Although drafting wide receivers early isn’t going to fade anytime soon, you’ll still need to draft running backs this summer. Just as we’ve done in looking at the wide receiver position a few weeks back, we’re going to highlight noteworthy 2015 statistical nuggets and other notes for a few running backs and how those could shape their 2016 outlook.
Lamar Miller – 12.1 Rushing Attempts Per Game
That per game mark ranked 31st in the NFL last season. Miller’s 194 total carries ranked 17th, below Rashad Jennings, Chris Johnson, Ronnie Hillman and Alfred Morris to name a few. Even in a season with a wretched, often injured backfield rotation, Texans RB1s averaged 16.2 rushing attempts per game while Miller has had 16 carries in just 12 of 61 career games to this point. Since Bill O’Brien has been in Houston, the Texans are second in total NFL rushing attempts and they were still 5th overall last year in a season in which they trailed for 50 percent of their offensive snaps while running out that rotation of talentless and injured backs. Oh, and Miller is pretty good. Only DeMarco Murray (190), LeSean McCoy (176), Matt Forte (170) and Frank Gore (169) have more runs of 5 or more yards than Miller’s 160 over the past two seasons, and all of those players have had 75-175 more rushing attempts than Miller during that span.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, player profiles, positional tiers, mock drafts, sleepers and busts, exclusive columns and plenty more, check out our Draft Guide!
Todd Gurley and Keeping Games Close
Not even a late start due to an ACL injury or the Rams’ anemic offense could prevent Gurley from a breakout rookie season. He ran for 1,106 yards in essentially 12 games and scored 10 times on the ground. In fact, Gurley didn’t even score until after the Week 6 bye, as those 10 rushing TDs led the NFL from Week 7 on. It wasn’t all good for Gurley, though, as he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry over his final eight games and was held under four yards per carry in five of them. If Gurley needs volume again to stack fantasy points, the biggest factor for that translating into fantasy success will be the Rams being able to hang around in games.
In the three games in which the Rams trailed by a touchdown or more at halftime with Gurley active, he totaled just 34 combined touches while averaging 23.2 touches per game in his other nine weeks. Keeping the Rams’ best player involved in the game was not only important for obvious reasons, but Gurley got significantly more effective as games wore on in 2015 to the point where Marshawn Lynch would be proud.
Todd Gurley Rushing Output Per Quarter in 2015
| Qtr | Att | Rank | Yards | Rank | YPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64 | 14 | 151 | 35 | 2.4 | 50 |
| 2 | 48 | 13 | 241 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | 55 | 10 | 317 | 6 | 5.8 | 7 |
| 4 | 61 | 2 | 403 | 2 | 6.6 | 4 |
Fun with Splits
DeMarco Murray was completely miscast in Chip Kelly’s system, but there were still some underlying positives to his 2015 performance. Although he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on runs behind or off tackle on 110 attempts, Murray averaged 4.6 yards on runs guard to guard last year, behind only Spencer Ware, Thomas Rawls and Adrian Peterson for all backs with 50 or more such attempts. That 1.8 yards per carry loss was the biggest difference for any running back that qualified for both fields. After Mike Mularkey took over for Ken Whisenhunt in Week 9, 56 percent of the Titans’ running back runs were run from guard to guard. Murray still has rookie Derrick Henry to contend with and Henry may shoulder the money touches near the end zone, but Murray stands to be in a much better environment for his rushing skill set this season.
I mentioned this in passing when discussing the effect Chip Kelly’s hire may have on the San Francisco offense. Kelly’s running scheme is similar to the type of system Carlos Hyde ran in college and what helped get Hyde selected in the second round of the 2014 draft. In Philadelphia, 78 percent of the Eagles’ running back runs came while the quarterback was in the shotgun or pistol. Over his first two seasons, Hyde’s rushing splits in those situations have been extremely different.
Carlos Hyde‘s Career Rushing Output Under Center vs Shotgun/Pistol
| PreSnap | Att | RuYd | YPC | RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun/Pistol | 84 | 444 | 5.3 | 4 |
| QB Under Center | 114 | 359 | 3.1 | 3 |
Hyde may still have receiving and scoring issues that cap his ceiling, but the scheme change and additions of Josh Garnett and Zane Beadles to the interior line should provide a better rushing climate to maximize Hyde’s strengths.
These Older Backs Still Have a Fantasy Pulse
Now 31 years of age, Adrian Peterson has dropped out of the top-5 running backs in terms of ADP and into the late first and early second round turn area of recent PPR drafts. That may have more to do with the backs above him now than Purple Jesus himself, but Peterson showed in 2015 that he’s not ready to slow down just yet.
Adrian Peterson‘s 2015 Rushing Ranks
| Category | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| RuATT | 327 | 1 |
| RuYd | 1485 | 1 |
| RuTD | 11 | T-1 |
| Std PPG | 14.4 | 2 |
| PPR PPG | 16.3 | 4 |
| Top-24 Weeks | 12 | T-1 |
| Top-12 Weeks | 7 | 3 |
| RuAtt from 5 and In | 16 | T-3 |
Sure, Peterson has only caught 30 and 29 passes over his last two full seasons, but even in PPR leagues, the only player to match Peterson in top-24 scoring weeks was Devonta Freeman and only Freeman and DeAngelo Williams spent more weeks in the top 12. I already highlighted that Peterson missed out on possibly scoring another four to five touchdowns, and he still posted his eighth season with double digit scores, something he’s done every year in his career outside of the 2014 season that he gave away.
Peterson also led the NFL in games with 20 or more rushing attempts (nine) and rushing yards in the 4th quarter (414 yards on 6.9 yards per carry). The Vikings added Alex Boone and Andre Smith to their offensive line and now play the NFC East and AFC South outside of their own division. Father Time is undefeated when he comes knocking, but Peterson may not be ready to answer the door just yet.
Matt Forte is also turning 31 years old this season. The thing I like most about Forte and his 2016 age-induced discount is that he has consistently been a player that has carried ancillary deficiencies and they haven’t meant anything to his bottom line in fantasy output. Forte is one of the worst runners near the goal line ever and is no longer a threat to do major damage on the ground, as he’s averaged under 70 yards rushing per game in each of the past two seasons on 16.7 carries per game. Despite those marks, he’s still been a top-12 PPR running back in every year of his career and has finished outside of the top 15 in standard leagues just once. Forte has never had a season with fewer than 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Thanks to his premier receiving skills, Forte has had just one season (2009) under 90 yards from scrimmage per game.
Even last season, Forte ranked 7th in PPR (16.5) and standard (13.1) points per game. He was a top-24 PPR scorer in 10 of his 13 games played with six in the top 12. In Chan Gailey’s open offense, players out of the backfield have caught 24.2 percent, 26.2 and 25.9 percent of the team receptions and in 2015, Bilal Powell (47), Chris Ivory (30), Zac Stacy (9) and Stevan Ridley (4) combined for 90 catches. That group of backs had one season with 30 or more receptions between them through their entire careers entering 2015, so a back like Forte should see some major work through the air. Even if Powell shaves targets off of Forte’s bottom line, I have a hard time envisioning Forte failing to hit 50 plus receptions for the seventh time in his career.
At age 32 in an offense that lost its starting quarterback for over half of the season, it’s not shocking that Frank Gore posted career-lows of 3.7 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per touch. What is surprising is that the Colts brought in relatively zero competition after Gore accounted for 79 percent of the Colts’ running back rushing attempts (third in the league) while adding 58 targets. Gore’s 294 touches last season were his most since 2011.
The last time that a back 33 years or older has rushed for 1,000 yards was John Riggins in 1984. The last running back to rush for at least 900 yards in a season was Emmitt Smith in 2004. We’ve also had just two backs of the same age or older post top-24 standard seasons over the past 20 years with three in PPR formats. Gore hasn’t missed a game since 2010, but that can equally be viewed as a negative as he’s likely been equally fortunate as well as durable since his 1,595 touches over the past five seasons are second most in the NFL.
I severely doubt Gore is a league-winning pick, but he has bankable volume while healthy and attachment to a good quarterback, so his negatives aren’t easily dismissible. Reaching into the flame is worth consideration for Gore once the 6th round hits, especially if you’ve hammered the wide receiver position thoroughly to start off drafts.
Touchdown Dependency and Inefficiency
39 percent of Jeremy Hill’s PPR points and 43 percent of his standard points stemmed solely from rushing touchdowns. That dependency was tops for all top-36 scorers on the season in both formats. He was the only back in PPR to have more than one third of his points come strictly from TDs on the ground. Over the past decade, 10 backs have leaned on rushing touchdowns to buoy their output to Hill’s degree and on average, those backs scored 4.9 fewer times on the ground the following season with six of them scoring six times or less.
Hill needed those touchdowns because his rushing efficiency just disintegrated in his sophomore season. On just one more carry than he had as a rookie, Hill ran for 330 fewer yards and caught 12 fewer passes. Hill averaged just 3.7 yards per touch, joining Melvin Gordon and Alfred Morris as the only backs to average less than four yards per touch with over 200 touches. That trio joins a group of 12 other backs to do the same since 2010 and of that group only Marshawn Lynch in 2011 improved his fantasy output and saw an increase in touches the following season.
Hill’s 2016 range of outcomes is not only fairly limited, but also at polar ends of the spectrum since he doesn’t catch passes to smooth much out, even with an injury to Giovani Bernard. Last season should’ve been a magical campaign for Hill game script wise, as Cincinnati was 10th in yards per drive (32.4 yards), 5th in points per drive (2.1) and 4th in red zone opportunities per game (3.6). Either Hill regains the efficiency he had as a rookie, or Cincinnati commits to a power run game to offset their pass-catcher losses and Hill’s volume goes way up, or he becomes the new BenJarvus Green-Ellis and is strictly tethered to short scoring opportunities for floating his fantasy output. Hill’s 2014 and the Bengals’ offensive line are good enough that I will take some bites on the former happening when Hill hits the 6th round or later, but anything before that point is off limits for me.
Depending on the Pass and the best Small Samples From 2015
44.7 percent of Theo Riddick’s PPR points solely came from receptions. That dependency on receptions alone was the second highest rate of all time for a top-24 scorer, behind only Glyn Milburn (44.8 percent) in 1994. If we open that pool of players up to top-36 scorers, it becomes the 7th highest mark, with four of those seasons coming from Larry Centers. 93.7 percent of Riddick’s PPR output stemmed from receiving alone, the 6th highest total for a top-36 scorer ever in a season.
We could live with this type of one dimensional output for fantasy if it wasn’t so dependent on specific conditions. With the Lions trailing by two or more scores in the 4th quarter, Riddick was 2nd in the NFL in targets (29) and first in receptions (22). Those specific game conditions accounted for 29.3 percent of Riddick’s seasonal target total and 25 percent of his fantasy total. When the Lions were trailing by three points or less or winning, Riddick accounted for 12.2 percent of the team targets as opposed to carrying a 20.8 percent target share when they were down by four or more points.
The Lions have whispered that they’d like to get Riddick more involved in the running game, but it’s hard to chew on that carrying a lot of truth as 46 of Riddick’s 72 career carries (63.9 percent) have gone for three yards or less. Riddick is fine as a desperation floor-play flex option when his price is egregiously low in PPR drafts, but more often than not, he’s a player I want my opponents to roster. He’ll occupy a hollow roster spot that owners won’t release while offering very minuscule week tilting power even in a best case scenario.
For a look at the backs that had the highest and lowest dependency on receiving output in 2015 among top-50 PPR backs, here are the top and bottom 10.
Running Backs That Relied on Receiving the Most and Least in 2015
| Player | PPR Rec% |
|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 93.7% |
| James White | 85.6% |
| Shane Vereen | 83.6% |
| Danny Woodhead | 78.8% |
| Duke Johnson | 76.9% |
| Charles Sims | 72.8% |
| Bilal Powell | 72.4% |
| Dion Lewis | 72.2% |
| Darren Sproles | 66.8% |
| Javorius Allen | 63.3% |
| Doug Martin | 28.5% |
| Karlos Williams | 26.2% |
| Ronnie Hillman | 21.7% |
| Adrian Peterson | 20.0% |
| Jonathan Stewart | 19.6% |
| Todd Gurley | 19.1% |
| Thomas Rawls | 17.7% |
| Jeremy Hill | 17.0% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 13.3% |
| Chris Johnson | 11.0% |
Seeing Thomas Rawls on the bottom here is a good jumping off point on the conundrum owners will face in trying to digest his small sample size of incredible production. In terms of success rates per level of run, Rawls was by and large the most effective running back in the NFL last season, especially with the added context of what Marshawn Lynch did in the same backfield.
| Player | Tm | Att | Att. For Loss | % | RB Rank | 2 Yd or Less | % | RB Rank | 5+ Yds | % | RB Rank | 10+ Yd | % | RB Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | SEA | 147 | 9 | 6.1% | 6 | 50 | 34.0% | 3 | 60 | 40.8% | 4 | 22 | 15.0% | 4 |
| Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 110 | 19 | 17.3% | 70 | 51 | 46.4% | 43 | 35 | 31.8% | 36 | 13 | 11.8% | 21 |
| RB AVERAGE | NFL | 11.2% | 45.5% | 31.8% | 10.1% |
In the six games in which Rawls logged double digit carries, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points and 118.7 yards on the ground with four touchdowns. But he also had little involvement through the air as he caught just 13 passes with no more than three targets in any game. Lynch’s four fantasy RB1 seasons in Seattle involved receiving work, as 22.6, 18.1, 28.9 and 32.3 percent of his fantasy output from 2011-2014 stemmed from the receiving game. Seeing Rawls so uninvolved in the passing game is a concern in the long run.
Following a fractured ankle with ligament damage, Rawls’ preseason status has remained ominous despite his recent encouraging self-diagnosed outlook. Seattle also has minuscule monetary investment into Rawls while using high draft capital on C.J. Prosise as the fourth running back taken in this past draft, followed by Alex Collins in the 5th round for competition. Prosise not only can aid Seattle’s offensive versatility -- compromising that we ever see Rawls used in any receiving capacity -- while either rookie is a threat to take carries if Rawls misses most or all of the preseason, creating a potential mess for fantasy owners. Rawls was targeted on just 11.8 percent of his pass routes last year, which ranked 74th at the position and in the area of Isaiah Crowell and Jeremy Hill. Rawls stands to be a high reward and risk option heading into the season, but without a receiving floor in his pocket even with a starting job, he’s an investment I can’t make until he becomes extremely low hanging fruit.
Dion Lewis is also on the top portion of passing game dependency and with James White’s inclusion, you can see the impact that role in New England’s offense has on scoring output. Even throwing out Week 1 when he was the Patriots’ sole, primary back with LeGarrette Blount on suspension, Lewis was on pace for 1,300 total yards in games with Blount active. Even in leagues without reception juice, Lewis was a top-15 scorer in four of those six weeks. The rub is that Lewis’ 115 target pace could be compromised with New England adding Martellus Bennett as an intermediate option to go with any other snaps and targets that Chris Hogan may find. Even the slightest volume loss is concerning for Lewis because he may not offer much touchdown upside. Just two of Lewis’ 50 targets and just one of his 36 receptions came from the 10-yard line and in last season, and he had just one carry from the 5-yard line and in. If Lewis’ targets and touchdowns are in question, that makes him a risky selection over similar backs such as Giovani Bernard, Duke Johnson and Danny Woodhead, even with his attachment to the Patriot offense.
David Johnson was perhaps the best small sample running back as he aided owners to fantasy titles once Chris Johnson was lost for the season in Week 11. David led all qualifying running backs in rushing points per carry (.85) and receiving points per reception (1.94). Johnson also set a franchise rookie record with 13 touchdowns, 12 of which were offensive scores. Those 12 touchdowns put him in some lofty company for touchdowns-per-touch rate ever in an NFL season.
RB That Have Scored on Greater Than Seven Percent of 150 Plus Touches
| Player | Year | OffTD | Touches | TD% | N+PPR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 2006 | 16 | 158 | 10.1% | 8 |
| Pete Banaszak | 1975 | 16 | 197 | 8.1% | 10 |
| Marshall Faulk | 2000 | 26 | 334 | 7.8% | 1 |
| LaDanian Tomlinson | 2006 | 31 | 404 | 7.7% | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2008 | 12 | 160 | 7.5% | 18 |
| David Johnson | 2015 | 12 | 161 | 7.5% | TBD |
| Wendell Tyler | 1982 | 13 | 175 | 7.4% | 29 |
| LenDale White | 2008 | 15 | 205 | 7.3% | 80 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2005 | 28 | 385 | 7.3% | 33 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2003 | 11 | 154 | 7.1% | 7 |
| Horace Ivory | 1978 | 11 | 155 | 7.1% | 45 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2006 | 15 | 212 | 7.1% | 11 |
| Marcus Allen | 1982 | 14 | 198 | 7.1% | 5 |
Johnson joins a proverbial “who’s who?” of elite do-it-all fantasy backs. While Faulk and Tomlinson had their high scoring seasons in unison with a surplus of volume, we also see similar small sample results that were early signs of breakout from backs that didn’t have a full-time role yet in Westbrook, Jones-Drew and Allen. Since Johnson doesn’t project to just be a bit player, his rookie season efficiency could just be the tipping point of what will be a fantasy tycoon. Seven of the other 12 backs here notched a top-12 scoring fantasy season the year after. Even if Johnson “only” garners the rumored 60 percent of Arizona’s backfield touches, that’s a mark that would’ve given him 282 touches in 2015, which would’ve ranked 5th in the league. While dissecting Johnson’s small sample as it pertains to his fantasy outlook, it may just come down to not overcomplicating matters that he’s one of the most athletic players in the league, a great receiver, and in one of the league’s best offenses, and so we should draft him confidently based on those factors.
