Believe it or not, but the regular season for most fantasy leagues is ending. 10 weeks are in the books and most leagues have just three weeks left for owners to position themselves into a playoff spot. Week 11 is the final week for byes and it’s a light week for absent skill players. The Jets, Colts, Panthers and 49ers are off this week, so make sure to get them out of lineups.
As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 11 games with a PPR light…
Titans @ Steelers
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 22.8 | 13 | Points/Gm | 20.8 | 19 |
| 23.7 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 16.4 | 2 |
| 62.7 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 65.0 | 13 |
| 64.8 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.2 | 2 |
| 45.0% | 11 | Rush% | 45.6% | 10 |
| 55.0% | 22 | Pass% | 54.4% | 23 |
| 39.5% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 40.9% | 11 |
| 60.6% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 59.1% | 22 |
- The Steelers have scored a touchdown on 12.1 percent (4-of-33) of their possessions at home this season, 30th in the league.
- Antonio Brown was targeted on a season-low 18.8 percent of his routes last week after averaging 31.9 percent per week through eight games.
- Team WR1s average 9.7 targets per game versus the Titans, the second-most in the league (Kansas City, 10.6 per game).
- Le’Veon Bell has averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in six games this season, the most he’s had in a year since having seven such games in 2014.
- Bell has had 25 touches or more in six straight games, the second time he’s had such a streak over his career. The only other backs with multiple six game stretches of 25 plus touches are Edgerrin James, Eric Dickerson and Ricky Williams.
- Tennessee averages 18.8 yards per drive on the road this season, the fewest in the league.
- After allowing 6.9 passing points per game through five games, Pittsburgh is allowing 13.8 per game over their past four games.
- After allowing just one wide receiver to reach 60 yards in a game through seven weeks, Pittsburgh as allowed five over the past two games.
- The Titans are one of two teams (New Orleans) in the league with more rushing touchdowns (12) than passing touchdowns (11).
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (he’s in another dry spell for producing splash plays and that may continue in the run game as Tennessee is fifth in rushing points allowed per game, but his volume paired with versatility are the best available and the Titans are 29th in receiving points allowed per game to backs), Antonio Brown (he was WR51 last week, but he’s followed up his first two games at WR3 or lower this season with 25 plus points the next week and the Titans have been as giving to lead wideouts as anyone in the league)
Bust: Delanie Walker (he’s had double-digit points in three straight games, but the Steelers have been a tough draw for opposing tight ends, allowing the fewest yards and fantasy points per target to the position while holding Travis Kelce, Jack Doyle, Kyle Rudolph all to TE20 or lower weeks), DeMarco Murray (I haven’t gotten him right all season, so feel free to light this portion on fire, but his share of team rushing attempts has dropped in three straight games while the Steelers haven’t allowed a back to hit 50-yards on the ground Since Week 5), Derrick Henry (he’s had double-digit touches in four games in a row, but with no receiving work, you’re stuck waiting on a touchdown or the Titans to nurse a huge lead)
Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger (he’s been in the lower-end QB1 mix in each of his past three games while the Titans have allowed multiple touchdown passes to every capable quarterback they’ve faced so far on the year), JuJu Smith-Schuster (even with Martavis Bryant returning, he drew 22.6 percent of the team targets. I’d expect that to go down a bit with Brown in such a good spot, but Smith-Schuster has scored in three straight games to give him a safety net if volume dips at all), Marcus Mariota (he’s due for some positive touchdown production and the Steelers have started to give up some passing production while they are going to be missing multiple pieces in the secondary on Thursday), Rishard Matthews (he’s still your best bet to catch a touchdown of this group and will get the most opportunity against Coty Sensabaugh, who is replacing Joe Haden), Corey Davis (he’s still a leap of faith for production,but this is spot to take a swipe at his breakout. He’s led the team in routes run in each of two games since returning and has now had 10 targets in two of his three full games played)
Editor’s Note: DFS pro Andy Means shares four players you should build around in Week 11. Find the plays here!
Jaguars @ Browns
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 15.0 | ||
| 25.1 | 9 | Points/Gm | 15.9 | 31 |
| 14.9 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 26.7 | 30 |
| 67.4 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 8 |
| 62.2 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 8 |
| 50.3% | 1 | Rush% | 37.0% | 28 |
| 49.8% | 32 | Pass% | 63.0% | 5 |
| 42.0% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 45.1% | 26 |
| 58.0% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 54.9% | 7 |
- The Jaguars have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on just 3-of-50 possessions on the road this season.
- Jacksonville has forced 11 turnovers on the road this season, the most in the league.
- Duke Johnson‘s share of the Cleveland rushing attempts has gone from 18.2 percent, 22.7, 26.9, 27.3 to 30.3 percent over the past five games.
- After allowing opposing backfields to rush for 119.7 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry through six games, Jacksonville has allowed 54.7 yards on 2.9 YPC to backfields over their past three games.
- Opponents have converted 76 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns against Cleveland, the second-highest rate in the league.
- The Browns are allowing a touchdown pass once every 15.1 pass attempts, tied for the highest rate in the league.
- 43.9 percent of the yardage gained by Jacksonville has been rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 27.3 percent of the yardage gained against Cleveland has been rushing, the second lowest rate in the league.
- Cleveland faces the lowest rate of pass attempts on targets 15 yards or further downfield (12.2 percent), but allows 51.4 percent of those to be completed, the highest success rate in the league.
Trust: Blake Bortles (he’s had 16 or more points in each of his past three games and Cleveland has allowed a top-10 quarterback in five of their past seven games and the bulk of them have been from players that frequent the bottom-half of the position, while allowing multiple touchdown passes in a league-high seven games)
Bust: DeShone Kizer (his legs have propped up some usable weeks from him, but we’re not targeting the Jaguars defense with any quarterback we must talk ourselves into when they even have a good matchup), CLE WRs (Corey Coleman is back, but leave him on the shelf for this one as this Cleveland unit is completely out-classed here), Dede Westbrook (it’s one of the best spots of the season for Bortles, so if you want to swing from your heels in the first game that Westbrook is active, you’re going to need a splash play against a team that will allow them, but faces the fewest opportunities for them)
Reasonable Return: Marqise Lee (he’s had 39 targets over his past four games with a top-30 scoring week in each of those games), Marcedes Lewis (he’s only a play for chasing a touchdown, but there are worse weeks to chase it with the Browns allowing the second-most touchdowns to the position), Isaiah Crowell (he’s had two strong weeks in a row, with 118 and 95 yards from scrimmage, but he’s still just an RB2 this week against a Jacksonville team that has shown improvement against the run), Duke Johnson (he’s getting increased use in the run game, which has helped out an already steady RB2/flex floor), Leonard Fournette (coming off his worst game of the season and dealing with an ankle injury that continues to linger, the Browns have been a solid rushing defense all season that can make his efficiency ugly once again if he fails to find the end zone)
Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!
Buccaneers @ Dolphins
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 20.0 | ||
| 19.2 | 22 | Points/Gm | 15.2 | 32 |
| 23.1 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 24.9 | 25 |
| 63.1 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 25 |
| 65.3 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 4 |
| 36.8% | 29 | Rush% | 37.1% | 27 |
| 63.2% | 4 | Pass% | 62.9% | 6 |
| 43.2% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 44.4% | 24 |
| 56.8% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 55.6% | 9 |
- Opposing teams are converting 77.3 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Dolphins, the highest rate in the league.
- Cameron Brate played just 46 percent of the Week 10 snaps, his lowest rate of the season.
- Brate has been targeted 12.3 percent of the time by Ryan Fitzpatrick after receiving 16.1 percent of the targets from Jameis Winston.
- Miami ranks 32nd in receptions (7.0) and 29th in receiving yardage allowed (64.6) per game to opposing tight ends.
- The Buccaneers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards as a team in six straight games, their longest streak since 2001.
- Jarvis Landry‘s five touchdowns inside of the 10-yard are tied with Jimmy Graham and DeAndre Hopkins for the most in the league.
- Tampa Bay has allowed five or more receptions to six different running backs this season, the most in the league.
Trust: Mike Evans (two duds and a suspension have owners disgruntled, but this is a bounce back spot for Evans against a limited secondary that is 31st in points allowed per target to opposing wideouts and is 28th in touchdown rate allowed to the position)
Bust: Julius Thomas (he’s scored in each of the past two games, but has had three or fewer receptions in every game but one while Tampa Bay is sixth in receptions allowed per game to opposing tight ends)
Reasonable Return: DeSean Jackson (he had a season-high 10 targets with Evans absent last week, but even with a few fewer targets, he’s still a big play target against a Miami team that has allowed a touchdown of 30-yards or longer to a wide receiver in four of their past five games), Doug Martin (he’s been a rough fantasy option with three straight games as an RB3 or lower, but he’s had 19 or more touches in three of his past four games while the Miami run defense has allowed the best fantasy rushing games of the season for each of Jonathan Stewart, Marshawn Lynch and Alex Collins over the past three weeks), Ryan Fitzpatrick (even with a letdown a week ago, he’s still one of the best streaming options this week against a Miami defense that is 21st in passing points allowed per game), Cameron Brate (two catches over his past two games and a loss of targets from Fitzpatrick make him hard to stomach, but the Dolphins have allowed a touchdown or 100-yards to the lead receiving tight end in each of their past four games), Jarvis Landry (he’s averaging just 52.4 yards per game, his lowest since his rookie season, but has still had five or more catches in every game and has been utilized as a scoring option when Miami can get to the doorstep), DeVante Parker (he’s been the wide receiver version of Lamar Miller, posting a top-30 game in all five of his full games with just one higher than WR25, but we’re consistently targeting wide receiver play against Tampa Bay), Kenyan Drake/Damien Williams (Drake has been the better player here post-Ajayi with 104 and 92 yards from scrimmage and has shown the ability to create splash plays, but Williams still is getting enough touches to keep both on the board as flex options against a Tampa Bay defense allowing a lot of receptions to opposing backfields), Jay Cutler (this setup reminds me a lot like the Raiders game from two weeks ago where all of his passing options have solid outlooks and Tampa Bay is 29th in completion rate allowed, which will let Cutler nickel and dime his way to a decent game)
Ravens @ Packers
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | Spread | 2 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 18.0 | ||
| 21.1 | 18 | Points/Gm | 22.7 | 14 |
| 19.0 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 23.0 | 18 |
| 65.3 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 23 |
| 64.0 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 19 |
| 44.4% | 13 | Rush% | 38.0% | 24 |
| 55.6% | 20 | Pass% | 62.1% | 9 |
| 47.2% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 45.2% | 27 |
| 52.8% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 54.8% | 6 |
- The Packers have scored two or fewer touchdowns in four straight games for the first time since 2007.
- Jamaal Williams has the most carries in the league (31) without a run of 10 or more yards on the season.
- Baltimore is allowing 2.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs over their past two games after allowing 4.4 yards per carry over their previous games.
- 30.9 percent of Joe Flacco‘s completions have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 32 percent of Brett Hundley‘s completions have gained 10 or more yards, the next lowest in the league. League average is 45.9 percent.
- Baltimore is allowing 16.9 passing yards per drive, second in the league behind Jacksonville (15.8).
- 26.2 percent of Davante Adams’ receptions (11-of-42) have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- Adams has received 27.3 percent of the team targets from Hundley after receiving 20.4 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ targets.
Trust: Jeremy Maclin (he’s been the WR14 in each of his weeks back from injury while this is another strong matchup against a Packers team that is 28th in points allowed to receivers)
Bust: Jamaal Williams (he’s a volume-based flex options, but the Ravens have only been run once with Brandon Williams in the lineup and it was his first game back from injury. Some of that is schedule induced, but the Packers aren’t an offense that is going to impose their run game on many teams), Brett Hundley (he’s an option to produce some scoring with his legs, but Baltimore is not a target for us, trailing only Jacksonville in passing points allowed per game), Jordy Nelson (he’s been the WR90, WR43 and WR70 in Hundley’s three starts and has 35 or fewer yards in four of his past five games), Joe Flacco (he’s yet to finish higher than QB16 this season), BAL RBs (with Danny Woodhead returning, things are bit sketchy for how usage will be distributed. Alex Collins should remain the thumper with a low ceiling, with Buck Allen a wildcard. I trust Woodhead the most this week and for the remainder of the season, but his injury is also one to proceed with caution on coming out of the blocks while all three could be used), Randall Cobb (at least he’s been better than Nelson with Hundley under center, but still hasn’t been a usable fantasy option)
Reasonable Return: Davante Adams (he’s getting the targets and red zone looks from Hundley, but still is only a WR3 this week as odds are high that he’ll be the one who draws Jimmy Smith for the majority of the afternoon), Mike Wallace (not only have the Packers allowed production to lead receivers, but they’ve allowed sets of teammates to post top-25 weeks in four of their past five games)
Lions @ Bears
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 27.1 | 6 | Points/Gm | 16.7 | 29 |
| 23.3 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 13 |
| 64.0 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 60.1 | 28 |
| 63.0 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 13 |
| 37.7% | 25 | Rush% | 48.1% | 3 |
| 62.3% | 8 | Pass% | 51.9% | 30 |
| 40.6% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 44.6% | 25 |
| 59.4% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 55.4% | 8 |
- Chicago has scored a touchdown on 6-of-57 possessions (10.5 percent) since Mitchell Trubisky took over as starting quarterback, 31st in the league.
- 82.8 percent of Jordan Howard‘s fantasy output is from rushing production, the highest dependency of all top-36 scoring running backs.
- Coming out of the bye, Dontrelle Inman played a season-high 95 percent of the team snaps in Week 10, leading the team in routes (37) and receptions (six) while finishing tied with a team-high eight targets.
- Even with a bye, Golden Tate is the WR6 over the past five weeks, averaging 19.1 points per game and finishing as the WR3, WR16, WR12 and the WR6.
- Matthew Stafford has been a QB1 in just three of eight games in Chicago, throwing nine touchdown passes to 11 interceptions in those games.
- The Bears have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just one game, tied with Jacksonville and Buffalo for the fewest in the league.
Bust: Matthew Stafford (he’s been hot over the past month, but I view him more as a high-end Q2 this week as he has shown that he is a very matchup driven quarterback over the past three years and the Bears have allowed just two quarterbacks to finish higher than QB17 on the season), Marvin Jones (I don’t want to eject too quickly on Jones just because of his one catch game last week, but Chicago isn’t allowing touchdowns to the position and not allowing multiple receivers to make a weekly impact), Eric Ebron (he got his touchdown versus the Browns, but still had only had two catches, his eighth game with three or fewer receptions), Mitchell Trubisky (the Bears have let him throw it over 30 times in each of the past two games and he’s coming off his best game as a pro last week, but has yet to produce a QB1 week and Detroit is 12th in passing points allowed per game)
Reasonable Return: Golden Tate (he has six or more receptions in four straight games, but the Bears have allowed just one wide receiver to score since Week 4), Ameer Abdullah (finding the end zone in each of the past two weeks has helped his cause, but the Bears are 25th in rushing points allowed per attempt), Theo Riddick (he’s had double-digit touches just once, but has held flex value as he’s been the RB26 or higher in four of his past five games), Jordan Howard (Detroit is middle of the pack in just about every measure against the run, so there’s nothing imposing or enhancing here, but Howard’s run up and down for fantasy all season long because he lacks the two things vital to save pedestrian games, which is receptions and touchdowns), Dontrelle Inman (he’s in the mix as floor-based WR3/flex. It took a few weeks to get him up to speed, but the Bears traded for him for a reason)
Rams @ Vikings
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 21.8 | Implied Total | 24.3 | ||
| 32.9 | 1 | Points/Gm | 24.1 | 10 |
| 18.0 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 5 |
| 63.7 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 12 |
| 62.8 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.7 | 12 |
| 48.2% | 2 | Rush% | 46.1% | 9 |
| 51.8% | 31 | Pass% | 53.9% | 24 |
| 42.0% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 38.1% | 3 |
| 58.1% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 61.9% | 30 |
- The Rams are scoring 37.4 points per game on the road, the most in the league. The Vikings are allowing 15.2 points per game at home, the second fewest in the league.
- The Rams are allowing .93 passing points per possession, fourth in the league. Minnesota is allowing 1.09 passing points per possession, ninth.
- The Rams are third in the league in red zone plays per game (10.0), but rank 30th in percentage of those plays run from inside of the 10-yard line (35.7 percent) and rank 21st in red zone touchdown rate (51.2 percent).
- Robert Woods has 11 receptions of 20 or more yards (T-5th), already matching his career-high in a single season set in 2014.
- 21.4 percent of Jared Goff‘s completions have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate for all quarterbacks not on injured reserved.
- 10.5 percent of the completions against Minnesota have gained 20 or more yards, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- Adam Thielen leads the league in receptions (17) on targets 15 yards or further downfield while Stefon Diggs ranks third (13).
- Thielen has converted 68 percent (17-of-25) of his deep targets --third for all players with double-digit of those targets--while converting 58 percent of his targets fewer than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.
- 76.9 percent of Digg’s receiving yardage has come on those downfield targets, the highest rate in the league for all players with double-digit deep targets.
- 40.4 percent of Todd Gurley‘s rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, the third highest rate for all backs with 50 or more carries on the season. Last year, 26.9 percent of his carries went for five or more yards, 56th for all backs.
Trust: Adam Thielen (he has double-digit targets in four straight games and each of the past two with Diggs back in the lineup and his volume is warranted as he’s been on the best vertical and slot options at his position)
Bust: Jared Goff (as hot as he’s been, he’s been one of the most matchup driven fantasy options on the season, so he needs to show us this week against a Minnesota team on the road that is seventh in passing points allowed per game and have allowed just four touchdown passes over their past seven games that he’s a weekly start. He’s averaged 21.9 points per game against bottom-12 pass defense in terms of passing points allowed per game and 9.6 points per game in his three games versus top-20 teams), Sammy Watkins (he found the paint in each of the past two games in which we were heavily invested in Goff, but has a much tougher matchup and only had five total targets those weeks), Kyle Rudolph (he has five or more receptions in five straight games, but has yet to hit 50-yards in any game while the Rams have only allowed TE1 weeks to Jimmy Graham and Evan Engram on the season), Latavius Murray (he’s become the Vikings version of Jonathan Stewart, finishing as RB40 or lower in his three games without a touchdown since this Dalvin Cook was lost for the season)
Reasonable Return: Todd Gurley (the usage and receiving work is enough to keep plugging away, but the Vikings have allowed the fewest touchdowns to running backs this season and are fifth in total yards allowed to the position per game and Gurley’s two worst fantasy weeks –RB47 and RB20—came in games where Goff had his toughest matchups), Stefon Diggs (the Rams have allowed just five top-24 receivers on the season while the few ones that have found success –Marqise Lee, Pierre Garcon and Bruce Ellington—fit the archetype of where Thielen wins more so than Diggs), Robert Woods (I expect the touchdowns to come back down and this week is a good spot as Minnesota may choose to use Xavier Rhodes on him when he’s outside, but he’s posted 5-102-1 from the slot over the past two weeks with 35 percent of his routes coming from the interior over those games, so he can get away from Rhodes for a bit), Cooper Kupp (he has the best individual matchup of the group, but has been completely touchdown driven, failing to finish as a WR3 or better in any game without a score), Jerick McKinnon (he’s now been out-touched by Murray and been an RB3 in two of the past three games, but is still the primary receiver of the group, which gives him the best combination of floor and upside of this backfield), Case Keenum (he’s been the QB5 and the QB6 in his past two games and while this matchup is a tougher draw than either of those games, it’s at home and his weaponry has to be accounted for in aiding his production)
Cardinals @ Texans
| Arizona | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 19.5 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 17.2 | 27 | Points/Gm | 26.2 | 7 |
| 24.8 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 26.8 | 31 |
| 66.4 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 6 |
| 66.9 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 6 |
| 35.8% | 30 | Rush% | 45.0% | 12 |
| 64.2% | 3 | Pass% | 55.0% | 21 |
| 40.2% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 42.4% | 17 |
| 59.8% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 57.6% | 16 |
- The Texans are allowing a touchdown once every 13.1 targets to opposing wide receivers, the highest rate in the league.
- Since their bye, Houston has allowed the WR4 (Paul Richardson - 28.5 pts), the WR1 (TY Hilton - 34.5 pts) and the WR1 (Robert Woods - 37.1 pts).
- Arizona has scored a touchdown on just 5-of-12 possessions (41.7 percent) on drives inside of the 10-yard line, the lowest rate in the league.
- After averaging 19.5 touches per game through seven games, Lamar Miller has had just 13 and 12 touches over the past two weeks.
- DeAndre Hopkins has 12 or more targets in six games this season, the most in the league. The next highest player has three such games.
- Opposing team WR1s are averaging 6.7 targets per game against Arizona, 29th in the league.
- Houston has now scored a touchdown on 4-of-62 possessions with Tom Savage under center.
- Blaine Gabbert averaged 5.9 rushing points per start in 2016, third for all quarterbacks.
Trust: Larry Fitzgerald (he had a huge fourth quarter on Thursday to show us that he’s still capable of having a WR1 ceiling without Carson Palmer and while Houston may not allow another top-5 week to a wideout, there’s still opportunity to take advantage of them bleeding out defensively)
Bust: Tom Savage (he’s been the QB22 and QB28 as the starter), DeAndre Hopkins (you’re of course continuing to start him with the type of volume he’s getting, but Patrick Peterson is on the short list of guys to truly dampen expectations for)
Reasonable Return: Adrian Peterson (he’s played 74 and 77 percent of the snaps in the two games that Arizona has won and 42 percent and 45 percent in their losses and while this isn’t a great individual matchup, the opportunity for Arizona to make this a neutral paced game keep him in play as an RB2), John Brown (there aren’t many weeks to take a shot on him hitting a splash play, but this is one of them if you’re fishing for an upside dart. Houston has allowed 11 receptions of 25 or more yards over the past three weeks –the most in the league--three of which have been touchdowns), Blaine Gabbert (he averaged 5.9 rushing points per start in 2016 --third for all quarterbacks—with two top-10 weeks. Houston is 24th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed a top-10 scorer in four of their past five games), Lamar Miller (he’s had more than 70 yards from scrimmage in every game but one, but had 100 yards from scrimmage just once), C.J. Fiedorowicz (he had just six of 35 targets in his first game back from a long layoff, but with Will Fuller out and Arizona ranking 24th in receptions allowed per game to opposing tight ends, he’s a low-ceiling streaming option), Bruce Ellington (he carries a low floor, but has eight targets in each of the starts made by Savage if in need of a flex while Hopkins deals with Peterson for most of the game)
Chiefs @ Giants
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | NY Giants | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10.5 | Spread | 10.5 | ||
| 27.3 | Implied Total | 16.8 | ||
| 28.1 | 5 | Points/Gm | 16.7 | 28 |
| 23.1 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 26.4 | 28 |
| 59.8 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 24 |
| 65.4 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 28 |
| 40.9% | 18 | Rush% | 35.7% | 31 |
| 59.1% | 15 | Pass% | 64.3% | 2 |
| 41.9% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 45.7% | 28 |
| 58.1% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 54.3% | 5 |
- Andy Reid’s teams have a 16-2 record returning from a bye week.
- The Giants are allowing .547 passing points per attempt to opposing passers, the most in the league.
- Alex Smith is averaging .573 passing points per attempt, second for all active quarterbacks behind Carson Wentz (.593).
- The Giants have allowed 10 touchdowns from outside of the red zone this season, the most in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored 11 touchdowns from outside of the red zone this season, second in the league.
- 48.1 percent of the passing yards allowed by the Giants are on completions of 20 or more yards, 31st in the league.
- 40.9 percent of Smith’s passing yards have come on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
- The Giants have allowed 150.7 rushing yards per game over their past three games, 31st in the league.
- Opposing teams have run the ball on 54.2 percent of their plays over the past three games versus the Giants, the highest rate in the league.
- Evan Engram is the first Giants’ tight end to catch a touchdown pass in four straight games since Mark Bavaro in 1987.
- Sterling Shepard has received 26.5 percent of the team targets in his three games played with Odell Beckham out of the lineup. In those games, he has at least eight targets and 12 points in each game.
- Teams are targeting wide receivers 64.5 percent of the time versus Kansas City, the most in the league and opposing wide receivers have accounted for 56.3 percent of the points scored against the Chiefs, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Alex Smith (the first few bullet points should be enough to cover how strong this matchup is coming off a bye against a defense circling the drain) Travis Kelce (did you hear that the Giants have allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in every game this season? Well, they’re also 28th in receptions and 30th in yards allowed per game to the position while Kelce has more 100 yard receiving games since the start of last season than anyone else in the league), Kareem Hunt (he played a season-low 54 percent of the team snaps before the bye, but this is a spot for him to come out reinvigorated and have increased scoring odds), Tyreek Hill (the Giants have allowed five touchdowns to wideouts over their past three games, four of which have been 35 yards or longer), Evan Engram (the hottest tight end facing a Chiefs team that is 31st in yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends)
Reasonable Return: Eli Manning (he did what he was supposed to last week as a streaming option, finishing as the QB12 in a favorable matchup blowout and the table is set up similarly this week against the 25th ranked team in passing points allowed per game), Orleans Darkwa (he’s been a steady RB2 option, but is consistently capped from elevating past that point with the Giants being forced out of competition weekly)
Washington @ Saints
| Washington | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 21.8 | Implied Total | 29.3 | ||
| 23.0 | 12 | Points/Gm | 29.8 | 3 |
| 25.8 | 26 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 6 |
| 63.1 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 14 |
| 62.6 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 3 |
| 40.9% | 19 | Rush% | 47.3% | 5 |
| 59.2% | 14 | Pass% | 52.7% | 28 |
| 42.8% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 39.7% | 8 |
| 57.2% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 60.3% | 25 |
- The Saints have won multiple games without a touchdown pass in a season for the first time since 2009.
- Since their Week 5 bye, the Saints have rushed for 180.8 yards per game, the most in the league.
- Over that span, the Saints have scored 18 offensive touchdowns, the most in the league. Five of those touchdowns have been passing scores, 21st in the league and 27.8 percent of their team total.
- 69.2 percent of the offensive touchdowns in the NFL this season have been passing touchdowns.
- Over that span, Washington has rushed for 70.0 yards per game, 30th in the league.
- Samaje Perine is averaging .32 rushing points per carry, the fewest all backs with 50 or more carries on the season.
- Michael Thomas’ target per route rate since the Adrian Peterson trade: 18.5%, 27.8%, 28.6%, 39.3%, 40.0%.
- Washington leads the league with 25 plays run inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line. New Orleans has allowed opponents to run just five plays inside of the 5-yard all season, tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the league.
- Jamison Crowder has been targeted on 25.9 percent of his routes over his past two games played after receiving a target on 15.7 percent of his routes prior.
Trust: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Washington is seventh in the league in total yards allowed per game to opposing backfields, but this is the league’s hottest running game at home attached to the largest team total to open the week), Drew Brees (it’s doubtful that get the weekly high-yardage ceiling back, but Brees is overdue for positive touchdown regression and it may come this week against a Washington defense that has allowed the QB1, QB6 and QB5 in three of their past four games with multiple touchdown passes in those three weeks), Chris Thompson (he had a season-high 20 touches the last time that Rob Kelley was inactive and opposing teams have targeted their running backs 27.5 percent of the time versus the Saints, the highest rate in the league), Vernon Davis (he’s been the TE5,TE6 and TE6 in the three games that Reed has missed, receiving 23.6 percent of the team targets)
Bust: Samaje Perine (he’s hardly been usable when Kelley has previously vacated touches, your hope with him is that this ends up a shootout and he finds the end zone), Josh Doctson (he’s still yet to turn in a WR3 or better week and will draw another tough assignment this week on the perimeter against Marshon Lattimore)
Reasonable Return: Michael Thomas (he continues to churn out steady weekly lines, but has just failed to reach the end zone, but Washington has been far more vulnerable to hybrid/slot options than strictly perimeter options), Ted Ginn (there’s always a floor risk with Ginn as he’s had more than four catches just once on the season, but the New Orleans pecking order is thinner than in year’s past while we’re always circling their roster in these potentially high-scoring home games), Kirk Cousins (his ceiling came back once he got his offensive line back to full strength. The Saints haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish higher than QB11 since Week 2, but Matthew Stafford was the best one they’ve faced and he hit for 300-yards and three scores), Jamison Crowder (he hasn’t scored a touchdown over his past 12 games played, but is slipping back to relevancy with WR6 and WR33 weeks over his past two games and will avoid Lattimore on the interior)
Bills @ Chargers
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 19.8 | Implied Total | 23.8 | ||
| 20.4 | 20 | Points/Gm | 18.6 | 23 |
| 21.8 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 19.1 | 9 |
| 61.9 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 27 |
| 65.7 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 30 |
| 47.6% | 4 | Rush% | 38.5% | 23 |
| 52.4% | 29 | Pass% | 61.5% | 10 |
| 42.3% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 43.2% | 20 |
| 57.7% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 56.8% | 13 |
- The Chargers face 31.7 touches per game to opposing running backs, 30th in the league.
- After averaging 25 touches per game through seven games, LeSean McCoy has 23 total touches over the past two weeks.
- The Bills have trailed for 90.3 percent of their offensive snaps the past two weeks. After not trailing by multiple possessions for any snaps prior to Week 9, they’ve trailed by two or more possessions for 57 percent of their plays the past two weeks.
- After allowing 80.1 rushing yards per game through their first six games, the Bills have allowed 194 and 298 rushing yards the past two weeks, the first time they have allowed 175 or more rushing yards in back to back games since 2012.
- After averaging 81 percent of the snaps over his first five full games, Melvin Gordon has played 69 percent, 59 percent and 68 percent of the snaps over the Chargers’ past three games.
- Austin Ekeler has been targeted on 42.3 percent of his routes, the highest rate for all running backs.
- After receiving 27.4 percent of the team targets through four games, Keenan Allen has received 22 percent over their past four, totaling 16 catches for 195 yards and zero touchdowns.
- The Bills are allowing a passing touchdown once every 46.7 pass attempts, the second-lowest rate in the league.
Trust: Melvin Gordon (he has gone under 50 yards from scrimmage in two of his past three games and Ekeler is playing more and more snaps, but Gordon still has 19, 15 and 21 touches over his past three games and the Bills have been steamrolled on the ground over their past two games)
Bust: Philip Rivers (he’s in early concussion protocol this week and just one quarterback has finished higher than QB15 against Buffalo on the season), Hunter Henry (the upside is always there, but you just can’t place any trust in his usage as the Chargers apparently hate us and him because he’s fallen back out favor, running just 14 and 19 pass routes over his past two games), Nathan Peterman (he draws his first career start on the road against a defense that can rush the passer and has allowed just two QB1 weeks on the season and just three passers to finish higher than QB16 on the season), Charles Clay (I’d be hesitant to use him until he shows us he’s fully healthy. He ran just 16 pass routes last week and looked half speed while doing so), Kelvin Benjamin (his 21.4 percent target share was right in line with his use while in Carolina, but gets another rough draw this week against Casey Hayward)
Reasonable Return: Keenan Allen (he’s been a top-30 scorer in just one of his past seven games and has received fewer than 20 percent of the team targets over the past two weeks, but Buffalo has allowed a top-20 wideout in five straight games to the opposing team’s lead receiver), Austin Ekeler (you can’t count on the touchdowns he’s scored in two of the past three games as a foundation, but he has worked his way into the flex discussion double-digit touches in two of those past three games), LeSean McCoy (the touches will inevitably recoil as Buffalo plays in more neutral paced games, but the Chargers run defense has been better recently than their overall numbers suggest as they haven’t allowed a lead back to hit 100-yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 4)
Bengals @ Broncos
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 16.6 | 30 | Points/Gm | 18.4 | 24 |
| 20.2 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 26.6 | 29 |
| 55.3 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 7 |
| 68.4 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 5 |
| 40.6% | 20 | Rush% | 41.1% | 17 |
| 59.4% | 13 | Pass% | 58.9% | 16 |
| 45.8% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 43.3% | 22 |
| 54.2% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 56.7% | 11 |
- Denver has allowed 20 or more points in five consecutive games for the first time since 2013.
- Since their Week 5 bye, Denver has been outscored by 97 points (68-165), the largest differential in the league.
- The Broncos have surrendered multiple touchdown passes in six games this season after just three times all of 2016 and six times all of 2015.
- After allowing 103.2 rushing yards per game through five weeks, the Bengals have allowed 149 yards rushing per game over their four games since.
- After having at least 50 percent of the team rushing attempts in each of the first six games of the season, C.J. Anderson has had 48.4 percent, 47.4 percent and 35.7 percent of the Denver carries over the past three weeks.
- Since their Week 6 bye, the Bengals have run 47.8 plays per game, the fewest in the league.
- Cincinnati is 24th in the league in red zone plays per game (6.9) and 32.3 percent of those plays have come from inside of the 10-yard line, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Bengals have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in six straight games for the first time since 1996.
Bust: Andy Dalton (Denver has been surrendering usable weeks to quarterbacks over the past month, but they’ve also come against teams such as Kansas City, Philadelphia and New England that have shown they can score on anyone, not just elevating passers from the back half of the position, which is what Dalton is), Brock Osweiler (he’s been the QB24 and QB25 since taking over as the starter), Demaryius Thomas/ Emmanuel Sanders (the Bengals are second in the league in receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers and fourth in yardage allowed to the position, partly because it’s a strength of their defense and partly because teams just continuously run the ball on them, but volume and production for both are in jeopardy here if Denver can run the ball well)
Reasonable Return: A.J. Green (while it’s not a game to expect a high-ceiling game, he did have 8-77 in this matchup a year ago), Joe Mixon (he doesn’t offer much of a ceiling and we don’t anticipate to run the ball here, but he’s held a flex floor, finishing as a top-30 back in six of the past seven games), Giovani Bernard (for those looking for a desperate flex, Bernard got back involved with Jeremy Hill placed on injured reserve, receiving 14 percent of the team targets last week while Denver has allowed four receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs over their past four games), Tyler Kroft (his one catch game last week is a reminder that he’s far from a sure bet, but he still has 17 percent of the team targets and 28.5 percent of the fantasy points scored by skill players against Denver have been posted by tight ends, the highest rate in the league), C.J. Anderson (I know you don’t really want to play after he hasn’t been an RB2 or better in any of his past five games, but this a game were the Broncos have some probability of keeping in a neutral pace and the Bengals have allowed an RB2 or better in every single game this season while they’ve have been getting gashed since their bye on the ground)
Patriots @ Raiders (in Mexico City)
| New England | Rank | @ | Oakland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 29.3 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 28.6 | 4 | Points/Gm | 21.8 | 16 |
| 21.7 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 23.8 | 23 |
| 68.7 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 57.8 | 31 |
| 63.0 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 9 |
| 40.5% | 21 | Rush% | 37.1% | 26 |
| 59.6% | 12 | Pass% | 62.9% | 7 |
| 38.8% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 46.1% | 30 |
| 61.2% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 53.9% | 3 |
- Oakland is allowing opponents to score on 44.9 percent of their possessions, 31st in the league.
- The Patriots have scored on 52.1 percent of their drives, the second-highest rate in the league.
- The Raiders are allowing 8.9 adjusted passing yards per attempt, the most in the league.
- Tom Brady is averaging 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt, second to only Alex Smith (9.4).
- Oakland is allowing opposing passers to complete 71.2 percent of their passes, the highest rate in the league and the highest rate through nine games in franchise history.
- Since returning from injury, Rex Burkhead‘s snap rate has gone from 17.6 percent to 31.4 percent to 51.4 percent.
- Burkhead is being targeted on 32.7 percent of his routes, the fourth-highest rate of all running backs.
- After averaging 27.2 routes per game through five games, James White is averaging 13.5 per game over his past four games per Pro Football Focus.
- Opponents have scored on just 24 percent of their possessions versus New England since Week 5, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
- Over that span, New England is still allowing 37.3 yards per possession, 28th in the league.
- 35.9 percent of Marshawn Lynch‘s fantasy output has come from touchdowns, the highest dependency of all top-40 scoring running backs.
- 85.5 percent of the rushing attempts against the Patriots have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- Oakland is the only team in the league with more touchdowns from outside of the red zone (12) than from inside (11).
Trust: Tom Brady (he just keeps cruising along while the Raiders have allowed a QB1 in four straight games, including back to back weeks to Tyrod Taylor and Jay Cutler), Rob Gronkowski (he’s had just two weeks outside of TE1 production while Oakland is 23rd in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends per game), Brandin Cooks (known for previously being a volatile fantasy option, Cooks has held a solid floor this season and this is a spot where he can hit his ceiling against an Oakland team that is 26th in yards per target to opposing wide receivers and a team he posted a 6/143/2 line against a year ago with the Saints)
Reasonable Return: Derek Carr (there’s shootout potential here, so Carr has some upside beyond being a floor play. The Patriots have improved, but they have been bending, but not breaking on defense, rather than shutting down the pass, but Carr has been a QB1 in just one of his past six games and largely been a hallow yardage producer himself), Rex Burkhead/Dion Lewis/James White (all three cap each other’s ceiling, but the New England offense is one that can support all three as flex types with upside. White appears to be the most flimsy at the moment since he’s reliant on just one component to produce, which is compromised by Burkhead’s involvement, but all three can usable weeks most weeks and especially this week against a defense that is 30th in receiving points allowed to opposing backfields), Danny Amendola (ignore him if Chris Hogan plays, but with Hogan out, he’s a floor flex play), Marshawn Lynch (you’re still at the mercy of him finding the end zone, which makes him only an RB2 option, but there are worse games to chase a touchdown and the Patriots have been run on if the Raiders ever do decide to give Lynch more than 15 touches in a game), Amari Cooper (he’s at least given us a usable floor the past two weeks with WR31 and WR35 scoring weeks. If that can be his floor, we’ll live with it over the basement production we were getting in the early season), Jared cook (he’s the only tight end outside of Travis Kelce to post multiple 100-yard games and has been a TE1 in each of his past three games), Michael Crabtree (he hasn’t been a WR1 for three straight games and has averaged 49.8 yards per game over his past four, so he needs to be handled as a mid-WR2)
Eagles @ Cowboys
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 31.4 | 2 | Points/Gm | 25.9 | 8 |
| 19.9 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 22.8 | 17 |
| 66.6 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 15 |
| 61.6 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 18 |
| 47.3% | 6 | Rush% | 46.4% | 8 |
| 52.8% | 27 | Pass% | 53.7% | 25 |
| 30.0% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 38.3% | 4 |
| 70.0% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 61.7% | 29 |
- The Eagles have had the lead for 61.1 percent of their offensive snaps and 78.5 percent of their snaps in the second half this season, the highest rates in the league.
- The Eagles allow .359 passing points per attempts (11th) but face the most passing attempts per game (40.3).
- Dallas allows 23.9 pass completions per game (30th) while Philadelphia allows 24.8 per game (32nd).
- Opponents have scored on 48.6 of their possessions in Dallas, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, the longest streak by an Eagles quarterback since Donavan McNabb in 2006.
- Philadelphia has rushed over 100 yards as a team in eight straight games, the longest streak in the league and their longest streak as a franchise since 2011.
- Alfred Morris played 22 snaps with 11 touches, Rod Smith played 38 snaps with seven touches and Darren McFadden played just one snaps with a touch in the Cowboys’ first game without Ezekiel Elliott.
- Dallas ran the ball off the left tackle and left end on just one of their 21 rushing attempts last week after rushing in that direction for 21.9 percent of their runs through eight games.
- The Eagles are allowing 42.6 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, the fewest in the league.
- The eight sacks allowed by the Cowboys last week were the most they’ve allowed in a game since Week 3, 1991.
Trust: Carson Wentz (he’s been the QB8 or better in seven of nine games while Dallas is 23rd in passing points allowed per game), Zach Ertz (he’s been out of our minds for the past couple of weeks, but has been the most consistent fantasy option at the position, scoring double-digit points in every week), Alshon Jeffery (he’s had 30.4 percent of the team targets over the past four games after receiving 21.5 percent through the opening five weeks, with double-digit points in three of those four games)
Bust: Alfred Morris / Rod Smith (the Eagles have mushed the run all season long and are favorites to control game script, so Morris is only a desperation flex in hopes of getting a touchdown and while the game should set up for Smith to play more snaps again, Dallas has been reluctant to use any of their backs in the passing game, which makes him a longer play in a flex position), Dak Prescott (if Tyron Smith plays, I’d bump him up in a game where Dallas should be forced to throw and he always uses his legs, while Philadelphia has allowed a QB1 in six of their past eight games this season with only C.J. Beathard and Brock Osweiler failing to hit that mark)
Reasonable Return: Jay Ajayi/Corey Clement (these are the two guys I’d entertain using from this backfield. Ajayi as an RB2 and Clement as RB3/flex. There’s still a step of faith to take on Ajayi’s usage while Clement has continued to get more use each week, especially in the red zone, but the Eagles have continuously run the ball effectively and have led games while Dallas ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed to opposing backfields and will be without Sean Lee), Dez Bryant (he’s been a WR1 just twice on the season, so he needs to be handled with WR2/3 expectations, but the Eagles have allowed four WR1 scoring weeks to the opposing lead receiver on the season), Jason Witten (he’s still only a floor play, but with Dallas unlikely able to run or stay with providing attempts, Witten is the next in line for targets after Bryant), Nelson Agholor (he’s been unusable in games in which he fails to score, similar to Cooper Kupp, but Dallas has given up points to secondary wideouts and ones who primarily run out of the slot all season)
Falcons @ Seahawks
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 21.9 | 15 | Points/Gm | 23.4 | 11 |
| 19.9 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 7 |
| 60.7 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 5 |
| 63.0 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 21 |
| 42.5% | 15 | Rush% | 39.9% | 22 |
| 57.5% | 18 | Pass% | 60.1% | 11 |
| 41.8% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 39.4% | 6 |
| 58.2% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 60.6% | 27 |
- Opponents against Atlanta average 9.8 possessions per game, the fewest in the league.
- Seattle has thrown 71.8 percent inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Jimmy Graham leads the league with 11 targets from inside of the 10-yard line with nine of those targets coming from inside of the 5-yard line.
- Russell Wilson has accounted for 95.2 percent of the Seattle offensive touchdowns, the highest rate for all quarterbacks.
- Wilson leads all quarterbacks in fantasy output over the past four weeks (26.1 points per game), finishing as the QB4, QB1, QB6 and QB9.
- 4.7 percent of Julio Jones’ fantasy output has come from touchdown production, the lowest of all top-40 wide receivers on the season.
- Matt Ryan has thrown three or more touchdown passes in four of six games facing Seattle, the most for any quarterback since Pete Carroll joined the Seahawks in 2010. No other quarterback has had more than two such games.
Trust: Russell Wilson (Atlanta is top-10 in passing yardage and passing touchdowns allowed per game, but Wilson has been the entire Seattle offense from a passing, rushing and scoring perspective), Doug Baldwin (he’s had double-digit output in all four games since the bye and gets the best individual matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 18 plus points to both Jarvis Landry and Golden Tate, the two WR1s they’ve faced this season that primarily play out of the slot), Jimmy Graham (he has six touchdowns over his past five games and has been a TE1 in his past three games without a touchdown as well), Tevin Coleman (Freeman’s absence puts Coleman in a spot to be a rare 20 touch combo-back, which are few and far between for us. He’s had 18 touches for 110 yards and 21 touches for 88 yards and a touchdown in his two career games in which Freeman has not played or left the game. Seattle’s run defense has been legit over the past six games, allowing 2.6 yards per carry to opposing backs, but this elevates Coleman into the RB1 mix)
Bust: Paul Richardson/ Tyler Lockett (you can keep playing both in the flex while Wilson is playing so well, and each get downfield targets, but both come with basement-level floors combining for just five WR3 or better weeks on the season), Thomas Rawls (this team just isn’t built to traditionally run the football as Wilson is still their leading rusher while Chris Carson is second and Rawls doesn’t offer much in the receiving game)
Reasonable Return: Julio Jones (without Richard Sherman, his matchup turns to a favorable one, but Julio has yet crash his ceiling so far, providing us with more a stable weekly floor to build off of), Matt Ryan (his efficiency has picked up over the past four weeks, but like Julio, has been stuck in floor mode without breaking through that low QB1/high QB2 output), Austin Hooper (he’s finally found some stability, receiving at least six targets in three straight games while Seattle has allowed four TE1 scoring weeks over their past five games with Kam Chancellor on the field). Mohamed Sanu (he’s nothing more than a floor flex option as he’s had just six catches for 52 yards over the past two weeks, but continues to see use in the red zone), J.D. McKissic (he’s had fringe flex value in each of the past two games and had a season-high nine touches last week while Atlanta is 28th in receiving points per game allowed to running backs)
Context Key:
Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations
Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play that won’t hurt you
**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings
