After looking at play splits from micro and macro levels in 2016 as well as scoring and per drive output and the spillover each could have on the 2017 campaign, the next area of focus for this series is the red zone.
The red zone is a tricky subject for fantasy because we’re taking the final fifth of the football field and arbitrarily cutting it off as the premier scoring area where points are generated for real and fake football. It’s really no secret that the closer you get to the goal line, the higher your scoring odds increase. That’s no different once we reach the end zone. All red zone opportunities are far from created equal, but they often treated the same.
Plays, Splits and TD Output from each Yard Line in the Red Zone Over the Past 5 Years
Inherently, we know that a play from the 18-yard line isn’t as valuable as one from the 5-yard line, but they get lumped together in analysis all the time. When looking at what areas of the red zone see the most play calls, it’s not a huge shock to see the 1-yard line lead in terms of overall play volume given the automatic spot for defensive infractions in the end zone, but to see such a wide gap in volume is staggering. 7.6 percent of all red zone plays occur at the one, with a 383-play gap over the next closest yard line.
As far as pass and run rates, passing still rules offensive play calling for nearly the entirety of red zone plays, with rushing taking precedence on only the 1- and 2-yard lines with a major shift toward the run on all those red zone plays that come from the one.
As far as where touchdowns are generated, it bears out that the closer you are, the better odds you have to score. Over the past five years, 68.4 percent of all passing touchdowns in the red zone have occurred from the 10-yard line and in with 59.7 percent of those touchdowns coming from the 5-yard line and in. Rushing scores are shrunk down even further, with 71.7 percent of rushing touchdowns over that span coming from the 5-yard line and in and 50.2 percent of all rushing touchdowns in the red zone coming from two yards or closer.
The rate of rushing touchdowns per opportunity doesn’t hit 25 percent until we get inside of the 5-yard line and then catch up to passing attempts once you’re knocking on the door of the goal line. Passing touchdown rates cross the 25 percent mark inside of the 10-yard line and double up those attempts from 15 yards and further out. Once inside of the 5-yard line, they hit 40 percent while reaching 52 percent at the 1-yard line even though they are significantly dwarfed by rushing opportunity there in terms of play calling. When talking about the red zone, we should really be emphasizing inside of the 10-yard line for the passing game and inside of the 5-yard line for rushing and passing as the big-money zones. All in all, encompassing both the play volume and touchdown success rates highlighted so far, we can see how running backs were able to have a revival in terms of fantasy output in the 2016 season.
Plays Run Inside of the 5-Yard Over the Past Decade
| Year | Plays | Pass | Rush | RuTD | RuTD% | PaTD | PaTD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1032 | 452 | 580 | 272 | 61.40% | 185 | 23.54% |
| 2015 | 865 | 382 | 483 | 201 | 55.07% | 172 | 20.43% |
| 2014 | 901 | 418 | 483 | 210 | 55.26% | 187 | 23.17% |
| 2013 | 985 | 440 | 545 | 238 | 58.05% | 178 | 22.14% |
| 2012 | 895 | 382 | 513 | 224 | 55.86% | 167 | 22.06% |
| 2011 | 955 | 398 | 557 | 230 | 57.50% | 157 | 21.07% |
| 2010 | 915 | 362 | 553 | 220 | 55.14% | 157 | 20.91% |
| 2009 | 932 | 356 | 575 | 242 | 56.41% | 145 | 20.42% |
| 2008 | 914 | 327 | 587 | 277 | 58.19% | 145 | 22.45% |
| 2007 | 886 | 384 | 502 | 195 | 50.52% | 171 | 23.75% |
Before 2016, rushing touchdowns dropped in six of the previous 10 seasons and went all the way down to just 365 in 2015, the lowest in a season since 1999. Last year, rushing touchdowns went all the way back up 443, the 5th most ever in an NFL season. When you look at opportunities from inside of the money areas that we just emphasized, the league ran 167 more plays from inside the 5-yard line in 2016 than in 2015 and the most ever in an NFL season. There were 272 rushing scores from that close range, which accounted for 61.4 percent of the league’s rushing scores for the season, the highest over the past decade while the previous 9-year average was 55.8 percent. We had a major influx of short yardage opportunities and scores on those opportunities which were reliant on offenses setting up shop in a specific area of the field. That could be the beginning of a trend, but also very fragile in a vacuum if rolling over 2016 touchdown output into 2017 projections.
Now that we’ve established that red zone production can be misleading in a singular context to varying degrees, let’s look at how teams performed in that area in the 2016 season and begin to offer some team and player analysis.
2016 Team Red Zone Performance
Pat Yourself on the Goal Line Back
The last time that the New England Patriots finished outside of the top four teams in red zone volume was 2005. Although Tom Brady and the passing game get a lot of fantasy attention, what often goes overlooked when looking at the Patriots is how much scoring opportunity they consistently create for their running backs and how much they are willing to run near the paint. It’s one of the reasons that put us onto LeGarrette Blount heavily last season when he led the NFL with 18 rushing scores.
New England Rushing Opportunity from Inside the 5-Yard Line
| Year | RuAtt | Rank | RuTD | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 1 | 12 | 5 |
| 2015 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 2014 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| 2013 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| 2012 | 40 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| 2011 | 35 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| 2010 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 2009 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 2 |
| 2008 | 22 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| 2007 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
The Pats once again led the league in this category a year ago as Blount had a league-high 24 carries inside the 5-yard line, with 12 of his rushing touchdowns coming from that area. Blount has since left via free agency, but the Patriots brought in Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead to join James White and Dion Lewis. The Patriots’ backs are seemingly always shrouded in mystery, but the back that can most benefit from this offense in terms of stacking touchdown opportunities is Gillislee. He converted all six of his carries inside of the 5-yard line for scores a year ago, making that six out of seven for his career while White (1/4), Lewis (0/2) and Burkhead (0/3) have all combined to convert just one of nine such attempts for scores over their careers. All four players have small samples in the opportunity department, but when compartmentalizing this backfield in relation to short yardage opportunity, the best bet remains Gillislee.
Rodgers Printing Green in the Red Zone
We talked a bit about the Green Bay Packers’ game script and unique offensive circumstances given their personnel a year ago, and those splits rolled right over into the red zone. Aaron Rodgers set career highs in red zone pass attempts (105) and attempts inside the 10 (47). His 24 touchdown passes inside of the 10-yard line matched Tom Brady‘s 2007 season and were one behind Peyton Manning’s 2013 season, the two individual seasons with the most passing touchdowns in NFL history.
Aaron Rodgers’ Red Zone Career
| Year | RZ Att | RZ TD | In. 10 Att | In. 10 TD | In. 5 Att | In. 5 TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 105 | 31 | 47 | 24 | 21 | 12 |
| 2015 | 91 | 20 | 41 | 15 | 18 | 8 |
| 2014 | 96 | 24 | 47 | 17 | 23 | 12 |
| 2013 | 46 | 12 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| 2012 | 66 | 24 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 7 |
| 2011 | 84 | 29 | 43 | 22 | 20 | 11 |
| 2010 | 71 | 19 | 39 | 13 | 10 | 5 |
| 2009 | 87 | 17 | 35 | 11 | 12 | 4 |
| 2008 | 55 | 19 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 8 |
The Packers have consistently kept the ball in their best player’s hands near the end zone, as Rodgers is their de facto goal line back. Since Rodgers took over in 2008, the Packers have thrown 52.8 percent of the time inside of the 5-yard line, trailing only the Colts (53.6 percent) over that span while the league average passing rate has been 41.9 percent. Only Drew Brees (75) has more passing touchdowns inside of the five than Rodgers’ nice total of 69 over that span. Rodgers being so good with the ball in his hands has played a role in why most of his backs carry such capped touchdown output on the ground. Just four times over those nine seasons has an individual Green Bay running back had more than four rushing touchdowns in a season, and just three times have the Packers cleared 12 rushing touchdowns as a team. This threatens Ty Montgomery’s ceiling a bit now that he’s moving to a more touchdown-reliant position for fantasy purposes. Expecting a large opportunity for him in the scoring department solely based on offensive attachment isn’t as underlyingly pronounced as you’d assume.
Panthers Pounding the Ball
A team on the other end of the spectrum from Green Bay in play calling near the paint is the Carolina Panthers. Since Carolina drafted Cam Newton in 2011, they’ve run the ball 68.2 percent of the time inside of the 5-yard line, the second-highest rate in the league over that timeframe behind San Francisco (69.3 percent), and the Panthers’ 69 rushing touchdowns from that area of the field over that time trails only the Patriots (76).
Ron Rivera has already stated that they want to use Newton less as a runner moving forward while evolving as a passer and his rushing opportunity was scaled back in 2016 given his exposure to hits and being nicked up along the way. Newton posted career lows in rushing attempts (90) and rushing yards (359) and ran just 4.7 times per game over the final seven weeks for 98 yards total as he finished in the bottom half of quarterback scoring in five of those seven games. While Rivera and the staff may reduce Newton’s reliance on his legs overall, Newton’s strengths still lie in being an unstoppable force near the goal line. Newton has had five or more rushing touchdowns in all six years of his career, while no other quarterback has more than five such seasons (Otto Graham and Jack Kemp) for their careers. Since entering the league, Newton’s 32 rushing touchdowns are tied with Marshawn Lynch for rushing scores inside of the five, and Cam’s 68.1 percent touchdown rate on those carries leads all players with 20 or more opportunities.
Newton’s Rushing Opportunity from Inside of the 5-Yard Line
| Year | RuAtt | Team Att% | RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 6 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2015 | 10 | 38.5% | 8 |
| 2014 | 4 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 2 | 10.5% | 2 |
| 2012 | 11 | 47.8% | 6 |
| 2011 | 14 | 56.0% | 8 |
Newton’s opportunity for short rushing scores has moved around often over his career, but his potency for converting those scores hasn’t waned a bit. He’s still the best short yardage player in the league, but if Carolina wants to dampen his opportunity there, Jonathan Stewart is in line to take advantage, something he did a year ago.
Stewart’s Rushing Opportunity from Inside of the 5-Yard Line with Newton
| Year | RuAtt | Team Att% | RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16 | 66.7% | 9 |
| 2015 | 9 | 34.6% | 4 |
| 2014 | 5 | 31.3% | 2 |
| 2013 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2012 | 1 | 4.4% | 1 |
| 2011 | 9 | 36.0% | 3 |
Not to be lost in all of this is the addition of Christian McCaffrey, whom Carolina selected with eighth overall pick. The above two tables are what make it so hard to invest into McCaffrey’s lofty ADP -- especially in standard formats -- because he has major competition for touchdown potential from two other players. Stewart only has best ball appeal unless McCaffrey misses time, as the selection of McCaffrey pushes him into a Jeremy Hill-ish type of player, but Stewart is good enough to thwart the upside of McCaffrey for fantasy purposes if he blocks the road to touchdowns on the ground along with Newton.
Melvin Gordon and RB Red Zone Opportunities
Melvin Gordon is the poster boy for how much volume and scoring opportunity can trump low level efficiency marks. Gordon rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry for the second straight year, and 26.8 percent of his carries went for at least five yards, the third lowest rate in the league. After failing to score on any of his 217 touches as a rookie in 2015, Gordon scored 12 times in 2016 as he paced the position in red zone opportunity.
| Year | Tch | RZ TCH | In. 10 TCH | In.5 TCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 295 | 55 | 28 | 17 |
| 2015 | 217 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
After just 5.9 percent of his touches came from inside the red zone, Gordon had 18.6 percent of his touches in that area of the field in 2016. He had just one lone touch inside of the five as a rookie, but received 17 in his sophomore season. That type of usage near the goal line is a fantasy deodorant for any type of inefficiency, which was a contributing factor in separating someone like Gordon from highly efficient backs with less volume and inefficient ones with less scoring opportunity. Here’s a look at the rest of the running back position and their career outputs over the past 10 years and 2016 in a vacuum as it pertains to the percentage of their touches coming at each level of the red zone.
RB Red Zone Touch Rate for Career and 2016
| Player | RZTCH% | 2016 | In. 10TCH% | 2016 | In. 5TCH% | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 13.71% | 7.50% | 6.88% | 0.00% | 3.77% | 0.00% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7.89% | 13.04% | 1.32% | 0.00% | 1.32% | 0.00% |
| Bilal Powell | 12.61% | 14.81% | 4.39% | 4.76% | 2.41% | 1.59% |
| C.J. Anderson | 14.34% | 19.84% | 4.97% | 8.73% | 3.25% | 5.56% |
| C.J. Prosise | 17.02% | 17.02% | 10.64% | 10.64% | 4.26% | 4.26% |
| Carlos Hyde | 15.97% | 14.75% | 5.67% | 5.74% | 2.94% | 2.46% |
| Charles Sims | 9.43% | 8.00% | 2.20% | 4.00% | 1.57% | 4.00% |
| Chris Ivory | 13.51% | 9.49% | 7.27% | 8.03% | 4.47% | 5.11% |
| Chris Thompson | 9.52% | 8.55% | 4.33% | 4.27% | 1.73% | 1.71% |
| Christine Michael | 10.25% | 13.61% | 4.95% | 7.10% | 2.83% | 4.14% |
| Damien Williams | 19.89% | 27.59% | 6.08% | 13.79% | 4.42% | 12.07% |
| Danny Woodhead | 16.15% | 16.00% | 7.45% | 4.00% | 2.73% | 4.00% |
| Darren McFadden | 10.83% | 7.41% | 4.74% | 7.41% | 2.05% | 0.00% |
| Darren Sproles | 10.32% | 15.75% | 4.47% | 5.48% | 1.22% | 2.05% |
| David Johnson | 15.29% | 16.35% | 8.63% | 9.65% | 5.94% | 6.70% |
| DeAndre Washington | 3.81% | 3.85% | 2.86% | 2.88% | 1.90% | 1.92% |
| DeMarco Murray | 13.25% | 15.07% | 6.80% | 8.70% | 3.49% | 4.06% |
| Derrick Henry | 18.70% | 18.55% | 8.94% | 8.87% | 3.25% | 3.23% |
| Devonta Freeman | 17.51% | 22.06% | 8.54% | 11.03% | 4.06% | 5.69% |
| Devontae Booker | 13.66% | 13.66% | 5.37% | 5.37% | 2.44% | 2.44% |
| Dion Lewis | 14.64% | 16.05% | 6.69% | 9.88% | 1.26% | 1.23% |
| Doug Martin | 12.26% | 15.19% | 6.00% | 7.59% | 3.00% | 5.70% |
| Duke Johnson | 8.04% | 7.14% | 1.93% | 3.17% | 0.96% | 0.79% |
| Eddie Lacy | 14.29% | 13.33% | 6.75% | 8.00% | 4.05% | 4.00% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11.86% | 11.86% | 6.78% | 6.78% | 3.11% | 3.11% |
| Giovani Bernard | 14.27% | 13.85% | 6.10% | 4.62% | 2.46% | 1.54% |
| Isaiah Crowell | 13.02% | 13.87% | 6.68% | 7.98% | 2.84% | 3.78% |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 12.74% | 11.27% | 4.65% | 3.52% | 1.95% | 2.82% |
| Jamaal Charles | 10.79% | 35.71% | 5.52% | 28.57% | 2.28% | 21.43% |
| James White | 10.73% | 8.08% | 7.91% | 6.06% | 3.39% | 2.02% |
| Jay Ajayi | 13.08% | 11.89% | 6.10% | 5.24% | 2.62% | 2.45% |
| Jeremy Hill | 16.30% | 19.34% | 9.32% | 9.88% | 5.34% | 6.17% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 10.58% | 12.38% | 3.61% | 4.46% | 1.20% | 1.98% |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13.58% | 18.14% | 6.52% | 8.85% | 4.13% | 7.08% |
| Jordan Howard | 11.74% | 11.74% | 5.69% | 5.69% | 2.85% | 2.85% |
| Kenneth Dixon | 6.78% | 6.84% | 2.54% | 2.56% | 1.69% | 1.71% |
| Lamar Miller | 12.52% | 12.04% | 5.98% | 5.02% | 2.94% | 2.68% |
| Lance Dunbar | 6.99% | 16.00% | 1.61% | 8.00% | 0.54% | 4.00% |
| Latavius Murray | 13.02% | 17.98% | 8.27% | 11.40% | 4.13% | 7.02% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 16.10% | 22.30% | 8.50% | 13.77% | 4.77% | 7.87% |
| LeSean McCoy | 14.30% | 15.55% | 6.93% | 9.19% | 3.16% | 3.18% |
| Le’Veon Bell | 13.92% | 10.45% | 6.08% | 4.78% | 2.91% | 1.79% |
| Mark Ingram | 16.97% | 18.33% | 7.71% | 7.97% | 4.54% | 3.59% |
| Matt Asiata | 19.28% | 25.49% | 12.92% | 16.99% | 7.42% | 11.11% |
| Melvin Gordon | 13.28% | 18.64% | 6.25% | 9.49% | 3.52% | 5.76% |
| Mike Gillislee | 12.94% | 14.55% | 7.06% | 10.00% | 4.12% | 5.45% |
| Mike Tolbert | 20.81% | 20.00% | 12.32% | 11.11% | 8.85% | 4.44% |
| Paul Perkins | 7.09% | 7.09% | 1.57% | 1.57% | 0.79% | 0.79% |
| Rex Burkhead | 13.39% | 14.29% | 6.30% | 7.69% | 2.36% | 3.30% |
| Robert Kelley | 18.89% | 18.89% | 8.33% | 8.33% | 4.44% | 4.44% |
| Robert Turbin | 12.14% | 27.40% | 6.80% | 21.92% | 1.94% | 8.22% |
| Ryan Mathews | 10.86% | 22.62% | 5.28% | 16.07% | 2.71% | 10.12% |
| Shane Vereen | 14.85% | 20.45% | 9.11% | 11.36% | 5.15% | 6.82% |
| Spencer Ware | 13.37% | 11.74% | 8.81% | 8.10% | 5.47% | 4.45% |
| T.J. Yeldon | 10.30% | 8.89% | 3.27% | 1.67% | 1.51% | 0.56% |
| Terrance West | 14.74% | 15.11% | 5.89% | 4.44% | 3.58% | 3.56% |
| Tevin Coleman | 18.07% | 19.46% | 9.24% | 10.07% | 3.78% | 2.68% |
| Theo Riddick | 13.39% | 12.41% | 5.95% | 6.21% | 1.79% | 2.76% |
| Thomas Rawls | 12.59% | 15.57% | 6.12% | 6.56% | 2.52% | 2.46% |
| Todd Gurley | 12.08% | 12.15% | 5.95% | 5.92% | 3.33% | 3.12% |
| Ty Montgomery | 12.80% | 14.05% | 4.88% | 5.79% | 3.66% | 4.96% |
| Zach Zenner | 12.00% | 13.21% | 6.40% | 7.55% | 3.20% | 3.77% |
There are few things to take away from the above table which I wish I could’ve put into a sortable for you to use on the site, but unfortunately for now with the capabilities of our CMS, you’ll have to copy and paste it over to a spreadsheet to play around with.
Johnson or Bell?
Keep in mind when looking above that this is also a rate stat, and consider overall volume in relation to each of the players involved, but if you’re looking to split hairs at 1.01 between David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, here’s your main hammer for selecting Johnson. Johnson rates above average across the board in the table above and has scored 12 and 20 touchdowns over the first two years of his career. Those 32 offensive scores for Johnson are already more than Bell has over his total four-year career (31) in 15 fewer games played, while Johnson has out-touched Bell a jarring 33 to 9 inside of the 5-yard line over his first two NFL seasons.
Circling Low Hanging Touchdowns
Spiderman Homecoming has been a hot movie the past few weeks and features Michael Keaton playing Adrian Toomes, better known as the Vulture in Spidey lore. Here, we can see where the fantasy vultures lie on specific teams who give these players more opportunities in the red zone than they give them outside of it. Beyond a small sample from Jamaal Charles, Damien Williams led all backs above in 2016 percentage of touches to come from inside of the 5-yard line at 12.1 percent. Just 2.5 percent of Jay Ajayi’s touches came from that area of the field, which ranked 45th in terms of rates. Jonathan Stewart (7.1 percent), Robert Turbin (8.2 percent), Latavius Murray (7.0 percent) and Jeremy Hill (6.2 percent) are all backs well above the average rate for the 2016 season for usage inside of the 5-yard line in relation to overall opportunity that have potential to be touchdown vultures in the upcoming season, capping the upside of some of our favorite fantasy backs. Even Mike Tolbert and Matt Asiata are free agents who moved on with strong career averages of touchdown-stealing opportunities that may come into play.
If the Philadelphia Eagles can roll over their short yardage opportunity from 2016 into this season, then the LeGarrette Blount signing has potential to be as comfortable of a spot as you could hope for a back leaving the luxurious scoring position the Patriots provide. Blount ranks 7th on the above table in career percentage of touches to come from inside of the five, while Ryan Mathews held above-career-average marks across the board in red zone rate of touches at each level. There’s not a stable year over year sample to latch onto with Philadelphia, but they ranked fourth in rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line (25) in 2016. 18 touchdowns are out of the question for Blount in 2017, but 8-10 may still be within his grasp.
It remains to be seen if Spencer Ware will hold off Kareem Hunt and be the feature back for the Kansas City Chiefs, but there’s evidence to support that he will still get the short yardage opportunities at minimum. Ware has a smaller sample given his two seasons of use, but he ranks highly in rate of touches inside of the 10- and 5-yard lines despite both dropping in 2016. Like Latavius Murray, Jonathan Stewart and Jeremy Hill, Ware has potential to cap the ceiling of a rookie oozing with upside that we’re dying to sink our teeth into.
Losing is A Problem and the Bottom of the Barrel
I’ve long been a proponent for looking toward backs attached to good teams, and when you see the red zone usage rates for players such as Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard and Isaiah Crowell, you can easily spot how their fantasy upside has been limited due their team attachment. You can even potentially go a step further with that group and look at the opportunity for T.J. Yeldon over two years in expressing some caution for the scoring potential of Leonard Fournette, but Chris Ivory had a pulse there. Bad teams don’t score points and therefore don’t present the opportunity to score points, something that is a major problem for elevating backs in fantasy. Howard overcame his low touchdown output and situation a year ago, but there’s still reason to express concern with him rolling that over in his second season if the Bears are going to struggle heavily again as a team.
When looking at players at the bottom of the table who lose usage the closer their teams get to the goal line, there aren’t many surprises as many of the players that aren’t on poor teams are receiving backs firsthand, but there are a few guys here that have potential to become what I refer to as “purgatory players”. Players such as Ameer Abdullah, Paul Perkins and Kenneth Dixon are aesthetically exciting to watch play football and draw us in with underlying efficiency metrics, but when it comes to getting scoring touches while competing with specialty backs in the passing game, their fantasy upside is flimsy. Especially when you circle back to team plays and opportunity in the red zone and their play calling in that area. It’s not out of the question that all three of those backs could see their short yardage opportunity increase as none of their backfield mates are overly daunting to overcome from a talent perspective, but there’s also a downside that they each receive a smattering of hollow touches while losing out on the fantasy touches we desire through the passing game and scoring touchdowns.
Julio Jones and WR Red Zone Opportunity
On the first page with the team breakdowns, you can see that the 2016 Atlanta Falcons ran the second most red zone plays in the league, and in our post on scoring and drives, we highlighted how historic of a season they had in the scoring department altogether. That historical scoring season and lofty team volume near the goal line were what made it somewhat frustrating that Julio Jones scored just six touchdowns. Jones’ red zone usage – or lack thereof -- has been a long running topic for fantasy, but in a historic season for the Falcons, Jones was an afterthought when it came to scoring chances. This has led new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to come out early and say he wants to maximize Jones in that area of the field coming off a year in which Julio saw career-low red zone opportunity in relation to his team’s overall scoring-position volume.
Julio Jones’ Career Red Zone Usage
| Year | TGT | RZ TGT | RZTGT% | TM TGT% | In. 10 TGT | In. 5 TGT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 95 | 8 | 8.42% | 10.13% | 1 | 0 |
| 2012 | 128 | 20 | 15.63% | 22.99% | 10 | 6 |
| 2013 | 59 | 9 | 15.25% | 9.68% | 7 | 1 |
| 2014 | 163 | 11 | 6.75% | 18.33% | 4 | 1 |
| 2015 | 203 | 21 | 10.34% | 28.77% | 11 | 5 |
| 2016 | 129 | 9 | 6.98% | 9.57% | 6 | 5 |
It’s a testament to how good Jones is that he’s able to remain a year in and year out stud despite having just one double-digit scoring season under his belt in six years. Not many players could lose 74 targets, 53 receptions and 462 yards off their prior season totals and only score six total touchdowns and still finish as a top-5 scoring receiver per game. But that’s exactly what Jones did last season, catching 83 passes for 1,409 yards on 129 targets. Jones averaged 100.6 yards per game, the fourth consecutive season in which he’s averaged triple digit receiving yards per contest, an NFL record. No other player in NFL history has even averaged 100 yards receiving per game in four years of their career, let alone four in a row. Of course, Jones was aided by a 300-yard performance in Week 4, but he still tallied seven 100-yard games on the season, which was tied for the league lead.
As we did with Melvin Gordon and the running backs, here is the red zone usage for all receivers over the past decade along with their usage in 2016 for comparison sake.
WR Red Zone Target Rate for Career and 2016
| Player | RZTGT% | 2016 | In. 10TGT% | 2016 | In. 5 TGT% | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 11.91% | 9.00% | 5.96% | 4.00% | 1.99% | 1.00% |
| Adam Humphries | 11.38% | 12.05% | 3.25% | 2.41% | 0.81% | 1.20% |
| Adam Thielen | 8.94% | 10.87% | 4.07% | 5.43% | 1.63% | 2.17% |
| Allen Hurns | 11.87% | 15.79% | 4.68% | 3.95% | 2.16% | 1.32% |
| Allen Robinson | 12.01% | 12.67% | 6.53% | 6.67% | 3.39% | 4.00% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 13.42% | 12.77% | 6.43% | 4.26% | 2.08% | 1.06% |
| Amari Cooper | 7.63% | 9.92% | 2.67% | 5.34% | 1.91% | 3.82% |
| Andrew Hawkins | 11.44% | 20.37% | 3.81% | 7.41% | 1.17% | 3.70% |
| Anquan Boldin | 12.58% | 23.40% | 5.68% | 9.57% | 2.79% | 9.57% |
| Antonio Brown | 11.76% | 9.74% | 5.19% | 4.55% | 2.33% | 2.60% |
| Brandin Cooks | 7.94% | 9.40% | 3.17% | 5.13% | 1.90% | 1.71% |
| Brandon LaFell | 12.12% | 15.89% | 5.22% | 7.48% | 1.35% | 0.93% |
| Brandon Marshall | 13.25% | 16.28% | 5.66% | 5.43% | 2.64% | 3.10% |
| Breshad Perriman | 6.06% | 6.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Cameron Meredith | 12.39% | 12.37% | 4.42% | 4.12% | 0.88% | 1.03% |
| Cecil Shorts | 11.06% | 7.41% | 5.31% | 3.70% | 2.21% | 0.00% |
| Chris Conley | 17.00% | 18.84% | 5.00% | 5.80% | 1.00% | 1.45% |
| Chris Hogan | 12.31% | 17.24% | 5.13% | 8.62% | 3.08% | 5.17% |
| Cole Beasley | 14.33% | 8.16% | 5.67% | 4.08% | 2.00% | 3.06% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10.65% | 11.43% | 3.70% | 4.29% | 1.85% | 1.43% |
| Danny Amendola | 13.30% | 24.14% | 6.18% | 6.90% | 2.81% | 0.00% |
| Davante Adams | 14.95% | 16.53% | 6.41% | 8.26% | 2.49% | 4.13% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.63% | 5.96% | 3.39% | 3.97% | 1.78% | 2.65% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 14.46% | 12.41% | 6.23% | 7.59% | 3.34% | 4.14% |
| DeSean Jackson | 9.18% | 11.00% | 3.58% | 4.00% | 0.90% | 2.00% |
| DeVante Parker | 11.68% | 9.09% | 7.30% | 4.55% | 1.46% | 0.00% |
| Devin Funchess | 19.83% | 22.41% | 5.79% | 3.45% | 1.65% | 0.00% |
| Dez Bryant | 12.10% | 12.50% | 7.08% | 7.29% | 3.60% | 2.08% |
| Donte Moncrief | 11.90% | 17.86% | 5.71% | 10.71% | 2.86% | 7.14% |
| Dontrelle Inman | 7.34% | 7.22% | 3.39% | 2.06% | 2.26% | 1.03% |
| Doug Baldwin | 11.26% | 12.10% | 4.32% | 5.65% | 2.06% | 2.42% |
| Eli Rogers | 9.09% | 9.09% | 4.55% | 4.55% | 3.03% | 3.03% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11.51% | 13.14% | 5.61% | 8.03% | 2.01% | 2.19% |
| Eric Decker | 16.51% | 19.05% | 8.73% | 14.29% | 4.13% | 4.76% |
| Golden Tate | 12.67% | 12.59% | 5.22% | 3.70% | 1.19% | 0.74% |
| Jamison Crowder | 15.25% | 16.16% | 7.91% | 7.07% | 5.65% | 5.05% |
| Jarvis Landry | 10.76% | 6.87% | 4.89% | 1.53% | 2.20% | 0.00% |
| Jeremy Kerley | 9.77% | 6.09% | 3.26% | 0.87% | 0.23% | 0.00% |
| Jeremy Maclin | 10.95% | 11.84% | 3.52% | 1.32% | 1.17% | 0.00% |
| Jermaine Kearse | 15.13% | 15.73% | 7.01% | 7.87% | 1.48% | 3.37% |
| J.J. Nelson | 9.90% | 13.51% | 2.97% | 4.05% | 0.99% | 1.35% |
| John Brown | 10.14% | 8.22% | 3.26% | 4.11% | 1.09% | 1.37% |
| Jordan Matthews | 11.85% | 10.34% | 3.47% | 3.45% | 1.45% | 1.72% |
| Jordy Nelson | 15.91% | 19.08% | 8.42% | 9.87% | 3.21% | 4.61% |
| Julian Edelman | 13.73% | 9.43% | 5.77% | 5.66% | 2.03% | 2.52% |
| Julio Jones | 10.04% | 6.98% | 5.02% | 4.65% | 2.32% | 3.88% |
| Kamar Aiken | 8.61% | 8.00% | 4.78% | 4.00% | 1.91% | 0.00% |
| Keenan Allen | 11.49% | 0.00% | 3.73% | 0.00% | 1.86% | 0.00% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 11.41% | 12.82% | 4.56% | 4.27% | 1.90% | 1.71% |
| Kendall Wright | 8.45% | 6.98% | 4.11% | 4.65% | 1.14% | 2.33% |
| Kenny Britt | 10.42% | 9.91% | 4.95% | 6.31% | 1.94% | 2.70% |
| Kenny Stills | 6.14% | 7.41% | 1.81% | 1.23% | 0.36% | 0.00% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 13.49% | 13.33% | 6.51% | 8.00% | 3.02% | 5.33% |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 25.00% | 25.00% | 8.33% | 8.33% | 4.17% | 4.17% |
| Markus Wheaton | 13.90% | 22.22% | 3.74% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Marqise Lee | 9.22% | 7.62% | 3.40% | 1.90% | 1.94% | 0.95% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 5.41% | 5.88% | 2.70% | 1.47% | 1.80% | 0.00% |
| Marvin Jones | 14.15% | 14.56% | 5.35% | 6.80% | 2.20% | 4.85% |
| Michael Crabtree | 9.87% | 14.48% | 3.95% | 5.52% | 1.51% | 2.07% |
| Michael Thomas | 15.70% | 15.70% | 9.09% | 9.09% | 4.96% | 4.96% |
| Mike Evans | 9.93% | 9.77% | 4.29% | 4.02% | 2.03% | 2.87% |
| Mike Wallace | 10.51% | 7.76% | 3.78% | 3.45% | 1.18% | 0.00% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 16.06% | 16.05% | 5.15% | 6.17% | 1.82% | 1.23% |
| Nelson Agholor | 17.70% | 20.59% | 2.65% | 2.94% | 0.88% | 0.00% |
| Odell Beckham | 14.00% | 12.35% | 5.47% | 5.29% | 2.63% | 4.12% |
| Paul Richardson | 9.88% | 11.11% | 4.94% | 8.33% | 1.23% | 0.00% |
| Phillip Dorsett | 8.16% | 11.86% | 2.04% | 3.39% | 2.04% | 3.39% |
| Pierre Garcon | 11.85% | 11.40% | 5.28% | 5.26% | 2.37% | 2.63% |
| Quincy Enunwa | 10.60% | 14.29% | 5.96% | 8.57% | 1.99% | 2.86% |
| Randall Cobb | 14.94% | 15.48% | 7.28% | 8.33% | 2.68% | 2.38% |
| Rishard Matthews | 8.99% | 13.89% | 3.96% | 5.56% | 2.16% | 3.70% |
| Robby Anderson | 5.13% | 5.13% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Robert Woods | 9.57% | 10.53% | 3.48% | 2.63% | 1.16% | 1.32% |
| Sammy Watkins | 7.25% | 7.69% | 2.90% | 1.92% | 1.09% | 0.00% |
| Seth Roberts | 21.97% | 25.97% | 6.06% | 10.39% | 3.03% | 5.19% |
| Stefon Diggs | 9.18% | 10.71% | 2.04% | 2.68% | 1.02% | 1.79% |
| Sterling Shepard | 11.43% | 11.43% | 5.71% | 5.71% | 1.90% | 1.90% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 9.40% | 8.39% | 3.54% | 3.23% | 1.69% | 3.23% |
| Tavon Austin | 9.15% | 8.49% | 2.94% | 0.94% | 0.65% | 0.00% |
| Taylor Gabriel | 11.76% | 12.00% | 3.53% | 4.00% | 1.18% | 0.00% |
| Ted Ginn | 5.69% | 1.05% | 2.17% | 0.00% | 1.17% | 0.00% |
| Terrance Williams | 11.90% | 6.56% | 5.78% | 3.28% | 1.70% | 1.64% |
| Terrelle Pryor | 10.74% | 9.29% | 2.68% | 2.86% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Torrey Smith | 10.83% | 10.20% | 3.49% | 6.12% | 0.55% | 2.04% |
| Travis Benjamin | 9.46% | 9.46% | 2.70% | 1.35% | 1.01% | 0.00% |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.11% | 11.11% | 2.47% | 2.47% | 2.47% | 2.47% |
| Tyler Lockett | 5.19% | 7.58% | 1.48% | 1.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Tyreek Hill | 15.66% | 15.66% | 8.43% | 8.43% | 2.41% | 2.41% |
| Tyrell Williams | 12.90% | 13.45% | 6.45% | 6.72% | 3.23% | 3.36% |
| Victor Cruz | 9.63% | 8.33% | 3.93% | 2.78% | 1.57% | 2.78% |
| Will Fuller | 9.78% | 9.78% | 5.43% | 5.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Willie Snead | 9.76% | 11.54% | 4.39% | 5.77% | 2.44% | 2.88% |
Again, I apologize for not being able to convert this into a sortable and searchable table, but tried to make it as easy as possible to find specific players and to copy and paste into a document. Also, once again consider overall player volume, but as with running backs, there are some large samples to work with here.
Tennessee TD Machine
It’s hard to think of a better marriage for a red zone connection than the newfound opportunity of Eric Decker pairing up with Marcus Mariota. Decker has dominated opportunities in the red zone, ranking first overall in career red zone usage rate, inside of the 10-yard line rate and inside of the 5-yard-line rate for all receivers with over three years of a sample size in the table above. Decker now joins a Tennessee Titans team that just converted 72 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the third highest rate for a team over the past 14 years. Since entering the league two years ago, Mariota has turned 35.1 percent of his red zone pass attempts into touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
Red Zone Touchdown Rate Over the Past Two Years
| Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | TD | RZTDR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 60 | 94 | 63.8% | 33 | 35.11% |
| Tom Brady | 96 | 145 | 66.2% | 47 | 32.41% |
| Andrew Luck | 67 | 102 | 65.7% | 31 | 30.39% |
| Dak Prescott | 29 | 49 | 59.2% | 14 | 28.57% |
| Matthew Stafford | 99 | 155 | 63.9% | 43 | 27.74% |
| Carson Palmer | 85 | 159 | 53.5% | 44 | 27.67% |
| Cam Newton | 65 | 127 | 51.2% | 35 | 27.56% |
| Blake Bortles | 87 | 159 | 54.7% | 43 | 27.04% |
| Drew Brees | 118 | 175 | 67.4% | 47 | 26.86% |
| Brian Hoyer | 38 | 72 | 52.8% | 19 | 26.39% |
| Philip Rivers | 88 | 167 | 52.7% | 44 | 26.35% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 109 | 196 | 55.6% | 51 | 26.02% |
Decker has made a career out of out-kicking his required draft capital, but this will be his stiffest test yet. Decker is turning 30 years old off two major surgeries while playing on a Titans team that ranked 31st in the league in percentage of plays with three or more wide receivers on the field (61.7 percent) in 2016 and 29th in total amount of passing plays overall. If Decker can beat his draft cost again, it will be by continuing to draw a high portion of his opportunity near the end zone and synching up the scoring efficiency he and Mariota have displayed through their careers. Decker has scored on over 12 percent of his receptions in every year of his seven-season career except for one.
Those Who Need the Red Zone without Opportunity
| Player | TD | RZTD | RZTD% | RZ TGT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 9 | 8 | 88.9% | 8.61% |
| Willie Snead | 7 | 6 | 85.7% | 9.76% |
| Jeremy Kerley | 12 | 10 | 83.3% | 9.77% |
| Kendall Wright | 18 | 13 | 72.2% | 8.45% |
| Robert Woods | 12 | 8 | 66.7% | 9.57% |
| Rishard Matthews | 17 | 11 | 64.7% | 8.99% |
| Tavon Austin | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 9.15% |
| Dontrelle Inman | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 7.34% |
| Mike Evans | 27 | 15 | 55.6% | 9.93% |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 8.94% |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 16 | 8 | 50.0% | 9.37% |
| J.J. Nelson | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 9.90% |
Here’s the group of receivers who have scored at least half of their touchdowns in the red zone, but have had fewer than 10 percent of their targets come from that area of the field.
At first, I was ready to completely dismiss Mike Evans’ soft rate based on the sheer number of total targets he’s had, but his red zone usage isn’t anything amazing underneath the hood. Since entering the league, Evans ranks tied for 18th in red zone targets (44), tied for 20th in targets inside of the 10-yard line (19) and tied for 22nd in targets inside of the 5-yard line (nine). Perhaps it’s another underlying mark to express caution on his ADP to go along with a potential volume loss, but it’s still hard to move a chunk of receivers ahead of him.
Willie Snead is an interesting name from the group above because he’s gaining popularity as a target for many at his current cost, but Snead is also the rare Drew Brees target that hasn’t held scoring upside. He has scored just seven touchdowns over the past two years and has scored them in just five different games over his 30 appearances. Snead is a cheaper path to latching onto Brees than the expensive Michael Thomas and a hedge on Thomas underperforming as the feature receiver for defenses to concern themselves with, but Snead has still had pedestrian opportunity to score so far.
Rishard Matthews had a major spike in usage in his first year playing with Mariota, scoring seven of nine touchdowns last year from the red zone with four of those coming from five yards and in, but that’s now in jeopardy with Decker entering the fold. Any potential scoring decline is a big deal for Matthews as he only averaged 4.1 receptions per game, which ranked 28th among the top-30 scoring wide receivers in 2016.
Not Reliant on the Red Zone
When looking at receivers near the bottom of red zone opportunities, it’s filled with many over the top, vertical lid lifting archetype players. Here are the players from above that have scored at least half of their receiving touchdowns from outside of the red zone while fewer than 10 percent of their targets came from inside of the red zone.
| Player | TD | Out. RZ TD | Out. RZTD% | RZ TGT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 20 | 17 | 85.00% | 6.14% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 6 | 5 | 83.33% | 5.41% |
| Amari Cooper | 11 | 9 | 81.82% | 7.63% |
| DeSean Jackson | 46 | 36 | 78.26% | 9.18% |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | 5.19% |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | 9.18% |
| Sammy Watkins | 17 | 12 | 70.59% | 7.25% |
| Brandin Cooks | 20 | 14 | 70.00% | 7.94% |
| Ted Ginn | 25 | 17 | 68.00% | 5.69% |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 3 | 100.00% | 6.06% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 30 | 19 | 63.33% | 9.40% |
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 3 | 60.00% | 9.22% |
| Victor Cruz | 25 | 15 | 60.00% | 9.63% |
| Travis Benjamin | 14 | 8 | 57.14% | 9.46% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 23 | 13 | 56.52% | 9.63% |
| Michael Crabtree | 43 | 23 | 53.49% | 9.87% |
This combined with the initial table are why it’s hard to push T.Y. Hilton higher into the tier of truly elite receivers despite how consistent he’s been playing alongside Andrew Luck. Hilton has never scored more than seven times in a season and just 11 of his 30 career touchdowns have come from inside of the red zone, while he has never reached 20 percent of the Indianapolis targets in the red zone in any year of his career.
A player considered a peer of Hilton’s is Amari Cooper. Cooper’s red zone use has been talked about extensively, and when you look at Seth Roberts’ use in that area of the field compared to when the Raiders use Roberts elsewhere, it’s truly perplexing that Oakland hasn’t created more scoring opportunities for Cooper. Through two years, he’s been out-targeted in the red zone (20 targets) by both Michael Crabtree (34) and Roberts (29) with just two red zone touchdowns, as Cooper has averaged 37.1 yards per touchdown reception since entering the league.
Crabtree also finds himself here, which is somewhat surprising. While Crabtree’s red zone usage has spiked since joining Oakland, he’s also had more splash play ability than assumed, with nine of his 17 touchdown receptions with the Raiders coming outside of the red zone, the same amount as Cooper.
Another player held in a similar breath as Hilton and Cooper is Sammy Watkins. Cooper’s lack of red zone usage is often talked about, but Watkins is below Cooper in terms of red zone target rate (7.3 percent) and has just four total targets inside of the 10-yard line for his career. He’s flashed a major ceiling at times, but Watkins comes with health risks and has been a volatile producer as he’s been a top-24 scorer in just 15 of 37 career games because he’s lacked true scoring opportunities to salvage those floor games.
Brandin Cooks is intriguing because he’s leaving one elite scoring offense for another, but the Saints have run 35 more pass plays than the Patriots in the red zone since Cooks entered the league, so expecting him to get a bump in that area of the field isn’t something to hang your hat on. Cooks’ average length of touchdown reception is 37.6 yards and he has scored just six times in the red zone over the first three years of his career -- the same amount as Travis Benjamin -- with just four of Cooks’ 20 touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line.
I’ve covered DeAndre Hopkins already early in the offseason, and although you can assume his offensive situation can’t get worse than last season, you don’t want to be counting heavily on a rookie quarterback to increase scoring opportunities for an entire offense, let alone an individual player.
Oldies but Goodies
Of course, the career rates for Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall look good since they have some of the largest samples in the field, but when you compare their career output to their 2016 rates, it’s a beacon of value for each as it relates to initial 2017 ADP.
Fitzgerald ranked second in the league with 12 targets inside of the 10-yard line in 2016 after ranking 5th in the league with 12 in 2015. There are concerns about the 34-year-old Fitzgerald putting together a full season for fantasy purposes, but for a player currently going off the board at WR27, he still holds 140-target upside with the potential to push toward double-digit touchdown receptions.
Marshall followed up the highest scoring fantasy season of his career in 2015 with his lowest scoring fantasy season since his rookie season, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. His red zone target rate and targets inside of the 5-yard line were above his career marks in those areas of the field in 2016. While Marshall assuredly deserves some blame for his decline in output, catchable targets were a major thorn. Just 54.5 percent of Marshall’s targets on the season were catchable, which ranked 87th among 89 wide receivers with 50 or more targets per Pro Football Focus.
Marshall is now 33 years old and finds himself on the Giants, a team I believe will score more this season. Marshall still carries a lot of risk being the clear number two option behind Odell Beckham and the Giants potentially being unable to recoil to their 2014 and 2015 scoring totals. Marshall’s ADP is only one spot behind Fitzgerald, who has a clearer path to volume and higher scoring probability.
Hunter Henry and Tight End Red Zone Usage
Not many tight ends score from outside of the red zone, so getting usage in that area is pivotal for the position since it garners such lower overall volume than running backs and receivers. Hunter Henry was just the fourth tight end in league history to score at least eight touchdowns as a rookie and the first since Rob Gronkowski in 2010. 16 of Henry’s 53 targets came from inside the red zone with seven of those coming from inside the 10-yard line. Using Henry as the jumping off point, here is a look at tight end opportunity at each level of the red zone.
TE Red Zone Target Rate for Career and 2016
| Player | RZ TGT% | 2016 | In. 10TGT% | 2016 | In. 5 TGT% | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gates | 16.28% | 19.35% | 8.03% | 7.53% | 3.91% | 5.38% |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 15.46% | 10.53% | 10.31% | 5.26% | 4.12% | 0.00% |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 13.33% | 13.48% | 9.17% | 7.87% | 3.33% | 3.37% |
| Cameron Brate | 18.75% | 19.75% | 8.93% | 8.64% | 2.68% | 3.70% |
| Charles Clay | 13.73% | 14.94% | 6.86% | 2.30% | 2.45% | 1.15% |
| Clive Walford | 15.69% | 17.31% | 6.86% | 11.54% | 2.94% | 3.85% |
| Coby Fleener | 15.56% | 19.51% | 5.61% | 6.10% | 3.32% | 3.66% |
| Delanie Walker | 13.81% | 15.69% | 5.97% | 4.90% | 1.88% | 1.96% |
| Dion Sims | 14.15% | 20.00% | 9.43% | 14.29% | 7.55% | 8.57% |
| Dwayne Allen | 14.57% | 17.31% | 9.05% | 9.62% | 5.03% | 3.85% |
| Eric Ebron | 9.41% | 7.06% | 4.95% | 3.53% | 0.99% | 0.00% |
| Gary Barnidge | 12.89% | 6.17% | 6.27% | 2.47% | 3.48% | 2.47% |
| Greg Olsen | 15.31% | 12.40% | 6.96% | 3.88% | 2.98% | 2.33% |
| Hunter Henry | 30.19% | 30.19% | 13.21% | 13.21% | 3.77% | 3.77% |
| Jack Doyle | 22.03% | 16.00% | 11.02% | 6.67% | 6.78% | 2.67% |
| Jared Cook | 11.26% | 17.65% | 4.20% | 3.92% | 1.91% | 0.00% |
| Jason Witten | 10.27% | 16.84% | 3.82% | 3.16% | 2.29% | 1.05% |
| Jermaine Gresham | 12.97% | 11.48% | 5.70% | 4.92% | 2.75% | 3.28% |
| Jesse James | 18.31% | 20.00% | 11.27% | 11.67% | 2.82% | 1.67% |
| Jimmy Graham | 15.97% | 17.89% | 7.20% | 2.11% | 3.66% | 2.11% |
| Jordan Reed | 15.29% | 13.48% | 8.26% | 8.99% | 3.06% | 2.25% |
| Josh Hill | 23.17% | 13.64% | 14.63% | 9.09% | 7.32% | 0.00% |
| Julius Thomas | 17.24% | 13.73% | 7.93% | 3.92% | 3.79% | 0.00% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 14.63% | 18.05% | 7.43% | 7.52% | 5.04% | 6.02% |
| Lance Kendricks | 10.64% | 6.90% | 6.38% | 4.60% | 3.04% | 2.30% |
| Marcedes Lewis | 14.33% | 13.33% | 7.85% | 10.00% | 5.29% | 6.67% |
| Martellus Bennett | 14.65% | 13.70% | 5.89% | 6.85% | 2.53% | 2.74% |
| Mychal Rivera | 10.43% | 16.00% | 3.91% | 8.00% | 2.17% | 4.00% |
| Rob Gronkowski | 17.18% | 13.16% | 8.91% | 10.53% | 4.05% | 5.26% |
| Ryan Griffin | 7.89% | 8.11% | 3.95% | 4.05% | 1.32% | 1.35% |
| Travis Kelce | 12.05% | 13.68% | 4.23% | 5.98% | 1.95% | 2.56% |
| Tyler Eifert | 16.85% | 19.15% | 9.78% | 12.77% | 4.89% | 6.38% |
| Vance McDonald | 12.71% | 13.33% | 4.24% | 2.22% | 1.69% | 0.00% |
| Vernon Davis | 11.02% | 10.17% | 5.91% | 5.08% | 2.10% | 1.69% |
| Zach Ertz | 11.26% | 13.21% | 4.67% | 4.72% | 1.92% | 2.83% |
Opportunity Hogs
Despite missing 11-of-32 games, no tight end has caught more touchdown passes than Tyler Eifert‘s 18 over the past two years. Eifert checks in near the top of every category above, and while he may have limited upside overall in terms of actual opportunity, he makes up for it with opportunity near the goal line. Eifert hasn’t been a high-volume guy, receiving more than six targets in just eight career games, but he’s scored at least one touchdown in 12 different games over the past two years, tied with Rob Gronkowski and Kyle Rudolph for most at the position over that span.
Speaking of Rudolph, he paced the position with 24 targets inside of the red zone and 10 targets inside of the 10-yard line in 2016 as both marks ranked second in the entire NFL. Rudolph was perhaps the best tight end of the season in terms of wire to wire performance, posting at least 50-yards receiving in 10 games, which tied Greg Olsen for most at the position. Rudolph had 12 games with double-digit PPR points, which was the most at the position.
Where’s the Opportunity?
It’s not surprising to see Eric Ebron, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce at the bottom of the main table and each subset here. Even though Kelce and Ertz improved on their career rates in 2016, each of these players has held lowly touchdown output to start their careers. Despite being the TE1 overall a year ago in fantasy scoring, Kelce still has never scored more than five touchdowns in a season or even had opportunities to score on the level as other players at the position. Kelce has totaled just 37 red zone targets over the past three years with just 13 targets inside of the 10-yard line and just six inside the 5-yard line. For perspective, Cole Beasley has matched Kelce’s opportunity inside the 10 and Kyle Juszczyk has more targets inside the five. It could be a testament to how good Kelce is in the ilk of Julio Jones that he’s able to overcome such lowly touchdown output, but Kelce also has potential to be one of this year’s most over-drafted players if he’s unable to roll over his lofty yardage output and the position itself has an expected bounce back, which we’ll explore in the coming weeks.
Ertz has scored just 13 touchdowns in four seasons with no more than four in any year. Just 1.9 percent of Ertz’s career targets have come from inside of the 5-yard line with just 17 targets total from inside of the 10-yard line in four years. Owners seem to have fatigue with chasing Ertz’s perceived ascension as he’s only checking in at TE11 in ADP to start the summer.
Ebron scored just one touchdown receving in 2016, giving him seven now through three NFL seasons. The Lions haven’t helped his cause as Ebron has just 19 red zone targets (8.3 percent of the team total) with 10 targets inside of the 10-yard line (9.9 percent) and just two targets inside of the 5-yard line to start his career. Anquan Boldin was basically the Lions’ tight end in 2016 and 9.6 percent of Boldin’s targets came inside of the five as he led the league in targets from close range, so there’s opportunity for Ebron to grow into a scoring role entering 2017. I’m still only targeting Ebron in PPR leagues, however, as his scoring woes have extended back into his collegiate career as he has 15 total receiving touchdowns in 74 games played since high school.
2017 Recoil?
Greg Olsen has never been a touchdown machine. He’s hit pay dirt more than six times in a season just twice in 10 years, but he scored just three times in 2016 and on just 3.8 of his receptions after scoring at a career rate of 9.1 percent entering last year. Playing a role in that decline is that Olsen’s rate of targets declined at every level of the red zone in 2016 with the biggest drop off coming inside of the 10-yard line, where he caught just 2-of-5 targets for one touchdown. While Olsen is no threat to push double-digit touchdowns, his ADP is in an exploitable gap to that of Travis Kelce, as both are similar fantasy producers.
Jimmy Graham received a higher rate of 2016 targets inside the red zone than his career norm, but his targets inside of the 10-yard line cratered. Graham had just two targets inside of the 10, five fewer than Jermaine Kearse and one fewer than Paul Richardson. That rate of targets from inside of the 10-yard line was dead last in the group above, something we should expect to correct itself, but there may be more to the scheme and defensive attention he receives in that area of the field since Graham also had just three targets inside of the 10-yard line over 11 games in 2015. Given Graham’s performance coming back from a torn patellar tendon -- 65 receptions for 923 yards and six scores -- he averaged his highest yards per reception (14.2) for his career while catching 68.4 percent of his targets, his highest rate since Graham’s rookie season - in a year where Russell Wilson was subpar for a bulk of the season, I’m still counting Graham’s 2016 season as an overall positive.
Gronk’s abbreviated sample may have something to do with his dip in target rate in the red zone overall, but his rates were up inside of the 10- and 5-yard lines. His role in the offense also likely played from further out as he received more vertical opportunities than before for his career. With New England bringing in another capable tight end in Martellus Bennett, Gronkowski was used more in the vertical passing game and the results were tremendous. Gronk averaged a career-high 21.6 yards per reception and his average depth of target was 15.6 yards after averaging 10.3 yards for his career prior. The Patriots’ offensive personnel is even better on paper this year, and with Brandin Cooks occupying safety help, Gronk should be in a similar role as last season.
