degree they did a year ago), Golden Tate (he should still run a little over half of his routes from the inside to give him a floor based on reception opportunity while avoiding Patrick Peterson when inside), Theo Riddick (a late return from wrist surgery is a concern, but is a floor flex as his receiving will be needed with Arizona shutting down the run and limiting the boundaries), Jermaine Gresham (you’re very likely not in such dire of a position to use him in weekly leagues, but if in a dire spot and/or are chasing a score from a punt in daily leagues, the Lions allowed a touchdown every 11.9 targets to opposing tight ends a year ago and Gresham accounted for 14.8 percent of the Arizona targets over their final six games to close 2016)
Falcons @ Bears
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | Spread | 7 | ||
| 28.3 | Implied Total | 21.3 | ||
| 62.0 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 30 |
| 66.8 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 13 |
| 42.3% | 11 | Rush% | 39.3% | 20 |
| 57.7% | 22 | Pass% | 60.7% | 13 |
| 34.1% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 44.0% | 27 |
| 65.9% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 56.0% | 6 |
- Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 11 top-12 scoring weeks in 2016. The Bears allowed just three top-12 scoring running backs, the second fewest in the league behind Dallas.
- Freeman totaled 62 red zone touches (second in the NFL) in 2016 compared to 29 for Coleman.
- Jordan Howard closed the season with over 100-yards from scrimmage in six straight games, the longest streak outside of Le’Veon Bell.
- Howard averaged 6.1 yards per carry with seven defenders in the box versus 2.8 YPC with eight or more defenders in 2016.
- Atlanta allowed the most receiving points per game to opposing backfields (14.5) while Chicago allowed the fewest (6.8) in 2016.
- No player has more Week 1 fantasy points over the past five years than Matt Ryan (24.8 per game) as he’s been a top-12 scoring quarterback in each of those games.
- Kendall Wright received 20.5 percent of targets from Mike Glennon this preseason, the highest on the team.
Trust: Matt Ryan (a lofty team total against a defense that allowed nine QB1s a year ago should float Ryan before the game script reins him in), Julio Jones (collectively, the Bears limited feature WR1s in 2016, but they don’t have anybody in their back end that is going to move you off Jones)
Bust: Austin Hooper (he still hasn’t gotten the first team run we’d like from the preseason and the Bears ranked 11th in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends), Mohamed Sanu (he had just four top-30 scoring weeks all of 2016 and is more of a floor WR4 option), Mike Glennon (the low team total while being a huge dog places him in the shallow end of the QB2 pool while Atlanta allowed just three of the final nine quarterbacks they faced in 2016 to finish in the top half of scoring), Kevin White (Atlanta’s boundary corners Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford should be up to the task of limiting White)
Reasonable Return: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (both are RB2 plays this week with script and team total heavily in their favor despite Chicago limiting running back upside in 2016), Taylor Gabriel (Gabriel should find Marcus Cooper, who struggled versus speed receivers a year ago, including allowing three catches for 50 yards and a score while covering Gabriel himself), Jordan Howard (script could push him down if Tarik Cohen has a large role in the passing game, but Atlanta was 21st in yards per carry and 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed to backs in 2016), Kendall Wright (Chicago should find themselves in three wide receiver sets often in this one while Wright draws the softest matchup inside versus Brian Poole), Zach Miller (another low-level tight end option for those in need, Miller held off Dion Sims in the preseason while Atlanta allowed 11 top-12 scoring tight ends, the most in the league)
Raiders @ Titans
| Oakland | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 65.7 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 63 | 22 |
| 62.1 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 21 |
| 40.7% | 15 | Rush% | 47.2% | 3 |
| 59.3% | 18 | Pass% | 52.8% | 30 |
| 44.0% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 34.5% | 3 |
| 56.0% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 65.5% | 30 |
- The Titans allowed just 61.2 rushing yards per game at home in 2016, the fewest in the league.
- Tennessee ranked 5th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields (109.5 yards per game), but ranked 30th in passing yards allowed per game (286.6) to opposing passers.
- Derek Carr has averaged 281.1 passing yards, 2.1 passing touchdowns and 24.1 fantasy points per game over the past two years versus bottom half passing defenses.
- Tennessee allowed 12 top-12 scoring wide receivers in 2016, the most in the league.
- The Raiders allowed the most pass plays of 20 plus yards (61) in 2016.
- 18.1 percent of Marcus Mariota‘s pass completions were for 20 yards or more, the second-highest rate in the league behind Matt Ryan (18.5 percent).
- The Titans converted 72 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns in 2016, the third-highest rate in the league since 2000.
- The Raiders allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 60 percent of their red zone possessions, 26th in the league.
- Oakland allowed 15.6 rushing points per game to opposing backfields, 27th in the league. DeMarco Murray averaged 11.6 rushing points per game, eighth of all running backs.
- Murray played 81 percent of the Tennessee snaps last year, the second-highest rate for all running backs behind David Johnson (84 percent).
Trust: Marcus Mariota/Derek Carr (this game was a letdown a year ago for both players, but has the highest implied total on Sunday and both quarterbacks have had success versus lower-tiered pass defenses to go back to the well on each making good on this game having high-scoring potential), DeMarco Murray (he’s still the lead back even if Derrick Henry’s role grows in year two while the already poor Raiders front replaced their interior defensive line and two of their linebackers entering the season), Delanie Walker (Oakland will be starting 5th-round rookie Marquel Lee at inside linebacker while the Raiders allowed the fifth most receiving yards to opposing tight ends a year ago)
Bust: Rishard Matthews/Corey Davis (Matthews is the type of receiver that the longer Oakland corners defend well and Davis has no body of work at all for us to blindly thrust into lineups), Jared Cook (the Raiders didn’t use a tight end on 53 percent of their snaps a year ago –the highest in the league—while Tennessee allowed just four top-12 tight ends on the season)
Reasonable Return: Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper (I would still roll each out in lineups but they’ve had top-24 scoring weeks together just five times over the past two years, so even in a great matchup with a high total, there’s odds that we’re let down by one and you’ll have to hedge in DFS builds around this game. Crabtree had 8-102 in this matchup a year ago, doing the bulk of his damage versus the departed Perish Cox while he should draw Logan Ryan a touch more than Cooper will), Marshawn Lynch (he’s a threat to score in a potential shootout, and although the Titans were sixth in yards per carry allowed to running backs in 2016, Oakland backs carried 22 times for 122 yards against them), Eric Decker (he should find favor in the slot against Gareon Conley in his first NFL start)
Ravens @ Bengals
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 19.8 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 67.4 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 11 |
| 62.1 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 24 |
| 34.0% | 32 | Rush% | 42.5% | 10 |
| 66.0% | 1 | Pass% | 57.5% | 23 |
| 38.7% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 39.7% | 11 |
| 61.3% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 60.3% | 22 |
- Andy Dalton has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in eight of 11 career games against Baltimore and in four of the past five meetings.
- Dalton was one of just two quarterbacks (Carson Wentz) to play all 16 games and not have a single game with three or more passing touchdowns in 2016.
- A.J. Green scored just once every 25 targets in 2016 after scoring once every 16 targets to start his career.
- The Ravens allowed 10.6 more points per game on the road last season, the second largest difference in the league after Green Bay (10.7).
- Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers on 50.1 percent of their passes versus Cincinnati in 2016, the lowest rate in the league.
- Baltimore targeted wide receivers on just 53.9 percent of their passes, 31st in the league.
- Terrance West was a top-24 scorer in seven of the nine games in which he received at least half of the Baltimore rushing attempts a year ago.
Trust: A.J. Green (despite Dalton’s struggles, Green has scored in five straight games versus Baltimore), Danny Woodhead (Joe Flacco targeted running backs 28.5 percent of the time versus Cincinnati a year ago as they caught 19 passes in those two games)
Bust: Andy Dalton (he could get carried by a monster game from Green, but passing expectations are pedestrian in this projected to be low-scoring, interdivision matchup), Mike Wallace/Jeremy Maclin (only Denver allowed fewer receptions to opposing wideouts than Cincinnati a year ago while no Ravens’ receiver finished higher than WR46 versus the Bengals), Joe Mixon/Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Baltimore is one of the league’s best run defenses and added Tony Jefferson to the mix while the Bengals are still planning on starting Hill and working Mixon into the fold to begin the season), Joe Flacco (he’s yet to have any game action this offseason while Flacco has been in the bottom half of quarterback scoring in seven of his nine games versus the Bengals over the past five years)
Reasonable Return: Terrance West (a volume RB2/flex that could tack on a few catches, but the overall ceiling is low without a short touchdown opportunity), Tyler Eifert (he’s been a top-12 tight end in three of four career games versus Baltimore)
Eagles @ Washington
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 23.8 | ||
| 67.5 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 21 |
| 61.1 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 25 |
| 40.6% | 17 | Rush% | 37.6% | 25 |
| 59.4% | 16 | Pass% | 62.4% | 8 |
| 40.0% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 40.3% | 15 |
| 60.0% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 59.7% | 18 |
- Washington allowed eight different 300-yard passers, tied with New Orleans for the most in the league.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Cason Wentz targeted Josh Norman just three times on 62 directed passes a year ago, completing one for 14 yards.
- 17.3 percent Zach Ertz‘s career targets and 18.6 percent of his career receptions have come against Washington. His highest rates versus any opponent despite those games played making up 13 percent of his career games played.
- Washington allowed 68.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, the third most in the league.
- Opposing teams targeted tight ends just 14.2 percent of the time versus the Eagles, the lowest rate in the league.
- Jordan Reed has reached 40 receiving yards just once in six career games versus the Eagles with one top-20 scoring week amongst the tight end position.
- Robert Kelley handled 71 percent of the Washington carries over the final nine weeks of the 2016 season.
- Washington running backs carried 49 times for 332 yards (6.8 YPC) with three touchdowns in two games versus Philadelphia a year ago.
Trust: Kirk Cousins (he’s posted 21.8 points per game over his past four versus the Eagles), Terrelle Pryor (even with a quiet preseason, Pryor is set up to succeed Week 1 as both Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder should run into limitations while he works on Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills), Zach Ertz (he enters the season as the most familiar target for Carson Wentz and has a history of saving his best for Washington)
Bust: Jamison Crowder (he had just five receptions in two games versus the Eagles a year ago and even with a revamped set of corners, Philadelphia stands to be more vulnerable to perimeter options), Jordan Reed (you’re not running away from Reed in weekly lineups as his ceiling is high enough to overcome any matchup and has had one enormous game versus the Eagles in his career, but his track record here is enough to keep him in the contrarian play pile for daily games and his expectations well below the career bar he’s set), LeGarrette Blount (Washington has three new starters in their front seven after allowing a 4.5 yards per carry to backs, but Blount is a touchdown or bust play entering a potential timeshare), Alshon Jeffery (he managed a WR29 finish squaring off with Norman a year ago, and WR3 expectations are what you should have coming in)
Reasonable Return: Rob Kelley (he hit 70 yards on the ground just once over his final six games a year ago, but is in a potentially high scoring game that could set scoring chances while Washington had success running the ball on the Eagles a year ago), Carson Wentz (he starts the season with top-15 expectations based on yardage alone and his added pass catchers should improve on his dreadful touchdown rate as a rookie), Darren Sproles (he’s the only member of this backfield we can have faith in as a floor flex option), Chris Thompson (he’s been a top-30 scoring RB in four of his past six games versus the Eagles including weeks as the RB25 and RB27 a year ago)
Colts @ Rams
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 22.3 | ||
| 64.8 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 31 |
| 64.0 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 23 |
| 39.4% | 19 | Rush% | 39.1% | 22 |
| 60.6% | 14 | Pass% | 60.9% | 11 |
| 39.9% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 40.9% | 17 |
| 60.1% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 59.1% | 16 |
- In the 10 games that Andrew Luck has been inactive for his career, the Colts average 1.49 points per drive and 18.3 points per game as opposed to 2.09 points per drive and 26.1 points per game when he’s been active for his career.
- In those 10 games without Luck active, T.Y. Hilton has caught 41 passes for 630 yards and two touchdowns. He has scored double-digit points in just five of those games and finished as a top-30 scoring receiver just three times.
- Indianapolis had just four runs of 20 or more yards last year, the fewest in the NFL.
- 40.9 percent of Donte Moncrief‘s scoring last year came from touchdowns, the largest dependency of all wide receivers.
- The Colts allowed 11 top-12 scoring running backs in 2016, the most in the league.
- After rushing for at least 125 yards in each of his four starts to begin his career, Todd Gurley has rushed for 100-yards just once in 24 games since and hit 80-yards rushing just four times in those games.
- The Rams were last in the league with just 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game in 2016.
Trust: Todd Gurley (we will know right away what we can expect from Gurley’s potential revival as it can’t get much better on paper as a home favorite versus a team that projects to have a hard time defending the run)
Bust: T.Y. Hilton (the matchup isn’t tough and the target opportunity should be there to hold WR3/flex expectations if you’re looking for silver lining of him losing his attachment to Luck for the short term), Donte Moncrief (same as with Hilton, the matchup is actually favorable, but starting a player completely tethered to touchdown output over his career in a situation where his team is expected to be limited scoring points isn’t ideal), Frank Gore (even with no Aaron Donald, expectations are minuscule as the last time we saw Gore on the field without Luck he carried 15 times for 28 yards), Jack Doyle (he had 27 percent of Tolzien’s targets in the preseason, but the Rams allowed just 3.7 receptions per game to tight ends in 2016, the fourth-lowest in the league), Scott Tolzien (he’s finished as the QB26, QB22 and the QB31 in his three career spot starts)
Reasonable Return: Sammy Watkins (as with Gurley, the matchup couldn’t be better on paper with the Colts missing Vontae Davis, leaving Watkins to contend with Rashaan Melvin and Quincy Wilson, but we still need to have faith in Jared Goff and his involvement in the offense after joining the team four weeks ago), Cooper Kupp (he was Goff’s favorite target in the preseason, accruing 27 percent of his targets and is in play as a floor WR3/flex play), Jared Goff (with the Colts missing both Davis and starting safety Clayton Geathers, Goff is startable in 2QB leagues to open the season)
Panthers @ 49ers
| Carolina | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 26.8 | Implied Total | 21.3 | ||
| 65.8 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 25 |
| 64.7 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.9 | 32 |
| 43.1% | 8 | Rush% | 46.0% | 4 |
| 56.9% | 25 | Pass% | 54.0% | 29 |
| 36.3% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 49.7% | 32 |
| 63.7% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 50.3% | 1 |
- San Francisco allowed a league-high 31.4 points per game to opposing backfields in 2016, with 74.5 percent of those points stemming from rushing output, the highest rate in the league.
- 13 different backs posted 100-yards from scrimmage against the 49ers, the most in the league.
- San Francisco allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in eight games, the most in the league.
- Carolina allowed 318.8 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on the road in 2016, the most in the NFL.
- The 49ers allowed .500 passing points per attempt, 30th in the league.
- Cam Newton ranked 20th in pass attempts per game (34.0) but second in incompletions per game (16.0) for all quarterbacks last season.
Trust: Cam Newton (he has hardly played in the preseason and may not be required to run enough to unlock his ceiling here, but the only way this matchup could be better is if it were at home), Greg Olsen (anytime there’s reason to like Newton from a passing perspective, there’s reason to follow suit with Olsen and he caught five passes for 122 yards and a score against this defense a year ago), Kelvin Benjamin (he’s had a stellar offseason, went for 7-108-2 in this matchup a year ago and has a complete size mismatch against Rashard Robinson)
Bust: Brian Hoyer (despite allowing a lot of raw passing yardage, the Panthers still only allowed five top-12 quarterbacks a year ago and seven front half QB scorers, keeping Hoyer with lower-end QB2 expectations), Carlos Hyde (a low implied dog that had 14 carries for 38 yards and was the RB44 in this matchup a year ago doesn’t inspire confidence as more than a flex option to start the year)
Reasonable Return: Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (are in the RB2/flex mix for different reasons. It’s an ideal time to take advantage of Stewart’s short scoring opportunity with clock-killing carry potential and McCaffrey should still have enough all-purpose touches to hold a floor at minimum. The 49ers have scheme and personnel changes that should improve their heinous run defense from a year ago, but are still a target), Pierre Garcon (he may not ever have a high weekly ceiling due to limited touchdown potential, but Garcon should be peppered with opportunity to keep him as a WR2/WR3)
Seahawks @ Packers
| Seattle | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 26.8 | ||
| 63.2 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 13 |
| 63.3 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 9 |
| 40.6% | 16 | Rush% | 35.3% | 31 |
| 59.4% | 17 | Pass% | 64.7% | 2 |
| 42.6% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 37.8% | 8 |
| 57.4% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 62.2% | 25 |
- In three regular season matchups over the past three years, Aaron Rodgers has targeted Richard Sherman‘s wide receiver just three times on 84 targets per Pro Football Focus.
- Jordy Nelson was the WR20 and the WR5 in his two of those matchups, catching 15 of 21 targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns.
- Nelson led the NFL in routes run in 2016, with 675. Davante Adams ranked fourth at 634.
- Seattle allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing backfields, the second-fewest in the league.
- Opposing wide receivers averaged 8.8 yards per target against the Packers, the highest in the league.
- Doug Baldwin has caught 75 percent of his targets in each of the past two years, the first player since Wes Welker to have multiple seasons of catching 75 percent of 100 or more targets.
- Seattle averaged 11.8 fewer points per game on the road in 2016, the largest gap in the league.
- The Seahawks haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 1999, including the playoffs, scoring more than two touchdowns in just one of those seven games.
Trust: Aaron Rodgers (while we aren’t expecting an apex game from him, Rodgers has been the QB3 and QB8 at home versus Seattle in each of the past two years), Doug Baldwin (he was a letdown in this spot a year ago, catching six passes for 46 yards, but he did have 11 targets and still has the most desirable matchup on paper primarily in the slot against Damarious Randall)
Bust: Davante Adams (Adams caught a long score on Jeremy Lane a year ago, so it’s a reminder that everyone still has scoring upside attached to Rodgers no matter the matchup, but Adams is the receiver most dependent on needing a score here to turn in a good line), Randall Cobb (he has finished outside of the top-30 scorers at his position in 20 of his past 28 weeks played over the past two years. Until the opportunity opens for him to start receiving targets again, he’s best left as a bench play), Martellus Bennett (still a threat to score, Seattle ranked in the top-5 in receptions, yardage and touchdowns allowed to the tight end position a year ago), Seahawks RBs (we’re going to need some clarity here before putting any of these options into lineups. Thomas Rawls sits on top of the depth chart, but is questionable with an ankle injury while Eddie Lacy has looked legitimately bad throughout the preseason. Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise are the highest upside options, but have unclear snap counts as road dogs.)
Reasonable Return: Jordy Nelson (Green Bay has gotten him away from Sherman, but his yardage ceiling should still be held in check), Ty Montgomery (the matchup isn’t conducive for a ceiling as Seattle allowed the third-fewest receiving points to fantasy backs while shutting them down per rushing opportunity, but Montgomery managed 86 yards from scrimmage on just 30 snaps in this matchup a year ago for a RB14 finish), Russell Wilson (Seattle and Wilson have struggled to get going on the road—especially in Green Bay—and this matchup isn’t better than it was when Wilson was the QB28 in Week 14 a year ago, but it’s still strongly inviting for Wilson to manage a QB1 floor), Jimmy Graham (he had wonky touchdown fortune on the road in 2016 and a dreadful 1-16 when these teams met last year, but he still holds a TE1 ceiling in a game that could potentially be high scoring), Paul Richardson (he’s starting over Tyler Lockett in 2WR sets and is a WR/flex option if you’ve lost Mike Evans or Jarvis Landry and are in a bind)
Giants @ Cowboys
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 63.6 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 19 |
| 66.6 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 12 |
| 38.4% | 23 | Rush% | 48.7% | 1 |
| 61.6% | 10 | Pass% | 51.3% | 32 |
| 37.3% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 33.3% | 1 |
| 62.7% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 66.7% | 32 |
- Dez Bryant caught 2-of-14 targets for 18 yards in two games versus the Giants a year ago.
- Dak Prescott was in the top-half of weekly quarterback scoring in 12 of 15 games. Two of his three games outside were as the QB26 each time he faced the Giants.
- The Giants allowed a passing touchdown once every 42 pass attempts in 2016, the second best after Denver (42.5).
- Jason Witten has been a top-7 scoring tight end in seven of his past 10 games versus the Giants.
- Just 26.7 percent of the runs against the Giants gained at least five yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- Opposing backfields averaged just 23.3 touches per game against Dallas in 2016, the fewest in the league.
- New York allowed a league-low 42.5 percent of red zone possessions to result in touchdowns. Dallas had the fifth highest red zone touchdown rate at 65.6 percent.
Trust: Jason Witten (Death. Taxes. Witten to open the season versus the Giants.), Brandon Marshall (he’ll find himself across from rookie Chidobe Awuzie while Odell Beckham may be flying under full speed)
Bust: Dez Bryant (he was completely erased against the Giants a year ago, but is always a threat to score), Dak Prescott (one of the starts against New York was his first career start while the second was on the road, but the Giants only allowed just two top-12 quarterbacks all of 2016 and 13 of the starters versus them were in the back half of weekly scoring), Paul Perkins/Shane Vereen (the Giants are built to throw and road dogs, which shades towards Vereen being a flex option, but Dallas allowed just two top-12 running backs and five top-20 backs all year and just five backs to catch more than four passes in a game despite leading so much), Odell Beckham (you’re going to use him if he plays, but he’s going to need to practice fully to have more than WR2/WR3 expectations in an otherwise strong matchup), Evan Engram (he’s worth a gamble as a deep daily play based on Dallas allowing 7.5 receptions per game to tight ends a year ago and Beckham potentially being hobbled, but just eight rookie tight ends have ever hit double-digit points in Week 1), Sterling Shepard (he reached 70-yards just twice all of 2016 and now has a larger competition for targets with the additions in Engram and Marshall), Cole Beasley (he finished higher than WR48 just twice over his final 10 games a year ago after Bryant returned from injury and turned 19 targets versus the Giants into just 109 yards for the season)
Reasonable Return: Ezekiel Elliott (he’s a home favorite, so hard to completely fade as a bust, but he was the RB24 and the RB26 in his two versus the Giants last year while finishing as RB14 or higher in his other 14 games in 2016), Eli Manning (he lives as a QB2 these days--which is good, because he hasn’t been a QB1 versus Dallas since 2014—but Dallas has a limited pass rush and six new defensive starters, leaving Manning is a good spot to hold high QB2 value)
Saints @ Vikings
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 69.1 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 23 |
| 63.0 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 6 |
| 36.6% | 28 | Rush% | 37.8% | 24 |
| 63.4% | 5 | Pass% | 62.2% | 9 |
| 39.3% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 40.7% | 16 |
| 60.7% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 59.3% | 17 |
- Drew Brees completed 50.9 percent of his passes 15 yards or further downfield, which ranked third in the league behind Matt Ryan (57.6 percent) and Andrew Luck (54.2 percent).
- Minnesota allowed just 28 percent of passes 15 yards or further downfield to be completed, the lowest rate in the league.
- Coby Fleener had a season-high 20.3 percent of the team targets in Week3 last season-- the only game that Willie Snead missed-- catching seven of 11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown.
- The Saints allowed a rushing touchdown once every 18.8 rushing attempts, the highest rate in 2016.
- The Vikings averaged just 3.17 yards per carry as a team in 2016, the lowest mark in the league and lowest mark in team history since 1978.
- Minnesota ranked fourth in the league in rushing points allowed per attempt (.522) while New Orleans ranked 31st (.739) in 2016.
- Kyle Rudolph paced the position with 24 targets inside of the red zone and 10 targets inside of the 10-yard line as both marks ranked second in the entire NFL.
- New Orleans has allowed the most points per offensive play in each of the past two seasons.
Trust: Stefon Diggs (he’s moving back primarily to the outside, where he should terrorize the New Orleans secondary), Dalvin Cook (a home favorite in a favorable matchup that can catch passes out of the backfield), Sam Bradford (after Norv Turner resigned, Bradford was the QB13 to close the season, completing 79.5 percent of his passes. New Orleans ranked 31st in yards per attempt allowed)
Bust: Drew Brees (he has finished as a QB1 in just nine of 23 games as a road dog over the past five years, the Vikings allowed just two quarterbacks to finish higher than QB12 all of 2016 and he’s down his slot receiver and starting left tackle while his top passing option draws a premier cornerback on the boundary), Michael Thomas (Minnesota allowed just three top-12 scoring receivers all of 2016 as Xavier Rhodes allowed just 5.7 yards per target in coverage, which ranked fifth best in the league), Adrian Peterson (regardless of the #RevengeGame narrative, Peterson will draw a tough matchup versus his old team that allowed just four 100-yard rushers in 2016 and the third-fewest rushing scores to backs in the league)
Reasonable Return: Coby Fleener (with Willie Snead suspended, he’s their de facto slot receiver with a lower TE1 outlook), Adam Thielen (moving into the slot makes him a high-floor option in a game where Minnesota inherently needs to score points), Kyle Rudolph (he had double-digit points in 12 games a year ago, which led the position), Mark Ingram(the rushing output should be cannibalized here in a tougher matchup on the ground between Ingram and Peterson, but Ingram’s receiving ability should keep him in RB2 territory), Ted Ginn (a deep ball specialist against a secondary that didn’t surrender them a year ago, but with Michael Thomas soaking up Xavier Rhodes, Ginn will find Trae Waynes with the opportunity to hit)
Chargers @ Broncos
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 63.4 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 15 |
| 64.1 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.2 | 31 |
| 39.3% | 21 | Rush% | 40.2% | 18 |
| 60.8% | 12 | Pass% | 59.8% | 15 |
| 40.0% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 44.8% | 29 |
| 60.0% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 55.2% | 4 |
- 86.3 percent of the rushing attempts against the Broncos gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- The Broncos allowed 147.3 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields, 30th in the league in 2016.
- Denver allowed the fewest fantasy passing points per attempt in the league at .275 per throw.
- Opposing wide receivers averaged just 5.5 yards per target against the Broncos, the fewest in the league.
- Opposing teams targeted their tight ends 27.4 percent of the time versus Denver in 2016, the highest rate in the league.
- The Chargers targeted their tight ends 26.4 percent of the time, the 5th highest rate in the league.
- The last time Philip Rivers posted a QB1 week versus Denver was Week 11, 2010.
- Denver was tied for last in the league in offensive plays that gained 20 or more yards and allowed the fewest plays of 20 or more yards on defense.
Trust: Melvin Gordon (the low team total while being a road dog is troubling, but he could lead the position in touches this week as Denver is a natural rushing funnel defense while their offense doesn’t have the firepower to force teams into heavy negative game script)
Bust: Philip Rivers (see above), Tyrell Williams (caught just four of nine targets for 32 yards in two games versus Denver as the lead option a year ago), Keenan Allen (he averages just 40.3 receiving yards per game in four career games against the Broncos and has a date with Chris Harris), Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas (neither wideout was a top-30 option in either matchup between these teams a year ago), Trevor Siemian (QB17 and QB27 versus the Chargers a year ago)
Reasonable Return: Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry (each had a TE1 scoring game versus Denver a year ago as the Chargers utilized their tight ends in the game plan each game and there’s no doubt that the Chargers will push to get Gates the touchdown record as soon as possible), C.J. Anderson (he’s in line to lead the team in touches out of the blocks, but has much more competition than a year ago if he’s slow with his opportunity. The Chargers allowed the fifth-most points per game to backfields a year ago and the fifth-most rushing scores)
Context Key:
Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations
Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play
**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings
